The incoming Biden administration intend to stop holding half of the COVID vaccine doses in order to get more shots into arms more quickly. They argue people would still be able to get 2nd doses on schedule—withholding so many doses is merely slowing distribution. Any college-level math, business administration, or actuarial science student could easily prove they are correct. There is no need to withhold so many doses when new doses are arriving daily. By distributing doses earlier, you speed up administration so that the last doses arriving this summer are 2nd doses, not first doses.
Since we are currently in the middle of an intense surge, it is imperative to speed up vaccine administration in every way possible. And math supports this strategy.
current strategy—60 million doses arrive, we distribute 30 million, hold 30 million for a month. But because shots don’t magically go into arms immediately, well over half of doses are sitting on shelves (about 2/3 are).
If you instead distribute 54 million right now (and save 10% to be safe), states can start administering many more doses now (they’ll need funding, too, of course). Before there’s any risk of running out of doses, more will arrive. There’s no reality where 54 million actually get into arms right now. The point is: you allow states to increase administration and start pushing down hospitalizations and deaths.
That will save lives.