Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[ToTBellHop]

They still have a purchase agreement with AstraZeneca for a bunch as well. Just need all of it delivered and in arms

I’m ignoring purchase agreements for vaccines that aren’t approved. There’s already too much vaccine mistrust and AZ has been shady. Ideally we get enough vaccine without them. JnJ would do it.

Honestly, we are a wealthy nation. We can afford the $40 shots. Let AZ work out the kinks and use their $4 vaccine for less wealthy nations. We don’t need to be greedy and take everything. It seems the AZ shot, in the end, will be fine. They are just rushing things to get in on all the money. The last thing certain Americans need is a legitimately rushed vaccine on the market. There’s no question that AZ does not yet know correct dosage and they want approval anyway. Shame on the UK for indulging them and playing games with the administration interval for the Pfizer vaccine without actually testing their new interval.

 

[GoofGoof]

I examined this more closely--it’s legitimate. I presume this story hasn’t gone wide because it’s a holiday week.

Original DoD contract dated 8/9/20 purchased 100,000,000 doses for $1.525 billion https://contracts.justia.com/companies/moderna-inc-5634/contract/135568/

Amended 12/28/20 purchasing a further 100,000,000 doses for $1.966 billion https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2457857/?source=content_type:react|first_level_url:news|section:main_content|button:body_link

Separate purchase of 100,000,000 doses on 12/11/20 for $1.68 billion (widely reported)

300,000,000 doses from Moderna by June 30 purchased for $5.17 billion
200,000,000 doses from Pfizer by July 31 purchased for $3.9 billion

Excellent news. I do think it makes perfect sense since the US government has way more of a stake in the Moderna and more control that they can get more doses by June.

Assuming JnJ comes back positive the US has 100M doses coming from them with an option to buy more too. That would officially get us to enough doses for 350M people or more than 100% of the population and we would be done before the end of June.

They still have a purchase agreement with AstraZeneca for a bunch as well. Just need all of it delivered and in arms

Yes, they need to ramp up on injections now. I still think once there Is no shortage of doses they will be able to ramp up a lot faster. Part of the problem now is that you need to hold back some doses for the 2nd shot in case the deliveries don’t come as expected. Once you establish that reserve in theory you just use all the doses you get going forward. Plus I also think once its open to anyone they just do it at CVS or Walgreens or Walmart. It will be easier to ramp up.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Excellent news. I do think it makes perfect sense since the US government has way more of a stake in the Moderna and more control that they can get more doses by June.

Assuming JnJ comes back positive the US has 100M doses coming from them with an option to buy more too. That would officially get us to enough doses for 350M people or more than 100% of the population and we would be done before the end of June.

Yes, they need to ramp up on injections now. I still think once there Is no shortage of doses they will be able to ramp up a lot faster. Part of the problem now is that you need to hold back some doses for the 2nd shot in case the deliveries don’t come as expected. Once you establish that reserve in theory you just use all the doses you get going forward. Plus I also think once its open to anyone they just do it at CVS or Walgreens or Walmart. It will be easier to ramp up.

And once there are multiple adults watching over the process...

That’s the silver lining for me. For all the incompetence of the current administration, at least they‘ve bought vaccinations. I’d rather have vaccinations as a new administration arrives to oversee the actual inoculations than to not have adequate vaccinations available.

 

[JoeCamel]

Yes, they need to ramp up on injections now. I still think once there Is no shortage of doses they will be able to ramp up a lot faster. Part of the problem now is that you need to hold back some doses for the 2nd shot in case the deliveries don’t come as expected. Once you establish that reserve in theory you just use all the doses you get going forward. Plus I also think once its open to anyone they just do it at CVS or Walgreens or Walmart. It will be easier to ramp up.

The run for vaccine is like the run on TP but this has a little more serious consequence of missing out. They will store the unused stuff next to all the hydroxychloroquine they stockpiled once the run is over.

 

[GoofGoof]

And once there are multiple adults watching over the process...

That’s the silver lining for me. For all the incompetence of the current administration, at least they‘ve bought vaccinations. I’d rather have vaccinations as a new administration arrives to oversee the actual inoculations than to not have adequate vaccinations available.

Yes, I’d much rather see delays in vaccinations vs delays in manufacturing or shipping. We can ramp up vaccinations as long as the doses keep coming. There’s not much anyone in the public or even the government can do if there are manufacturing issues. We are at the mercy of these companies. Thankfully they are very good at making drugs and selling them for as much profit as possible so that manufacturing efficiency is a huge benefit for society.

 

[GoofGoof]

Updated vaccination numbers:


So we hit a little over 20% of our target of 20M vaccinated in 2020. It’s not a great start but we have time to improve.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Updated vaccination numbers:

View attachment 521759
So we hit a little over 20% of our target of 20M vaccinated in 2020. It’s not a great start but we have time to improve.

To be fair, I believe the original intent was to distribute 20m by year’s end. It was never reasonable to administer 20m.

So they hit 65% of their target. A grade of D. That’s par for the course. We were foolish if we expected more.

About 1.5 million administered the last 3 days, so we’ve risen from 200k/day to 500k. So that’s an improvement. Still need to quadruple that.

 

[GoofGoof]

To be fair, I believe the original intent was to distribute 20m by year’s end. It was never reasonable to administer 20m.

So they hit 65% of their target. A grade of D. That’s par for the course. We were foolish if we expected more.

About 1.5 million administered the last 3 days, so we’ve risen from 200k/day to 500k. So that’s an improvement. Still need to quadruple that.

As recently as the beginning of December the Warp Speed guys were still saying 20M vaccinated in Dec, 30M in Jan and 50M in Feb with the remaining 50M 2nd shots coming in March to get to a total of 100M people fully vaccinated by the end of March and also to use all 200M doses they expected to receive from Pfizer and Moderna in Q1. I do think we can still ramp up to that level and catch up. That would represent 30% of the US population in Q1.

I think they always perceived the limits being from the manufacturing side not with vaccinations. The 100M was being limited because that’s all the vaccine we would have. If JnJ comes online in Feb the expectation is we could double that number to 200M+ people (60% of the population) by the end of April and we also start receiving the 300M additional doses of Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q2.

Logistically speaking there are only 90 days until the end of March so if we wanted to reach 100M we would need 96M more people to go or an average of over 2M shots a day since everyone gets 2. If we get JnJ approved and want to get to 200M by the end of April that‘s 100M more shots over 90 days so 1.1M more per day. In other words to get to 200M people vaccinated by end of April we need to ramp up to over 3 million shots a day by February. That’s a lot of shots. It’s only possible if they launch large scale vaccine centers where thousands or even 10s of thousands of shots are administered daily.

 

[danlb_2000]

As recently as the beginning of December the Warp Speed guys were still saying 20M vaccinated in Dec, 30M in Jan and 50M in Feb with the remaining 50M 2nd shots coming in March to get to a total of 100M people fully vaccinated by the end of March and also to use all 200M doses they expected to receive from Pfizer and Moderna in Q1. I do think we can still ramp up to that level and catch up. That would represent 30% of the US population in Q1.

I think they always perceived the limits being from the manufacturing side not with vaccinations. The 100M was being limited because that’s all the vaccine we would have. If JnJ comes online in Feb the expectation is we could double that number to 200M+ people (60% of the population) by the end of April and we also start receiving the 300M additional doses of Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q2.

Logistically speaking there are only 90 days until the end of March so if we wanted to reach 100M we would need 96M more people to go or an average of over 2M shots a day since everyone gets 2. If we get JnJ approved and want to get to 200M by the end of April that‘s 100M more shots over 90 days so 1.1M more per day. In other words to get to 200M people vaccinated by end of April we need to ramp up to over 3 million shots a day by February. That’s a lot of shots. It’s only possible if they launch large scale vaccine centers where thousands or even 10s of thousands of shots are administered daily.

I have seen some sites that show a count of vaccinations, but have you seen a site with a graph of vaccinations over time? This would be useful to see how much the rate is increasing over time.

 

[GoofGoof]

I have seen some sites that show a count of vaccinations, but have you seen a site with a graph of vaccinations over time? This would be useful to see how much the rate is increasing over time.

Not at the National level. The CDC page just shows totals. @DCBaker posts the FL one in the other thread which has vaccinations by date for FL and PA has this graph on their site:



Here’s the CDC federal vaccine tracker:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[GoofGoof]

Not sure how I feel about this plan. They are apparently looking into using a half dose of the Moderna vaccine instead of the full dose to be able to get twice as many people vaccinated. I want this to go as quickly as possible but not at the expense of it being effective. Tough call. If none of the other vaccine candidates works out maybe that’s plan B.

U.S. may cut some Moderna vaccine doses in half to speed rollout, official says

The U.S. government is considering giving some people half the dose of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in order to speed vaccinations, a federal official said on Sunday. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine program, said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that officials were in...

www.yahoo.com

 

[ToTBellHop]

Not sure how I feel about this plan. They are apparently looking into using a half dose of the Moderna vaccine instead of the full dose to be able to get twice as many people vaccinated. I want this to go as quickly as possible but not at the expense of it being effective. Tough call. If none of the other vaccine candidates works out maybe that’s plan B.

U.S. may cut some Moderna vaccine doses in half to speed rollout, official says

The U.S. government is considering giving some people half the dose of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in order to speed vaccinations, a federal official said on Sunday. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine program, said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that officials were in...

www.yahoo.com

I just posted this too. I’d wait to hear from Moderna on this. It’s certainly possible younger adults could generate an adequate response with a smaller injection but I wasn’t aware they actually tested this.

Fauci seemed to suggest they HAVEN’T examined this and Slaoui is just blowing smoke.

At the end of the day, the singular focus right now should be vaccine going into arms. First the UK’s move to delay dose 2 and now this show the unfortunate role politics is playing in science. You follow the dosage schedule examined in Phase 3 trials. If you want to change the schedule, you do another Phase 3.

 

[danlb_2000]

Not sure how I feel about this plan. They are apparently looking into using a half dose of the Moderna vaccine instead of the full dose to be able to get twice as many people vaccinated. I want this to go as quickly as possible but not at the expense of it being effective. Tough call. If none of the other vaccine candidates works out maybe that’s plan B.

U.S. may cut some Moderna vaccine doses in half to speed rollout, official says

The U.S. government is considering giving some people half the dose of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in order to speed vaccinations, a federal official said on Sunday. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine program, said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that officials were in...

www.yahoo.com

Sort of irrelevant at the moment since supply isn't our current problem. With that said, once distribution catches up with supply this might have merit. I was listening to a video about the UK's plans to increase the time between the first and second doses. The basic idea there is that the situation is so bad that instead of focusing on dosages that will prevent people from getting sick, we should instead focus on dosages that just prevent people from getting really sick and needing hospitalization.

 

[GoofGoof]

Sort of irrelevant at the moment since supply isn't our current problem. With that said, once distribution catches up with supply this might have merit. I was listening to a video about the UK's plans to increase the time between the first and second doses. The basic idea there is that the situation is so bad that instead of focusing on dosages that will prevent people from getting sick, we should instead focus on dosages that just prevent people from getting really sick and needing hospitalization.

They do have some data from the earlier stage trial where they tried different doses. If it’s really not much more effective it may be worth it. I just wouldn’t want to see efficacy drop from 95% to something like 70% to get more doses. If it goes from 95% to 90% then probably worth it. It should in theory also result in less adverse reactions or less severe ones in some cases.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Sort of irrelevant at the moment since supply isn't our current problem. With that said, once distribution catches up with supply this might have merit. I was listening to a video about the UK's plans to increase the time between the first and second doses. The basic idea there is that the situation is so bad that instead of focusing on dosages that will prevent people from getting sick, we should instead focus on dosages that just prevent people from getting really sick and needing hospitalization.

Sure...and we give up on herd immunity? You get one shot to do this right. There will never be more pressure on people to get vaccinated. If a bunch of people don’t receive the vaccine appropriately and many still get sick, many others will skip the shot altogether.

Do this the right way!

 

[danlb_2000]

They do have some data from the earlier stage trial where they tried different doses. If it’s really not much more effective it may be worth it. I just wouldn’t want to see efficacy drop from 95% to something like 70% to get more doses. If it goes from 95% to 90% then probably worth it. It should in theory also result in less adverse reactions or less severe ones in some cases.

Efficacy is defined as people not getting sick, which in an ideal world is what we want. But if at 70% efficacy, we still don't have people getting seriously ill or hospitalized, it may be worth it to save lives.

Sure...and we give up on herd immunity? You get one shot to do this right. There will never be more pressure on people to get vaccinated. If a bunch of people don’t receive the vaccine appropriately and many still get sick, many others will skip the shot altogether.

Do this the right way!

I doesn't mean giving up herd immunity. In the UK plan, the second dose should still get people to the highest level of immunity, it would just a leave a longer window of time between the first and second doses where people could become mildly ill.

Your concern about people not taking it is valid, but that has to be weighed against how many lives could be saved by doing it this way. I am not advocating this alternate approach, but there is merit in looking at it.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Efficacy is defined as people not getting sick, which in an ideal world is what we want. But if at 70% efficacy, we still don't have people getting seriously ill or hospitalized, it may be worth it to save lives.



I doesn't mean giving up herd immunity. In the UK plan, the second dose should still get people to the highest level of immunity, it would just a leave a longer window of time between the first and second doses where people could become mildly ill.

Your concern about people not taking it is valid, but that has to be weighed against how many lives could be saved by doing it this way. I am not advocating this alternate approach, but there is merit in looking at it.

The UK is using an untested schedule. That is simply not how this is done. We do not know what the efficacy will be. And getting people back for a 2nd dose at some unspecified date will be difficult.

People offering their arms should be rewarded with 95% efficacy, not some lower level because the government gave them half a dose or held off on a full dose against the vaccine manufacturer’s advise. That will be extremely harmful to public trust, a significant obstacle to overcome as it is.

 

[correcaminos]

The UK is using an untested schedule. That is simply not how this is done. We do not know what the efficacy will be. And getting people back for a 2nd dose at some unspecified date will be difficult.

People offering their arms should be rewarded with 95% efficacy, not some lower level because the government gave them half a dose or held off on a full dose against the vaccine manufacturer’s advise. That will be extremely harmful to public trust, a significant obstacle to overcome as it is.

A half dose I am not as okay with as those saying your second dose might be delayed a little. There is no issue in getting a dose later than recommended. At least last I read.

We are running into issues of getting people vaccinated. I spent about 3.5 hours trying to get my MIL an appointment. The site crashed. The lines were busy etc. It was a mess. We really are having to choose who might be safe or not and that's tough. UK numbers are bad so I get why they are desperate

 

[nickys]

A half dose I am not as okay with as those saying your second dose might be delayed a little. There is no issue in getting a dose later than recommended. At least last I read.

We are running into issues of getting people vaccinated. I spent about 3.5 hours trying to get my MIL an appointment. The site crashed. The lines were busy etc. It was a mess. We really are having to choose who might be safe or not and that's tough. UK numbers are bad so I get why they are desperate

Pfizer have now put out a statement saying they cannot guarantee that the first shot will provide immunity beyond the 42 day limit (21 is the ideal). I think the government will be forced into a u-turn after a public statement like that.

And we are in a mess. England has seen a 50% rise in patients hospitalised in just 6 days. There are currently now on average 2,550 new coronavirus admissions every day; this is compared to 1,327 on 5 November. Here in Scotland they predict we have 4 weeks before the hospitals are full at the current rate, which is how long our lockdown will last initially.

 

[correcaminos]

Pfizer have now put out a statement saying they cannot guarantee that the first shot will provide immunity beyond the 42 day limit (21 is the ideal). I think the government will be forced into a u-turn after a public statement like that.

And we are in a mess. England has seen a 50% rise in patients hospitalised in just 6 days. There are currently now on average 2,550 new coronavirus admissions every day; this is compared to 1,327 on 5 November. Here in Scotland they predict we have 4 weeks before the hospitals are full at the current rate, which is how long our lockdown will last initially.

Missed that one. I spent the morning trying to get an appointment for my MIL to be vaccinated. Worse than any Moonlight magic day or getting Hamilton Tickets to be honest. My brain is mush lol. I thought I had read differently previously. Then yes this is bad.

I was talking with friends in the UK (closer to London) about how bad it was. Hopefully restrictions will help. It was horrible here in my county mid-Nov and even with our Thanksgiving, Winter holidays, and so far NYE our numbers have been dropping. Hope the same for you all. They had to divert non-covid patients to cancer hospitals even for a while. We're still teetering on the good/bad balance.