Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[orky8]

Eell the wording from Demings for removing mask requirements was:

Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below. All mandates are lifted.

So what exactly does AND/OR mean? Logic would say that condition cannot exist.

It seems the ambiguity may have been deliberate to speed things up or slow things down. May be the later here.

He also mentioned achieving the Phase 3 by July. I'm doubting he is expecting to get there this week.

“And/or” means “either or both.”

A and/or B means either A or B or A and B. For example, we will go to the store and/or park means we will go the store or the park or both the store and the park.

In the Phase 3 context “or” would have been sufficient grammar wise if the the condition is triggering, meaning we go the phase 3 as soon as a condition is met. If the mayor intends to retain discretion, then it means he’ll go to phase 3 upon one or maybe both conditions being met, depending on how he decides.

 

[Archie123]

Same. Greasy slimy donuts served warm? It makes you just feel gross eating one

Someone has no taste.

Slimy lol.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Yup. Six Flags still has mask rules still....dang it...I hope Great Adventure will change mask rules by end of the month or early next month in NJ....

 

[SamusAranX]

Krispy Kreme (when hot and fresh) is lit

 

[Wild Mister Toad]

This is why you can’t just add naturally immune to vaccinated. You are counting many people twice. There’s no good metric to say how many naturally infected people there are and also no good way of knowing how many naturally infected people got the vaccine too. Based on reported cases 10% of the population was naturally infected. Due to lack of testing in the beginning and also asymptomatic cases the assumption is that number is probably double. We are at 60% of all adults with at least 1 dose so I would assume some level of vaccination among naturally infected people that is lower, maybe as much as 10% lower. So if 20% of the population was naturally infected and half the people infected got the vaccine that means 10% of the population is naturally immune and not vaccinated. If the naturally infected number is as high as 30% instead of 20% then 15% gets added to the vaccinated number.

One more twist is the vaccines are not 100% effective so when counting number of people immune if 60% of adults are vaccinated with a 95% effective vaccine that’s 57% immune plus the 10-15% for the unvaccinated people who are naturally immune. So 67-72% of adults immune. But full immunity is 2 weeks past the 2nd shot so you have to wait 3-4 more weeks.

95% efficacy does not mean 5% of the vaccinated will catch Covid. It reduces the risk by 95%. If your individual risk was 10%, it is now 0.5%. In addition, if you do catch Covid after having the vaccine, per the Israeli study, your risk of severe Covid drops by 90% and death by 98%.
So far, it seems that once vaccinations get over 30% (40-50% including naturally infected), the rate of growth falls off a cliff. That is a good thing

 

[Chi84]

Good article that covers some of what is being discussed here.

Opinion | The CDC’s critics are wrong. The agency was right to relax indoor masking. — The Washington Post

The signs are unmistakable; the vaccines are having an extraordinary effect.

apple.news

 

[GoofGoof]

95% efficacy does not mean 5% of the vaccinated will catch Covid. It reduces the risk by 95%. If your individual risk was 10%, it is now 0.5%. In addition, if you do catch Covid after having the vaccine, per the Israeli study, your risk of severe Covid drops by 90% and death by 98%.
So far, it seems that once vaccinations get over 30% (40-50% including naturally infected), the rate of growth falls off a cliff. That is a good thing

I didn’t say 5% would catch Covid. I said 5% are not immune. Obviously not everyone who is not immune will catch Covid or we would have all had it already

The vaccines are very effective but MI, NY, NJ and PA all had surges recently despite vaccination rates above 30%. We need a higher rate than that. Crossing 50% of the total population vaccinated seems to be a pretty good start.

 

[Jlwise2021]

Yes! You are correct that “and/or” means either condition can be met in order to move to Phase 3. Since the rolling 14-day average is under 5%, Phase 3 conditions have now been met, and I fully expect the mayor of Orange County to remove all restrictions tomorrow at the presser. Otherwise, he would not be following the guidance he set. Once all restrictions are removed, individuals and businesses may still do as they please. However, I think the businesses will follow the guidance since they helped construct the phases. Disney may wait, or they may not.

A and/or B means either A or B or A and B. For example, we will go to the store and/or park means we will go the store or the park or both the store and the park.

In the Phase 3 context “or” would have been sufficient grammar wise if the the condition is triggering, meaning we go the phase 3 as soon as a condition is met. If the mayor intends to retain discretion, then it means he’ll go to phase 3 upon one or maybe both conditions being met, depending on how he decides.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes! You are correct that “and/or” means either condition can be met in order to move to Phase 3. Since the rolling 14-day average is under 5%, Phase 3 conditions have now been met, and I fully expect the mayor of Orange County to remove all restrictions tomorrow at the presser. Otherwise, he would not be following the guidance he set. Once all restrictions are removed, individuals and businesses may still do as they please. However, I think the businesses will follow the guidance since they helped construct the phases. Disney may wait, or they may not.

One thing that seems odd to me is if the Mayor intended to go to phase 3 based on percent positive immediately upon reaching the 5% target why bother to formally move to phase 2 only 4 days ago when it was obvious that phase 3 would come within days? Why not just wait and go straight to phase 3? Businesses spent time and money updating signage and rewriting policy only to have it change less than a week later. Seems like a waste of time.

 

[Nickp1983]

One thing that seems odd to me is if the Mayor intended to go to phase 3 based on percent positive immediately upon reaching the 5% target why bother to formally move to phase 2 only 4 days ago when it was obvious that phase 3 would come within days? Why not just wait and go straight to phase 3? Businesses spent time and money updating signage and rewriting policy only to have it change less than a week later. Seems like a waste of time.

Get that economy moving. FastSigns needs money too

 

[GoofGoof]

Get that economy moving. FastSigns needs money too

Good for FastSigns....bad for Disney or Universal. I don’t even know how many new signs they were able to break out in less than 4 days. It just seems to me that if the plan is for the county to go to phase 3 immediately now and anyone who was following knew that would be the case very soon then if you are Disney or Universal why bother to make a change based on phase 2 at all knowing it would end in less than a week.

 

[Jlwise2021]

Also, Disney didn’t exactly go “over the top” with their new signage. It was pretty basic to be honest and looks very temporary to me. ‍♀Also, the Mayor wanted to move to each Phase as the county hit it, so holding back on meeting Phase 2 until Phase 3 happened wouldn’t have worked.

 

[GoofGoof]

Also, Disney didn’t exactly go “over the top” with their new signage. It was pretty basic to be honest and looks very temporary to me. ‍♀Also, the Mayor wanted to move to each Phase as the county hit it, so holding back on meeting Phase 2 until Phase 3 happened wouldn’t have worked.

It would have been pretty easy to just delay the press conference to today and announce they hit 50% vaccinated and under 5% percent positive so going straight to phase 3. Even if the Mayor wanted to take his victory lap at moving to phase 2 at 50% vaccinated and wait on a phase 3 announcement until this week, if the businesses knew that was the plan why would they bother to change their policies for less than a week. We all knew last Thursday the 5% mark would be hit this week. I have no idea what Disney or Universal or anyone else will do but if they do change again that fast it will be a pretty odd move.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I'm sure Demings doesn't want to go to Phase 3 immediately but that's only my guess. July seems to line up with what the president has been saying. Maybe we'll have July fireworks after all?

 

[DisneyCane]

Yes! You are correct that “and/or” means either condition can be met in order to move to Phase 3. Since the rolling 14-day average is under 5%, Phase 3 conditions have now been met, and I fully expect the mayor of Orange County to remove all restrictions tomorrow at the presser. Otherwise, he would not be following the guidance he set. Once all restrictions are removed, individuals and businesses may still do as they please. However, I think the businesses will follow the guidance since they helped construct the phases. Disney may wait, or they may not.

What restrictions? There are no restrictions. There's only what there would have been if counties were still allowed to have restrictions. Disney is following what they would have been, likely so they have cover to remove everything once Orange County's non-existent phase 3 is triggered.

 

[seascape]

According to the NY Times the US has made it down to 9 cases per 100,000. Of course that is due to rounding down as we fell below 9.5. Hopefully, yesterday was the last day they will ever report the US in double digits. Even better, Colorado, the new worst state is down to 19. So no state is over 20 and only 15 are 11 or more. Every other state, Washington DC and US territory are now 10 or less. Unfortunately, Florida is still at 14 but with an average of 3,060 is going to fall under 3,000 today.

The next goal I want to see is for the country is to get down to 5. That is not as hard as it sounds because California and Oklahoma are already at 3, and NJ, Nebraska and Virginia are at 5. Additionally, the US has had 4 consecutive days of under 30,000 cases and last Wednesday and Thursday had a combined 80,000 cases. Therefore, if we keep reporting less that 30,000 cases we will see a drop of over 10% in cases a day in just 2 days.

We are almost there and we all can taste it. We just need to follow through on the basic heath standards we have all learned. Wash your hands and stay out of others personal space, 3 feet. We will not only beat Covid19 but also make future flu seasons like this past years, nothing to worry about!

 

[Lilofan]

According to the NY Times the US has made it down to 9 cases per 100,000. Of course that is due to rounding down as we fell below 9.5. Hopefully, yesterday was the last day they will ever report the US in double digits. Even better, Colorado, the new worst state is down to 19. So no state is over 20 and only 15 are 11 or more. Every other state, Washington DC and US territory are now 10 or less. Unfortunately, Florida is still at 14 but with an average of 3,060 is going to fall under 3,000 today.

The next goal I want to see is for the country is to get down to 5. That is not as hard as it sounds because California and Oklahoma are already at 3, and NJ, Nebraska and Virginia are at 5. Additionally, the US has had 4 consecutive days of under 30,000 cases and last Wednesday and Thursday had a combined 80,000 cases. Therefore, if we keep reporting less that 30,000 cases we will see a drop of over 10% in cases a day in just 2 days.

We are almost there and we all can taste it. We just need to follow through on the basic heath standards we have all learned. Wash your hands and stay out of others personal space, 3 feet. We will not only beat Covid19 but also make future flu seasons like this past years, nothing to worry about!

It is common sense that this year's past flu season attributed to many wearing masks.

 

[ElvisMickey]

Voodoo donuts is offering a free donut per vaccine. If OC doesn't get up to 99%... humanity is dead to me.

I really don’t understand these types of silly incentives. Like, if you’re someone who doesn’t want to get the vaccine for whatever reason, are you really going to change your mind over a free doughnut? I appreciate the gesture, but…

 

[seascape]

It is common sense that this year's past flu season attributed to many wearing masks.

Wearing a mask during fly season while grocery shopping in the future and while picking up prescriptions anytime is a good thing to continue into the future. I know I will and I will encourage others to follow such a simple and painless thing. I never want to see another epidemic like we have experienced and following basic good health habits is easy. Will this prevent another epidemic alone? No but it will help and if everyone stayed home when they are sick we could prevent thousands of deaths a year.

 

[correcaminos]

I really don’t understand these types of silly incentives. Like, if you’re someone who doesn’t want to get the vaccine for whatever reason, are you really going to change your mind over a free doughnut? I appreciate the gesture, but…

1 donut a day.... so could be many

But I get it and agree. Incentives should be bigger than that to work