Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[dfisher9]

Agreed at 70% vaccinated. 50% is hit or miss. We had about 50% of adults vaccinated in my county and then had a spike in cases. Not a huge spike and shorter than past ones, but our percent positive went above 5% for a period of time.

But Montco didn't hit 50% of adults until mid-April, which is right before the reduction in cases kicked in. For % positive, you may be right in went up a little; the county dashboard for % positive is the opposite of user friendly.

 

[disneygeek90]

It is going to be a long hot June at WDW.

As is every June at WDW.

 

[Wild Mister Toad]

But Montco didn't hit 50% of adults until mid-April, which is right before the reduction in cases kicked in. For % positive, you may be right in went up a little; the county dashboard for % positive is the opposite of user friendly.

50% vaccinated + 20-30% "naturally" vaccinated gets to the 70% number, which is why the cases are down and likely to stay down. Another study came out today that showed the naturally acquired immune response is as protective as the vaccine response.

 

[disneygeek90]

50% vaccinated + 20-30% "naturally" vaccinated gets to the 70% number, which is why the cases are down and likely to stay down. Another study came out today that showed the naturally acquired immune response is as protective as the vaccine response.

Source? I thought it was being generally understood that the vaccines offer great protection against variants which may not be the case with natural immunity, and natural immunity time frame is unknown.

 

[Jlwise2021]

Certainly, I don’t know what Disney will decide to do, but I watched the presser when the phases were discussed, and the “and/or” means both conditions are met “OR” one condition at least is met. I don’t think the mayor can go back on guidelines he made, and again, Disney is separate and can do what they please. We will see for sure tomorrow though, so that will still be interesting. I do remember that they weren’t positive they could even get to 70%, which is why they had an “or” condition to be met that still gave them confidence that the situation was better.

“The order spells out three phases, beginning now with phase 1 and concluding when 70% of Orange County’s 16-older residents has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine or when the county’s 14-day rolling positivity rate falls to 5% or below.”

 

[SamusAranX]

Texas likely has a high undocumented number of previous infections. I know a lot of people here who had Covid that didn't bother getting tested, which is in line with our (rightfully) laissez-faire attitude towards Covid.

No offense but that's anecdotal and speculative.

 

[Wild Mister Toad]

Source? I thought it was being generally understood that the vaccines offer great protection against variants which may not be the case with natural immunity, and natural immunity time frame is unknown.

Researchers show neutralizing antibodies correlate with COVID protection

Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates.

arstechnica.com

To be safe, I did get the vaccine after having Covid

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

NPR has a very interesting article today about herd immunity and how we’ve become too focused on the vaccination rates.

It's Time For America's Fixation On Herd Immunity To End, Scientists Say

Researchers say the herd immunity threshold isn't the right finish line to end the pandemic. Instead, the public should just focus on getting as many people vaccinated as possible.

www.npr.org

I’m fascinated by the hesitancy to get the vaccine, two of my best friends who have been on the fence about getting the vaccine got Covid a couple weeks ago, fortunately they’ve both recovered but the wife is still worried about the vaccine and says now that she has natural antibodies she sees no need, the husband on the other hand said he’s getting the vaccine as soon as he’s able to 30 days from his negative test.

One more joining the vax crowd at least, it may not happen as fast as we’d like but I think more and more people will jump on the vaccine train as time goes on.

 

[Wild Mister Toad]

No offense but that's anecdotal and speculative.

None taken, speculation is part of the scientific method as are anecdotes.
With the vaccine plus infection rate reaching 45-50% of Texans, the continued decline in infection rates points to a gap.
A prudent explanation would be a large number of undocumented cases to account for that gap

 

[DisneyCane]

They aren’t close on the 70% vaccinated target. They just passed 50% last week. I would imagine 70% will take into June or maybe even July and I think that’s why they left the percent positive loophole. I’d be curious to see what the Mayor says the trigger is to go back to phase 2 if percent positive goes back up. Could be an ugly scone if they drop masks now, cases rise triggering an increase in percent positive and the masks are back by July 4.

I'm not sure they'll reach 70% ever. Broward is at 57.4% of adults (as of the Mayor's email yesterday) and is a "deep blue" county with an older skewed population (though not as skewed as palm beach). When county level emergency measures were a thing, Broward was using 65% of adults vaccinated as the target for full removal of restrictions.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Doesn't say if that's one or two doses. Canada's at 46%+ of total population today with at least one.




But also this is now allowed, but you can't, say, go to WDW after you get that dose before coming home...

 

[Patcheslee]

Maybe the intent of the "and/or" was to give the county some flexibility instead of adding another condition. Like 60% vaccinated with 14 day average below 5% positivity. Their plan A is 70%, but if numbers dwindle, a lower threshold with low positivity could trigger plan B. What daily percentage of increase are they seeing in vaccinations started or J&J? The current pace I think had them 33days from reaching 70% without the 12-15yos. We know there's been a slow decline, so unless he suddenly decides the 12-15 ages will be included, it may be a long time.

 

[Patcheslee]

And where did the blog get a report for JUST Orange County?

 

[Nickp1983]

Maybe the intent of the "and/or" was to give the county some flexibility instead of adding another condition. Like 60% vaccinated with 14 day average below 5% positivity. Their plan A is 70%, but if numbers dwindle, a lower threshold with low positivity could trigger plan B. What daily percentage of increase are they seeing in vaccinations started or J&J? The current pace I think had them 33days from reaching 70% without the 12-15yos. We know there's been a slow decline, so unless he suddenly decides the 12-15 ages will be included, it may be a long time.

I think it's fair to say that is probably 100% the case.

 

[Nickp1983]

And where did the blog get a report for JUST Orange County?

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

ocfl.maps.arcgis.com

 

[correcaminos]

Oh he's back to annoying everyone.

Glad he is recovering. Wish him all the best!

 

[Jlwise2021]

That Mickey blog says, “Data from the Florida Department of Health shows that Orange County now has a 14-day rolling positivity rate of 4.44% – under the threshold of 5% set forth by the mayor to qualify Orange County to lift all mandates for mask wearing and physical distancing.”

 

[DCBaker]

And where did the blog get a report for JUST Orange County?

The FDOH publishes a daily county report - for example, here is the daily percent positive for Orange County -

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information/county-report/county_reports_latest.pdf

 

[ryguy]

Disney should stick to entertaining people. I will talk to my Doctor about my own health and what I put into my body. I am certainly not taken advice from a Muppet

 

[DisneyFan32]

It looks like Six Flags will might change to lose masks outdoors maybe....
But I don't know Great Adventure may lose mask outdoors for Jersey Devil Coaster's opening next month cause they are shooting the commercial early next month maybe...