Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

50% vaccinated + 20-30% "naturally" vaccinated gets to the 70% number, which is why the cases are down and likely to stay down. Another study came out today that showed the naturally acquired immune response is as protective as the vaccine response.

To be safe, I did get the vaccine after having Covid

This is why you can’t just add naturally immune to vaccinated. You are counting many people twice. There’s no good metric to say how many naturally infected people there are and also no good way of knowing how many naturally infected people got the vaccine too. Based on reported cases 10% of the population was naturally infected. Due to lack of testing in the beginning and also asymptomatic cases the assumption is that number is probably double. We are at 60% of all adults with at least 1 dose so I would assume some level of vaccination among naturally infected people that is lower, maybe as much as 10% lower. So if 20% of the population was naturally infected and half the people infected got the vaccine that means 10% of the population is naturally immune and not vaccinated. If the naturally infected number is as high as 30% instead of 20% then 15% gets added to the vaccinated number.

One more twist is the vaccines are not 100% effective so when counting number of people immune if 60% of adults are vaccinated with a 95% effective vaccine that’s 57% immune plus the 10-15% for the unvaccinated people who are naturally immune. So 67-72% of adults immune. But full immunity is 2 weeks past the 2nd shot so you have to wait 3-4 more weeks.

 

[DisneyFan32]

This is why you can’t just add naturally immune to vaccinated. You are counting many people twice. There’s no good metric to say how many naturally infected people there are and also no good way of knowing how many naturally infected people got the vaccine too. Based on reported cases 10% of the population was naturally infected. Due to lack of testing in the beginning and also asymptomatic cases the assumption is that number is probably double. We are at 60% of all adults with at least 1 dose so I would assume some level of vaccination among naturally infected people that is lower, maybe as much as 10% lower. So if 20% of the population was naturally infected and half the people infected got the vaccine that means 10% of the population is naturally immune and not vaccinated. If the naturally infected number is as high as 30% instead of 20% then 15% gets added to the vaccinated number.

One more twist is the vaccines are not 100% effective so when counting number of people immune if 60% of adults are vaccinated with a 95% effective vaccine that’s 57% immune plus the 10-15% for the unvaccinated people who are naturally immune. So 67-72% of adults immune. But full immunity is 2 weeks past the 2nd shot so you have to wait 3-4 more weeks.

Even Six Flags did not lift mask mandate for the parks yet, they should lift mask mandate like Cedar Fair, Universal and Disney.

 

[Nickp1983]

The only stat we can really go by is hospitalizations. At least in my opinion. The entire point of lockdowns and regulations was so we don't overwhelm the hospital system. Between natural immunity, asymptomatic infections, vaccinations and even moderate infections (no hospital visit) if we can have a hospitalization rate around what the seasonal flu is... thats great and should be the overall goal. This virus isn't going away. It's here and it isn't leaving. The best thing we can do is get to a point where it's annoying but not disruptive.

I honestly feel like we are almost there. Yes, could we see spikes in infections. But if they are 99% moderate to asymptomatic... thats a huge win. The most at risk group is largely protected now and not to be mean... but if obese people and people with pre existing health conditions get the jab too... we are going to be in great shape. Yes, like my brother, healthy people can get severe covid too, but it's not the norm.

I mean, I almost died of a sinus infection when I was 7 (spent 3 weeks in the hospital)... so it does happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm not sure they'll reach 70% ever. Broward is at 57.4% of adults (as of the Mayor's email yesterday) and is a "deep blue" county with an older skewed population (though not as skewed as palm beach). When county level emergency measures were a thing, Broward was using 65% of adults vaccinated as the target for full removal of restrictions.

I assume that the Mayor had a good reason to assume they would get to the number if he set the goal. Maybe that county has higher income or education levels comparatively which are also indicators of vaccine acceptance levels.

 

[Nickp1983]

I assume that the Mayor had a good reason to assume they would get to the number if he set the goal. Maybe that county has higher income or education levels comparatively which are also indicators of vaccine acceptance levels.

Voodoo donuts is offering a free donut per vaccine. If OC doesn't get up to 99%... humanity is dead to me.

 

[GoofGoof]

The only stat we can really go by is hospitalizations. At least in my opinion. The entire point of lockdowns and regulations was so we don't overwhelm the hospital system. Between natural immunity, asymptomatic infections, vaccinations and even moderate infections (no hospital visit) if we can have a hospitalization rate around what the seasonal flu is... thats great and should be the overall goal. This virus isn't going away. It's here and it isn't leaving. The best thing we can do is get to a point where it's annoying but not disruptive.

I think hospitalizations were a bigger factor when businesses were closed or severely restricted. To justify forcing a business to close we needed a compelling public health reason and the threat of having hospitals overrun was a big part of that at the time. Flashing forward to today, in almost every state most if not all businesses are allowed to be open and most of the capacity restrictions are lifted. At this point the main covid safety mitigation left is indoor masks. They don’t really impact a business‘s ability to operate. The only effective way to replace masks is to vaccinate enough people that the virus cannot spread and then they aren’t necessary. That’s what is happening a lot of places now.

 

[GoofGoof]

Voodoo donuts is offering a free donut per vaccine. If OC doesn't get up to 99%... humanity is dead to me.

When they were doing the 6 foot distancing thing I bet the line there went all the way through the parking garage and out to I drive

 

[Nickp1983]

When they were doing the 6 foot distancing thing I bet the line there went all the way through the parking garage and out to I drive

No joke. We are doing 11 nights at Disney but one night we are loading in my truck Beverly hillbillies style and heading to city walk to get some voodoo donuts

 

[danlb_2000]

Even Six Flags did not lift mask mandate for the parks yet, they should lift mask mandate like Cedar Fair, Universal and Disney.

I am pretty sure NJ's mask rules would currently prevent Six Flags from changing their policy.

 

[danlb_2000]

lol yes because if I didn't have any intention of getting the vaccine Disney telling me to is going to change my mind... What is it with leftists and thinking people care what they say?

One source, Disney or otherwise, might not change someone's mind, but constantly hearing the message from many sources might. Remember we are not really going after the hard-core anti-vaxers, you not likely to change their minds, but there are a lot of other people who are just on the fence and may just need some persuasion.

 

[Nickp1983]

I'm kinda bummed I didn't gain any mutant powers with my shots.

My wife has the super power of "the look".

You know. When you load the dishwasher wrong and she gives you "the look" when she has to hand wash the wine glasses.

Come to think of it... she developed that way before covid.

 

[Nickp1983]

One source, Disney or otherwise, might not change someone's mind, but constantly hearing the message from many sources might. Remember we are not really going after the hard-core anti-vaxers, you not likely to change their minds, but there are a lot of other people who are just on the fence and may just need some persuasion.

Not to combine threads Buuuuuuut

Free fast pass coupon with proof of vaccination????

 

[ImperfectPixie]

My wife has the super power of "the look".

You know. When you load the dishwasher wrong and she gives you "the look" when she has to hand wash the wine glasses.

Come to think of it... she developed that way before covid.

My oldest (15) keeps asking when I developed supernatural hearing abilities...I always tell him it was the day he was born...same as the eyes in the back of my head.

 

[Patcheslee]

Voodoo donuts is offering a free donut per vaccine. If OC doesn't get up to 99%... humanity is dead to me.

Where'd you hear about that?

 

[Patcheslee]

I'm kinda bummed I didn't gain any mutant powers with my shots.

Universal could have X-men explaining their powers DIDN'T come from the covid shot lol.

 

[Nickp1983]

Where'd you hear about that?

I was mistaken. It's Krispy Cream.
Ya... now no one is getting vaccinated.

 

[danlb_2000]

I was mistaken. It's Krispy Cream.
Ya... now no one is getting vaccinated.

I'll get a vaccine if you don't make me eat a Krispy Cream doughnut.

 

[Nickp1983]

I'll get a vaccine if you don't make me eat a Krispy Cream doughnut

Same. Greasy slimy donuts served warm? It makes you just feel gross eating one

 

[DisneyFan32]

I am pretty sure NJ's mask rules would currently prevent Six Flags from changing their policy.

Could be change by end of the month or early June....

 

[orky8]

Eell the wording from Demings for removing mask requirements was:

Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below. All mandates are lifted.

So what exactly does AND/OR mean? Logic would say that condition cannot exist.

It seems the ambiguity may have been deliberate to speed things up or slow things down. May be the later here.

He also mentioned achieving the Phase 3 by July. I'm doubting he is expecting to get there this week.

“And/or” means “either or both.”

A and/or B means either A or B or A and B. For example, we will go to the store and/or park means we will go the store or the park or both the store and the park.

In the Phase 3 context “or” would have been sufficient grammar wise if the the condition is triggering, meaning we go the phase 3 as soon as a condition is met. If the mayor intends to retain discretion, then it means he’ll go to phase 3 upon one or maybe both conditions being met, depending on how he decides.