Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Yeah, I said WDW would be back to normal by June 1

Irony being, June will be in better shape (at least in many parts of the country) than I may have expected. In terms of actual progress against the disease, things are standing on the more optimistic sides of my projections.

In fact, I think the parks probably could safely go back to mostly normal by June. Universal looks like they might do so.

WDW seems intent on taking baby steps. Being allowed to self-serve soda is WDW's big step to normalcy. The return of valet parking... but even that can't be done all at once. Nope, valet parking will slowly return over a period of several weeks.

What has me scratching my head:

They are late in terms of announcing mid-late summer discounts. They offered fairly large discounts through early July. That makes sense: bookings were probably VERY soft when they announced so those discounts. They were announced in January.

July is now just 2 months away, and still no discounts announced. This could suggest strong demand and therefore no need for significant discounts. But, if demand is so strong that you don't need discounts, then why not open up AKL and the remaining resorts?

 

[GoofGoof]

And they have 80% of adults vaccinated. Also a fact. (and they are really right at 60%).

We have ample evidence by now that adults spread the disease far more than kids. I actually suspect that if we vaccinated enough adults, we would get herd immunity without vaccinating any kids.

But facts are facts... If you want to compare to Israel, neither of us can pick and choose which comparisons to make:

60% of entire population vaccinated, with vaccination available to 16+ : Will the US get there? Overall, maybe. But appears certain that some regions will not hit 60%.
80% of adults vaccinated: Will the US get there? Unlikely, except maybe a few regions.
Vaccinate passports for public venues? No, the US is not going that on any wide basis.




You and I are in agreement actually. But most of those "unvaccinated" kids aren't 15. There are probably about the same number of 5 year-olds as 15 year-olds.

But the key is also looking at congregate settings. Take a Broadway theater. 90% of the audience is typically over 16. Maybe 5% is 12-15. And 5% is under 12. So if "80%" of the adults are vaccinated, then 72% of the entire audience is vaccinated.
Now, imagine only 70% of adults are vaccinated. But now we start to vaccinate the 12-15.... 70% of 12-15 are vaccinated. So with 70% of adults vaccinated, and 70% of 12-15 vaccinated, only 66% of the entire audience will be vaccinated.

So it's partially a matter of young children spreading the disease less. Thus, if you need to start vaccinated 7 year-olds to reach a higher level of vaccination, that's not the same benefit as vaccinating a 20-year-old. And vaccinating a 13-year-old doesn't bring the same benefit of vaccinating a 60-year-old. Partially because those younger people aren't congregating in the same settings.

For example, how does vaccinating a bunch of 13-year-olds prevent Covid from spreading in a 21+ bar?



As I said, you can't pick and choose the facts and twist them in the hopes of getting the outcome you want.

Maybe 60% of 16+ population vaccination is required for herd immunity and Israel got there. Maybe the US will get there, maybe the US won't.
Maybe only 55% is really needed... and the US will get there. Israel just went even further.
But you can't just assume that vaccinating 13 year-olds will have the same effect as vaccinating adults.
Best you can say is "maybe."

We disagree that a vaccinated 15 year old is not as valuable as a vaccinated 16 year old or a vaccinated 40 year old. It’s not picking and choosing. 60% is of the entire population is in both cases. If Israel arrives there with 80% of adults and 0% of kids 12-15 and the US arrives there at 70% of people 12+ we both have 60% of the population vaccinated. Vaccinating 13 year olds doesn’t stop spread in a bar but neither does vaccinating a 20 year old. We are still counting teens 16+ through 20 in Israel why not count 12-15 year olds too. Having 15 year olds vaccinated stops the spread in after school activities, in school itself and potentially at job sights if the kid works a part time job.

 

[JoeCamel]

Is MCO actually in Orange County? In other words is this something done independent of the Mayor’s speech or is it related to that change?

I doubt it, TSA runs the procedures at the airport so masks and 3 feet for now.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[havoc315]

We disagree that a vaccinated 15 year old is not as valuable as a vaccinated 16 year old or a vaccinated 40 year old. It’s not picking and choosing. 60% is of the entire population is in both cases. If Israel arrives there with 80% of adults and 0% of kids 12-15 and the US arrives there at 70% of people 12+ we both have 60% of the population vaccinated. Vaccinating 13 year olds doesn’t stop spread in a bar but neither does vaccinating a 20 year old.

But it’s not like the US “shortage” is strictly 16’s and you’re substituting 15’s.

You’re trying to substitute 16’s for 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, etc.

Having 80% of 30-50 year-olds vaccinated isn’t the same as 70% of 30-50, plus a bunch of 12-15.

We are still counting teens 16+ through 20 in Israel why not count 12-15 year olds too. Having 15 year olds vaccinated stops the spread in after school activities, in school itself and potentially at job sights if the kid works a part time job.

 

[GoofGoof]

But it’s not like the US “shortage” is strictly 16’s and you’re substituting 15’s.

You’re trying to substitute 16’s for 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, etc.

Having 80% of 30-50 year-olds vaccinated isn’t the same as 70% of 30-50, plus a bunch of 12-15.

I disagree with that. My teenage relatives are far more likely to be out and about and spreading Covid than me (40s) or my dad (70s). If anything a teen vs an adult is break even at worst and probably a little better. I would agree if you are comparing a kid under 5 to an adult, but teens are very active and social and have lots of opportunity for spread, especially high school kids.

 

[havoc315]

I disagree with that. My teenage relatives are far more likely to be out and about and spreading Covid than me (40s) or my dad (70s). If anything a teen vs an adult is break even at worst and probably a little better. I would agree if you are comparing a kid under 5 to an adult, but teens are very active and social and have lots of opportunity for spread, especially high school kids.

But are those teens socializing with other teens, or are they socializing with vulnerable 40-90 year olds.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

But are those teens socializing with other teens, or are they socializing with vulnerable 40-90 year olds.

They're socializing with other teens here. Quite a bit.

 

[danlb_2000]

There are some people who think maybe masks should be worn for flu season seeing as flu poses a much higher risk to children and the vaccine is famously not very effective. Where do we draw the line on which respiratory infection warrants mitigation? There are a lot of sicknesses that are serious to certain groups of people. I don't have an opinion on this yet but I will say that I enjoyed not getting sick this year and last

I'm still wondering why flu cases dropped. Does this mean masks protect us from the flu but not covid? Nursing homes have had outbreaks despite staff being required to wear masks. Do masks work? This is what I'd like to see some data on.

A good start would be, if your are having respiratory symptoms and need to go out in public, wear a mask.

 

[correcaminos]

But are those teens socializing with other teens, or are they socializing with vulnerable 40-90 year olds.

Both. Seeing friends and then separately family.

 

[GoofGoof]

But are those teens socializing with other teens, or are they socializing with vulnerable 40-90 year olds.

What difference does that make? Spread is spread. We are not talking about the outcome of the sickness we are talking about reducing community spread and reaching herd immunity.

 

[havoc315]

They're socializing with other teens here. Quite a bit.

Yes. But that’s not a high risk population.

That’s why you can’t say:
If one country reaches herd immunity by vaccinating 80% of adults and 0% of teens, that means you will also reach herd immunity by vaccinating 70% of adults and 70% of teens.

That does not logically follow. It -might- be true. But it’s not necessarily true. The populations are different, you can’t know whether it would lead to the same results.

 

[SamusAranX]

 

[GoofGoof]

They're socializing with other teens here. Quite a bit.

Both. Seeing friends and then separately family.

It’s a combo of both. So in a place like WDW I’m just as likely to be infected by a 15 year old as a 45 year old. Same goes for a church service or a pro sports game. For any teens who work part time jobs at the grocery store or at McDonalds they are just as likely to infect someone as a 30 year old worker there who chose not to get vaccinated.

Yes. But that’s not a high risk population.

That’s why you can’t say:
If one country reaches herd immunity by vaccinating 80% of adults and 0% of teens, that means you will also reach herd immunity by vaccinating 70% of adults and 70% of teens.

That does not logically follow. It -might- be true. But it’s not necessarily true. The populations are different, you can’t know whether it would lead to the same results.

You are mixing things up. A person who is “high risk” has a much more likely negative outcome from being infected. A young and healthy person is no less likely to get covid or spread it they are just more likely to survive or not be hospitalized. So when looking at hospitalizations or death it’s much better to have more high risk people vaccinated and adding more healthy young people has less of an impact, not none...just less. When looking at community spread and the number of people being infected daily taking out a portion of highly mobile teens is just as important or more important than taking out a portion of less mobile senior citizens. Look no further than Israel itself, when they finished the elderly population they focused next on teens over 16 in their implementation plan. We went a different route but it doesn’t change the fact that we need to vaccinate the young and healthy too.

 

[hopemax]

Although widely believed prior to now, COVID-19 should not be classified as a respiratory disease, but a vascular disease. Recent study not only provides the verification, but they also identified how the vascular damage occurs. That spike protein is a nasty devil. Scientists found a way to separate the spike protein and make a pseudo virus, to evaluate only the effect of the spike protein and demonstrated that they damage endothelial cells.

COVID-19 Is a Vascular Disease: Coronavirus’ Spike Protein Attacks Vascular System on a Cellular Level

Salk researchers and collaborators show how the protein damages cells, confirming COVID-19 as a primarily vascular disease. Scientists have known for a while that SARS-CoV-2’s distinctive “spike” proteins help the virus infect its host by latching on to healthy cells. Now, a major new study shows

scitechdaily.com

My meme version. Not only does the spike protein

It also

Avoiding getting COVID isn't about the benefits of skipping out on a cough and fever and then everything will be fine.

 

[havoc315]

It’s a combo of both. So in a place like WDW I’m just as likely to be infected by a 15 year old as a 45 year old. Same goes for a church service or a pro sports game. For any teens who work part time jobs at the grocery store or at McDonalds they are just as likely to infect someone as a 30 year old worker there who chose not to get vaccinated.

You are mixing things up. A person who is “high risk” has a much more likely negative outcome from being infected. A young and healthy person is no less likely to get covid or spread it they are just more likely to survive or not be hospitalized. So when looking at hospitalizations or death it’s much better to have more high risk people vaccinated and adding more healthy young people has less of an impact, not none...just less. When looking at community spread and the number of people being infected daily taking out a portion of highly mobile teens is just as important or more important than taking out a portion of less mobile senior citizens. Look no further than Israel itself, when they finished the elderly population they focused next on teens over 16 in their implementation plan. We went a different route but it doesn’t change the fact that we need to vaccinate the young and healthy too.

You keep missing the point.
Studies show that for 15 and under, they are less likely to transmit the disease whether vaccinated or not.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Everything You Need to Know | Healthline

Live news & updates on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

www.healthline.com

They congregate different than adults. They suffer different outcomes then adults.

Therefore, you cannot be 100% certain that vaccinating a 12 year old has the same contribution to herd immunity as vaccinating a 50 year old.

I’m trying to be honest and saying it’s an unknown because there are many variables.
I don’t know what you’re basing your 100% certainty upon.
If the last year has taught us anything, it should be that certainty is impossible.

 

[Smooth]

 

[havoc315]

Both. Seeing friends and then separately family.

Yes, they have different congregation patterns. They transmit the disease differently. It affects them differently.

So if, for example— the population was 50% adults and 50% kids.
And 1 region vaccinated all the kids but none of the kids. The other region vaccinated all the adults, but none of the kids.
While both regions achieved a 50% vaccination rate, you wouldn’t expect the resulting effects to be the same.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I don't see Disney changing anytime soon but I could see Universal and other attractions go back to 2019 sometime over the summer. Who knows about Seaworld anymore

 

[Angel Ariel]

They're socializing with other teens here. Quite a bit.

And then going home to their families, which is where spread to older populations would stem from teens. In fact, that's exactly what happened to my brother's family. My nephew, 14, got it and spread it to the rest of the family. Thank God they hadn't spent time with my parents (whom they live 5 mins away from, and are both in the high risk age group and weren't yet vaccinated as this was before a vaccine was available to them) before they discovered he was positive.