I’m not sure why you insist on doing this all the time. I have no issue with us disagreeing on things but you seem to need to twist what I’m saying into something else to prove me wrong. I never anywhere said I was 100% certain about anything.
I'm not twisting anything. All I said is -- we don't know. And you disagreed with me. So, you seem to be agreeing with me now.. that we don't know with any certainty?
I see a lot of value in getting teenagers vaccinated. I see a lot of value in getting young and healthy people vaccinated in general. We can agree to disagree on that. In my opinion teenagers are still spreading Covid so if the goal is to reduce spread we can help the cause by getting them vaccinated.
My main point in all of this is that we may not get to 80% of adults vaccinated like Israel but that doesn’t mean that we can’t reach herd immunity following a different path. It’s great for them that they got 80% of adults vaccinated and they have reached what may be herd immunity without getting a single kid under 16 vaccinated. That doesn’t mean that’s the only path. It will take us longer but it’s Possible we can get there another way and not have to settle for “close enough” as you suggested.
Pretty sure that's exactly what I've been saying all along -- That we don't know whether we will reach herd immunity or not. We may get there, even without following Israel's path.
I never said we will "have to" settled for "close enough." I did say I suspect we will end up settling for "close enough." But I'm holding out hope that we will reach herd immunity.
My exact quote:
"Ultimately, I
suspect we won’t reach actual herd immunity. Instead, we will settle for “close enough.”"
And my reasons: We are vaccinating less than the UK and Israel and other successful countries, especially in some regions. We are mitigating less than those countries.
Now, as I've said repeatedly -- it's still possible we reach herd immunity even with less vaccination and less mitigation. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
But it's a fact that many parts of the US have
already settled for good enough. Many states have already removed all Covid restrictions, despite sub-optimal vaccination levels. They might eventually reach herd immunity anyway -- but they have already said "good enough" and removed the restrictions. Even "restrictive" places like NY have started to signal, that they will normalize very soon. Whether or not there is still community spread.
Maybe I should define "settling for good enough" -- That means removing mask mandates, removing capacity limits, removing social distancing requirements -- While there is still any uncontrolled community spread. If you remove restrictions while there are still more than 1-2 cases per 100,000 people, then you have "settled for good enough."
Even Israel, which is now at 1 case per 100,000 people, still has significant restrictions. (passport requirements, indoor masking requirements, etc)
So Israel isn't "settling" -- While they have removed some restrictions, they still have many restrictions -- even with only 1 case per 100,000 people.
Here is where we should be, approximately: More than 30,000 cases per day: Complete mask mandate indoors and crowded outdoor spaces. Strict limits on bars and indoor restaurants (anyplace where you can't wear a mask). Capacity restrictions for large crowds, weddings, etc.
10,000-30,000 cases -- mask mandates for indoor areas, bars and restaurants operate indoors at reduced capacity. Capacity restrictions relaxed for outdoor venues. Relax social distancing.
Drop below 5,000-10,000 cases: Remove mask mandates, remove bar and restaurant restrictions. Continue extensive testing and contact tracing, including testing/vaccine requirements for international travel, college campuses, cruises, etc.
Drop below 1,000 cases per day: remove testing/vaccine requirements.
Moving more aggressively than this (approximately) is "settling for good enough."
Mayor Demings already announced that Orange County will "settle for good enough" -- He said he will roll back ALL mandates when 70% of the population is vaccinated OR when the positivity rate is below 5%.
A positivity rate of 5% is still far above herd immunity.
Mayor Jerry Demings announced Orange County's three-phased plan to rolling back its mask mandate.
www.clickorlando.com
The funny thing -- If you look at the graphics for Phase 3 -- there is a marker that says "79% - herd immunity" -- But that all mandates will get rolled back at 70%. So he is explicitly announcing that they are going to settle for good enough! They are planning to remove all mandates BEFORE reaching herd immunity.
Now, as I've said before -- I'm crossing my fingers that we reach herd immunity anyway. Maybe it can be achieved at a lower vaccination level, or maybe we will reach the higher vaccination level. But every level of government has already rolled back their mandates, or have signalled they plan to roll them back, whether we reach herd immunity or not.
www.healthline.com
