Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GaBoy]

does anyone think 3ft makes that much of a difference? 3ft is actually very little distance and feels more like safety theater because they didn’t want to say no more social distancing

3ft is good manners. Shouldn't have to post a sign.

 

[Patcheslee]

6 feet feels close range to me sometimes especially when someone coughs or sneezes indoors. Disney is completely different than the general community. I don't really feel like controlling social distancing with stickers is necessary at a grocery store at this stage or anywhere people naturally spread out. Disney lines can keep you in one stuffy place for up to 90 minutes or more. I'd rather space out somewhere like that. I can see it from both ends but ultimately I see the benefit of this large theme park playing it safer than other businesses.

Even with them at the grocery store checkouts I end up with a cart rear ending me. They've cut down to 2-3 checkout lanes even on Sundays so 30 minutes to get through. Last weekend it was some brat kid hanging off mine and his mother's cart while I'm trying to put stuff on the conveyor. Even after I told him to stop he continued and his mom could care less. That's just general laziness and Walmart being short staffed/burnt-out working.

 

[GoofGoof]

To reach true herd immunity, you’d need 80% immunity level.

If vaccines provide 100% immunity.
If a region had 33% of the population with naturally acquired immunity, then you’d need to vaccinate 70% of the population to get to the 80% level.

If a region had 20% of the population naturally immune, then you’d need to vaccine 75% of the population.

Ultimately, I suspect we won’t reach actual herd immunity. Instead, we will settle for “close enough.”

I agree with most of this post and with what @hopemax said too. Aside from the R vs R naught that I got wrong we were saying pretty much the exact same thing and my posts were talking about an average for the US which to some extent is meaningless. I think we all agree that full herd immunity is more likely be reached regionally but not necessarily everywhere nationally depending on both levels of vaccination and natural infection.

The only part I don’t necessarily agree with is the last sentence. How do we explain Israel? They appear to be very close to reaching herd immunity (or maybe already have, time will tell) with under 60% of their population vaccinated and their natural infection rate is pretty similar to the US. In most parts of the US we should reach 60% of the population vaccinated eventually. Maybe not in May but certainly once we get 12-15 year olds done, and eventually we should be at that level nationally even if all states or areas aren’t. My only point is we shouldn’t give up on herd immunity based on some arbitrary level of vaccination that can’t or won’t be achieved. We still don’t know where we need to be because we don’t actually know exactly what level of immunity we need to hit and we also don’t know how many people are naturally immune due to asymptomatic spread. It’s certainly possible that we never reach herd immunity and just have to live with the virus going forward indefinitely but that’s only one possibility.

 

[hopemax]

With the exception of countries who will physically force people to get vaccinated, very few countries will get to 91.6% vaccinated (taking into account the vaccines are ~90% effective preventing infection).

After working it through, the variation of natural immunity rates and high numbers needed elsewhere, you start to see why, for border control, vaccine passports are going to be a thing. Americans would be best to start thinking about it as such. IATA, who handles the global visa verification system, is already working on a standardized system. If the records taken by the state, hospital, pharmacy registrations aren't good enough for proof, we know updated formulations are coming, and we'll have to get jabbed with one of those before travel to be recorded properly. Just like malaria, yellow fever or any of the other shots that may be required. Even if we do it the American capitalist way, which means instead of a national database in conjunction with local pharmacy or hospital network, you have to go to your local Passport Health or other travel clinic and pay OOP for the privilege.

If your vax-hesitant friend is a traveler, he better get used to selecting from a smaller list of countries. Oceania, especially Australia and New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, the SE Asian countries, China especially will want something.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I agree with most of this post and with what @hopemax said too. Aside from the R vs R naught that I got wrong we were saying pretty much the exact same thing and my posts were talking about an average for the US which to some extent is meaningless. I think we all agree that full herd immunity is more likely be reached regionally but not necessarily everywhere nationally depending on both levels of vaccination and natural infection.

The only part I don’t necessarily agree with is the last sentence. How do we explain Israel? They appear to be very close to reaching herd immunity (or maybe already have, time will tell) with under 60% of their population vaccinated and their natural infection rate is pretty similar to the US. In most parts of the US we should reach 60% of the population vaccinated eventually. Maybe not in May but certainly once we get 12-15 year olds done, and eventually we should be at that level nationally even if all states or areas aren’t. My only point is we shouldn’t give up on herd immunity based on some arbitrary level of vaccination that can’t or won’t be achieved. We still don’t know where we need to be because we don’t actually know exactly what level of immunity we need to hit and we also don’t know how many people are naturally immune due to asymptomatic spread. It’s certainly possible that we never reach herd immunity and just have to live with the virus going forward indefinitely but that’s only one possibility.

@GoofGoof Yeah but I'm worrying by this fall/winter in USA as we will get into the colder months like surge or spikes will get worse or something. As people will still getting vaccinating by fall/winter as the surges or spikes won't be problem anymore especially for holidays like Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas/New Year's Eve. Also by fall/winter at end of the year, everything will mostly go back to normal for good as social distancing and masks will be gone for good by then. As everything's return to normal will be better than last year for Christmas, Thanksgiving and Halloween, as people will enjoy with their families again. And we will enjoy rest for lives for back to normal starting next year will be MUCH better than this year and last year, right @GoofGoof

 

[GoofGoof]

View attachment 553909

Number of people starting their vaccine series is slowing very rapidly.

56% of adults have at least started vaccination.
At our peak, 1.8 million people were starting vaccination per day... its dropped to 1 million and still declining very very fast.

Fingers crossed that we will get to 70% of adults by mid June, but at the rate we are slowing down, it will be very difficult.

The average is still 1.1M a day. We are at 56% of adults with 1 dose so to get to 70% we need an additional 31M adults to go. At 1.1M doses a day that’s 28 days. There are roughly 45 days until mid June so if we assume a drop in doses the average would need to drop below 689K doses a day to not reach 70% by mid-June. We will know soon enough. If the average stays north of 1M doses for a week or 2 longer than the average for the next 30 days could drop all the way to just over 500K a day and we would still make it. Vaccinations have dropped off but that drop off is already slowing. This was always the plan. Keep the faith.

 

[GoofGoof]

MCO has apparently moved to 3 feet for distancing -

Is MCO actually in Orange County? In other words is this something done independent of the Mayor’s speech or is it related to that change?

 

[GoofGoof]

does anyone think 3ft makes that much of a difference? 3ft is actually very little distance and feels more like safety theater because they didn’t want to say no more social distancing

3 feet has always been the WHO distance. Well technically a meter with the metric system which is like 3.3 feet so we are officially getting closer than the rest of the world now

 

[havoc315]

I agree with most of this post and with what @hopemax said too. Aside from the R vs R naught that I got wrong we were saying pretty much the exact same thing and my posts were talking about an average for the US which to some extent is meaningless. I think we all agree that full herd immunity is more likely be reached regionally but not necessarily everywhere nationally depending on both levels of vaccination and natural infection.

The only part I don’t necessarily agree with is the last sentence. How do we explain Israel? They appear to be very close to reaching herd immunity (or maybe already have, time will tell) with under 60% of their population vaccinated and their natural infection rate is pretty similar to the US. In most parts of the US we should reach 60% of the population vaccinated eventually. Maybe not in May but certainly once we get 12-15 year olds done, and eventually we should be at that level nationally even if all states or areas aren’t. My only point is we shouldn’t give up on herd immunity based on some arbitrary level of vaccination that can’t or won’t be achieved. We still don’t know where we need to be because we don’t actually know exactly what level of immunity we need to hit and we also don’t know how many people are naturally immune due to asymptomatic spread. It’s certainly possible that we never reach herd immunity and just have to live with the virus going forward indefinitely but that’s only one possibility.

Though I believe Israel is showing herd immunity, we won’t actually know until they end all mitigation, passports, etc.

The reason I suspect we will settle for “good enough” is because that’s what we are doing.
Israel waited until they were under 300 cases per day to lift mask mandates, while many US states lifted it with ongoing wide spread.
Israel used passports to limit many public venues to vaccinated people - a step we refuse to take.
And most critically, Israel vaccinated 80%+ of adults. Some regions in the US are struggling to reach 50-60% of adults.

Now, as I’ve said — we don’t actually know the exact vaccination level required for herd immunity. There are so many contributing factors.
If the US vaccinated 80%+ of adults, consistently across all regions, then it’s very possible the US will achieve Israel’s results.

But it’s illogical to conclude that we will reach Israel’s level when we vaccinate far fewer adults than Israel, when we mitigate less than Israel, etc.

Georgia is similar in size to Israel. Georgia is now at the same vaccination level that Israel had as of Feb 15. So Georgia is 3 months behind Israel, and unlikely to ever catch up.

 

[Lilofan]

Is MCO actually in Orange County? In other words is this something done independent of the Mayor’s speech or is it related to that change?

MCO is only a few miles from downtown Orlando so yes it is in Orange County.

 

[havoc315]

The average is still 1.1M a day. We are at 56% of adults with 1 dose so to get to 70% we need an additional 31M adults to go. At 1.1M doses a day that’s 28 days.

Have you looked at the curve? We aren’t going to steadily be giving 1.1 million first doses per day. It’s dropping fast. It was 2 million 1st doses per day just 2 weeks ago. In another week or 2, could easily be just 500,000 first doses per day.

If it starts to smooth out, maybe we hit 70% by mid June. If the decline continues, it could become difficult to ever hit 70%. (I earlier projected an expectation of getting 65-75% of adults vaccinated... I’d probably adjust that down to 63%-73%. 70% still possible but it’s on the more optimistic side).

There are roughly 45 days until mid June so if we assume a drop in doses the average would need to drop below 689K doses a day to not reach 70% by mid-June. We will know soon enough. If the average stays north of 1M doses for a week or 2 longer than the average for the next 30 days could drop all the way to just over 500K a day and we would still make it. Vaccinations have dropped off but that drop off is already slowing. This was always the plan. Keep the faith.

Agreed 100%. You’re just slightly more optimistic than I am.

 

[GoofGoof]

Have you looked at the curve? We aren’t going to steadily be giving 1.1 million first doses per day. It’s dropping fast. It was 2 million 1st doses per day just 2 weeks ago. In another week or 2, could easily be just 500,000 first doses per day.

If it starts to smooth out, maybe we hit 70% by mid June. If the decline continues, it could become difficult to ever hit 70%. (I earlier projected an expectation of getting 65-75% of adults vaccinated... I’d probably adjust that down to 63%-73%. 70% still possible but it’s on the more optimistic side).




Agreed 100%. You’re just slightly more optimistic than I am.

Slightly???

 

[havoc315]

Slightly???

You’re confident we will hit 70% adults vaccinated by June. I’m more at 63-73%.

You are (or were) confident that WDW would be mostly normal by summer.
With Disney summer now just a month away, I’ve long suspected WDW isn’t rushing back to the old normal, largely for reasons that may have nothing to do with Covid.

 

[GoofGoof]

Though I believe Israel is showing herd immunity, we won’t actually know until they end all mitigation, passports, etc.

The reason I suspect we will settle for “good enough” is because that’s what we are doing.
Israel waited until they were under 300 cases per day to lift mask mandates, while many US states lifted it with ongoing wide spread.
Israel used passports to limit many public venues to vaccinated people - a step we refuse to take.
And most critically, Israel vaccinated 80%+ of adults. Some regions in the US are struggling to reach 50-60% of adults.

Now, as I’ve said — we don’t actually know the exact vaccination level required for herd immunity. There are so many contributing factors.
If the US vaccinated 80%+ of adults, consistently across all regions, then it’s very possible the US will achieve Israel’s results.

But it’s illogical to conclude that we will reach Israel’s level when we vaccinate far fewer adults than Israel, when we mitigate less than Israel, etc.

Georgia is similar in size to Israel. Georgia is now at the same vaccination level that Israel had as of Feb 15. So Georgia is 3 months behind Israel, and unlikely to ever catch up.

Israel has under 60% of their population vaccinated right now. That’s a fact. The 40% unvaccinated is roughly 20% of adults and then the rest is kids under 16. Where we fundamentally disagree is that teenagers don’t count as much as adults. I agree that a 5 year old being unvaccinated is less of an issue than an adult because there’s some good science that points to younger kids not being as effective as spreaders due to the lack of development of the receptors the virus attaches to. They are also less mobile in general. I don’t see a large difference between a teenager and an adult. Teens can and do get Covid and they certainly can spread it too. In a lot of ways a 15 year old is a more likely spreader than an adult in their 40s.

So while Israel reached 60% of their population vaccinated excluding anyone under 16 if we reach 60% vaccinated including 12-15 year olds it’s still 60% of the population and still includes people likely to be spreading Covid. So we may not get to 80% of adults vaccinated but 60% of the population of likely spreaders is 60% of the population even if we need to include 12-15 year olds who are 100% unvaccinated in Israel.

 

[DCBaker]

Is MCO actually in Orange County? In other words is this something done independent of the Mayor’s speech or is it related to that change?

Yes, MCO is in Orange County.

 

[GoofGoof]

You’re confident we will hit 70% adults vaccinated by June. I’m more at 63-73%.

You are (or were) confident that WDW would be mostly normal by summer.
With Disney summer now just a month away, I’ve long suspected WDW isn’t rushing back to the old normal, largely for reasons that may have nothing to do with Covid.

Yeah, I said WDW would be back to normal by June 1

 

[DisneyFan32]

Yeah, I said WDW would be back to normal by June 1

Or this:

 

[Rich Brownn]

Does that number come from breakthrough cases and the lag time between first and second shots?

No, the vaccines are not effective for 100% of the people. Some people will get sick even after vaccination. What they wont do is die or be hospitalized.

 

[Patcheslee]

Indiana 4055 1st doses administered , 675 J&J, 14501 2nd doses. A bit of perspective though my and DH 40 yo age group opened and we had appointments for the next week. DH doesn't go for his 2nd shot till this week though, health department still doing 4 week gap for Moderna.

 

[havoc315]

Israel has under 60% of their population vaccinated right now. That’s a fact.

And they have 80% of adults vaccinated. Also a fact. (and they are really right at 60%).

We have ample evidence by now that adults spread the disease far more than kids. I actually suspect that if we vaccinated enough adults, we would get herd immunity without vaccinating any kids.

But facts are facts... If you want to compare to Israel, neither of us can pick and choose which comparisons to make:

60% of entire population vaccinated, with vaccination available to 16+ : Will the US get there? Overall, maybe. But appears certain that some regions will not hit 60%.
80% of adults vaccinated: Will the US get there? Unlikely, except maybe a few regions.
Vaccinate passports for public venues? No, the US is not going that on any wide basis.

The 40% unvaccinated is roughly 20% of adults and then the rest is kids under 16. Where we fundamentally disagree is that teenagers don’t count as much as adults. I agree that a 5 year old being unvaccinated is less of an issue than an adult because there’s some good science that points to younger kids not being as effective as spreaders due to the lack of development of the receptors the virus attaches to. They are also less mobile in general. I don’t see a large difference between a teenager and an adult. Teens can and do get Covid and they certainly can spread it too. In a lot of ways a 15 year old is a more likely spreader than an adult in their 40s.

You and I are in agreement actually. But most of those "unvaccinated" kids aren't 15. There are probably about the same number of 5 year-olds as 15 year-olds.

But the key is also looking at congregate settings. Take a Broadway theater. 90% of the audience is typically over 16. Maybe 5% is 12-15. And 5% is under 12. So if "80%" of the adults are vaccinated, then 72% of the entire audience is vaccinated.
Now, imagine only 70% of adults are vaccinated. But now we start to vaccinate the 12-15.... 70% of 12-15 are vaccinated. So with 70% of adults vaccinated, and 70% of 12-15 vaccinated, only 66% of the entire audience will be vaccinated.

So it's partially a matter of young children spreading the disease less. Thus, if you need to start vaccinated 7 year-olds to reach a higher level of vaccination, that's not the same benefit as vaccinating a 20-year-old. And vaccinating a 13-year-old doesn't bring the same benefit of vaccinating a 60-year-old. Partially because those younger people aren't congregating in the same settings.

For example, how does vaccinating a bunch of 13-year-olds prevent Covid from spreading in a 21+ bar?

So while Israel reached 60% of their population vaccinated excluding anyone under 16 if we reach 60% vaccinated including 12-15 year olds it’s still 60% of the population and still includes people likely to be spreading Covid.

As I said, you can't pick and choose the facts and twist them in the hopes of getting the outcome you want.

Maybe 60% of 16+ population vaccination is required for herd immunity and Israel got there. Maybe the US will get there, maybe the US won't.
Maybe only 55% is really needed... and the US will get there. Israel just went even further.
But you can't just assume that vaccinating 13 year-olds will have the same effect as vaccinating adults.
Best you can say is "maybe."

So we may not get to 80% of adults vaccinated but 60% of the population of likely spreaders is 60% of the population even if we need to include 12-15 year olds who are 100% unvaccinated in Israel.