Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[dreday3]

Interesting, everything I have read says at least 21 days apart but no longer than 42.

I thought it was weird too, but then I read this in numerous places. Apparently everyone questions them about their second appointment too!:

What happens if I am late for the second dose of a two-dose series vaccine?
The Pfizer product is a two-dose vaccination series given 21 days apart. The second dose is allowed within a four-day grace period (days 17-21). If more than 21 days have passed since the first dose, the second dose should be given at the earliest opportunity. You do not have to repeat any doses.

 

[Horizons '83]

I thought it was weird too, but then I read this in numerous places. Apparently everyone questions them about their second appointment too!:

What happens if I am late for the second dose of a two-dose series vaccine?
The Pfizer product is a two-dose vaccination series given 21 days apart. The second dose is allowed within a four-day grace period (days 17-21). If more than 21 days have passed since the first dose, the second dose should be given at the earliest opportunity. You do not have to repeat any doses.

Well I guess I didn't read far enough haha. Thanks for the info. I am guessing that 7 days after the 21st (so 28th day) is fine if Walgreens is doing that for everyone that receives their 1st dose of Pfizer there.

 

[GoofGoof]

Correct... but the port itself doesn’t fall neatly into Florida jurisdiction.
and once they sail into international waters, only international maritime law applies.

So if they can require vaccination once they are a few miles out... how can they be stopped from checking vaccination as people board?

any way, Port Canaveral is actually regulated by a semi independent body, the Canaveral Port Authority.

I don’t know the specifics so maybe I’m wrong, but the Federal government is in charge of the border control aspect of the ports. Ensuring that customs practices are followed. I would assume the day to day operations would fall under state law. As an example, the Federal government controls TSA and customs at the airport, but in the past when a state passed a no smoking ordinance for indoor buildings, that ordinance applied to the airport as well even though there was no federal law against smoking indoors. It’s unclear to me whether a vaccine passport ban would apply to the cruise port itself and/or the cruise ships. If a crime is committed on the ship while at port I believe the local police have jurisdiction. Once in international waters that changes, but the vaccine passport check would happen at port so again, it’s unclear.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Well... we all know they're returning.

The timeframe's the big question.

Summer 2021.

 

[GoofGoof]

I did see that today Biden is expected to announce that he’s moving the date up from May 1 to April 19 for every adult being eligible. Most states already expanded and only 2 states were left with dates later than April 19. I remember 3 or 4 months back people mocking me for projecting vaccines would be open to everyone by April

 

[monothingie]

Summer 2021.

Except at the USO, where they injected their fireworks with the vaccine earlier this year.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I did see that today Biden is expected to announce that he’s moving the date up from May 1 to April 19 for every adult being eligible. Most states already expanded and only 2 states were left with dates later than April 19. I remember 3 or 4 months back people mocking me for projecting vaccines would be open to everyone by April

I now agree with you that we will see kids eligible by the first day of fall.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Except at the USO, where they injected their fireworks with the vaccine earlier this year.

They have technology Disney does not have access to. They are genetically engineering velociraptors while Disney puts a head on a toothpick and calls it a dragon. Universal had its own vaccine 9 months ago.

 

[monothingie]

They have technology Disney does not have access to. They are genetically engineering velociraptors while Disney puts a head on a toothpick and calls it a dragon. Universal had its own vaccine 9 months ago.

 

[havoc315]

I don’t know the specifics so maybe I’m wrong, but the Federal government is in charge of the border control aspect of the ports. Ensuring that customs practices are followed. I would assume the day to day operations would fall under state law. As an example, the Federal government controls TSA and customs at the airport, but in the past when a state passed a no smoking ordinance for indoor buildings, that ordinance applied to the airport as well even though there was no federal law against smoking indoors. It’s unclear to me whether a vaccine passport ban would apply to the cruise port itself and/or the cruise ships. If a crime is committed on the ship while at port I believe the local police have jurisdiction. Once in international waters that changes, but the vaccine passport check would happen at port so again, it’s unclear.

Again, it’s very murky. For example, local wage laws don’t apply when the ship hits the port, but local criminal laws do.

What applies and what doesn’t is governed largely by international treaty and maritime laws.

But I am confident that a Governor’s EO is meaningless, at least in this regard.

You have preemption issues — Federal regulation preempted the State when in conflict.

Really... DeSantis’s EO is likely unconstitutional as applied to private businesses as well.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I've railed on the board here before that the way we test for cases has significant flaws since the ones being tested are self-selecting.

However... almost always a rise in cases has led either to a rise in hospitalizations and then deaths, or, the decline in hospitalizations and deaths stopped declining and instead, plateaued. And the current rate of hospitalizations and deaths is not a good rate to plateau at. (Keeping in mind hospitalizations and deaths lag one to four weeks after cases.)

So, it wouldn't be wise to stop watching cases. They're the canary in the coal mine.

Also, it wouldn't be... fair... for someone to say "stop looking at cases" when they're rising, but then later say, "we can take of masks and return to normal because -- look! -- cases are falling!!"

Our governor's favorite metric is "test positivity rate," which is even worse and for the same reason. It drives me absolutely insane.


None of the other waves of cases have come when the majority of seniors, including the vast majority of 75+, have been fully vaccinated.


In this instance, X does not cause Y, but they are both the result of common cause Z. We don't take off masks and return to normal BECAUSE cases are falling. We take off masks and return to normal AND cases are falling because the high risk population is vaccinated.

It's well-documented that age is the single most important factor in determining outcome.

Per the CDC, more than 75% of those 65 and over have received at least one dose. We also can assume at least some of the 25% who have not received one dose have already been infected. (Maybe 10% of 25%?)

At least one survey from earlier this month reported that 25% of the population is refusing to get vaccinated.

With these figures in mind, nearly everyone over the age of 65 who wants to get vaccinated has received at least one dose. It does seem that the next wave should result in fewer hospitalizations and deaths.

The reality is that 30K to 40K die of the flu every year. As a country, we have accepted this as "normal". (Just as we have accepted that 30K to 40K auto deaths is normal.) IMO, we can begin to return to normal when the number of COVID deaths consistently reaches this level. We still are well above it at the moment, and those who are refusing to get vaccinated are actually slowing down the return to normalcy.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

...those who are refusing to get vaccinated are actually slowing down the return to normalcy.

I agree with the rest of your post but I'm not sure about this, at least not yet. Demand still outpaces supply so we're not seeing vax-hesitancy-caused supply backlogs yet.

 

[GoofGoof]

I now agree with you that we will see kids eligible by the first day of fall.

The funny part is I saw an article yesterday which talked about the 12-15 trial for Pfizer and said they are expecting kids that age to be eligible by the start of the school year now. They are applying for an amendment now, why would it take months and months to get approved. Should be done by May 1. For some reason they still keep slow playing the kids trials. Maybe because they want to get adults done first which makes some sense given level of risk.

For the 5-11 trial I do think the trial fills faster. Back when they started filling the 12-15 trials the vaccines were not approved or used by anyone. Parents feel a lot more comfortable giving their kids vaccines that half a billion people have already taken without any major issues. It takes a minimum of 2 months to collect the safety data so once the full phase 3 trial is 50% enrolled it should be less than 3 months to approval. The phase 1/2 trials are happening now to figure out the doses. If the clock start on the 2 months of safety by July 1 they should have approval in September. It may be possible to move that up a month or so and it could slip a little depending on enrollment.

 

[sullyinMT]

I've railed on the board here before that the way we test for cases has significant flaws since the ones being tested are self-selecting.

However... almost always a rise in cases has led either to a rise in hospitalizations and then deaths, or, the decline in hospitalizations and deaths stopped declining and instead, plateaued. And the current rate of hospitalizations and deaths is not a good rate to plateau at. (Keeping in mind hospitalizations and deaths lag one to four weeks after cases.)

So, it wouldn't be wise to stop watching cases. They're the canary in the coal mine.

Also, it wouldn't be... fair... for someone to say "stop looking at cases" when they're rising, but then later say, "we can take of masks and return to normal because -- look! -- cases are falling!!"

Yes, all of this. Unless there’s a sustained decoupling of cases and hospitalizations/deaths once adults have reached vaccine herd immunity, there’s no reason to not continue watching cases. Plus, if kids still harbor and allow the virus to mutate around vaccines, cases will still matter.

 

[Shouldigo12]

I did see that today Biden is expected to announce that he’s moving the date up from May 1 to April 19 for every adult being eligible. Most states already expanded and only 2 states were left with dates later than April 19. I remember 3 or 4 months back people mocking me for projecting vaccines would be open to everyone by April

And that's all I'm saying on the subject

 

[GoofGoof]

Again, it’s very murky. For example, local wage laws don’t apply when the ship hits the port, but local criminal laws do.

What applies and what doesn’t is governed largely by international treaty and maritime laws.

But I am confident that a Governor’s EO is meaningless, at least in this regard.

You have preemption issues — Federal regulation preempted the State when in conflict.

Really... DeSantis’s EO is likely unconstitutional as applied to private businesses as well.

Remember the real threat behind the executive order is the withholding of state funds for any company that attempts to require proof of vaccination. I have no idea what money the cruise lines all receive from FL. If it’s not substantial they could just ignore the EO anyway. If it’s substantial they may just avoid the state and use out of state ports. If the governor allows the cruise ports to be exempt that opens the door for other businesses to sue over unfair practices. I was under the impression that some of the cruise lines had their own sections of the cruise port terminal similar to airlines having a hub at an airport. If that’s the case they likely are deep in bed with the state.

 

[Disney Experience]

I know the flag the ship sails under applies to a lot of the employment laws and financial issues. My understanding was that while in port the cruise ship is obligated to follow the national and local laws that exist at the port itself. Since the boarding of the ship would occur in a terminal on US soil I assume they have to follow US laws. If that wasn’t true and they were only required to follow the laws of the flag that they fly they could start sailing now as cruising is allowed in the Bahamas already.

I agree. The ship is sovereign to nation it is flagged under, the port ( nation, perhaps state) can deny entry to a ship that does not agree to the terms and requirements of entry. So they cannot stop the non us flagged cruiselines from cruising outside the territoral water and us ports. But a country can deny access to ports and territorial waters. I am not a lawyer, much less one in maritime law.

 

[havoc315]

I agree, though in Michigan, the higher case counts are certainly resulting in increased hospitalizations as well.

View attachment 545664

Data source https://beta.healthdata.gov/dataset/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/6xf2-c3ie

FLorida, on the other hand, and this could be a direct result of vaccination focus

View attachment 545665
Though I'm sure someone will just say it's a result of how FL reports their data to the feds.

It's largely seasonality which has proven to be fairly strong with Covid. Recall -- Last March / April were bad in New York, Michigan...... the same places it is bad now.
Meanwhile, the South... Florida / Texas... barely got touched last March / April, they had their first big waves in summer, August largely.

The exact reasons for the seasonality influence aren't clear. But the working hypothesis is that March / April, in the north -- these are "active" months but people are still largely indoors. In the south, these are the more comfortable months to be outdoors.
Summer... in the north, people head outdoors a lot more. Summer in the South -- people head indoors into air conditioning a lot more.

And yes, there are some reporting issues, but those aren't the primary drivers of the differences. We are seeing a pretty clear pattern -- the areas hit hard last March / April, are seeing rises again. The places that had it pretty mild last Spring, are again mild.

If it weren't for the increasing vaccinations, cases would likely be totally exploding in the North, instead of just mild increases / plateau.
And cases would likely explode in the South this summer -- but by then, hopefully we will have enough vaccinated, that no such explosions occur.

 

[Tom P.]

I know that Dr. Fauci is not the end-all-be-all of Covid information and that his predictions have been wrong at times in the past. But, FWIW, on the "reason to be hopeful" front even Fauci, who tends to be very conservative in his predictions, is saying that he doesn't think we are headed to a fourth wave. While he thinks we may see some spike in cases short-term, he thinks our vaccination efforts are going to manage to prevent a real fourth wave.

Fauci tamps down fears of another coronavirus wave

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, on Tuesday said he is confident the mass vaccination effort underway in the United States will prevent another “explosion&#82…

thehill.com

 

[Disney Experience]

Remember the real threat behind the executive order is the withholding of state funds for any company that attempts to require proof of vaccination. I have no idea what money the cruise lines all receive from FL. If it’s not substantial they could just ignore the EO anyway. If it’s substantial they may just avoid the state and use out of state ports. If the governor allows the cruise ports to be exempt that opens the door for other businesses to sue over unfair practices. I was under the impression that some of the cruise lines had their own sections of the cruise port terminal similar to airlines having a hub at an airport. If that’s the case they likely are deep in bed with the state.

Yes they have their own terminals and even parking. The cruise lines and ports talk about them. Not sure who paid for what in those specific cases. I know port authorities try hard to accommodate the cruise lines. In the Port Canaveral public meeting with Desantis and most major cruiselines the large supply chain in support of cruises was discussed and devastation to those businesses and jobs over the last year.