Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Remember the real threat behind the executive order is the withholding of state funds for any company that attempts to require proof of vaccination. I have no idea what money the cruise lines all receive from FL. If it’s not substantial they could just ignore the EO anyway. If it’s substantial they may just avoid the state and use out of state ports. If the governor allows the cruise ports to be exempt that opens the door for other businesses to sue over unfair practices. I was under the impression that some of the cruise lines had their own sections of the cruise port terminal similar to airlines having a hub at an airport. If that’s the case they likely are deep in bed with the state.

It's not so easy which is why the EO is unenforceable. What if other national ports require that ships can only visit their port if everyone is vaccinated -- So to visit a Caribbean port... or to sail to New York, etc... The cruise ship is required to check vaccination?

This isn't a "Florida" issue, it is an international issue. DeSantis really has now power.
Even if somehow he could stop them from physically checking at the port --- Ok, all passengers must provide their vaccine proof to the Cruise line prior to departure -- it is provided electronically to the cruise line office in the Bahamas (etc).

But again, State jurisdiction over the ports is very murky. Remember, port security is via the TSA.... DeSantis has absolutely no jurisdiction over the TSA. Further, if the Dept of Transportation issues a regulation requiring vaccination for cruise ships at ports, that would override any order by DeSantis.

 

[DisneyFan32]

It's largely seasonality which has proven to be fairly strong with Covid. Recall -- Last March / April were bad in New York, Michigan...... the same places it is bad now.
Meanwhile, the South... Florida / Texas... barely got touched last March / April, they had their first big waves in summer, August largely.

The exact reasons for the seasonality influence aren't clear. But the working hypothesis is that March / April, in the north -- these are "active" months but people are still largely indoors. In the south, these are the more comfortable months to be outdoors.
Summer... in the north, people head outdoors a lot more. Summer in the South -- people head indoors into air conditioning a lot more.

And yes, there are some reporting issues, but those aren't the primary drivers of the differences. We are seeing a pretty clear pattern -- the areas hit hard last March / April, are seeing rises again. The places that had it pretty mild last Spring, are again mild.

If it weren't for the increasing vaccinations, cases would likely be totally exploding in the North, instead of just mild increases / plateau.
And cases would likely explode in the South this summer -- but by then, hopefully we will have enough vaccinated, that no such explosions occur.

Please don't let happen now is really gonna happen if cases actually likely explode both in South and North by summer? I'm scared about this....now we are never get back to normal.

 

[havoc315]

Please don't let happen now is really gonna happen if cases actually likely explode both in South and North by summer? I'm scared about this....now we are never get back to normal.

Again --- I don't expect any explosion in cases, thanks to the vaccination efforts. If we weren't vaccinating, then I'd expect another big summer rise in the south.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I know that Dr. Fauci is not the end-all-be-all of Covid information and that his predictions have been wrong at times in the past. But, FWIW, on the "reason to be hopeful" front even Fauci, who tends to be very conservative in his predictions, is saying that he doesn't think we are headed to a fourth wave. While he thinks we may see some spike in cases short-term, he thinks our vaccination efforts are going to manage to prevent a real fourth wave.

Fauci tamps down fears of another coronavirus wave

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, on Tuesday said he is confident the mass vaccination effort underway in the United States will prevent another “explosion&#82…

thehill.com

Fauci and Walensky need to get on the same page vis-a-vis messaging.

 

[Disney Experience]

Just wondering for anyone who got both of there Pfizer shots, how long did you have to wait (scheduled) for in between appt's.?

I had Pfizer and was part of the phase 3 study which is what they based efficacy from. The time between shots was 21 days. That is the recommended time because that is what they studied.

Outside of the study. 21 days is still the recommended time. But up to 42 days is allowed if it cannot be avoided.

COVID-19 Vaccine Second-Dose Completion and Interval Between ...

This report describes persons who received both doses of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccination series and the interval between the first and second dose among those who were vaccinated.

www.cdc.gov

 

[GimpYancIent]

Please don't let happen now is really gonna happen if cases actually likely explode both in South and North by summer? I'm scared about this....now we are never get back to normal.

Nothing to fear. All trends are downward, there are undulations, but the trends are downward. Vaccination availability is ever increasing and numbers of people completing the vaccination process are increasing. Depending on the source the numbers are interpreted differently and presented differently, its just the way it is. Fear! Doom! Gloom! I say bah! Wear your mask, wash your hands and carry on because everything will be getting steadily better.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's not so easy which is why the EO is unenforceable. What if other national ports require that ships can only visit their port if everyone is vaccinated -- So to visit a Caribbean port... or to sail to New York, etc... The cruise ship is required to check vaccination?

This isn't a "Florida" issue, it is an international issue. DeSantis really has now power.
Even if somehow he could stop them from physically checking at the port --- Ok, all passengers must provide their vaccine proof to the Cruise line prior to departure -- it is provided electronically to the cruise line office in the Bahamas (etc).

But again, State jurisdiction over the ports is very murky. Remember, port security is via the TSA.... DeSantis has absolutely no jurisdiction over the TSA. Further, if the Dept of Transportation issues a regulation requiring vaccination for cruise ships at ports, that would override any order by DeSantis.

Again, it’s not a border control issue. The TSA won’t be enforcing a requirement to be vaccinated unless the federal government orders that and I haven’t seen any evidence that’s the case. The cruise line would be requiring proof of vaccination on their own as part of their re-opening plans to avoid jumping through other hoops. The enforcement of the EO is a holding back of state funding to the business. Whether that’s legal or not I don’t know, but assuming it is the cruise lines are in the same boat as Disney or any other business in FL.

Yes they have their own terminals and even parking. Tye cruise lines and ports talk about them. Not sure who paid for what in those specific cases. I know port authorities try hard to accommodate the cruise lines. In the Port Canaveral public meeting with Desantis and most major cruiselines the large supply chain in support of cruises was discussed and devistation to those businesses and jobs over the last year.

This is why it’s a real pickle for the Governor. The cruise lines are a major part of the local economy and it’s in the best economic interest for everyone to have them back operating. If an EO results in them diverting more cruises outside of FL ports that’s a terrible outcome for the state economy. For the Governor, the best case scenario is they be allowed to operate without the requirement and are allowed to just roll the dice but I really don’t see that happening by July. Short of that, I think he has to bend and allow the vaccine proof if that’s the way the cruise lines go. Then it calls into question why Disney or MLB or any other business has to follow the EO.

 

[jlhwdw]

 

[ParentsOf4]

I agree with the rest of your post but I'm not sure about this, at least not yet. Demand still outpaces supply so we're not seeing vax-hesitancy-caused supply backlogs yet.

I understand your point.

To clarify what I meant, 75% of those over age 65 have received at least one dose. One of the reasons my state opened up to all over 16 is that there is a percent of the population over 65 who refuse to be vaccinated, resulting in some appointments to receive a shot not being booked. They are the ones who are at highest risk and are most likely to have severe outcomes (hospitalizations or death) from COVID.

The refusal to receive a vaccination by those over the age of 65 in my state means more hospitalizations and death, meaning a longer return to normalcy.

Frankly, I’m less concerned about a 25 year-old refusing to be vaccinated or having to wait weeks for their dose. However, I am more concerned when a 75 year-old has been eligible for weeks and still refuses to be vaccinated.

More hospitalizations and deaths means a long road to normalcy.

 

[correcaminos]

Well then the place I got my shot screwed up. I was 28 days. The scheduling was done when I was there.

Some places are doing flat 28 or 30 days for both. It's fine. My dad's was delayed due to a snow storm too. You can be up to 4 days early and 42 days bettween no problem.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I understand your point.

To clarify what I meant, 75% of those over age 65 have received at least one dose. One of the reasons my state opened up to all over 16 is that there is a percent of the population over 65 who refuse to be vaccinated, resulting in some appointments to receive a shot not being booked. They are the ones who are at highest risk and are most likely to have severe outcomes (hospitalizations or death) from COVID.

The refusal to receive a vaccination by those over the age of 65 in my state means more hospitalizations and death, meaning a longer return to normalcy.

Frankly, I’m not overly concerned about a 25 year-old refusing to be vaccinated or having to wait weeks for their dose. However, I am concerned when a 75 year-old has been eligible for weeks and still refuses to be vaccinated.

More hospitalizations and deaths means a long road to normalcy.

Vaccinations are still at a point where people, regardless of age, that want to be vaccinated can not due to bureaucratic nonsense. I believe the concern should be getting the people that want to be vaccinated taken care of and done. Those that decline vaccination, regardless of age, are making a personal choice that could end badly for them.

 

[Tom P.]

Fauci and Walensky need to get on the same page vis-a-vis messaging.

I agree, but you have to pay attention to the first version of anything Walensky says. If you do, you'll see a trend. First, she will say what she really thinks based on the data, which is usually somewhat optimistic. Then she will be forced to walk it back and take a more "doom and gloom" approach. I have my suspicions for why that is, but I won't say so as to not get political, but it's a definite trend none-the-less.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think the opposite is true as well. A small but very vocal subset doesn‘t want the pandemic to end because they are enjoying the attention they are getting from resisting rules.

 

[crawale]

That was the theory last year. That Covid would disappear once the election was over. That didn’t happen. CA, the bluest state out there went back to stay at home orders a month after the election. If this was all theater based on Trump and politics than how do we explain parts of Europe going back into lock down for the 3rd or 4th time as another wave ramps up. Most other countries had similar or more severe Covid restrictions. If it was all based on politics and Trump it would be isolated to the US.

After saying all of this I 100% agree that Trump made the divide worse. So I don’t agree that things were only theater to damage Trump. His buddy runs the state of FL which went into lockdown in the Spring and closed bars And restricted restaurants in the Summer. He wasn’t doing that to hurt Trump.

In Florida the rate of hospitalization to 'positive' cases is 4%. The rate of death to 'positive' cases is 1%. All the lockdowns and mandates and on-line learning in California resulted in the same rates approx as Florida except that in Florida our businesses are open and people are able to earn a living. It is about leaders wanting control of the population and sheep letting them do it.

 

[havoc315]

Again, it’s not a border control issue. The TSA won’t be enforcing a requirement to be vaccinated unless the federal government orders that and I haven’t seen any evidence that’s the case. The cruise line would be requiring proof of vaccination on their own as part of their re-opening plans to avoid jumping through other hoops. The enforcement of the EO is a holding back of state funding to the business. Whether that’s legal or not I don’t know, but assuming it is the cruise lines are in the same boat as Disney or any other business in FL.

Again -- No. It's not that simple. At least not according to my Maritime Law law school professor. The governor's EO's are practically useless when it comes to a cruise ship.

And it is a border control issue -- Vaccination is routinely checked at the border by Federal authorities. For example, we had to show proof of vaccination to bring home my daughter from Asia.

Ultimately, the CDC and DOS regulations will preempt any order by DeSantis.

This is why it’s a real pickle for the Governor.

Eh. It's a pickle if he were to actually try to enforce it. But it's really just culture war virtue signaling.

he cruise lines are a major part of the local economy and it’s in the best economic interest for everyone to have them back operating. If an EO results in them diverting more cruises outside of FL ports that’s a terrible outcome for the state economy. For the Governor, the best case scenario is they be allowed to operate without the requirement and are allowed to just roll the dice but I really don’t see that happening by July. Short of that, I think he has to bend and allow the vaccine proof if that’s the way the cruise lines go.

Again, he has no choice. The cruise lines will do what they want. To the extent he were to try to hold back any state money, it would end up in Court and an injunction would be quickly issued against the EO enforcement as he lacks jurisdiction. At least according to my Maritime law professor.

Then it calls into question why Disney or MLB or any other business has to follow the EO.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Vaccinations are still at a point where people, regardless of age, that want to be vaccinated can not due to bureaucratic nonsense. I believe the concern should be getting the people that want to be vaccinated taken care of and done. Those that decline vaccination, regardless of age, are making a personal choice that could end badly for them.

In my state (Georgia), I signed up for an appointment on Friday and got my first vaccination on Monday.

It's more than bureaucratic nonsense. In my particular case, I had to drive 40 minutes and wait another 45 minutes for my shot. A lot of people can't or won't do that.

At the location where I got my first shot, the line was long when I arrived but there was no line when I left 1 hour later. I was told there were open slots that afternoon that were going unused.

Conversely, if I try to get an appointment at any one of several nearby locations, it's weeks before I can get in.

To me, it was vitally important that I get vaccinated as soon as possible. Others are waiting until it is easy.

 

[crawale]

I had Pfizer and was part of the phase 3 study which is what they based efficacy from. The time between shots was 21 days. That is the recommended time because that is what they studied.

Outside of the study. 21 days is still the recommended time. But up to 42 days is allowed if it cannot be avoided.

COVID-19 Vaccine Second-Dose Completion and Interval Between ...

This report describes persons who received both doses of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccination series and the interval between the first and second dose among those who were vaccinated.

www.cdc.gov

In U.K. the time between first and second dose is 12 weeks.

 

[sullyinMT]

Again, it’s not a border control issue. The TSA won’t be enforcing a requirement to be vaccinated unless the federal government orders that and I haven’t seen any evidence that’s the case. The cruise line would be requiring proof of vaccination on their own as part of their re-opening plans to avoid jumping through other hoops. The enforcement of the EO is a holding back of state funding to the business. Whether that’s legal or not I don’t know, but assuming it is the cruise lines are in the same boat as Disney or any other business in FL.


This is why it’s a real pickle for the Governor. The cruise lines are a major part of the local economy and it’s in the best economic interest for everyone to have them back operating. If an EO results in them diverting more cruises outside of FL ports that’s a terrible outcome for the state economy. For the Governor, the best case scenario is they be allowed to operate without the requirement and are allowed to just roll the dice but I really don’t see that happening by July. Short of that, I think he has to bend and allow the vaccine proof if that’s the way the cruise lines go. Then it calls into question why Disney or MLB or any other business has to follow the EO.

Just to play hypothetical, let’s say the CDC gives Norwegian the go-ahead for their plan of July 4 fully vaccinated cruises. Norwegian will likely want to use Tampa or Miami due to their large port operation and easier spacing.

Would the CDC blessing be considered federal jurisdiction, or a federal condition of sailing? Maybe NCL or the Miami/Tampa port authority couldn’t mandate port-side employees like security/check-in staff, etc, due to the EO, but the ship itself, and the condition to board the ship via vaccine proof would be out of the governor’s hands.

What I find ironic is DeSantis is missing the forest for the tree here. Vaccinated travel is easily the best way for tourism to come back en force, but he wants to appear to be the people’s champion.

 

[ToTBellHop]

In Florida the rate of hospitalization to 'positive' cases is 4%. The rate of death to 'positive' cases is 1%. All the lockdowns and mandates and on-line learning in California resulted in the same rates approx as Florida except that in Florida our businesses are open and people are able to earn a living. It is about leaders wanting control of the population and sheep letting them do it.

I think it’s about leaders wanting to save lives while dealing with an emergency for which there was no playbook. Much has been learned that will be used for the COVID-2119 pandemic.

 

[crawale]

I now agree with you that we will see kids eligible by the first day of fall.

Being elible is not the same as being able to get the vaccine.