Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[HauntedMansionFLA]

2 days in a row over 4M doses administered and the 7 day average climbed to 3.07M. If we get the average up closer to 4M a day that could mean 100-120M doses given in April. Some will be second doses, but that would be enough to get an additional 20-25% of the population started on their first dose. We are at 31% of the overall population started now so north of 50% and pushing 60% at least starting to be vaccinated by May 1. That’s a very doable target. Around May 1 we will also add in the rest of the teen population so another 20M+ eligible for vaccines. The end is near, we just need to get over the finish line.

When do they start with the 12 to 16 year olds? How long till the ages drops down to 5 to 11 year olds?

 

[Lilofan]

When do they start with the 12 to 16 year olds? How long till the ages drops down to 5 to 11 year olds?

If I got the shot at 5 years old I would be kicking and screaming throughout.

 

[seascape]

2 days in a row over 4M doses administered and the 7 day average climbed to 3.07M. If we get the average up closer to 4M a day that could mean 100-120M doses given in April. Some will be second doses, but that would be enough to get an additional 20-25% of the population started on their first dose. We are at 31% of the overall population started now so north of 50% and pushing 60% at least starting to be vaccinated by May 1. That’s a very doable target. Around May 1 we will also add in the rest of the teen population so another 20M+ eligible for vaccines. The end is near, we just need to get over the finish line.

I see we are getting closer to agreement on the date this will be over. I still believe we are about to see a major drop in new cases due to the numbers being vaccinated.

 

[Jrb1979]

2 days in a row over 4M doses administered and the 7 day average climbed to 3.07M. If we get the average up closer to 4M a day that could mean 100-120M doses given in April. Some will be second doses, but that would be enough to get an additional 20-25% of the population started on their first dose. We are at 31% of the overall population started now so north of 50% and pushing 60% at least starting to be vaccinated by May 1. That’s a very doable target. Around May 1 we will also add in the rest of the teen population so another 20M+ eligible for vaccines. The end is near, we just need to get over the finish line.

I wish I shared your optimism but in theory it sounds great. I wish it could be that way. The simple fact there is many younger people who have no interest in the vaccine. I think we are a long way from this ending yet. I see fall the earliest. There is still a lot of push back to get the vaccine.

I see we are getting closer to agreement on the date this will be over. I still believe we are about to see a major drop in new cases due to the numbers being vaccinated.

I don't see cases dropping that quickly. I'm amazed at how many keep dismissing the under 40 crowd driving the numbers now. I guess those over 40 don't care.

 

[danlb_2000]

When do they start with the 12 to 16 year olds? How long till the ages drops down to 5 to 11 year olds?

Right now if you are in Texas...

8-year-old boy ‘accidentally’ vaccinated in Dallas

An eight-year-old boy in Dallas was vaccinated at a drive-thru site in what authorities there are calling an “oversight” and “human error.”

www.kxan.com

 

[Angel Ariel]

If I got the shot at 5 years old I would be kicking and screaming throughout.

Pfizer and Moderna are both currently in trials for younger ages. One is 6 months-11 y/o, the other is 2-11 (IIRC).

 

[GoofGoof]

When do they start with the 12 to 16 year olds? How long till the ages drops down to 5 to 11 year olds?

Pfizer released their results on the 12-15 year old trial last week and they are applying for an amendment to their emergency use authorization to go down from 16+ to 12+. The FDA needs to review and approve the amendment and that’s expected to take at least a few weeks. Should be done by May 1. The 5-11 year old trials have already started for both Pfizer and Moderna and JnJ is doing a larger trial all the way down to 6 months. Depending on how long it takes to get the trials fully enrolled it’s likely we would have some results as early as August. The hope is that all school age kids can get a vaccine around the start of school next year.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wish I shared your optimism but in theory it sounds great. I wish it could be that way. The simple fact there is many younger people who have no interest in the vaccine. I think we are a long way from this ending yet. I see fall the earliest. There is still a lot of push back to get the vaccine.


I don't see cases dropping that quickly. I'm amazed at how many keep dismissing the under 40 crowd driving the numbers now. I guess those over 40 don't care.

In all of the polling I’ve seen age doesn‘t have a large disparity. 65+ is much higher than under 65 but between 40 and 65 has no less reluctance than under 40. In a few polls young adults under 30 were higher than middle aged. I think the news coverage of Spring Break recently is skewing the perception of younger adults. Many want the vaccine, they are just now becoming eligible in a lot of places.

 

[Flugell]

we

alnost set in stone in the uk - and not just for large gatherings but for pubs ama restaurants as well. Boris has said it will be time limited for a year but no one believes him - tbh he’s not had a good track record of doing what he says he’s going to do. The trust rating in our govt seems to be very low right now

Sorry meant to press dislike and don’t know how to change it. The trust rating in the U.K. government is very high at the moment, mostly due to the effectiveness of the vaccine rollout. Almost everyone interviewed on TV is in favour of vaccine passports and in my own circle of friends and family it is 100%.
I am what would be described as a COVID-19 “flake” but with the secure knowledge that everyone I come into contact with has been vaccinated or tested negative within 24 hours this would allow me to live my life with a degree of normality that has been missing for the last 12 months. Without the security of the passports that is unlikely to happen.
I also wonder, probably unfairly, what people who are not in favour of passports are trying to hide?

 

[GoofGoof]

I see we are getting closer to agreement on the date this will be over. I still believe we are about to see a major drop in new cases due to the numbers being vaccinated.

I think we are right on pace which is great news. I’m still not sayimg the pandemic will end in April or May, just that we should start seeing a drop in cases. We are just about a month behind Israel in vaccinations and this is their curve:

 

[Tom P.]

2 days in a row over 4M doses administered and the 7 day average climbed to 3.07M. If we get the average up closer to 4M a day that could mean 100-120M doses given in April. Some will be second doses, but that would be enough to get an additional 20-25% of the population started on their first dose. We are at 31% of the overall population started now so north of 50% and pushing 60% at least starting to be vaccinated by May 1. That’s a very doable target. Around May 1 we will also add in the rest of the teen population so another 20M+ eligible for vaccines. The end is near, we just need to get over the finish line.

Also, keep in mind that the data shows you get about 80% protection about two weeks after the first dose. So it's not like everyone has to have their second dose before cases start dropping significantly. Add into that the fact that many of the doses are the single-shot J&J vaccine as well, and I think your dates make a lot of sense.

I wish I shared your optimism but in theory it sounds great. I wish it could be that way. The simple fact there is many younger people who have no interest in the vaccine. I think we are a long way from this ending yet. I see fall the earliest. There is still a lot of push back to get the vaccine.


I don't see cases dropping that quickly. I'm amazed at how many keep dismissing the under 40 crowd driving the numbers now. I guess those over 40 don't care.

I disagree. I think we are going to get to the numbers we need fairly quickly. The fact that every single week we are hitting new records with number of doses administered suggests to me that demand is not slowing down, despite any anecdotal evidence to the contrary. I think the media hypes the "vaccine hesitancy" more than it really exists. I still think @GoofGoof is being very reasonable in his optimism and estimates of dates.

 

[Tom P.]

That's where I think the vaccine passports come in.

I disagree. Vaccine passports are only relevant if you still have high community spread but you want to allow those who are vaccinated to get on with normal life. I know I am being quite an optimist, but I believe that is going to become a moot point in short order. I think by this summer, from a combination of the number we have vaccinated plus those who have natural immunity from having had Covid, you are going to see community spread drop low enough that we can just drop the mitigation measures altogether and not worry about anything like vaccine passports. I really believe the end of the pandemic is near.

 

[CatesMom]

I can't read the story and I'm not subscribing to the Washington Post to read it. What were the grounds for arrest? Trespassing?

I'm on Disney's side because it is private property and their rules to require the temperature check. Although, I'm not sure what is more useless in fighting COVID, temperature checks to enter an outdoor shopping mall or people who wear gloves but don't change them between interactions with people.

Yes, trespassing. Key facts: violator was from Baton Rouge, 47 years old, he argued he should "not be trespassed" because he paid $15,000 for his vacation, compared Disney security to Nazis and the mafia, and offered (too late) to take a temperature check.

 

[Jrb1979]

I disagree. Vaccine passports are only relevant if you still have high community spread but you want to allow those who are vaccinated to get on with normal life. I know I am being quite an optimist, but I believe that is going to become a moot point in short order. I think by this summer, from a combination of the number we have vaccinated plus those who have natural immunity from having had Covid, you are going to see community spread drop low enough that we can just drop the mitigation measures altogether and not worry about anything like vaccine passports. I really believe the end of the pandemic is near.

I agree the end is near. I think vaccine passports will be part of it. Not for every day life. I do see it being required for air travel, cruises, sporting events and concerts.

 

[jinx8402]

Pfizer released their results on the 12-15 year old trial last week and they are applying for an amendment to their emergency use authorization to go down from 16+ to 12+. The FDA needs to review and approve the amendment and that’s expected to take at least a few weeks. Should be done by May 1. The 5-11 year old trials have already started for both Pfizer and Moderna and JnJ is doing a larger trial all the way down to 6 months. Depending on how long it takes to get the trials fully enrolled it’s likely we would have some results as early as August. The hope is that all school age kids can get a vaccine around the start of school next year.

I wonder if the best strategy would be to get the J&J vaccine approved for school aged children, and do clinics at each school at the start of the school year. With a 1 shot, it will be easier to administer. Obviously, parents can decide to get the pfizer or Moderna for them outside of school if those are also approved.

 

[Think Tink]

My dad just got his J&J vaccine today! He’s very hesitant with needles so this made me extremely happy. Now everyone in my immediate family and 2 best friends have had at least their first dose! We are looking forward to doing some traveling this year and being around each other again. While the world may not be normal in the immediate future, I’m very glad to be able to hang out with my sister and family again

 

[Patcheslee]

I wonder if the best strategy would be to get the J&J vaccine approved for school aged children, and do clinics at each school at the start of the school year. With a 1 shot, it will be easier to administer. Obviously, parents can decide to get the pfizer or Moderna for them outside of school if those are also approved.

We'll do whatever we can get. It would be nice if DD12 could be vaccinated ASAP considering she'll still be in day camp come summer while I'm at work.
If things don't clear up before this coming school year she will age out of the Girls Inc program since they had to do away with teen programs due to capacity/restrictions.
Teens were helpers for activities, mentoring younger girls, help with concessions, etc. Something that's had positive impact on her for years.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wonder if the best strategy would be to get the J&J vaccine approved for school aged children, and do clinics at each school at the start of the school year. With a 1 shot, it will be easier to administer. Obviously, parents can decide to get the pfizer or Moderna for them outside of school if those are also approved.

Makes sense to me. JnJ has a lot of good uses like that being one and done and not having to be frozen.

 

[fgmnt]

I wonder if the best strategy would be to get the J&J vaccine approved for school aged children, and do clinics at each school at the start of the school year. With a 1 shot, it will be easier to administer. Obviously, parents can decide to get the pfizer or Moderna for them outside of school if those are also approved.

somewhat related: ideally, you could take the JnJ to college campuses right now and do this for college students. my opinion is obviously worth nothing but I would do that before an open registration.

 

[correcaminos]

I wonder if the best strategy would be to get the J&J vaccine approved for school aged children, and do clinics at each school at the start of the school year. With a 1 shot, it will be easier to administer. Obviously, parents can decide to get the pfizer or Moderna for them outside of school if those are also approved.

They are actually doing clinics here at our high school for 16+ not sure we need to wait on J&J. Just saying we can use what we have.