Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I am 100% vaccine. I think everyone that can get one should not think twice. My parents, both my uncles, and my grandmother already have had BOTH doses

However,

The VACCINE PASSPORT is going to be so much more complicated then we all think. First off the cards they give you showing you got vaccinated can be duplicated in about 2 minutes. So if Disney wants to accept those as proof, I am sure there will be tons of fakes out there.

If Disney DID require the vaccine, they would have to make exceptions for those that cant get it for medical reasons. Then you have people making up doctors notes and that is one big mess.

The IBM passport is good in theory but I can see it be taken to courts for HIPA violations, privacy laws etc........ All the stuff people like to sue over.

Like @Chi84 just said, most likely Disney will just say those that are not vaccinated "enter at your own risk"
For now with no vaccine passports, people like me who have the CDC card that proves I have gotten the two Moderna shots will show them as proof if WDW and other places require them. I know upon arrival in Hawaii at the airport, one shows the CDC card to airport officials and the person does not need to do the mandatory quarantine when arriving in HI.
WDW guests have faked many things I'm sure. Does one really think those all service dogs are really all legitimate?
 
Last edited:

bdearl41

Well-Known Member
It might not be a bad idea. What’s the harm in it?
Over time a great deal of harm. The reason we kick the flu most of the time is built up immune responses. It important that we do get mild sickness occasionally. See kids who go to daycare versus those that don’t. Once kindergarten hits the one that has been in daycare is there all year. The kid who hasn’t been exposed is out like 5 weeks
 

Polkadotdress

Well-Known Member
. We shouldn't social distance anymore than we need to beyond this pandemic. Its not healthy. That's no way of living. The human race wasn't designed as a species to stay inside months on end. Its not natural. There's going to be an entire generation who grew up during COVID and all they know is social distancing and working from home an entire generation that has absolutely no social skills etc. Once restrictions are lifted they are going to struggle with basic human interaction due to lack of development. Not good.
It's only been a year, which is hardly enough time for someone to "grow up with Covid" and "only know" social distancing.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Is that a rhetorical question? If you are only referring to the masking part you can make some sort of an argument. If you are talking about social distancing then there is enormous harm to the economy and lifestyles.
The masking part has much more then a “ sort of a argument “. You only have to look at the numbers of many Asian countries where a lot of the population masks up everyday for their own reasons. The numbers are stark compared to ours. With that said, the US and the people here will not do it. Although I’ve heard from many, my parents who are 80 and 79, and who have had both doses already have told me that they will wear masks still in stores and restaurants and don’t care what people think. So there will be people that do it.
As for the social distancing part, I’m not sure about you but places like Disney, I would love a little more room. 6 feet won’t happen but what the last year has shown me is that a little space is more relaxing. A little personal space is really nice without stepping on feet or people on top of you. Again, that won’t happen in Disney by I for one will be making my own space where I can.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
.... been here before. April-May 2020... numbers declining fast, people saying “we can be normal in a few weeks!”
Then again in September.
I didn't say "we can be normal in a few weeks." I said there would be loosening of restrictions IF the trend continues. Although I responded to the post with the article about masks, it was meant as a general reply to your general narrative essentially arguing that the vaccines aren't good enough and your friend at the CDC sees the situation in a very negative light and we are in for significantly more time of all kinds of restrictions.

read the post and read the context of what he was responding to.

Me: expert says we need masks for a few more months.
Him: No, that’s wrong, things will start changing 3/21

Now, as I’ve said all along — things are already changing. They will continue to change. But masks and some level of social distancing will be in place in mass gatherings for some time.. likely at least until the fall.
So let’s clear up any confusion:
Do you agree or disagree that WDW will have masking requirements and a level of social distancing until we basically reach herd immunity, hopefully by late summer or fall?
Or do you think masking and social distancing will/should be gone before the late summer?
I probably should have used 3/31 to illustrate the same time period from yesterday as it had been for the 73% decline from the peak until yesterday. As far as WDW, it depends on the rate of vaccinations and the combined effect of vaccinations with the natural decline in cases that has been happening.

I don't think you grasp the magnitude of the reduction in the infection rate without any significant percentage of the population vaccinated. To date, under 20 million people have been fully vaccinated and only 44 million have received the first shot. Outside of the 65+ population, you aren't going to see any effect on community spread yet. Once the younger population starts getting vaccinated in large numbers and it compounds on top of the natural immunity, it isn't outside of the realm of possibility for cases to be down to lower than they were on 5/31/20 by 5/31/21.

If that occurs, I wouldn't be surprised if WDW started relaxing policies. Maybe only requiring masks indoors and removing the ride capacity restrictions as a start.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I didn't say "we can be normal in a few weeks." I said there would be loosening of restrictions IF the trend continues. Although I responded to the post with the article about masks, it was meant as a general reply to your general narrative essentially arguing that the vaccines aren't good enough and your friend at the CDC sees the situation in a very negative light and we are in for significantly more time of all kinds of restrictions.


I probably should have used 3/31 to illustrate the same time period from yesterday as it had been for the 73% decline from the peak until yesterday. As far as WDW, it depends on the rate of vaccinations and the combined effect of vaccinations with the natural decline in cases that has been happening.

I don't think you grasp the magnitude of the reduction in the infection rate without any significant percentage of the population vaccinated. To date, under 20 million people have been fully vaccinated and only 44 million have received the first shot. Outside of the 65+ population, you aren't going to see any effect on community spread yet. Once the younger population starts getting vaccinated in large numbers and it compounds on top of the natural immunity, it isn't outside of the realm of possibility for cases to be down to lower than they were on 5/31/20 by 5/31/21.

If that occurs, I wouldn't be surprised if WDW started relaxing policies. Maybe only requiring masks indoors and removing the ride capacity restrictions as a start.

When did I say that vaccines weren’t good enough?? I said mere availability of vaccines is not sufficient — a critical mass of people have to actually get the vaccine. I said if enough people take vaccines, we will reach herd immunity in the next 6-9 months or so. At which point we will likely get rid of masks and social distancing. I said for the next several months, even vaccinated people should (and will be required to) wear masks at WDW..

so clear up any confusion... what is it you disagree with??
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I calculated the weekly numbers for the past two weeks in FL using a spreadsheet to figure out weekly new tests and new case positivity.

For the week of 1/24-1/30, there were 70,800 new cases, 846,155 new tests and 8.37% new case positivity for the week.

For the week of 1/31-2/6, there were 55,170 new cases, 766,606 new tests and 7.2% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week there was a 22% decrease in new cases on 9.4% fewer tests with a 13.99% decrease in new case positivity. Hopefully this trend will continue as vaccinations increase. I don't think the vaccinations have anything to do with this decrease as not even 10% of the population has received a first dose and barely over 3% have had both doses.

I updated my spreadsheet calculations for the week of 2/7-2/13:

For the week of 2/7-2/13, there were 48,669 new cases, 741,118 new tests and 6.57% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents an 11.8% decrease in new cases on 3.3% fewer tests with an 8.75% decrease in new case positivity.

The rate of decrease wasn't as rapid as the prior week over week data but so far it is still trending in the right direction.

Update for the week of 2/14-2/20:

For the week of 2/14-2/20, there were 41,443 new cases, 663,097 new tests and 6.25% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents a 14.9% decrease in new cases on 10.5% fewer tests with a 4.8% decrease in new case positivity.

The reduction in weekly new tests are likely due to the lower number of symptomatic cases. If you look at the sentinel monitoring of COVID-like illness Emergency Department visits, the trend has been a significant decrease. For the weeks I've been tracking this data, the new case positivity has been 8.37%, 7.2%, 6.57%, 6.25%. Extrapolating, the new case positivity should be under 5% in 3 weeks or so if the trends continue.
 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member
When did I say that vaccines weren’t good enough?? I said mere availability of vaccines is not sufficient — a critical mass of people have to actually get the vaccine. I said if enough people take vaccines, we will reach herd immunity in the next 6-9 months or so. At which point we will likely get rid of masks and social distancing. I said for the next several months, even vaccinated people should (and will be required to) wear masks at WDW..

so clear up any confusion... what is it you disagree with??
Not sure about everyone else, but I'm not sitting around waiting for anti-vaxxers to be coaxed into vaccinating. Once it's available to everyone who wants one, I'm done. At that point it should be up to them to protect themselves.
 

SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
Is that a rhetorical question? If you are only referring to the masking part you can make some sort of an argument. If you are talking about social distancing then there is enormous harm to the economy and lifestyles.

Correct.
And I’ve already discussed this ad naseum but it does expose the moral grey areas of some pounding the table for restrictions until the virus is basically eliminated
 

bdearl41

Well-Known Member
Not sure about everyone else, but I'm not sitting around waiting for anti-vaxxers to be coaxed into vaccinating. Once it's available to everyone who wants one, I'm done. At that point it should be up to them to protect themselves.
100% with you on this one. We wear masks and socially distance because it’s our only option now. Once the vaccine is readily available to everyone, it’s not longer our only option.
 

bdearl41

Well-Known Member
The masking part has much more then a “ sort of a argument “. You only have to look at the numbers of many Asian countries where a lot of the population masks up everyday for their own reasons. The numbers are stark compared to ours. With that said, the US and the people here will not do it. Although I’ve heard from many, my parents who are 80 and 79, and who have had both doses already have told me that they will wear masks still in stores and restaurants and don’t care what people think. So there will be people that do it.
As for the social distancing part, I’m not sure about you but places like Disney, I would love a little more room. 6 feet won’t happen but what the last year has shown me is that a little space is more relaxing. A little personal space is really nice without stepping on feet or people on top of you. Again, that won’t happen in Disney by I for one will be making my own space where I can.
So I have heard Asian countries and masking mentioned a lot and I think there is some misunderstanding here. As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in east Asia and a variety of nations there, it’s important to note that even during the winter it’s probably only 1-3% of the population that masks up. Often it’s those who are sick who wear the mask. Not those who are healthy. This misconception that they are masking up all the time just isn’t true.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Not sure about everyone else, but I'm not sitting around waiting for anti-vaxxers to be coaxed into vaccinating. Once it's available to everyone who wants one, I'm done. At that point it should be up to them to protect themselves.

Alas... that’s where there is a misunderstanding. If you’re the only person in group vaccinated... and you jump into the middle of a bunch of infectious people who haven’t been vaccinated, then you’re still at very real risk.

It‘s like if you drive carefully — you may still be killed by a reckless driver. But if everyone drives safely...

The only “safe” interaction is vaccinated person with vaccinated person. There, the risk of dangerous disease is infinitesimally small.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
So I have heard Asian countries and masking mentioned a lot and I think there is some misunderstanding here. As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in east Asia and a variety of nations there, it’s important to note that even during the winter it’s probably only 1-3% of the population that masks up. Often it’s those who are sick who wear the mask. Not those who are healthy. This misconception that they are masking up all the time just isn’t true.

Depends where in Asia, as well as the interaction. For example,I spent a month pre-pandemic in Hanoi. In crowds, on planes, etc, 20-50% would wear masks.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
So I have heard Asian countries and masking mentioned a lot and I think there is some misunderstanding here. As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in east Asia and a variety of nations there, it’s important to note that even during the winter it’s probably only 1-3% of the population that masks up. Often it’s those who are sick who wear the mask. Not those who are healthy. This misconception that they are masking up all the time just isn’t true.
Never said they were masking up all the time or the majority wore them. My point was they are more worn in Asia then anywhere else in the world, especially the US. There numbers for flu death rates per capita far exceed us.. the deaths from Covid per capita are lower then us, just meant that it means something. Again, this country would never do it but masks work in prevention of this stuff. I just read 3 articles on it after your post.
Again, the whole point of my post was in response to the post asking if we should just keep wearing masks after this is all over. Would it help with every airborne virus or things like that? Of course. Will we do it? Of course not. We can’t get anyone in this country to agree on anything anymore. Whether it’s for the best or not.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
And for anyone who says that’s not good enough, it’s been shown masks are only 76-78% successful at stopping transmission.

That comparison is meaningless. It’s about using the mix of the best tools available at any time. Nobody is saying masks are better than vaccines. Nobody is saying use masks instead of vaccines.
But guess what... if a person has 90% protection from a vaccine... AND they wear a 70% effective mask, then the combined effect is 97% protection. (Ahh, statistics 304 paying off).

and when we reach herd immunity, there is almost 100% protection...without a mask.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
Depends where in Asia, as well as the interaction. For example,I spent a month pre-pandemic in Hanoi. In crowds, on planes, etc, 20-50% would wear masks.
Don't care! Here in the U.S.A. since masks have proven of value in reducing spread it is recommended people wear them.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom