Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Your definition of risk is ridiculous, in my humble opinion. At 45 years old, my risk of dying of any cause within the next year is 0.33%. My risk of contracting COVID AND dying from it is lower than that even without vaccinations or if there had never been mitigation.

If I am vaccinated, the additional risk of me contracting and dying from COVID will be statistically irrelevant in the scheme of the risk I face just being alive.

That chart from Israel is based on statistical analysis by age and region. It is not based on official data which confirms that somebody actually was vaccinated, was infected after the two week period from the second shot and was hospitalized.

No.... that's the people who completed their vaccinations. There is a separate chart of those not vaccinated.

You can call my opinion ridiculous. Neither my opinion nor your opinion matters. What matters is the government policy as well as WDW policy. And they define the risk the same way I did.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

What matters is the government policy.

Imagine living your life this way.

 

[havoc315]

That's such a copout line that people like to throw around when they don't want to engage honestly.

"Covid is not the exact same thing as the flu" DOES NOT MEAN "Covid has nothing at all in common with the flu"

Me: "We can't build a football field here. We measured to build a soccer field three years ago and we don't have the space, plus the soil won't allow grass to grow."

You: "Football is NOT soccer."

Me: "Uh yeah, no kidding. I never said it was. But they share the requirement of a large rectangular grassy field of similar dimensions. They are different in many ways, but also have some things in common."

Covid has almost nothing in common with the flu. You may as well compare airplanes and motorcycles on the basis that they are both forms of transportation. Or comparing baseball and judo on the basis that they are both sports.

Talk about Covid on its own terms.

 

[havoc315]

Imagine living your life this way.

Obeying the law? Yes, imagine obeying the law.. what a terrible way to lead life.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Obeying the law? Yes, imagine obeying the law.. what a terrible way to lead life.

Oh interesting was there an act of Congress or state legislature that mandated masks and forced churches to close and restaurants to go out of business?

No?

None of this is "the law."

 

[havoc315]

No I think we as a society have tollerated the flu and that death rate for decades as a price for having society function normally and don’t see a reason to restrict society for another disease if the death rate is comparable.

"Covid is the the flu"... say it again and again. The flu is an amalgamation of multiple respiratory viruses that can be managed and reduced but can't be eliminated via vaccine. It does not permanently destroy lung tissue, doesn't cause blood clots, doesn't cause multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children.

 

[danlb_2000]

Which wasn't that the spirit behind the original 15 days to slow the spread? Lockdown, distance, all that, just to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the healthcare system? Not sorry for being selfish and saying that if cases are so low that no hospital system is overwhelmed that I'd rather be back to the lifestyle I had in 2019, not the depression of 2020.

Yes, but we learned that unless mitigation was continued we would go right back to the healthcare system being overwhelmed.

 

[havoc315]

Oh interesting was there an act of Congress or state legislature that mandated masks and forced churches to close and restaurants to go out of business?

No?

None of this is "the law."

Yes, it's the law. My town even passed a mask ordinance. States delegated emergency powers to governors who put in face restrictions. The CDC is legally empowered by Congress to make recommendations, which businesses can and should follow.

So yes, imagine... following the law, following the recommendations of public health experts, following the guidance from the CDC..... Imagine that. Imagine actual respect for Law and Order, as more than just words.

 

[Touchdown]

Covid has almost nothing in common with the flu. You may as well compare airplanes and motorcycles on the basis that they are both forms of transportation. Or comparing baseball and judo on the basis that they are both sports.

Talk about Covid on its own terms.

They are both respiratory viruses, they are comparable.

Covid is currently more easily spread and deadlier then the flu. I was talking about a day when vaccination rates will lead to a time when Covid prevalence and severity will decrease to the point where it’s mobility and mortality will likely be similar to the flu.

Given the mutations happening I think it is the height of arrogance to think we will be able to fully irradicate this virus. However, if it becomes a minor 3-5 day illness for a majority of the population that they get about once every 5 years or so I am perfectly happy with that outcome.

 

[havoc315]

Which wasn't that the spirit behind the original 15 days to slow the spread? Lockdown, distance, all that, just to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the healthcare system? Not sorry for being selfish and saying that if cases are so low that no hospital system is overwhelmed that I'd rather be back to the lifestyle I had in 2019, not the depression of 2020.

No. That was the spirit of the 15-days to slow the spread according to Trump and some others in his political circle. That was not the spirit to the experts who from the start, indicated far more aggressive measures were necessary.

Sadly, 500,000 Americans are dead already. We will likely lose another 100,000 or more before we reach herd immunity.

Had we properly managed this thing, we'd have half the deaths and a better economy, we'd have both.

 

[Touchdown]

"Covid is the the flu"... say it again and again. The flu is an amalgamation of multiple respiratory viruses that can be managed and reduced but can't be eliminated via vaccine. It does not permanently destroy lung tissue, doesn't cause blood clots, doesn't cause multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children.

No it’s not. That’s a cold. The flu is a disease caused by the influenza virus. And while it’s rarer currently then Covid now, it can still do all those things. So long as the vaccines succeed in making those severe outcomes in Covid as rare as they are in influenza infection it’s a win for humanity.

 

[havoc315]

They are both respiratory viruses, they are comparable.

Not according to the pulmonologists and infectious disease specialists I work with.
Covid is partly a respiratory virus, like the flu. But unlike the flu, it actually has far great multi-organ affects.
It operates nothing like the flu. The entire mechanism by how it affects the respiratory system and other systems is entirely different.

 

[danlb_2000]

So, you think that our science and medicine has gone backwards. We can no longer accomplish the same things we used to accomplish against viral pandemics?

And we are a long way off of typical flu deaths, which average about 20,000-30,000 annually.

And can't believe we still have to repeat this in 2021: "Covid is NOT the flu"

Science and medicine has not gone backwards, people have. Back at the start of the pandemic the country was pretty divided, but for a moment I thought that the virus would be a common enemy, would be something we could all agree on, and that everyone would step up do what was necessary to get it under control. I couldn't have been more wrong about that.

 

[DisneyCane]

This sounds an awful lot like the hoaxers from a year ago.

Ok, there are 330 million Americans. Let's look at a case fatality rate of 0.4%, spread across 330 million people, if every person got infected: 1.32 million deaths.
Now, let's assume there is 95% protection against death from the vaccine: that's still 66,000 deaths. Still significantly more than the flu in most years.

Now, if we reach herd immunity, via vaccines.... then we can likely reduce deaths to well under 3,000 Covid deaths per year.

The case fatality rate is not the infection fatality rate. The infection fatality rate is certainly lower, how much lower is debatable. It is impossible for the entire population to be infected because, at some point, herd immunity would kick in.

The protection of the vaccine against death appears to be significantly higher than 95%. The 95% number is preventing SYMPTOMS in the studies. Newer studies seem to indicate around 90% effective in preventing infections.

 

[havoc315]

No it’s not. That’s a cold. The flu is a disease caused by the influenza virus. And while it’s rarer currently then Covid now, it can still do all those things. So long as the vaccines succeed in making those severe outcomes in Covid as rare as they are in influenza infection it’s a win for humanity.

Are you aware of how many different influenza viruses there are?!?!?!
There are 4 influenza types, all of which have multiple sub-types. There are literally hundreds of different viruses that have been called "influenza." (Most famously, the Spanish Flu, but there are hundreds of others). That's why you can't have a single vaccine against influenza, and why vaccines don't cover all the types of influenza.

 

[Touchdown]

Not according to the pulmonologists and infectious disease specialists I work with.
Covid is partly a respiratory virus, like the flu. But unlike the flu, it actually has far great multi-organ affects.
It operates nothing like the flu. The entire mechanism by how it affects the respiratory system and other systems is entirely different.

We seem to be talking in circles, for one last attempt, Covid seems to cause, in some people, a hyper immune response that leads to severe systemic symptoms (blood clots, sepsis, multi system organ failure, acute respiratory failure) and permanent lung damage.

By all current accounts, the vaccines prevent essentially all cases of this ever happening. If you prevent that syndrome from happening then, and only then, will the clinical course of Covid resemble the clinical course of the flu (a 3-5 day illness with myalagias, fevers, coughing, dyspnea on exertion and fatigue) which we as a society have tolerated as a risk of engaging in society for millennia.

That is what I feel will be the realistic endpoint to this pandemic, I really think we may have a period of no infections this summer but if/when international travel opens up it will only be a matter of time until a varient comes back in the winter and infects vaccinated individuals giving them a mild illness.

Are we on the same page now?

Also yes I know there are different influenza viruses but they are all influenza viruses much like there are thousands of different types of domestic dogs but they are all dogs.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

So yes, imagine... following the law, following the recommendations of public health experts, following the guidance from the CDC..... Imagine that. Imagine actual respect for Law and Order, as more than just words.

Expert 1 says the exact opposite thing as Expert 2. Expert 3 says the exact opposite thing today as he did two weeks ago.

I trust science, but I don't have any reason to trust our scientists after the past year. They've proven over and over again that they either don't know what they're talking about or they're flat-out lying to us. Absent compelling evidence that the scientists *are* competent and honest, yeah I think we should err on the side of people being allowed to go to church, get married, mourn their dead, and provide for their families.

I wear a mask when a business has a rule about them, and I'm going to get the vaccine when it's my time, but what's been done to us over the past year has been nothing short of evil.

 

[havoc315]

The case fatality rate is not the infection fatality rate. The infection fatality rate is certainly lower, how much lower is debatable. It is impossible for the entire population to be infected because, at some point, herd immunity would kick in.

The protection of the vaccine against death appears to be significantly higher than 95%. The 95% number is preventing SYMPTOMS in the studies. Newer studies seem to indicate around 90% effective in preventing infections.

For the entire population, the IFR is likely in the vicinity of about 0.5% Some estimates have it as high as 1%. CFR is currently 1.77% in the US.

Yes, you are correct.... the protection against death is higher than the 95%, but it's way premature to really know, since death is a lagging indicator. Israel is the first place that has widespread vaccination -- They are still seeing serious Covid cases among vaccinated people, though far far fewer. Give it a couple months, see how many of them die. Then we will know with greater certainty. One pre-publication study from Israel is putting the protection from death also at about 95%, but it really is early.

And of course, we are primarily talking about the Pfizer vaccine that has the most information. JNJ is significantly less effective, and many Americans will likely rely on the JNJ. And Pfizer and Moderna are also going to be less effective against newer variants, which raises a lot of questions.

Comes down to this: I'm quite confident we can use vaccines to reach her immunity. But there is this pervasive false confidence of "once I'm vaccinated, I can go back to normal."

There are mostly way too many unknowns. Tell me, how effective is the JNJ vaccine against the South Africa variant? I'm not aware of any conclusive data yet, but the JNJ vaccine has shown only 57% efficiency in places where the South Africa strain is dominant. But you're touting the 90-95% effectiveness... and I'm quite certain that many of the vaccines against many of the varients are far far less effective than that. So tell me, how is your thinking affected if you receive a vaccine that is 57% effective?

 

[DisneyCane]

No.... that's the people who completed their vaccinations. There is a separate chart of those not vaccinated.

You can call my opinion ridiculous. Neither my opinion nor your opinion matters. What matters is the government policy as well as WDW policy. And they define the risk the same way I did.

From https://abcnews.go.com/International/countries-learn-israels-covid-vaccine-rollout/story?id=75930083, "To examine the effect of widespread vaccinations among older Israelis, researchers from Weizmann Institute of Science, Tel-Aviv University and Technion analyzed Israeli Ministry of Health data on hospitalizations and PCR testing from March 2020 to February 2021. The researchers found that infections fell among all age groups between between mid-January and mid-February, but the effect was most striking among the largely vaccinated group -- people 60 or older." This is not looking at individuals who completed their vaccinations, it is statistical analysis based on age group.

To maybe convince you that you are wrong about the "very real risk" of severe illness in people who are vaccinated, the story references another study which actually looks at 600,000 people who were vaccinated. It states, "While peer-reviewed published results from the study are not yet available, data from Clalit's study are showing a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID infections among those vaccinated and that those individuals also were 92% less likely to develop severe illness than those not vaccinated."

Doing the math, the vaccinated were 94% less likely to have any symptoms at all and among the 6% who did, they were 92% less likely to develop severe illness. That calculates to the vaccinated having a 99.52% lower likelihood of developing a severe illness. Deaths will only be a fraction of the severe illnesses.

Neither the Federal Government nor Disney has defined acceptable risk to mean the risk of dying from COVID is equal to or lower than the risk of dying from the measles. They have only defined that the the current risk with limited availability of vaccine doses is too high to change policies.

 

[havoc315]

Expert 1 says the exact opposite thing as Expert 2. Expert 3 says the exact opposite thing today as he did two weeks ago.

I trust science, but I don't have any reason to trust our scientists after the past year. They've proven over and over again that they either don't know what they're talking about or they're flat-out lying to us. Absent compelling evidence that the scientists *are* competent and honest, yeah I think we should err on the side of people being allowed to go to church, get married, mourn their dead, and provide for their families.

I wear a mask when a business has a rule about them, and I'm going to get the vaccine when it's my time, but what's been done to us over the past year has been nothing short of evil.

There I'll disagree with you. The experts have been very consistent with the caveat that science is not static, recommendations can change as more is learned. Evil is those who have chosen to attack the scientists and public health officials, who have lied about them and defamed them, and have failed to take adequate mitigation measures causing hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths. It's truly Un-American, immoral and evil.