Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

Again, it depends on how you define "effective". If "effective" = not getting seriously ill or dying, then the vaccines are 100%.

The 90/95% number for both Pfizer and Moderna is for people not showing any symptoms of illness.

 

[havoc315]

Again, it depends on how you define "effective". If "effective" = not getting seriously ill or dying, then the vaccines are 100%.

No they aren’t 100%. In fact, dozens of fully vaccinated individuals are hospitalized with Covid in Israel. That’s better than the thousand hospitalized unvaccinated. But it’s definitely not 100%.

 

[havoc315]

The 90/95% number for both Pfizer and Moderna is for people not showing any symptoms of illness.

Correct. Some may have asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic infection. The remaining 5-10% get symptomatic disease. In -most- cases moderate disease. In some cases, severe.

 

[Chi84]

I am 100% vaccine. I think everyone that can get one should not think twice. My parents, both my uncles, and my grandmother already have had BOTH doses

However,

The VACCINE PASSPORT is going to be so much more complicated then we all think. First off the cards they give you showing you got vaccinated can be duplicated in about 2 minutes. So if Disney wants to accept those as proof, I am sure there will be tons of fakes out there.

If Disney DID require the vaccine, they would have to make exceptions for those that cant get it for medical reasons. Then you have people making up doctors notes and that is one big mess.

The IBM passport is good in theory but I can see it be taken to courts for HIPA violations, privacy laws etc........ All the stuff people like to sue over.

Like @Chi84 just said, most likely Disney will just say those that are not vaccinated "enter at your own risk"

I don’t see HIPAA violations because you would be divulging your own information, among other considerations (HIPAA has very specific applicability.) Honestly, I don’t think the laws will provide the biggest challenge for vaccine passports - the challenges will most likely be practical or social ones.

 

[DCBaker]

Vaccine status for the country via Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker* -

*New notice on the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker site, linked below with more explanation -

"Due to a significant change in CDC’s reporting methodology, we are no longer able to include data obtained directly from states in our analysis. The CDC’s update results in a sudden change in reported vaccinations in some states. Data reported by the CDC may not update as quickly as some states, which will cause a temporary dip in our overall U.S. daily rate."

Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker

 

[havoc315]

I am 100% vaccine. I think everyone that can get one should not think twice. My parents, both my uncles, and my grandmother already have had BOTH doses

However,

The VACCINE PASSPORT is going to be so much more complicated then we all think. First off the cards they give you showing you got vaccinated can be duplicated in about 2 minutes. So if Disney wants to accept those as proof, I am sure there will be tons of fakes out there.

If Disney DID require the vaccine, they would have to make exceptions for those that cant get it for medical reasons. Then you have people making up doctors notes and that is one big mess.

The IBM passport is good in theory but I can see it be taken to courts for HIPA violations, privacy laws etc........ All the stuff people like to sue over.

Like @Chi84 just said, most likely Disney will just say those that are not vaccinated "enter at your own risk"

That like saying passports and drivers licenses can be duplicated.
And they won’t be physical cards. It’s going to be IBM blockchain technology connecting Federal database to your identity.
It’s not a card you run through a photocopier.

 

[mmascari]

That like saying passports and drivers licenses can be duplicated.
And they won’t be physical cards. It’s going to be IBM blockchain technology connecting Federal database to your identity.
It’s not a card you run through a photocopier.

Um, they can be.

I mean, you’re not likely to fool customs agents.

But, how many 18-20 year olds have gotten drinks using a fake drivers license?

As the reward for proof increases in value, the effort and cost used to get a fake will go up too. Doubtful you fool Customs, but a business isn’t going to have the same validation support.

Nobody really wants a national id that checks in with a central database every time you go someplace. That’s invasive tracking beyond anything we have today.

 

[danlb_2000]

That like saying passports and drivers licenses can be duplicated.
And they won’t be physical cards. It’s going to be IBM blockchain technology connecting Federal database to your identity.
It’s not a card you run through a photocopier.

I will be interesting to see the backlash against that.

 

[Mark52479]

That like saying passports and drivers licenses can be duplicated.
And they won’t be physical cards. It’s going to be IBM blockchain technology connecting Federal database to your identity.
It’s not a card you run through a photocopier.

Lol when I was younger I had 3 fake drivers licenses that I used. Lol those were the days.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I think I can say with some confidence that we will reach herd immunity before the 50th. Disney probably is itching to loosen restrictions before then.

 

[DisneyCane]

While there are a hypothetical 30% that might not choose to be vaccinated, what about those who can’t? Or those in which the vaccine is far less effective due to underlying immune suppression? Is it “too bad, so sad” for them too?

Unfortunately, somebody who has an underlying immune suppression is also susceptible to countless other diseases. Somebody in that situation will have to take precautions (socially distance from people, wear an N95 respirator, etc.) if they wish to be as protected as possible.

There are people who can't take the flu shot due to allergies or other reasons. The world doesn't stop to make sure they can't get the flu.

 

[DisneyCane]

This article by an actual public health expert best explains where we are going over the next few months and why masking will be required for quite a while longer:

Ask Dr. Hamblin: So When Can We Stop Wearing Masks?

Hopefully one day, getting vaccinated will mean you no longer need a mask. But not yet.

www.google.com

All due respect to this "actual public health expert," but the seven day rolling average of new COVID cases in the US is down 73% since 1/11. If that continues and it is down another 73% by 3/21 "we" aren't going anywhere except loosened restrictions. This decrease has happened without a significant percentage of the population fully vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

Um, they can be.

I mean, you’re not likely to fool customs agents.

But, how many 18-20 year olds have gotten drinks using a fake drivers license?

As the reward for proof increases in value, the effort and cost used to get a fake will go up too. Doubtful you fool Customs, but a business isn’t going to have the same validation support.

Nobody really wants a national id that checks in with a central database every time you go someplace. That’s invasive tracking beyond anything we have today.

WDW already requires adults to present photo ID. You already need a secure ID to fly

And while it wasn’t too hard to copy/forge/fake an ID 20 years ago...
Today’s drivers licenses are extremely hard to forge.

You may say “nobody wants” but we already have it.

We are likely getting vaccine passports within the next year, only question is what will they be required for. Just for international travel, or more.

 

[havoc315]

All due respect to this "actual public health expert," but the seven day rolling average of new COVID cases in the US is down 73% since 1/11. If that continues and it is down another 73% by 3/21 "we" aren't going anywhere except loosened restrictions. This decrease has happened without a significant percentage of the population fully vaccinated.

.... been here before. April-May 2020... numbers declining fast, people saying “we can be normal in a few weeks!”
Then again in September.

 

[havoc315]

Um, they can be.

I mean, you’re not likely to fool customs agents.

But, how many 18-20 year olds have gotten drinks using a fake drivers license?

As the reward for proof increases in value, the effort and cost used to get a fake will go up too. Doubtful you fool Customs, but a business isn’t going to have the same validation support.

Nobody really wants a national id that checks in with a central database every time you go someplace. That’s invasive tracking beyond anything we have today.

You can’t fool customs because they get scanned. Which WDW could do just as easily.

But that’s besides the point. You may as well as be saying, “bars don’t check IDs... police don’t check drivers licenses... since they might get faked.”

I recall a year ago, people telling me WDW wouldn’t do temp checks since they aren’t 100% reliable.

 

[Chi84]

.... been here before. April-May 2020... numbers declining fast, people saying “we can be normal in a few weeks!”
Then again in September.

The vaccine changes things.

 

[havoc315]

The vaccine changes things.

Yes.. when we reach herd immunity. Which is months away.

Find 1 epidemiologist who says we are weeks away from normalizing.

 

[Chi84]

Yes.. when we reach herd immunity. Which is months away.

Find 1 epidemiologist who says we are weeks away from normalizing.

Well that’s certainly a straw man argument. Where did you see a statement that we are weeks away from normalizing?

 

[havoc315]

And speak of timing....
As a model of how to re-open as you vaccinate, Israel is requiring a vaccination passport for many public locations.

Israel’s reopening plan: Vaccine passports required for entry

Venues like gyms, hotels and swimming pools in Israel are accessible only to people who are fully vaccinated. Other countries have announced plans to roll out vaccine passports.

www.google.com

 

[havoc315]

Well that’s certainly a straw man argument. Where did you see a statement that we are weeks away from normalizing?

I was responding to someone who said we would be normalizing by 3/21: 4 weeks from now.

I completely agree the vaccines, if delivered to a point of herd immunity, could let us normalize in a matter of months.
My argument is with those claiming WDW will stop masks and social distancing as soon as vaccines are widely available in April/May.