Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

The US National 7 day average for vaccine doses is now officially over 1M doses. 1.3M doses today...first weekend day over 1M and 4 straight days over 1.3M. Keep em coming.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Patcheslee]

100% agree about the tracing to suit their needs. I have a class that’s now down to 2 kids who aren’t quarantined. And we don’t do quarantining of kids sitting near each other in class or whole classes. So they all magically got exposed at the same time by people outside of school... sounds quite shady to me. If schools wanted to ensure trust they’d do testing like colleges or even sewer tests to get a real gage of how much virus is in the building.

Our school sent out letters back in October due to parents keeping their kids home if anyone in the house was pending a test result. Unless it's a confirmed case they are to attend as normal, they can't do virtual learning the days they are assigned to be in the classroom and will be marked absent.
Buses they just quarantine everyone who rides it. No assigned seats.
They don't require testing or quarantine if a kid shows symptoms to return to school, just 72 hours without symptoms. BUT if a kid is pending test results they have to wait for the results to return.
They've pretty much reverted to elementary practice for 6th grade here. Once they get to school each bus has an assigned reporting area or breakfast area each kid has to sit on a 6ft from each other until released by rows to report straight to homeroom. From homeroom the teacher has to dismiss kids individually to go to lockers and get everything for the first 4 classes. Each passing period they have to walk single file on the right hand side of the hallway with teachers.
Lunch they have to line up again and be walked to the lunch room and have assigned seats all facing forward. After they're done eating the kids are dismissed individually again to throw away trash and report to their next class. From that class the teacher walks them to recess where they can stand and talk, no contact sports, playground off limits. The same with the rest of the day, most their movements are controlled much more strict than 6th grade normally would be here. No restroom use during passing periods, need to use restroom have to get on chromebook and request a virtual pass, same with fountains. There are 4 hallways and kids are not allowed in any they aren't assigned to.
End of the day bus she goes to girls club and all the girls in her grade stay in the same "pod" for activities. There's only 5 of them so easy to keep together.
Honestly I don't see how DD is handling the structure, but she didn't know the normal "you're in middle school, here's your schedule, locker combination, restrooms are here and here, don't be late to class" intro I had. It can't be too horrible if she admitted to hugging the school building when they came back from winter break though lol

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is 'not great'

Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, Dr. Anthony Fauci said.

www.cnbc.com

According to Fauci, “scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% would be acceptable too.” The article is from August 2020. Just saying that sometimes things come out better than predicted. That’s science - even Dr. Fauci couldn’t predict how effective the vaccines turned out to be. We don’t always have to look on the gloomy side.

Not looking on the gloomy side here. Every day is more positive then the last day with vaccines on the way.
It’s great that science was better then he predicted. Doesn’t make him wrong, was just his observation. He’s been doing it for over 50 years and I would bet with the things he has opinions on, he is on the upper end of usually right.

Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.

Background information and profile of NIAID Director, Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.

www.niaid.nih.gov

With credentials like these in that link, I’m listening and learning from him.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not looking on the gloomy side here. Every day is more positive then the last day with vaccines on the way.
It’s great that science was better then he predicted. Doesn’t make him wrong, was just his observation. He’s been doing it for over 50 years and I would bet with the things he has been on the upper end of usually right.

Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.

Background information and profile of NIAID Director, Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.

www.niaid.nih.gov

With credentials like these in that link, I’m listening and learning from him.

Technically he was not wrong. The vaccines aren’t 98%+ effective

The efficacy of those vaccines is nothing short of a modern scientific miracle...now we just need to get them into people’s arms.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Once they got these masks on our faces, they were never going to allow us to take them off.

And if that were the case...how does this violate you personally?

I’m gearing up for many positive posts like this coming soon from everywhere. We are finally seeing a drop in cases and hospitalizations are down for several weeks now. We are still above 5% positive right now but under 10 and closing in on 5.

Pressure is really on to make this happen now. First: no longer an excuse in the US except the losers like rick scott

Second, the variants make vaccinations way more of a necessity now or we’ll torpedo the whole year.

Time to throttle down.

This is great!!! There a lot of chatter from the experts that this thing may last for years. Here’s hoping the experts are wrong again...

You really sound like a jack...it’s sad that this gives you e-jollies

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not looking on the gloomy side here. Every day is more positive then the last day with vaccines on the way.
It’s great that science was better then he predicted. Doesn’t make him wrong, was just his observation. He’s been doing it for over 50 years and I would bet with the things he has been on the upper end of usually right.

Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.

Background information and profile of NIAID Director, Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.

www.niaid.nih.gov

With credentials like these in that link, I’m listening and learning from him.

Only the “wrong all the time losers” aren’t listening...

But they’re wrong all the time...and they lost.

That still is so uplifting

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Technically he was not wrong. The vaccines aren’t 98%+ effective

The efficacy of those vaccines is nothing short of a modern scientific miracle...now we just need to get them into people’s arms.

Call your senator...

I’m talking toomey...not Bob

 

[danlb_2000]

Technically he was not wrong. The vaccines aren’t 98%+ effective

The efficacy of those vaccines is nothing short of a modern scientific miracle...now we just need to get them into people’s arms.

Even better when you consider that at least one, if not both, are 100% effective in preventing death from the virus based on the study outcome.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Even better when you consider that at least one, if not both, are 100% effective in preventing death from the virus based on the study outcome.

...what about if you mix it with hydroxychloriquine on the rocks?

 

[Shouldigo12]

...what about if you mix it with hydroxychloriquine on the rocks?

Throw a little bleach in that drink and you're golden.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Throw a little bleach in that drink and you're golden.

I looked that up in my mixology book...

It’s called the “Disgraced Con Man”
And you can do it frozen too

 

[hopemax]

I don’t get your point. I‘m not relying on anything, the cases are what they are whether it’s due to a new variant or not. If the UK variant is already here (which has been proven in multiple states now) then it almost certainly is responsible for some of the current surge in cases since it’s proven to spread more than the previous versions of the virus. You are also relying on a big “if” saying if the UK variant isn’t here yet that cases will get much worse. That’s possible, but just as big an ”if” as what I said.

Nobody is saying don’t take precautions, not sure how you got that from my post. As far as believing the vaccine can beat the virus, we can agree to disagree. I believe that if we get enough people vaccinated we can and will reach herd immunity.

Really, you don't remember March 2020? When every other post here was, "Oh, so THAT's what I had in November 2019, December 2019, January 2019." When every other poster was convinced that when the serology results came in that we would see that a lot of people already had this coronavirus and so those of us that were saying this was going to be a thing, and a big thing were...same as now: ruining everyone's good vibes.

That's why I am getting from several recent posts. People are looking at December and January's horrible numbers and looking at the UK variant and thinking THAT'S why it got so bad, as if it's already baked into our numbers, and they're dropping so we're good. And I am saying the same thing as I said back then... we are too early in the cycle for the variant to be *driving* the level of infection. And that is NOT the same as saying it's not here. Of course, it is here, but it takes a certain number of cycles of transmission to really kick into gear and start dominating the numbers. Experts say in the US, the variant is responsible for only 1% of our recent case load. That's all.

I was going to post the math earlier, but I didn't think anyone would care, or convince anyone of anything they didn't want to think about, but whatever. And these are not *my* numbers, but written about and described by the experts based on the math. The UK variant has taken thing from R=1.1 to R=1.5, and I'm betting most people don't think that that small .4 change is that big of a deal. But this is what it means:

Old, regular COVID, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 2,593 new infections after 10 cycles.

UK variant, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 57,665 new infections after 10 cycles.

Doctors and experts tend to notice those kind of jumps.

Cases have been bad, but they haven't accelerated THAT bad. Nov/Dec/Jan was mostly holiday-driven, American hubris, regular COVID with a cherry chaser of UK variant. The situation improved when the pressure "to gather" eased.

And really, the only explanation you can think of for me bringing up precautions, when it wasn't in your post, was that it had something to do with your post? I brought it up as a predictor for what I think will happen over the next 3 month, based on what Americans did over the last several months, as to why I am not more short-term optimistic. It had nothing to do with you.

So my predictions:

infections: We have one more surge to get through, when UK variant becomes dominant (experts predict end Feb/beginning of March)

behavior modifications to slow spread: resistance high

vaccinations: too late for the millions of people in phase 2/3 to avoid illness from this surge (just because phase 1 folks, don't die, doesn't mean hospitalizations and long-COVID complications cease to matter)

herd immunity: eventually, but irrelevant to the discussion for predicting what will happen in the next 3 months. Your "disagreement" with me about vaccines vs virus is overlooking that we are talking about completely different timelines. Once again, I am speaking to the next 3 months, only. So don't try to paint me as someone who lacks faith in a long term, positive outcome.

I know the IHME analysis says the US has peaked, but they also said their model does not include predictions of ANY of the variants. So it's more this wave has peaked. Last April's peak didn't mean it was over, last summer's peak didn't mean it was over, etc.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Really, you don't remember March 2020? When every other post here was, "Oh, so THAT's what I had in November 2019, December 2019, January 2019." When every other poster was convinced that when the serology results came in that we would see that a lot of people already had this coronavirus and so those of us that were saying this was going to be a thing, and a big thing were...same as now: ruining everyone's good vibes.

That's why I am getting from several recent posts. People are looking at December and January's horrible numbers and looking at the UK variant and thinking THAT'S why it got so bad, as if it's already baked into our numbers, and they're dropping so we're good. And I am saying the same thing as I said back then... we are too early in the cycle for the variant to be *driving* the level of infection. And that is NOT the same as saying it's not here. Of course, it is here, but it takes a certain number of cycles of transmission to really kick into gear and start dominating the numbers. Experts say in the US, the variant is responsible for only 1% of our recent case load. That's all.

I was going to post the math earlier, but I didn't think anyone would care, or convince anyone of anything they didn't want to think about, but whatever. And these are not *my* numbers, but written about and described by the experts based on the math. The UK variant has taken thing from R=1.1 to R=1.5, and I'm betting most people don't think that that small .4 change is that big of a deal. But this is what it means:

Old, regular COVID, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 2,593 new infections after 10 cycles.

UK variant, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 57,665 new infections after 10 cycles.

Doctors and experts tend to notice those kind of jumps.

Cases have been bad, but they haven't accelerated THAT bad. Nov/Dec/Jan was mostly holiday-driven, American hubris, regular COVID with a cherry chaser of UK variant. The situation improved when the pressure "to gather" eased.

And really, the only explanation you can think of for me bringing up precautions, when it wasn't in your post, was that it had something to do with your post? I brought it up as a predictor for what I think will happen over the next 3 month, based on what Americans did over the last several months, as to why I am not more short-term optimistic. It had nothing to do with you.

So my predictions:

infections: We have one more surge to get through, when UK variant becomes dominant (experts predict end Feb/beginning of March)

behavior modifications to slow spread: resistance high

vaccinations: too late for the millions of people in phase 2/3 to avoid illness from this surge (just because phase 1 folks, don't die, doesn't mean hospitalizations and long-COVID complications cease to matter)

herd immunity: eventually, but irrelevant to the discussion for predicting what will happen in the next 3 months. Your "disagreement" with me about vaccines vs virus is overlooking that we are talking about completely different timelines. Once again, I am speaking to the next 3 months, only. So don't try to paint me as someone who lacks faith in a long term, positive outcome.

I know the IHME analysis says the US has peaked, but they also said their model does not include predictions of ANY of the variants. So it's more this wave has peaked. Last April's peak didn't mean it was over, last summer's peak didn't mean it was over, etc.

I interpret this the same way...

Vaccines aside...we could see a very large - highly inconvenient for the important things (park hoping, fastpasses, parades, dessert parties) - spike in case in the extra couple of months with variants.

The incoming government knows...which is why they are quietly pleading to just rip the bandaid off on the vaccines - just get it done for chrissakes...which means the obstructors
Are lining up again...

We’re gonna hear a lot of the “tired” stuff...

Hospitalizations...hospital capacity...school closings...bad economy numbers.

 

[FeelsSoGoodToBeBad]

Woohoo!!! Illinois's 7 day rolling positivity rate is down to 4.9% and dropping! And vaccinations are only just beginning for 65 and older on Monday!

Light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter and brighter!

Hello again from Region 4! I cannot WAIT for my region to stay below 8% positivity, but the real issue is getting the hospital bed availability to maintain.

 

[LittleBuford]

Really, you don't remember March 2020? When every other post here was, "Oh, so THAT's what I had in November 2019, December 2019, January 2019." When every other poster was convinced that when the serology results came in that we would see that a lot of people already had this coronavirus and so those of us that were saying this was going to be a thing, and a big thing were...same as now: ruining everyone's good vibes.

That's why I am getting from several recent posts. People are looking at December and January's horrible numbers and looking at the UK variant and thinking THAT'S why it got so bad, as if it's already baked into our numbers, and they're dropping so we're good. And I am saying the same thing as I said back then... we are too early in the cycle for the variant to be *driving* the level of infection. And that is NOT the same as saying it's not here. Of course, it is here, but it takes a certain number of cycles of transmission to really kick into gear and start dominating the numbers. Experts say in the US, the variant is responsible for only 1% of our recent case load. That's all.

I was going to post the math earlier, but I didn't think anyone would care, or convince anyone of anything they didn't want to think about, but whatever. And these are not *my* numbers, but written about and described by the experts based on the math. The UK variant has taken thing from R=1.1 to R=1.5, and I'm betting most people don't think that that small .4 change is that big of a deal. But this is what it means:

Old, regular COVID, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 2,593 new infections after 10 cycles.

UK variant, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 57,665 new infections after 10 cycles.

Doctors and experts tend to notice those kind of jumps.

Cases have been bad, but they haven't accelerated THAT bad. Nov/Dec/Jan was mostly holiday-driven, American hubris, regular COVID with a cherry chaser of UK variant. The situation improved when the pressure "to gather" eased.

And really, the only explanation you can think of for me bringing up precautions, when it wasn't in your post, was that it had something to do with your post? I brought it up as a predictor for what I think will happen over the next 3 month, based on what Americans did over the last several months, as to why I am not more short-term optimistic. It had nothing to do with you.

So my predictions:

infections: We have one more surge to get through, when UK variant becomes dominant (experts predict end Feb/beginning of March)

behavior modifications to slow spread: resistance high

vaccinations: too late for the millions of people in phase 2/3 to avoid illness from this surge (just because phase 1 folks, don't die, doesn't mean hospitalizations and long-COVID complications cease to matter)

herd immunity: eventually, but irrelevant to the discussion for predicting what will happen in the next 3 months. Your "disagreement" with me about vaccines vs virus is overlooking that we are talking about completely different timelines. Once again, I am speaking to the next 3 months, only. So don't try to paint me as someone who lacks faith in a long term, positive outcome.

I know the IHME analysis says the US has peaked, but they also said their model does not include predictions of ANY of the variants. So it's more this wave has peaked. Last April's peak didn't mean it was over, last summer's peak didn't mean it was over, etc.

I’m not looking forward to March:

CDC Warns New U.K. Coronavirus Variant Is Spreading Fast In The U.S.

It appears to be 50% more infectious, and researchers predict the new coronavirus variant could start to dominate in the U.S. by March. The time to prepare is now, they say.

www.npr.org

 

[correcaminos]

Really, you don't remember March 2020? When every other post here was, "Oh, so THAT's what I had in November 2019, December 2019, January 2019." When every other poster was convinced that when the serology results came in that we would see that a lot of people already had this coronavirus and so those of us that were saying this was going to be a thing, and a big thing were...same as now: ruining everyone's good vibes.

That's why I am getting from several recent posts. People are looking at December and January's horrible numbers and looking at the UK variant and thinking THAT'S why it got so bad, as if it's already baked into our numbers, and they're dropping so we're good. And I am saying the same thing as I said back then... we are too early in the cycle for the variant to be *driving* the level of infection. And that is NOT the same as saying it's not here. Of course, it is here, but it takes a certain number of cycles of transmission to really kick into gear and start dominating the numbers. Experts say in the US, the variant is responsible for only 1% of our recent case load. That's all.

I was going to post the math earlier, but I didn't think anyone would care, or convince anyone of anything they didn't want to think about, but whatever. And these are not *my* numbers, but written about and described by the experts based on the math. The UK variant has taken thing from R=1.1 to R=1.5, and I'm betting most people don't think that that small .4 change is that big of a deal. But this is what it means:

Old, regular COVID, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 2,593 new infections after 10 cycles.

UK variant, starting with 1000 infections, will translate to 57,665 new infections after 10 cycles.

Doctors and experts tend to notice those kind of jumps.

Cases have been bad, but they haven't accelerated THAT bad. Nov/Dec/Jan was mostly holiday-driven, American hubris, regular COVID with a cherry chaser of UK variant. The situation improved when the pressure "to gather" eased.

And really, the only explanation you can think of for me bringing up precautions, when it wasn't in your post, was that it had something to do with your post? I brought it up as a predictor for what I think will happen over the next 3 month, based on what Americans did over the last several months, as to why I am not more short-term optimistic. It had nothing to do with you.

So my predictions:

infections: We have one more surge to get through, when UK variant becomes dominant (experts predict end Feb/beginning of March)

behavior modifications to slow spread: resistance high

vaccinations: too late for the millions of people in phase 2/3 to avoid illness from this surge (just because phase 1 folks, don't die, doesn't mean hospitalizations and long-COVID complications cease to matter)

herd immunity: eventually, but irrelevant to the discussion for predicting what will happen in the next 3 months. Your "disagreement" with me about vaccines vs virus is overlooking that we are talking about completely different timelines. Once again, I am speaking to the next 3 months, only. So don't try to paint me as someone who lacks faith in a long term, positive outcome.

I know the IHME analysis says the US has peaked, but they also said their model does not include predictions of ANY of the variants. So it's more this wave has peaked. Last April's peak didn't mean it was over, last summer's peak didn't mean it was over, etc.

Where I live we have a variant similar to the UK one, but they believe it is native to our state and not brought over by international travel. Our numbers started jumping exponentially before the holidays. Did it cause the spike or did it not? So far they can only speculate. The UK variant is not the only mutation out there. We hit our 3rd wave here. Dropping off decently locally this past week. I get your comments, but you cannot ignore that the virus is mutating similarly on its own, which is not unsurprising either. When we reach herd immunity no one knows, but they can guess.

 

[Polkadotdress]

@Sirwalterraleigh and @hopemax

YES! This is why I am so hypercritical of the vaccine rollout, since I too foresee a very bad period heading our way. I feel as if I've been lucky up to this point, to keep myself safe. But I worry those odds won't continue...

And stories like the one I read about California this morning, stating that vaccine roll out is so slow they believe it will take until June (June!!!) just to vaccine their +65 group, just fill me with dread.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I interpret this the same way...

Vaccines aside...we could see a very large - highly inconvenient for the important things (park hoping, fastpasses, parades, dessert parties) - spike in case in the extra couple of months with variants.

The incoming government knows...which is why they are quietly pleading to just rip the bandaid off on the vaccines - just get it done for chrissakes...which means the obstructors
Are lining up again...

We’re gonna hear a lot of the “tired” stuff...

Hospitalizations...hospital capacity...school closings...bad economy numbers.

A rare moment for you. You actually hit the nail on the head!

 

[Touchdown]

The theoretical variant spike might not look like any other spike. By late March, nearly all (except people who refused) Heathcare, nursing home, and first responders will be vaccinated along with a sizable portion of >65 crowd. Hospitalizations and deaths might not spike as high as other peaks, because it will be concentrated in younger adults.

 

[hopemax]

Where I live we have a variant similar to the UK one, but they believe it is native to our state and not brought over by international travel. Our numbers started jumping exponentially before the holidays. Did it cause the spike or did it not? So far they can only speculate. The UK variant is not the only mutation out there. We hit our 3rd wave here. Dropping off decently locally this past week. I get your comments, but you cannot ignore that the virus is mutating similarly on its own, which is not unsurprising either. When we reach herd immunity no one knows, but they can guess.

If your takeaway is that I am ignoring mutations and variants, I don’t know what to say.

This line of discussion started because I objected to the idea that because this last wave peaked and we have a vaccine that the future is only positive. I felt some were not giving the mutations and variants enough credit for how much they could still muck up the rest of winter and early spring. Before everyone has a chance to get vaccinated.

So I guess I’m going to getting it from both sides. I give up.