There’s no reason to believe the UK variant has not been in the US for a while now. We don’t know one way or the other how much of the increase in cases during the recent wave has been due to a more contagious variant. Some testing in CA seems to point to that being a potential driver. As @dreday3 said the vaccine seems to be highly effective vs the UK variant so assuming the vaccination rollout is successful it’s not an issue.
Yes. I forgot about that.
All were early estimates or predictions, and it showed exactly how science works. Get your best predictions out there with the data and models that you have... change it as more data and information is made available. Science really does work.. as long as people don’t take what scientists or experts might say in the infancy of a new global pandemic.. and regurgitate it 6-8 months later with the..” but he or she said” stuff. Science changes hourly and we need to listen everyday.
The estimates you’re referring to were imagining a scenario in which no measures were taken to combat the virus. We are actually well above the lower end of that estimate:
nymag.com
The FDA set the threshold for vaccine efficacy at 50% or greater for the trials. They set the thresholds lower than they were hoping for because 50% is still better than zero but you have to have a minimum level set. I don’t consider that a prediction that the vaccines would only be 50% effective, just a minimum threshold. After the animal trials for Oxford there was quite a bit of optimism that the vaccines would be well over the 50% threshold. I’m not sure anyone predicted we would have multiple vaccines that are 95% effective but that’s a good problem to have.
The key in those early models was what the cases and deaths would be with no mitigation efforts. No way of knowing if the higher ends would have been accurate, thankfully so. I do remember looking at the popular model from back in April that showed Covid cases and deaths going to near zero by August 2020. I had a slim hope I could still get my WDW trip in that August if the models were correct. We all know how that turned out.The estimates you’re referring to were imagining a scenario in which no measures were taken to combat the virus. We are actually well above the lower end of that estimate:
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country. A top CDC disease modeler presented the estimates to CDC officials and epidemic experts during a conference call last month, the New York Times revealed on Friday. The scenario did not factor in the efforts now underway to address the epidemic, but rather what could happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of of the disease.
CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead
Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.
What’s most striking to me is that we’re already at twice the lower estimate of deaths even with mitigation efforts. Yet somehow people are treating this as a fail for the experts and a win for the rest of us.
I think that's the point, though. People are predicting all kinds of things regarding COVID precautions, what will happen when, etc. We just don't know at this point because we are still learning and the science changes with new information. People also need to read more carefully; for example, the scientists are saying they don't know yet to what extent the vaccines will protect against transmission as well as infection. Yet I've seen articles misrepresenting that to say they believe the vaccines don't protect against transmission.
That hasn't really changed since they verified.... everything else was what they hoped for.
Two new variants were found in my home state. One extremely similar to the UK version but they know it was here a while so similar but different. These variants are everywhere (so to speak) could likely be causing the spike here that is slowly dropping. Mix in fatigue and people still being dummies and you have easier spread. All those who claim they do everything right often have wrongs they do. We are human. Vaccines will help too!
Not sure we have a connection yet. I had Pfizer and outside of being tired since my sore arm woke me, I never felt "ill" most was felt slightly warm but my temp was barely 1 degree above normal. Same temp I get when anxious. So not even worth mentioning. I think you'll find in the population, some will feel nothing at all and some will drugs or not. Connecting with people in the trial and with friends who have had them i haven't heard of a real connection yet. You just might have been a more severe for no real good reason when most really aren't as bad off as you were.
They hoped for 65%? Because that’s what several sources were predicting
I think that’s why we should tune out the opinions on news cast..the FB chatter.. the Twitter feeds.. go with the big guns that know a bit more then all of us. If Fauci or a few others speak, I’m listening. All the rest.. they can believe or think what they want. I know I will get honest opinions or real facts from them.
Just give me my Fauci ouchie and I'm good
Guess I'm not seeing that here with that. I'm definitely now a middle of the road type. Like I don't think spring will be back to more normal but it will be later this year. With vaccine predictions they were being cautious which I do appreciate
That sounds like March's "everybody had coronavirus in January." How did that turn out? You're relying on one heck of a big "if." The math on "more transmissibility" is not to be taken lightly, and making experts and leaders very nervous. There is a lot of damage the virus can do before May 1st. We should be mindful, when they are not confident we can outrun the virus by getting shots in arms before it does its thing. I don't agree with this idea that "Of course, the vaccines will beat viral spread." Sometimes the cavalry doesn't show up in time, even if they are on the way. And this country is SO resistant to any precaution, including taking the "Fauci Ouchie**."
Oh, rats. I didn't finish my post in time to be first!
I don’t get your point. I‘m not relying on anything, the cases are what they are whether it’s due to a new variant or not. If the UK variant is already here (which has been proven in multiple states now) then it almost certainly is responsible for some of the current surge in cases since it’s proven to spread more than the previous versions of the virus. You are also relying on a big “if” saying if the UK variant isn’t here yet that cases will get much worse. That’s possible, but just as big an ”if” as what I said.
