Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

Where I live we have a variant similar to the UK one, but they believe it is native to our state and not brought over by international travel. Our numbers started jumping exponentially before the holidays. Did it cause the spike or did it not? So far they can only speculate. The UK variant is not the only mutation out there. We hit our 3rd wave here. Dropping off decently locally this past week. I get your comments, but you cannot ignore that the virus is mutating similarly on its own, which is not unsurprising either. When we reach herd immunity no one knows, but they can guess.

If your takeaway is that I am ignoring mutations and variants, I don’t know what to say.

This line of discussion started because I objected to the idea that because this last wave peaked and we have a vaccine that the future is only positive. I felt some were not giving the mutations and variants enough credit for how much they could still muck up the rest of winter and early spring. Before everyone has a chance to get vaccinated.

So I guess I’m going to getting it from both sides. I give up.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

The theoretical variant spike might not look like any other spike. By late March, nearly all (except people who refused) Heathcare, nursing home, and first responders will be vaccinated along with a sizable portion of >65 crowd. Hospitalizations and deaths might not spike as high as other peaks, because it will be concentrated in younger adults.

We would hope by end of March that would be the case. We all want it. We need a few more vaccines I think if we can’t get productivity up by a lot. Here’s just a article I got this morning on Pennsylvania. We need to do better and hope we will.

PA Vaccine Updates: At Current Rate, Next Phase 'A Year Away'

Local officials say that they do not have nearly enough vaccine to move on to the next phase, after Pennsylvania expanded the 1A category.

patch.com

 

[correcaminos]

If your takeaway is that I am ignoring mutations and variants, I don’t know what to say.

This line of discussion started because I objected to the idea that because this last wave peaked and we have a vaccine that the future is only positive. I felt some were not giving the mutations and variants enough credit for how much they could still muck up the rest of winter and early spring. Before everyone has a chance to get vaccinated.

So I guess I’m going to getting it from both sides. I give up.

Okay honestly my tone was not meant to be the way you took it. So no, that wasn't my take away at all. And I truly apologize if my wording made you feel it was.

I am actually one who thinks the spring will see some positive changes but we have not vaccinated enough to make a difference yet.

My point was there are a lot of factors that are hard to quantify. Not all of us talking variants just look to a few that made global news. I hardly think the Cbus made a wave though it could be making a difference here. I was really just adding, not refuting. Not all disussions I do are debates. In fact I prefer discussing more. Especially since here of late people really get their panties in a twist super fast because you point stuff out. I might correct wrong facts but not everything I say is about that line of thought. I truly was trying to explain that those talking variants are not always trying to be just positive and it came out wrong. Lots can muck things up for sure.

Really it's all just complicated was my point.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A rare moment for you. You actually hit the nail on the head!

Awwww, thanks MAGer

 

[Lilofan]

I interpret this the same way...

Vaccines aside...we could see a very large - highly inconvenient for the important things (park hoping, fastpasses, parades, dessert parties) - spike in case in the extra couple of months with variants.

The incoming government knows...which is why they are quietly pleading to just rip the bandaid off on the vaccines - just get it done for chrissakes...which means the obstructors
Are lining up again...

We’re gonna hear a lot of the “tired” stuff...

Hospitalizations...hospital capacity...school closings...bad economy numbers.

I'm going with the mindset of thinking I haven't gotten the vaccine and continue to social distance , avoid crowds, indoor dining and always wear my mask even though I got the first Moderna shot and the second one will be In mid Feb. Never let your guard down because of variants.

 

[Touchdown]

I'm going with the mindset of thinking I haven't gotten the vaccine and continue to social distance , avoid crowds, indoor dining and always wear my mask even though I got the first Moderna shot and the second one will be In mid Feb. Never let your guard down because of variants.

You shouldn’t, you’re not protected until 14 days after your second shot. After that though, I think you’re ok to let some of your guard down.

 

[dreday3]

You shouldn’t, you’re not protected until 14 days after your second shot. After that though, I think you’re ok to let some of guard down.

This.

Even after I'm fully vaccinated next week I will still wear masks and all because they are still required, not because I'm worried about myself getting Covid. Otherwise I would have no qualms about going maskless 14 days after my second shot.

 

[Lilofan]

This.

Even after I'm fully vaccinated next week I will still wear masks and all because they are still required, not because I'm worried about myself getting Covid. Otherwise I would have no qualms about going maskless 14 days after my second shot.

I admire your optimism but I just don't share the same belief.

 

[sullyinMT]

I looked that up in my mixology book...

It’s called the “Disgraced Con Man”
And you can do it frozen too

It’s most effective in the sunshine.

 

[dreday3]

I admire your optimism but I just don't share the same belief.

What belief? That the vaccine works?

If you dont think it works, why would you get vaccinated?

 

[GimpYancIent]

This.

Even after I'm fully vaccinated next week I will still wear masks and all because they are still required, not because I'm worried about myself getting Covid. Otherwise I would have no qualms about going maskless 14 days after my second shot.

The vaccines stimulates your bodies immune system to be able to combat COVID19, it does not prevent the illness from attacking. A person can catch COVID19 post immunization and the immune system will be able to fight it off. Hence, all the protocols need to remain in place as additional tools to continue to combat the spread in addition to vaccination.

 

[Touchdown]

There is a middle ground, I’m going to do things to prevent my risk of infection like wear a mask and continue my borderline ridiculous hand washing/sanitizing technique and social distancing. That said, my tolerance of going into places of increased risk will jump considerably.

 

[dreday3]

The vaccines stimulates your bodies immune system to be able to combat COVID19, it does not prevent the illness from attacking. A person can catch COVID19 post immunization and the immune system will be able to fight it off. Hence, all the protocols need to remain in place as additional tools to continue to combat the spread in addition to vaccination.

And?

I already stated I will continue wearing masks, following guidelines as obviously not enough people have been vaccinated yet.

But if that wasn't needed, if most were vaccinated, numbers drop, requirements dropped, etc. - why would I continue to wear masks after vaccination? I have every confidence based on the trials, the science, that the vaccine will do what is intended. I did not say I wouldn't get Covid (although it hasn't been disproven (disproved?) that the vaccine does indeed prevent person from even getting infected), I said I'm not worried about getting it.

I mean, what is the point of any of us getting vaccinated if the end-game isn't to be able to go back to a normal life?

 

[Disstevefan1]

The estimates you’re referring to were imagining a scenario in which no measures were taken to combat the virus. We are actually well above the lower end of that estimate:

​

A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country. A top CDC disease modeler presented the estimates to CDC officials and epidemic experts during a conference call last month, the New York Times revealed on Friday. The scenario did not factor in the efforts now underway to address the epidemic, but rather what could happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of of the disease.​

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Newly revealed projections warn of a massive potential toll in the U.S., but the worst-case estimate doesn’t factor in recent efforts to respond.

nymag.com

200k to 1.7 million in the US, I am glad the experts narrowed it down.. Let’s hope they are wrong about the top end..

 

[Lilofan]

What belief? That the vaccine works?

If you dont think it works, why would you get vaccinated?

To be bold and go mask less after the second shot ? If you want to be first, feel free

 

[LittleBuford]

I am glad the experts narrowed it down.

The estimate is from March of last year. It hasn’t been narrowed down.

 

[dreday3]

To be bold and go mask less after the second shot ? If you want to be first, feel free

I said twice now that I wasn't. But I would if I could.

 

[Lilofan]

The vaccines stimulates your bodies immune system to be able to combat COVID19, it does not prevent the illness from attacking. A person can catch COVID19 post immunization and the immune system will be able to fight it off. Hence, all the protocols need to remain in place as additional tools to continue to combat the spread in addition to vaccination.

"The immune system will be able to fight it off ". I'm curious to see and hear the symptoms vaccinated people deal with if they get covid.

 

[hopemax]

What belief? That the vaccine works?

If you dont think it works, why would you get vaccinated?

Vaccine isn't 100% efficacy. We want to have 100 million people vaccinated by May 1st. At 90% efficacy, that means 10 million of those people are still at risk. Some people with comorbidities won't want to risk being one of those unlucky millions for whom the vaccine fails. Some may want to wait until virus circulation has actually dropped to run naked, instead of just assuming they aren't Prim Everdeen and only have a single ticket in the Hunger Games lottery, the moment after their 14 days post shot has passed.

 

[dreday3]

Vaccine isn't 100% efficacy. We want to have 100 million people vaccinated by May 1st. At 90% efficacy, that means 10 million of those people are still at risk. Some people with comorbidities won't want to risk being one of those unlucky millions for whom the vaccine fails. Some may want to wait until virus circulation has actually dropped to run naked, instead of just assuming they aren't Prim Everdeen and only have a single ticket in the Hunger Games lottery, the moment after their 14 days post shot has passed.

What are you being so insulting about? No need to be so rude. Try reading the rest of my posts before you feel the need to lecture and scold. Did I say I was going without the mask? Nope, because we can't yet. But if we could (and I gave parameters of how in other post), I would.
In fact this is exactly what I posted
"I already stated I will continue wearing masks, following guidelines as obviously not enough people have been vaccinated yet.
But if that wasn't needed, if most were vaccinated, numbers drop, requirements dropped, etc. - why would I continue to wear masks after vaccination?"

Sorry you are upset because I believe the vaccine will work?