Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

and that hospitalization has declined overall in the past week in AZ or at worst stay flat

Flat isn’t the goal at least not four months later...and you missed the part where it climbed a lot just prior before...long after the “we ain’t bailing you out” rich states got their hands dirty and fought through the spring.

The heroes were at the front of the column and did the trial and error. Most will forget...but not all.

 

[legwand77]

Flat isn’t the goal at least not four months later...and you missed the part where it climbed a lot just prior before...long after the “we ain’t bailing you out” rich states got their hands dirty and fought through the spring.

The heroes were at the front of the column and did the trial and error. Most will forget...but not all.

Flat is what the hospitalization number is supposed to be and that is where the current numbers lie (are at)

 

[legwand77]

I feel like this has been said at least once per page for the past few days of this thread, but: source?

CDC gives plenty of information on deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm). The age groups don't nicely end at 30, but a pretty close number to 1 significant figure would be a flu mortality rate of 1 per 100,000 with age <30. With the demographics of the US, that would be 1000 flue deaths (again, 1 significant figure). Covid deaths of ages <34 are ~900.

The source was what he posted, but I will give you another, yes it <24 but that is due to the reason you stated, point still stands. This estimate was from back in May and still tracking the same.

Estimating the Risk of Death from COVID-19 vs. Influenza by Age

Younger Americans appear have a significantly lower chance of dying from COVID-19 than they do of more common infectious diseases.

freopp.org

It is looking like the number of deaths overall for 2020 including Covid deaths, will probably be very similar to previous years.

 

[Kevin_W]

The source was what he posted, but I will give you another, yes it <24 but that is due to the reason you stated, point still stands. This estimate was from back in May and if anything looks better now.

Estimating the Risk of Death from COVID-19 vs. Influenza by Age

Younger Americans appear have a significantly lower chance of dying from COVID-19 than they do of more common infectious diseases.

freopp.org

An interesting graph. The author of the article links back to the same source of CDC data, but then jumps to his conclusion without showing any calculation. He assumes 150,000 total Covid deaths, which would lead to ~1500 deaths for <30 age rage. I don't see how you can compare that to the #'s for flu deaths (~1/100,000) and get the data he puts in the bar charts.

The infant data makes sense, since flu is relatively deadly for infants and Covid is not, but the 1-24-year-old data doesn't look right.

 

[Disstevefan1]

An interesting graph. The author of the article links back to the same source of CDC data, but then jumps to his conclusion without showing any calculation. He assumes 150,000 total Covid deaths, which would lead to ~1500 deaths for <30 age rage. I don't see how you can compare that to the #'s for flu deaths (~1/100,000) and get the data he puts in the bar charts.

The infant data makes sense, since flu is relatively deadly for infants and Covid is not, but the 1-24-year-old data doesn't look right.

whats the current death count for folks under 30 attributed to COVID?

 

[danlb_2000]

I am wondering what the next topic of panic headlines from the media will be once the focus on the new cases fades. Rest assured if history shows there will be a next topic.

Again we always should watch hospitalizations and make sure they stay steady.

A plague amid a pandemic: East Africa, West Asia combat surging locust outbreak

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates 450 billion pests have been killed since January, but the battle against the massive, crop-destroying swarms is far from over.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Angelo721]

whats the current death count for folks under 30 attributed to COVID?

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

chart in the middle of the page

 

[DisneyCane]

whats the current death count for folks under 30 attributed to COVID?

I don't know about nationwide. In Florida there have been 21 fatalities under age 35 out of 34,983 documented cases.

 

[Angelo721]

There is also something that is not discussed. Mental Health from the shutdown.

Covid-19 is deadly, and so is keeping millions of people out of work

Anyone who tries to oversimplify reopening the economy simply doesn't understand what's really at stake.

qz.com

We all want to prevent deaths from the physical effect of Covid, but keeping things shutdown causes an increase in suicide, abuse (kids and spouses) drug and alcohol abuse. Opening the economy is not about "Riding Space Mountain" it is getting back to normal so we can all feed our families, send kids back to school, etc.

 

[Horizons '83]

whats the current death count for folks under 30 attributed to COVID?

Its around 900 deaths across the nation for 30 and younger making the death rate around 1% (.09%). This is based off the CDC numbers.

 

[MisterPenguin]

There is also something that is not discussed. Mental Health from the shutdown.

Covid-19 is deadly, and so is keeping millions of people out of work

Anyone who tries to oversimplify reopening the economy simply doesn't understand what's really at stake.

qz.com

We all want to prevent deaths from the physical effect of Covid, but keeping things shutdown causes an increase in suicide, abuse (kids and spouses) drug and alcohol abuse. Opening the economy is not about "Riding Space Mountain" it is getting back to normal so we can all feed our families, send kids back to school, etc.

Really, your source is someone who says:

Let me preface this article by saying I’m not a doctor, nor an expert on infectious diseases—I’m a writer and a small business owner—so I cannot scientifically speak to when or how governors should begin safely reopening the US economy. ​

??

Anyway, yes. Mental health has been brought up. By the OPEN NOW folks. Without any hard data, just like you did.

If we're just going to guess at this, then let's guess what would happen if we just kept everything open and we had several million deaths and bodies were stacked in the street.

Do you think that might have an affect on mental health?

 

[MisterPenguin]

I don’t know why you want to dismiss this so casually. It is a legit concern, even for folks like myself that have supported the mitigation efforts. We know it’s an issue looking at past recessions and we know calls to suicide prevention hotlines have been surging. Even if some take this type of information and go to an extreme with their rhetoric, it shouldn’t be dismissed as a concern coming from the “crazies” or however else you or others want to categorize it.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't be concerned on the mental health impact of COVID and our societal response to it.

I'm saying that arguments that mental health problems and possible suicides attributed aren't reasons to OPEN NOW and not wear masks. Because:

1. Where's the data of suicides that can be attributed to the COVID response?​

​

2. Do you really think that that number of suicides is going to be significant enough to warrant a change in behavior (open now, no masks) such that opening up completely without masks isn't going to be the cause of even more deaths?​

​

3. The alternative to the restrictive policies that were put in place to contain COVID is not to have had those restrictions at all. Which would have meant many, many more deaths and many cities' ICUs and morgues being overwhelmed. And that would also cause a mental health problem of continuous grief and anxiety, leading to just as many if not more suicides.​

But, of course, that's conjecture on my part. Just like the conjecture on the part of those who say the suicide rate has gotten so bad that the only solution is to open now. And stop wearing masks.

 

[Andrew C]

I'm not saying that we shouldn't be concerned on the mental health impact of COVID and our societal response to it.

I'm saying that arguments that mental health problems and possible suicides attributed aren't reasons to OPEN NOW and not wear masks. Because:

1. Where's the data of suicides that can be attributed to the COVID response?​

​

2. Do you really think that that number of suicides is going to be significant enough to warrant a change in behavior (open now, no masks) such that opening up completely without masks isn't going to be the cause of even more deaths?​

​

3. The alternative to the restrictive policies that were put in place to contain COVID is not to have had those restrictions at all. Which would have meant many, many more deaths and many cities' ICUs and morgues being overwhelmed. And that would also cause a mental health problem of continuous grief and anxiety, leading to just as many if not more suicides.​

But, of course, that's conjecture on my part. Just like the conjecture on the part of those who say the suicide rate has gotten so bad that the only solution is to open now. And stop wearing masks.

fair enough.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I'm not saying that we shouldn't be concerned on the mental health impact of COVID and our societal response to it.

I'm saying that arguments that mental health problems and possible suicides attributed aren't reasons to OPEN NOW and not wear masks. Because:

1. Where's the data of suicides that can be attributed to the COVID response?​

​

2. Do you really think that that number of suicides is going to be significant enough to warrant a change in behavior (open now, no masks) such that opening up completely without masks isn't going to be the cause of even more deaths?​

​

3. The alternative to the restrictive policies that were put in place to contain COVID is not to have had those restrictions at all. Which would have meant many, many more deaths and many cities' ICUs and morgues being overwhelmed. And that would also cause a mental health problem of continuous grief and anxiety, leading to just as many if not more suicides.​

But, of course, that's conjecture on my part. Just like the conjecture on the part of those who say the suicide rate has gotten so bad that the only solution is to open now. And stop wearing masks.

I am a major proponent of the importance of mental health, and while I recognize that YES, mental health is suffering during the pandemic, one of the biggest issues I have with the reopen because of mental health claim is that the people crying out MENTAL HEALTH!MENTAL HEALTH! are the same people who want to defund mental health aide.

 

[legwand77]

Looking at the data maps the percentage positive for yesterday is still quite high at 16% with a 12% rolling average

Where are you getting those numbers?

 

[legwand77]

Okay this is extremely embarrassing. What the heck does he think ICU means!?!?!?!

I found this humorous at first because of the guy who wrote the tweet (the grim reaper), but this is an shining example of what is wrong with the panic news, knee jerk reactions and then amplication of incorrect info. It is then spread across the social media landscape. Desantis, politics aside, did the right thing here in respect to proper planning strategies and getting correct data.

 

[Flugell]

There is also something that is not discussed. Mental Health from the shutdown.

Covid-19 is deadly, and so is keeping millions of people out of work

Anyone who tries to oversimplify reopening the economy simply doesn't understand what's really at stake.

qz.com

We all want to prevent deaths from the physical effect of Covid, but keeping things shutdown causes an increase in suicide, abuse (kids and spouses) drug and alcohol abuse. Opening the economy is not about "Riding Space Mountain" it is getting back to normal so we can all feed our families, send kids back to school, etc.

I feel sure you meant to say as well as keeping the elderly and vulnerable safe. Being alive must surely be the priority.

 

[Horizons '83]

Its not picking a side if you don't talk politics at all. That is the very reason it isn't permitted in this thread. That is the last I'll speak about, it just something I wish you consider. That's all.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I found this humorous at first because of the guy who wrote the tweet (the grim reaper), but this is an shining example of what is wrong with the panic news, knee jerk reactions and then amplication of incorrect info. It is then spread across the social media landscape. Desantis, politics aside, did the right thing here in respect to proper planning strategies and getting correct data.

Again I disagree with most of what you said. They are opinions so I’m entitled to disagree, not many factual statements again in your post.
Is “panic news” the new catchphrase or talking point? I e seen a lot of that word lately as the scare and fear ones take a back seat. It’s being reported and whether you believe it or not it’s exactly what he’s doing. Here’s a Florida link to who he talked with and how they are changing the reporting.

Florida changes ICU reporting

The change could reduce the number of occupied ICU beds being reported to the state.

floridapolitics.com

If you can tell me the incorrect info as you said, I will apologize because I can’t seem to find it.

 

[Mattyp353]

How do y'all do this... every. single. day.