Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

CDC just lowered the death rate again to .2%. Also said they screwed up their numbers and are adjusting accordingly.

Wow.

The death rate was also a moving target because we didn't know how asymptomatic it was and those who were asymptomatic were constantly undercounted.

But, also undercounted, is the number of deaths. There is a "death gap" between the the number of deaths attributed to COVID and all the statistically extra deaths... which are most likely also COVID related deaths.

Until there is a widespread randomized testing of large populations, the number will always be changing until we hone in on it.

When all the asymptomatic cases weren't being counted... because, who knew just how asymptomatic it was at the time... then, the best data we had was a very high mortality rate. Which justified the things we did.

However, even with the mortality known to be lower, we do have a lower limit on how low it can go just by counting the dead bodies, over hundred thousand in three months. And with a population that has no vaccine or prior immunities, it has a big punch. There were indeed cities whose health systems were overwhelmed and they were stacking bodies in the streets (still happening in some places in the world).

Anyhoo... source...

Fact check: CDC's estimates COVID-19 death rate around 0.26%, doesn't confirm it

Current CDC estimates put the "best estimate" for COVID-19 at 0.26%. The claim that CDC confirmed the coronavirus death rate is partly false.

www.usatoday.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

Oopsie...

 

[robhedin]

It really is funny how the talking points have changed and not changed at the same time. I can remember the same argument not to long ago with “ only 50,000 cases and a few thousand dead”. Just adjust the numbers and keep the same argument.
I do agree with one point you make.. people can’t see this with their own eyes which IMO makes it to them no big deal.
I’m glad the hospital ships and emergency hospitals being built went empty. That means social distancing helped and came a little late but it worked and is working.

I'm not sure to what "talking point" you're referring... I was talking about someone trying to compare WW2 to CV as it relates to having people think that sacrifices are warranted, not that CV hasn't been (and still isn't serious). I didn't bring up WW2 to begin with, but if someone does and says this is as bad, they need a history lesson.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It really is funny how the talking points have changed and not changed at the same time. I can remember the same argument not to long ago with “ only 50,000 cases and a few thousand dead”. Just adjust the numbers and keep the same argument.
I do agree with one point you make.. people can’t see this with their own eyes which IMO makes it to them no big deal.
I’m glad the hospital ships and emergency hospitals being built went empty. That means social distancing helped and came a little late but it worked and is working.

I think those that CONTINUE to type hoax references...despite the goal posts moving against them since day one...should be charged with “finger abuse”

And isn’t it time to make a flu or car accident comparison??

A reference to Roswell Aliens?

Oopsie...

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I see they beat their own record....”can do” attitude!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not sure to what "talking point" you're referring... I was talking about someone trying to compare WW2 to CV as it relates to having people think that sacrifices are warranted, not that CV hasn't been (and still isn't serious). I didn't bring up WW2 to begin with, but if someone does and says this is as bad, they need a history lesson.

If you continue to hint or say that this was all a big overreaction...you’re gonna hear it.

And I’m not say “you” specifically...just anyone that does do that. I don’t really think you are.

This has happened...and there really wasn’t such a thing as an “overreaction” when you don’t have a playbook. That was always a thing upfront. Flatten the curve...not overwhelm the healthcare...change how we live. That wasn’t a secret...any of it.

My opinion (just that) is it’s disrespectful to those that had to deal with this...the worry, the pain, fatigue and loss...to continue to make a warped “case” that something resembling a “better plan” was available. It’s insulting to everyone.

 

[Jrb1979]

What more do people want? People were complaining that the economy was shutdown for too long. Now most places are starting to reopen things and it feels like most think it's not fast enough. Its a shame to see so many keep downplaying this and that we should just forget social distancing.

 

[robhedin]

This has happened...and there really wasn’t such a thing as an “overreaction” when you don’t have a playbook. That was always a thing upfront. Flatten the curve...not overwhelm the healthcare...change how we live. That wasn’t a secret...any of it.

My opinion (just that) is it’s disrespectful to those that had to deal with this...the worry, the pain, fatigue and loss...to continue to make a warped “case” that something resembling a “better plan” was available. It’s insulting to everyone.

I didn't say this has been an overreaction. I don't know if it has or not, and I honestly don't think we'll ever know. It is what it is.

You're correct: everything was about flattening the curve and not overloading our healthcare system. Luckily that seems to have worked. One point, though- there was a playbook for a pandemic like this, for some stupid reason that I cannot fathom, we just chose to ignore it. See: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819703/WH-Pandemic-Playbook.pdf

For the record, I've had to deal with this as well. I had CV myself and was down for about a 5 weeks; felt like no matter what I did I couldn't get enough breath. Luckily, like most people that contract it, I didn't have to be hospitalized and recovered on my own, although I still have a slight cough that doesn't seem to want to go away. I have two nieces that are RNs that have both been working in hospitals dealing with CV cases throughout this ordeal. Luckily, while they've struggles with having enough PPE, they haven't had anything serious happen to them. My wife's father is in a nursing home, and his condition is deteriorating- while he doesn't have CV, he doesn't understand why no one will come visit him and he's falling more and more into deep depression thinking that he's been left to die alone. I get to watch my wife cry over that, too. I've got two friends who have lost their businesses and their life savings because of this. Other friends have lost their jobs, one of which is worried about how she's going to pay for her daughters medication at the end of the month. So please don't presume that I'm taking anything lightly. That, too, is insulting.

At the end of the day, you can have your opinion and I can have mine. They may even be the same opinion -- I look at the data to make informed decisions for myself, for example. The thing is, no matter what you or I think, others out there will have their own opinions and act according to their own desires and risk assessments. That's what we're seeing right now.

 

[robhedin]

What more do people want? People were complaining that the economy was shutdown for too long. Now most places are starting to reopen things and it feels like most think it's not fast enough. Its a shame to see so many keep downplaying this and that we should just forget social distancing.

That's what I was alluding to earlier-- that what looks like a fairly large subset of people don't see things as significant enough *to them* to keep safety measures in place. Probably because they don't see any direct significant impact from the virus to them. To me that's a failure in leadership and how things have been communicated.

At this point though, I'm not sure there's much to be done. People are out and about; we see them performing inadequate social distancing and gathering in large groups; we see people not wearing masks; We see lip service being paid to enforcing the "rules".

I worry there's a boolean solution set here- is if there is NOT a major increase in the near future- not in cases, but in what the people out there doing what they're doing see as the overall seriousness of things-- i.e hospitals being slammed, funeral homes being slammed, family members falling ill, etc. -- then I strongly suspect that behavior is just going to accelerate.

On the other hand, if there IS a major increase, I'm not sure it's going to be possible to roll things back without making things much, much worse overall.

 

[WDWTrojan]

CDC just lowered the death rate again to .2%. Fausi announced again that masks won't prevent spread. Also said they screwed up their numbers and are adjusting accordingly.

Wow.

Not true. Please fact check.

Fact check: CDC's estimates COVID-19 death rate around 0.26%, doesn't confirm it

Current CDC estimates put the "best estimate" for COVID-19 at 0.26%. The claim that CDC confirmed the coronavirus death rate is partly false.

www.usatoday.com

Others already did on the mask thing, too.

 

[marni1971]

What???
Why does it matter?
Have you seen what has happened to people's livelihoods?
It's also highly likely that the violence of the past couple weeks erupted in part because younger people have had no outlet for 2 and half months.
Two and a half months of virtual solitary confinement.
No school.
No sports.
No friends to visit.
No other family members to visit.
No movies.
No bars.
No restaurants.
No holidays as in Easter.
No museums.
No parks.
No beaches.
Nothing except staying home and watching social media, tv, and the internet.

Younger people need to grow a pair then.

 

[RFM57]

Not really. He said they're effective only if you're in constant close contact, but adhering to social distancing works best. I work in government and recieved new guidance today that masks are not recommended as per CDO guidelines. I'm also my workplace return to work point of contact for all relevant guidance and procedures, so i have to dig into the continuous changing guidelines weekly, which is just ridiculous. Lastly, my whole family contracted covid early Feb, I know how it feels and an not discounting the virus, just the response.

I would REALLY like to see what CDC guideline you are referring to, because it is not at all what they currently have posted about CLOTH masks. I am a clinician and also have to keep up on this data. I really wonder if you have confused other info or misread recomendations.

CDC is still posting the recommendation to wear cloth masaks whenever out in public. Remember that the cloth mask helps protect others, not the wearer, so the proximity to an infected person is not the issue for the wearer. However, the opinion of the WHO differs from the CDC recommendations on cloth masks. And the CDC has very different recommendations about cloth masks vs surgical and N95 masks, which are supposed to protect the wearer.

Please go back and reread your info. And, post your source for us, please.

 

[lilypgirl]

This makes absolutely no sense to me ? Can someone of you science guys/gals please help to explain to me how one is ok but not the other in terms of science and spread?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

This makes absolutely no sense to me ? Can someone of you science guys/gals please help to explain to me how one is ok but not the other in terms of science and spread?

That makes no sense. Who said it? Where was this posted? Not enough info. Could have been a random person who thinks they are in the know being quoted. I’m thinking it’s not a “ health expert”.

 

[lilypgirl]

That makes no sense. Who said it? Where was this posted? Not enough info. Could have been a random person who thinks they are in the know being quoted. I’m thinking it’s not a “ health expert”.

There are several articles on this subject. I guess it’s 50/50 on where “health experts” stand .

 

[DisneyDebRob]

There are several articles on this subject. I guess it’s 50/50 on where “health experts” stand .

Not 50/50 at all my friend. Not even close.

 

[Rider]

Oopsie...

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Meanwhile in other states that are ignoring growing trends:

AZ's Largest Hospital System Nearing ICU Bed Capacity

The chief clinical officer at the state's largest hospital network said Friday that Arizona is headed to a health crisis if residents don't change their habits to deal with COVID-19. Dr. Marjorie Bessel said the intensive-care units at the Maricopa County hospitals for Banner Health already are...

kjzz.org

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I didn't say this has been an overreaction. I don't know if it has or not, and I honestly don't think we'll ever know. It is what it is. That said, people who compare this to the deliberate murder of the jews and the killing of entire cities is going to get called out. I've watched my uncles who lied to be able to go fight literally come to tears when they were asked about what they saw during their service. Human on Human atrocities are MUCH worse than impartial viruses.

You're correct: everything was about flattening the curve and not overloading our healthcare system. Luckily that seems to have worked. One point, though- there was a playbook for a pandemic like this, for some stupid reason that I cannot fathom, we just chose to ignore it. See: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819703/WH-Pandemic-Playbook.pdf

For the record, I've had to deal with this as well. I had CV myself and was down for about a 5 weeks; felt like no matter what I did I couldn't get enough breath. Luckily, like most people that contract it, I didn't have to be hospitalized and recovered on my own, although I still have a slight cough that doesn't seem to want to go away. I have two nieces that are RNs that have both been working in hospitals dealing with CV cases throughout this ordeal. Luckily, while they've struggles with having enough PPE, they haven't had anything serious happen to them. My wife's father is in a nursing home, and his condition is deteriorating- while he doesn't have CV, he doesn't understand why no one will come visit him and he's falling more and more into deep depression thinking that he's been left to die alone. I get to watch my wife cry over that, too. I've got two friends who have lost their businesses and their life savings because of this. Other friends have lost their jobs, one of which is worried about how she's going to pay for her daughters medication at the end of the month. So please don't presume that I'm taking anything lightly. That, too, is insulting.

At the end of the day, you can have your opinion and I can have mine. They may even be the same opinion -- I look at the data to make informed decisions for myself, for example. The thing is, no matter what you or I think, others out there will have their own opinions and act according to their own desires and risk assessments. That's what we're seeing right now.

Well that’s a completely different issue...and that leads us back to polticsz...aka “money”

And I’m not wading in those weeds this time

 

[lilypgirl]

Not 50/50 at all my friend. Not even close.

Curious as to what your thoughts on it?

 

[marni1971]

This makes absolutely no sense to me ? Can someone of you science guys/gals please help to explain to me how one is ok but not the other in terms of science and spread?

I think you need to ignore the word “expert”. Maybe replace with “generic twitter idiot”

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Curious as to what your thoughts on it?

Here’s a good article on why most agree it works. There are many reports out there, almost all will say the same thing. It gets into how it’s measured which is the place to start. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/7FEF6AD2-8005-11EA-8EDA-DDE7236377C2

Anyone can find a scientist or expert that may disagree with a subject. Just look at climate change. 97% of scientists agree on it so there’s a few that don’t. When you have that kind of number behind you, that’s who I listen too.