This is a pretty interesting article . I am so intrigued now on how viruses work which I never was until covid.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
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Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Arizona data on hospitalizations:Meanwhile in other states that are ignoring growing trends:
AZ's Largest Hospital System Nearing ICU Bed Capacity
The chief clinical officer at the state's largest hospital network said Friday that Arizona is headed to a health crisis if residents don't change their habits to deal with COVID-19. Dr. Marjorie Bessel said the intensive-care units at the Maricopa County hospitals for Banner Health already are...kjzz.org
I'm not seeing a "huge spike since we've reopened" in the data here. So perhaps they are not ignoring the trend. Confirmed cases are up (possibly with increased testing as has been discussed here ad nauseam) and deaths are relatively flat.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
The chart is of “Hospitalized by Date of Hospitalization” and not total number of those hospitalized on each day. It also doesn’t tell you anything about intensive care patients.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Fair enough - I was making the assumtion that ICU % of hospitilization remained constant. It looks like that's not the case:
They do seem to have been ticking up recently.
Chi84
Premium Member
I hope this is the right place to post this and that it's not getting into forbidden territory. This site ran an article in its news section yesterday reporting that The World Health Organization updated its position to recommend masks for the general public. It contained a link to the actual WHO document, which covers mask-wearing by the general public on pages 6 to 8. The document lists several "potential benefits/advantages" and "potential harms/disadvantages."
The first benefit, as expected, was "reduced potential exposure risk from infected persons before they develop symptoms." No problem with that, but the remaining benefits listed were (and I'm not making this up):
- reduced potential stigmatization of individuals wearing masks to prevent infecting others;
- "making people feel they can play a role in contributing to stopping spread of the virus";
- reminding people to be compliant with other measures, such as hand hygiene and not touching their face; (with a caveat that this can also lead to problems)
- potential social and economic benefits such as a form of income for those making masks, and "a form of cultural expression" encouraging public acceptance of protection measures in general.
The potential harms/disadvantages listed were:
- "potential increased risk of self-contamination due to the manipulation of a face mask and subsequently touching eyes with contaminated hands";
- potential self-contamination from masks that are not changed if they are wet or soiled
- potential headaches or difficulty breathing
- potential skin lesions
- difficulty communicating
- potential discomfort
- "a false sense of security, leading to potentially lower adherence to other critical preventive measures such as physical distancing and hand hygiene"'
- "poor compliance with mask wearing, in particular by young children"
There are three more listed that deal with disposing of used masks and covering people with specific challenges that would make mask-wearing difficult.
My personal position on masks is that - in practice rather than in theory - they are not doing much to stop the spread of the virus. That said, I believe people should comply with whatever rules are set in place by government officials or businesses.
However, it's disconcerting that the WHO considers such factors as making people "feel like" they're doing something or not making other people feel bad for wearing masks as benefits. On the whole, in my opinion, this document is one heck of a half-hearted and poorly supported recommendation for mask-wearing by the general public. The "harms/disadvantages" section pretty much describes how people are actually wearing masks. I was at a hair salon yesterday (finally!) where all employees and customers were wearing masks. In one corner of the room, three women were sitting at a proper social distance from one another. All three had pulled down their masks and were speaking loudly to each other to be heard over the background noise, while others walked between them. So it's not just children who don't wear the masks properly.
I hope this isn't an inappropriate rant, but the news article says nothing more than that the WHO changed its stance. This post is intended to provide a more complete picture of what the organization actually said.
The first benefit, as expected, was "reduced potential exposure risk from infected persons before they develop symptoms." No problem with that, but the remaining benefits listed were (and I'm not making this up):
- reduced potential stigmatization of individuals wearing masks to prevent infecting others;
- "making people feel they can play a role in contributing to stopping spread of the virus";
- reminding people to be compliant with other measures, such as hand hygiene and not touching their face; (with a caveat that this can also lead to problems)
- potential social and economic benefits such as a form of income for those making masks, and "a form of cultural expression" encouraging public acceptance of protection measures in general.
The potential harms/disadvantages listed were:
- "potential increased risk of self-contamination due to the manipulation of a face mask and subsequently touching eyes with contaminated hands";
- potential self-contamination from masks that are not changed if they are wet or soiled
- potential headaches or difficulty breathing
- potential skin lesions
- difficulty communicating
- potential discomfort
- "a false sense of security, leading to potentially lower adherence to other critical preventive measures such as physical distancing and hand hygiene"'
- "poor compliance with mask wearing, in particular by young children"
There are three more listed that deal with disposing of used masks and covering people with specific challenges that would make mask-wearing difficult.
My personal position on masks is that - in practice rather than in theory - they are not doing much to stop the spread of the virus. That said, I believe people should comply with whatever rules are set in place by government officials or businesses.
However, it's disconcerting that the WHO considers such factors as making people "feel like" they're doing something or not making other people feel bad for wearing masks as benefits. On the whole, in my opinion, this document is one heck of a half-hearted and poorly supported recommendation for mask-wearing by the general public. The "harms/disadvantages" section pretty much describes how people are actually wearing masks. I was at a hair salon yesterday (finally!) where all employees and customers were wearing masks. In one corner of the room, three women were sitting at a proper social distance from one another. All three had pulled down their masks and were speaking loudly to each other to be heard over the background noise, while others walked between them. So it's not just children who don't wear the masks properly.
I hope this isn't an inappropriate rant, but the news article says nothing more than that the WHO changed its stance. This post is intended to provide a more complete picture of what the organization actually said.
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Being a site focussed on WDW, I didnt want to get into the specifics of medical advice, but just wanted to give readers who were interested in WDW an indication of how the WHO is now aligning with the CDC, and ultimately why Disney is requiring masks.
The main point was that WHO changed its position. Many people have contacted me until this point telling me that WHO does not recommend masks, so WDW shouldn't.
I linked the document for those (like you) who wanted to read further.
Chi84
Premium Member
I hope no one construes my post as a criticism of this site or the news article - as you correctly pointed out, the main point is that The WHO changed its position. Most people are busy and don't have time to delve into supporting documents, so I provided what I hope is a helpful summary of the factors supporting the recommendation.
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AZ is indeed a trouble spot. Positive rate appears to be INCREASING to 10% despite their attestations of increased testing. Hospitalizations also up.
That's already been mentioned here.
If the virus is mutating in Italy to a less lethal virus for Italy, then that's good news for Italy.
But, how do you ship the less lethal version to the U.S. and make it supplant the more lethal version here? Especially with travel restrictions? You can't. That would take several yearly cycles for the new virus to spread like new strains of the flu.
Also, one doctor's observation is just anecdotal, and not science. It needs vigorous vetting so that it's not another hydroxychloroquine thing.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
I think we can attribute this rise to the frigid late spring for which the deserts of Arizona are so famous.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center reported something similar a few days ago so no need to ship it over.
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/coronavirus-and-walt-disney-world-general-discussion.963478/
Have they started doing elective surgery again? I know that when my father had spinal surgery he was placed in ICU post-op just to keep a closer eye on him. It may be that patients with underlying medical issues having routine surgery are in ICU just in case. So that may be causing the numbers to rise.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
A COVID ICU patient likely is in the ICU for a longer duration than a COVID non-ICU patient stays in the hospital.
The admission ratio of ICU to total may be relatively constant but the lingering of ICU patients makes the ICU census grow.
jaklgreen
Well-Known Member
But we are also getting into the hot season up north. More people going out and mowing their lawns leads to heat related issues as well as heart attacks. Those would bump ICU numbers also. I am not downplaying Covid, but just having a general ICU number without knowing that these are specifically from Covid, does nothing but muddle the covid facts.
Correct me if I am wrong but wouldn’t the virus behave the same no matter what region of the world it is in? Are there environmental factors at play?
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Mutations are random and happen during replication. You’d need mutations with similar results occurring in different places.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
Yes and the chronically ill not coming to the hospital for two months.
Bartattack
Well-Known Member
We have daily numbers of our ICU patients, but these are only confirmed ICU patients with covid-19. The red line is the number of ICU beds reserved exclusively (max capacity) for covid-19 patients. This way we don't have to keep track of other ICU patients witrh other urgent medical problems... these don't influence the numbers. They always have reserve ICU beds in case a non-covid patient needs it.
(we have 11 million people)
black bar = people on ICU with covid-19
Blue bar= number of people that came into ICU with covid-19 on that day.
(we have 11 million people)
black bar = people on ICU with covid-19
Blue bar= number of people that came into ICU with covid-19 on that day.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
If things go the way epidemiologists predict, I'm thinking WDW may not open when they say they will. I say this for a few reasons:
Look at the current spike in the "REOPEN" states.
Memorial Day crowd spikes are starting to materialize and have about 2 weeks left to show us the results.
We will have a spike from the protests which will show up in 2-4 weeks.
But, WDW is not important here, I'm nervous for the health of our country and its hospitals.
Look at the current spike in the "REOPEN" states.
Memorial Day crowd spikes are starting to materialize and have about 2 weeks left to show us the results.
We will have a spike from the protests which will show up in 2-4 weeks.
But, WDW is not important here, I'm nervous for the health of our country and its hospitals.
trainplane3
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile, on the total flip-side here it's the older generation that keep complaining about rules and such. It's no fun how everything was shut down but everyone finds a way. Even if it means screaming about it everywhere they (don't) go.
It's really a mix of multiple generations that want to be the loudest though.
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