Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

The new rules state that people can still cross beaches to access the ocean for outdoor exercise like surfing, solo paddling and swimming as long as social distances are maintained.

 

[surfsupdon]

The new rules state that people can still cross beaches to access the ocean for outdoor exercise like surfing, solo paddling and swimming as long as social distances are maintained.

Fortunately we still have beach access here. Surfing has been all right the past few weeks.

 

[Kevin_W]

But to formulate public policy and make corporate plans that in the long term will affect millions of people ... in the complete absence of confirmed answers to any of the important questions ... is absurd.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but any public policy or the lack thereof affects millions of people. You can't not make a policy because you don't have data, because not making a policy is still making a policy. They have to move forward with the best data they have.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I imagine that once antibody testing comes out we'll find that many people have already had it and never even knew it was COVID19. Their are several studies that now support this idea.

Links please to the several studies.

 

[EvilChameleon]

Sunlight destroys the virus quickly, so wiping down outdoor surfaces doesn't seem to be required.

Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer

Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long under high-temperature, high-humidity conditions, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.

www.yahoo.com

It should be noted, as the article states, this has nothing to do with a decrease in cases during the Summer. Just that it doesn't survive well outside in the heat and sunlight.

 

[Isher]

Latest numbers for Florida reported in the last 24 hours - 1413 new reported cases, with an increase in deaths of 58.

View attachment 464313

I don’t understand how you’re interpreting this data. You’re consistently reporting higher cases and deaths per day than the website you’re citing. For example, according to your link, there were 12 reported deaths, not 58.

 

[DCBaker]

I don’t understand how you’re interpreting this data. You’re consistently reporting higher cases and deaths per day than the website you’re citing. For example, according to your link, there were 12 reported deaths, not 58.

The website I am citing the information directly from is the official Florida DOH here -

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Which comes from the FDOH website here -

COVID-19 | Florida Department of Health

COVID-19

floridahealthcovid19.gov

This is the information they gave at the 6:30pm update yesterday.

This is the information they have at the 6:30pm update today.

How else would you interpret those numbers?

 

[Patcheslee]

Interesting the projections from INME have added a projection on when "containment strategy" to their timeliness now. Even with projections looks like it will be awhile.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida

 

[The Mom]

This will show daily cases. More testing is being done so daily totals will rise. What’s important is the percentage of new cases. A couple of days ago it was 10.8. It’s now 10.2. When Orange County mayor talks he’ll often mention the percentage as a better indicator. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Pinellas nursing home evacuated after outbreak; 3 dead from coronavirus

A total of 95 residents have been removed from the Seminole Pavilion Rehabilitation nursing home, which will be closed and decontaminated.

www.tampabay.com

Some FL areas are still having an uptick in cases.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Pinellas nursing home evacuated after outbreak; 3 dead from coronavirus

A total of 95 residents have been removed from the Seminole Pavilion Rehabilitation nursing home, which will be closed and decontaminated.

www.tampabay.com

Some FL areas are still having an uptick in cases.

It’s unbelievable how bad nursing homes are getting hit. Such a shame. What happened in NJ is a disgrace.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

Links please to the several studies.

Reported by The Financial Times citing a study done at Oxford. There is a more recent study as well but still trying to find the link.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/9045...e-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

As for your thoughts on other outbreaks. Sure not every outbreak is identical but if you read about even small scale outbreaks you'll notice that the death rate always starts higher and goes down as testing improves.

It's only logical, there are likely millions of people with or recovered from Covid19 in the US right now that don't even know it. If you add those numbers to the number of infected and keep the death rate the same, then the death rate obviously drops, significantly.

 

[GoofGoof]

If people want to take the risk, they should be allowed to.

Sorry, it doesn’t work that way. Just like someone who wants to take a risk and drive 200 mph isn’t legally allowed to. Its not about risk to that individual.

The rest of what you said is a lot of the same back and forth we have been over and over so I have nothing new to add.

 

[Isher]

The website I am citing the information directly from is the official Florida DOH here -

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Which comes from the FDOH website here -

COVID-19 | Florida Department of Health

COVID-19

floridahealthcovid19.gov

This is the information they gave at the 6:30pm update yesterday.

View attachment 464356

This is the information they have at the 6:30pm update today.

View attachment 464357

How else would you interpret those numbers?

Thanks, I understand what you were doing now. However, I don’t think you’re getting accurate numbers that way because the numbers just don’t add up. You have routinely reported daily numbers in the 70s, 50s, 40s. If we’ve regularly had those numbers our total deaths would be much higher than 700+. I’m guessing there was a lag somewhere on the website. I do believe that’s why they added the deaths by day graph to help clarify that info.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Reported by The Financial Times citing a study done at Oxford. There is a more recent study as well but still trying to find the link.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/9045...e-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

As for your thoughts on other outbreaks. Sure not every outbreak is identical but if you read about even small scale outbreaks you'll notice that the death rate always starts higher and goes down as testing improves.

It's only logical, there are likely millions of people with or recovered from Covid19 in the US right now that don't even know it. If you had those numbers to the number of infected and keep the death rate the same, then the death rate obviously drops, significantly.

Thank you for the link. I just read it.
First of all it was centered in the United Kingdom. Secondly there is no info on how they came to these conclusions. I’m not saying that it’s bs but there’s so little to go on. One country, no info on how they came up with it.
I also don’t think it’s logical to assume that there are millions in the states with it or already recovered from it. There’s is not one shred of proof. Again, to your point, I don’t know if it could be true but i haven’t heard one expert in the field, or seen any study of the sort.
I do agree with your testing comment. We need so much more.

 

[sndral]

I imagine that once antibody testing comes out we'll find that many people have already had it and never even knew it was COVID19. Their are several studies that now support this idea.
...

Stanford just released the results of an interesting antibody study they conducted in Santa Clara County. Santa Clara county is where Silicon Valley is & it was hit w/ pretty high covid-19 numbers. Stanford’s results suggest that a much higher number (48,000 - 81,000) than reported in the county have had covid-19. However, only a small portion of the population (range approx. 2-4%) have developed antibodies and possible immunity, leaving well over 90% of the ‘herd’ still at risk.

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Stanford just released the results of an interesting antibody study they conducted in Santa Clara County. Santa Clara county is where Silicon Valley is & it was hit w/ pretty high covid-19 numbers. Stanford’s results suggest that a much higher number (48,000 - 81,000) than reported in the county have had covid-19. However, only a small portion of the population (range approx. 2-4%) have developed antibodies and possible immunity, leaving well over 90% of the ‘herd’ still at risk.

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...

www.medrxiv.org

I'd love to see a single city study done - test everyone who hasn't already tested positive for both active virus (asymptomatic) and antibodies (already had it but didn't know)...combine those with those who were previously known to have it and it could turn out to be quite a large number.

 

[DisneyCane]

Sweden, like the US, is lagging in testing thus your numbers of new cases may simply reflect that. Plus the source of your data isn’t named, so it’s problematic for that reason as well. A more useful metric would be number of hospitalizations or deaths, which Sweden isn’t doing too well w/, but even that isn’t foolproof since different countries have different criteria for what is/isn’t reported as a covid-19 death.
Realize as well that Sweden has taken steps to mitigate spread including limiting gatherings of more than 50, closing high schools & colleges and encouraging other mitigation measures which the population appears to be complying with. So whether something is labeled by a government as voluntary or mandatory is irrelevant if the behavioral outcome is the same. Sweden, like elsewhere, is taking an economic hit.

If you’re really curious about the data and want to really dig into it objectively consider this link http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#rates-norm-peaked which has a number of very interesting charts comparing most countries. There’s links in the Q&A section to his data and John Hopkins data.

The data source is worldometers.info. While the tests per capita partially explains the raw number of cases being lower, the shape of the curve is what I wanted to see.

 

[ItRhymes]

Thank you for the link. I just read it.
First of all it was centered in the United Kingdom. Secondly there is no info on how they came to these conclusions. I’m not saying that it’s bs but there’s so little to go on. One country, no info on how they came up with it.
I also don’t think it’s logical to assume that there are millions in the states with it or already recovered from it. There’s is not one shred of proof. Again, to your point, I don’t know if it could be true but i haven’t heard one expert in the field, or seen any study of the sort.
I do agree with your testing comment. We need so much more.

Interestingly enough I JUST ran across this right before coming to catch up on this thread. Seems like their might be something to this idea that many more people had or have it than we think and are just getting over it or have gotten over it on their own:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121

 

[GoofGoof]

Stanford just released the results of an interesting antibody study they conducted in Santa Clara County. Santa Clara county is where Silicon Valley is & it was hit w/ pretty high covid-19 numbers. Stanford’s results suggest that a much higher number (48,000 - 81,000) than reported in the county have had covid-19. However, only a small portion of the population (range approx. 2-4%) have developed antibodies and possible immunity, leaving well over 90% of the ‘herd’ still at risk.

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...

www.medrxiv.org

Interesting study. If the infection rate is really 50 fold nationwide that would be encouraging. The only downside is if its that much more contagious than thought the percent we need to hit herd immunity would likely be higher than 40-60%. They need to do more testing nationwide to see if that’s the case.

 

[DCBaker]

Thanks, I understand what you were doing now. However, I don’t think you’re getting accurate numbers that way because the numbers just don’t add up. You have routinely reported daily numbers in the 70s, 50s, 40s. If we’ve regularly had those numbers our total deaths would be much higher than 700+. I’m guessing there was a lag somewhere on the website. I do believe that’s why they added the deaths by day graph to help clarify that info.

That is why I've said "reported" numbers - that's the information they were giving.

However, I believe there is something there with the lag you mention - with a deeper dive into the PDF they've started posting, this is now being added to the top of the death information -

And scrolling through the line lists, it shows some as only being verified today (hence the numbers being updated), but the actual date of the death could have been from yesterday or a few weeks ago.