Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Stanford just released the results of an interesting antibody study they conducted in Santa Clara County. Santa Clara county is where Silicon Valley is & it was hit w/ pretty high covid-19 numbers. Stanford’s results suggest that a much higher number (48,000 - 81,000) than reported in the county have had covid-19. However, only a small portion of the population (range approx. 2-4%) have developed antibodies and possible immunity, leaving well over 90% of the ‘herd’ still at risk.


unfurl="true"]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=be77753b5f9c509cb865d14fbdaf97eeb78e11d5-1587139595-0-AWIUFx6wN0uXOvkl2GvKJJc-Ig8sPLjxRzO454lTi9KpWYjKbxnVGQzEHGD9bYZUKYUUOdrfRQ_wQREzNDVmpdEWVIZYt6UTI9m_LD7byikYQA-loXE677ZRO1gHfKAz7mccB9JD5q3Y8YVehLtYCxNulZzxgq75-rzgoHZ2Heyj5PDAftyTcJ9j-gS_9XvqhP1w_lcrCrvVy9EM4vDfOYSqAiDYODT4O2PXN776dtAuibDok5gMCdzZYcCoRi69cdjoFoqV7X4-dhUOTFhjUA5EzGIOpkN7fsqrkufnBv0pOXqb3nOUoVRFDs5ZdBzO9w_yicdwyhIdvht3lBZyMgA

That's kind of a pessimistic take on the study. 48,000-81,000 IS 2-4% of the population. The way you wrote it made it seem like less than the number infected were determined to have antibodies.

If this study is correct it means that there are 25-43 times the number of cases vs. reported cases. The optimistic way to look at it is that would make the mortality rate as low as or lower than the flu.

I think that when similar studies are done in NYC they will find that over 40% of the population there has had it.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Interestingly enough I JUST ran across this right before coming to catch up on this thread. Seems like their might be something to this idea that many more people had or have it than we think and are just getting over it or have gotten over it on their own:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121

Even more reason to get testing ramped up! It would give us answers in so many ways.

 

[GoofGoof]

That's kind of a pessimistic take on the study. 48,000-81,000 IS 2-4% of the population. The way you wrote it made it seem like less than the number infected were determined to have antibodies.

If this study is correct it means that there are 25-43 times the number of cases vs. reported cases. The optimistic way to look at it is that would make the mortality rate as low as or lower than the flu.

I think that when similar studies are done in NYC they will find that over 40% of the population there has had it.

Nationwide if the number is 43 X reported that means about 10% of the population have been infected. That also means the R-naught is likely much higher than originally thought. Not measles high, but we aren’t getting to herd immunity as easily.

 

[Isher]

And scrolling through the line lists, it shows some as only being verified today (hence the numbers being updated), but the actual date of the death could have been from yesterday or a few weeks ago.

Thanks for pointing that out. That’s exactly what I thought was happening.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but any public policy or the lack thereof affects millions of people. You can't not make a policy because you don't have data, because not making a policy is still making a policy. They have to move forward with the best data they have.

...or stop acting like greedy babies and get the damn data as best/soonest you can.

And that’s not been committed to yet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here’s a good article about possibilities...

Orlando's hotels and theme parks will eventually reopen, but things will never be the same

Prior to the Spanish flu, it was common for offices and classrooms to use a single, shared drinking cup. Today this practice seems unthinkable as...

www.google.com

 

[sndral]

That's kind of a pessimistic take on the study. 48,000-81,000 IS 2-4% of the population. The way you wrote it made it seem like less than the number infected were determined to have antibodies.

If this study is correct it means that there are 25-43 times the number of cases vs. reported cases. The optimistic way to look at it is that would make the mortality rate as low as or lower than the flu.

I think that when similar studies are done in NYC they will find that over 40% of the population there has had it.

Oh, my summary wasn’t very artful then, the numbers show that at least in Santa Clara far more have had covid-19 than our current tests reveal.
Hopefully we’ll see more research such as this in several different regions to gain a better understanding of what we’re dealing with.

 

[Giss Neric]

Floridians at it again.

Florida man threatened to shoot up Publix because ‘not enough people’ had masks: cops

A Florida man threatened to shoot up a supermarket because he was infuriated that “not enough people” had masks on during the coronavirus outbreak, police said. Robert Kovner, a Brookly…

nypost.com

 

[jmp85]

Even more reason to get testing ramped up! It would give us answers in so many ways.

Agreed. We really need more of these types of studies across the country. I would be ecstatic if similar numbers were found in other areas of the country, particularly hot spots. The downside as someone mentioned would be that this thing in insanely contagious, the positive takeaway would be that the mortality rate is much, much lower than feared. I've been trying to ride the optimistic train during this whole thing, so here's to hoping.

 

[davidfarley]

Stanford just released the results of an interesting antibody study they conducted in Santa Clara County. Santa Clara county is where Silicon Valley is & it was hit w/ pretty high covid-19 numbers. Stanford’s results suggest that a much higher number (48,000 - 81,000) than reported in the county have had covid-19. However, only a small portion of the population (range approx. 2-4%) have developed antibodies and possible immunity, leaving well over 90% of the ‘herd’ still at risk.

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...

www.medrxiv.org

The positive from this study is that there are possibly 50-85 times as many cases as being reported which would bring the fatality rate down drastically. It could very well end up being that this virus, though more contagious than influenza, has a similar rate of mortality.

 

[davidfarley]

...or stop acting like greedy babies and get the damn data as best/soonest you can.

And that’s not been committed to yet.

I'm not sure I understand your reasoning. You do realize at least 22,000,000 people have lost jobs in the past month. I guess they're just greedy?

 

[Lilofan]

If the chance that WDW reopens in June, the Grande Lakes Resort which is the JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton is a luxurious oasis of a resort complex 5 min from Sea World and 20 min from WDW. Starting in June room rates at the JW starts at $132 per night. That's practically giving the room away. Summer rates are usually quadruple the price. The Grande Lakes makes the Grand Floridian look like a Days Inn.

 

[Calmdownnow]

It should be noted, as the article states, this has nothing to do with a decrease in cases during the Summer. Just that it doesn't survive well outside in the heat and sunlight.

How well does it survive in air conditioned environments?

 

[George]

That is why I've said "reported" numbers - that's the information they were giving.

However, I believe there is something there with the lag you mention - with a deeper dive into the PDF they've started posting, this is now being added to the top of the death information -

View attachment 464365

And scrolling through the line lists, it shows some as only being verified today (hence the numbers being updated), but the actual date of the death could have been from yesterday or a few weeks ago.

Saved me some time. I went through the same thing with the state of Indiana website a week or so ago. I'm glad you all figured it out.

 

[George]

Thanks for pointing that out. That’s exactly what I thought was happening.

Patience is required for data analysis, since it takes 10-14 days for number of anything (cases, deaths) to be finalized for a given day. Anyway, I'm really glad it was figured out.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

View attachment 464386

No one is “removing” restrictions - the restrictions are being adjusted or revised to allow for slightly more activity. For example, you can go out to the store, but only so many at a time and with a face covering. If anything, more individual restrictions are being implemented, while broader ones are being relaxed.

This is not a “wide open” opening...not even close.

I will wait for the rock throwing to start now.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Disney has put itself in a bit of a pickle. I believe the cost of a single day park ticket after 9/11 was $48. Today that ticket will cost you anywhere from $109 to $159. Numbers that nowhere near reflect inflation. And annual passes were around $350 at that time and now are up to nearly $1200. So there are NOT going to be as many people willing to just take a chance. There are less passholders...there are less people who can afford the prices.

WDW Ticket Increase Guide

Getting Started - Planning your trip to Walt Disney World in Orlando Florida

allears.net

Looking at the prices increases I get it the parks are crowded, but darn it when the good times were good maybe they should have started looking into opening ya know a new park in the states, maybe in Texas to help with crowds instead of pricing people out.

 

[Lilofan]

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People Make 'Mad Dash' To Florida Beach That Reopened Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

“It was as if they had been cooped up for so long, for years," CNN's Randi Kaye described the scene in Jacksonville to Anderson Cooper.

www.yahoo.com

Are the Jacksonville Florida adults worse than the kids? You give an inch they take a foot..

 

[GoofGoof]

No one is “removing” restrictions - the restrictions are being adjusted or revised to allow for slightly more activity. For example, you can go out to the store, but only so many at a time and with a face covering. If anything, more individual restrictions are being implemented, while broader ones are being relaxed.

This is not a “wide open” opening...not even close.

I will wait for the rock throwing to start now.

I agree that’s what the task force and most governors are saying. The problem is the execution. This doesn’t look like “slightly more activity” to me. No masks, lots of people bunched together. Definitely a group of more than 10 people. They had people lined up for a rope drop. I know it’s just one example but it’s a bit worrisome to see.

Jacksonville Beach after it re-opened yesterday:

 

[monykalyn]

Are the Jacksonville Florida adults worse than the kids? You give an inch they take a foot..

who’s to say that family groups aren’t the ones close together?
Later pictures show much more spread out. Really what it says is that people can’t be locked up with no where to go for weeks on end. I’d bet things slow down with that first rush over with, and not sure of the purpose of closing in afternoon- why not allow more time instead of concentrating people into a couple time slots?!