Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Over 63,000 people have died of the flu so far this season. The country has overreacted due to the faulty 'models'. When the models are so far off I no longer believe them. One day future generations will look at what is going on now - the power grabs from governors on the left etc and say 'these people were crazy'.

The “it’s just the flu“ argument has been made quite a bit already. It’s off limits now per the mom.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

There is a political forum. Direct your comments there please. We are trying to keep this thread open.

 

[zengoth]

I agree that’s what the task force and most governors are saying. The problem is the execution. This doesn’t look like “slightly more activity” to me. No masks, lots of people bunched together. Definitely a group of more than 10 people. They had people lined up for a rope drop. I know it’s just one example but it’s a bit worrisome to see.

to be fair, it looks like everyone's trying to follow the rules. There were no rules to wear face masks - people are attempting to space apart - no one is sunbathing or setting up camp. The only (unforeseen?) problem is no one can limit the number of folks at a beach (unless they set up checkpoint charlies everywhere).

 

[GoofGoof]

who’s to say that family groups aren’t the ones close together?
Later pictures show much more spread out. Really what it says is that people can’t be locked up with no where to go for weeks on end. I’d bet things slow down with that first rush over with, and not sure of the purpose of closing in afternoon- why not allow more time instead of concentrating people into a couple time slots?!

I agree that some of the pictures from further away can be deceptive. In general I still think the overall scene is not what the government had in mind for a phase 1 of re-opening. At least it’s outdoors and not a mob inside a closed off space, but there isn’t much gradual about it. I also think it was foolish to open just 1 beach. If they all opened in a coordinated fashion it may not have been such an event.

 

[Andrew C]

to be fair, it looks like everyone's trying to follow the rules. There were no rules to wear face masks - people are attempting to space apart - no one is sunbathing or setting up camp. The only (unforeseen?) problem is no one can limit the number of folks at a beach (unless they set up checkpoint charlies everywhere).

people were itching to get out it seems. As you said, it looks like they are doing the 6 foot spacing.

 

[Disney4family]

 

[Andrew C]

Did y’all already talk about the IHME model lowering the death projections again? That’s good news.

 

[Polynesia]

According to new data from the Florida Health COVID-19 projection model,Florida has since passed the peak of COVID-19 daily deaths, meaning that after June 1, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering sizes.


https://-buzzy.imgix.net/2020/04/Screen-Shot-2020-04-18-at-9.52.00-AM.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=php-1.2.1&q=85
Yesterday, the White House issued new federal guidelines for the “Opening Up America Again” effort, listing the three phases each state will eventually go though before clearing Phase 3, which would be considered life after a COVID-19 vaccine or at the very least a full drop-off in cases. In our analysis of the new guidelines, it isn’t until the state enters Phase Two that we’d imagine the parks could somewhat reopen, with Non-Essential Travel resuming at that time, and only moderate social distancing required. You can read our full analysis of the new guidelines here.

 

[GoofGoof]

Did y’all already talk about the IHME model lowering the death projections again? That’s good news.

Down is always good.

They also removed the statement that the model assumed total social distancing in place through May 2020 and replaced it with Current social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented

I take that to mean they started to adjust the model for phased re-openings before the end of May and it hasn’t moved the needle. Pretty encouraging.

 

[marni1971]

I agree that’s what the task force and most governors are saying. The problem is the execution. This doesn’t look like “slightly more activity” to me. No masks, lots of people bunched together. Definitely a group of more than 10 people. They had people lined up for a rope drop. I know it’s just one example but it’s a bit worrisome to see.

Jacksonville Beach after it re-opened yesterday:
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In all fairness those are long lens photos. Subjects in focus are bound to stack up, or look closer together.

Maybe that was the idea.

 

[GoofGoof]

According to new data from the Florida Health COVID-19 projection model,Florida has since passed the peak of COVID-19 daily deaths, meaning that after June 1, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering sizes.

Yesterday, the White House issued new federal guidelines for the “Opening Up America Again” effort, listing the three phases each state will eventually go though before clearing Phase 3, which would be considered life after a COVID-19 vaccine or at the very least a full drop-off in cases. In our analysis of the new guidelines, it isn’t until the state enters Phase Two that we’d imagine the parks could somewhat reopen, with Non-Essential Travel resuming at that time, and only moderate social distancing required. You can read our full analysis of the new guidelines here.

I think there’s likely to be a big debate on whether theme parks can open in phase 2 or wait until phase 3. I still think it’s hard to open in phase 2 under those guidelines, but that doesn’t mean things won’t open then. They are guidelines not mandatory.

 

[GoofGoof]

In all fairness those are long lens photos. Subjects in focus are bound to stack up, or look closer together.

Maybe that was the idea.

Agreed. They were clipped from a news story that was not in favor of the beaches re-opening. I also think if WDW re-opens June 1 there will be similar pictures and stories. It’s even more difficult to avoid people at a theme park.

 

[The Mom]

I agree that some of the pictures from further away can be deceptive. In general I still think the overall scene is not what the government had in mind for a phase 1 of re-opening. At least it’s outdoors and not a mob inside a closed off space, but there isn’t much gradual about it. I also think it was foolish to open just 1 beach. If they all opened in a coordinated fashion it may not have been such an event.

I agree about the pictures. Take a look of the photo with the policeman on an ATV - do you really think that little girl in pink can reach out and touch his shoulder? It sure looks that way from the photo due to perspective. This sometimes makes crowds look bigger and more packed together than they actually are. An aerial photo would have been a better indicator of whether or not people were keeping social distancing.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree about the pictures. Take a look of the photo with the policeman on an ATV - do you really think that little girl in pink can reach out and touch his shoulder? It sure looks that way from the photo due to perspective. This sometimes makes crowds look bigger and more packed together than they actually are. An aerial photo would have been a better indicator of whether or not people were keeping social distancing.

This shot looks a lot better:

I‘ve never been to the beach in Jacksonville but my father in law does frequently. I keep zooming in to see if I see him

I looks like the only problem area was down by this pier which might be a more popular area or near a parking lot:

 

[Polynesia]

I think there’s likely to be a big debate on whether theme parks can open in phase 2 or wait until phase 3. I still think it’s hard to open in phase 2 under those guidelines, but that doesn’t mean things won’t open then. They are guidelines not mandatory.

I’m wondering if it will be a combination somehow between phase 2 and phase 3. Iger gave an interview yesterday to ABC reiterating safety cones first along with guests being comfortable. He’s on the committee for California reopening.

 

[Incomudro]

to be fair, it looks like everyone's trying to follow the rules. There were no rules to wear face masks - people are attempting to space apart - no one is sunbathing or setting up camp. The only (unforeseen?) problem is no one can limit the number of folks at a beach (unless they set up checkpoint charlies everywhere).

And remember, 2D photos are very poor at showing depth.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m wondering if it will be a combination somehow between phase 2 and phase 3. Iger gave an interview yesterday to ABC reiterating safety cones first along with guests being comfortable. He’s on the committee for California reopening.

Maybe Disney Springs could open first. The resorts could be OK except for elevators. Maybe the low rise resorts open first. The parks themselves are tough. Especially Disney where even the coasters are indoors. An amusement park where most things are outside would be easier if they space out the lines for rides and food stands. I still think if they follow the suggestion of no groups over 50 you can’t open WDW parks.

 

[MJJME]

Just get lots of rolls of tape and replace frequently. They could also paint it on the ground but that’s a little too permanent.

There won’t be lines. They will use boarding groups for every ride

 

[OrlandoRising]

There are lots of reasons not to trust the IMHE model.

“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say

 

[Kevin_W]

Down is always good.

They also removed the statement that the model assumed total social distancing in place through May 2020 and replaced it with Current social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented

I take that to mean they started to adjust the model for phased re-openings before the end of May and it hasn’t moved the needle. Pretty encouraging.

Right, every single update of that model for the past month has been significantly downward. I hope that trend continues,