Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

"The state’s mortality rates remains persistently high, at 7.4% with at least 19,453 fatalities..." they say in the same article that estimates 2.7 million New Yorkers have antibodies. Some commentary that the calculated mortality rate means nothing would be nice.

(19453/2700000 = 0.7%. So a couple orders of magnitude range at least for morbidity).

The 7.4% is fatalities of officially documented cases...I believe?

If the total fatality rate is 0.7%...that’s pretty inline with the early predictions.

 

[George]

I can speak to this. A few days ago in Staten Island, NY (part of NYC) randomly a pop up center for testing made the local newspaper here. You werent allowed to call in to request testing, they were just randomly selecting people at a local Met Supermarket to be tested. So I think they are trying to get as diverse a sampling as possible. Marie

Cuomo comments on that in the article. He points out that these were people that were out and about and thus more likely to be infected than someone who hasn't gone out at all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe.

On some level, I think every person would like to now if they have been sick at some point.

But I could also see a number of folks hesitating to be tested for a number of reasons.

I said this once before i think...I was sick for weeks in February (ironically after coming back from Orlando and not setting a foot in wdw for the first time ever) and had weird, persistent symptoms for awhile. Primarily what felt like diverticulitis or kidney infections. Painful...lots of fatigue.

I had full scans at the hospital on 2/17 and they found nothing...tested negative for flu, mono and pneumonia also.

I’m not prone to illness...never had anything like that.

I’d be very interested in the anitbody tests. Which look to be required soon by my governor.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Disney hasn't even posted earnings yet and already S&P is downgrading their credit rating out of pure speculation. Idiotic IMO.

Disney Credit Rating Downgraded Over Theme Park Uncertainty Amid COVID-19

S&P Global Ratings on Thursday downgraded Walt Disney Co.'s credit rating over concerns the coronavirus crisis will slow a reopening of the studio's theme parks and film and TV production.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

That reminded to look up the next investors call, May 5th, 1:30 PM PST. Reminder set. Will be very fascinating.

 

[wannabeBelle]

Cuomo comments on that in the article. He points out that these were people that were out and about and thus more likely to be infected than someone who hasn't gone out at all.

Potentially. However if I was infected and was actually feeling sick ( fever coughing etc) I probably wouldnt be out and about. If I had caught the virus and was asymptomatic, I'd certainly want to know!!! I agree that these people (myself included, I have to go out for groceries) stand a better chance of being infected but I dont know how much that would skew the numbers for me. I think that would be the exact numbers you would want to test honestly. Of a normal population, how many people have the antibodies is a more interesting question for me, than testing someone who had virtually no chance of catching COVID due to the fact that they were in isolation the entire time. Marie

 

[Disney Analyst]

This is related to strange blood clotting they've noticed this virus can cause.


And with studies that it can live in male genitalia hidden, keeping men infect longer, it can also attack the GI tract and the heart... I think we have to realize this is not just a respiratory disease.

 

[George]

Potentially. However if I was infected and was actually feeling sick ( fever coughing etc) I probably wouldnt be out and about. If I had caught the virus and was asymptomatic, I'd certainly want to know!!! I agree that these people (myself included, I have to go out for groceries) stand a better chance of being infected but I dont know how much that would skew the numbers for me. I think that would be the exact numbers you would want to test honestly. Of a normal population, how many people have the antibodies is a more interesting question for me, than testing someone who had virtually no chance of catching COVID due to the fact that they were in isolation the entire time. Marie

Knowing the pool you are sampling from is important. If say, 10 million people had been hunkering down the whole time and don't have antibodies, that would be good to know. It not only impacts mortality calculations (impacts the number you are dividing by), but also gives information about the timeliness of the lockdown, the effectiveness of the lockdown, etc.

I hope you're doing alright. I've got to get back to work. Its hard to resist being on here all the time with my virtual Disney friends during this surreal time.

 

[Slpy3270]

Looks like this article from earlier this month aged well...

How Disney Made Sure It Will Get Through the Coronavirus Crisis | The Motley Fool

The company is hunkering down and increasing its financial flexibility.

www.fool.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looks like this article from earlier this month aged well...

How Disney Made Sure It Will Get Through the Coronavirus Crisis | The Motley Fool

The company is hunkering down and increasing its financial flexibility.

www.fool.com

Did they announce earnings?

I saw they borrowed a cool $5,000,000,000 from BofA on the DL a couple weeks back...

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Well so much for Gilead. Failure with remdesivir (the drug they had for COVID-19) on clinicals. Sunk the market until Powell plugged in the printing machines.

 

[Slpy3270]

Did they announce earnings?

I saw they borrowed a cool $5,000,000,000 from BofA on the DL a couple weeks back...

That was Citi, if I recall. Suspiciously they affirmed a "Buy" rating despite downgrading the stock price.

 

[DCBaker]

Did they announce earnings?

I saw they borrowed a cool $5,000,000,000 from BofA on the DL a couple weeks back...

On 5/5.

 

[DCBaker]

Gov. Cooper extends NC Stay at Home order through May 8: ‘We need more time’

Gov. Roy Cooper extended North Carolina’s Stay at Home order through May 8, announcing a gradual three-step phase.

www.wbtv.com

Gov. Roy Cooper extended North Carolina’s Stay at Home order through May 8. Cooper made the announcement in a press conference Thursday.

“Our state is not ready to lift restrictions yet,” Cooper said, “We need more time.”

 

[GoofGoof]

Well so much for Gilead. Failure with remdesivir (the drug they had for COVID-19) on clinicals. Sunk the market until Powell plugged in the printing machines.

They are disputing the report and saying the study was inconclusive. But it’s a disappointment either way.

Gilead disputes report that its drug flopped in leaked coronavirus trial

A closely-watched Gilead Sciences Inc <GILD.O> experimental antiviral drug failed to help patients with severe COVID-19 in a clinical trial conducted in China, but the drugmaker said the findings were inconclusive because the study was terminated early.

www.reuters.com

 

[wdisney9000]

Yeah I've heard this one before. I have a friend who has the same mindset and wants me to go to lunch with him on Monday. Hard pass.

What you aren't capturing is that we aren't even at the peak of contractions and deaths yet, we aren't near the guidance from the WH and most importantly you think just because Target and Walmart are open (because they have groceries btw) that everything else should open? People will start to think that everything is fine now and go into their bad habits again. People need groceries, that is why they are open and yes there are risks with that. People don't need to Bowl or get their nails done. I'm curious how you think people will social distance when getting their hair cut/done?

You're putting words in my mouth. I did not say that everything should open up because grocery stores are open. I simply asked how is an environment such as a restaurant that is much more easy to control and keep sanitized any less safe then an environment such as a grocery store that is nowhere near as easy to keep clean and sanitized on a constant basis?

there have not been major spikes in coronavirus cases for grocery store workers or big-box store workers since they have remained open. These are the same employees going there 5 to 7 days a week and being continually exposed to that environment that is nowhere near as controlled as a smaller office space or restaurant. Again, I am not championing that every business should just open up and go back to business as normal. nor should people begin to crowd restaurants or other businesses that do decide to reopen in the next few days. But slightly easing restrictions over time doesn't seem extremely crazy considering that we can use the current state of stores that are open as a litmus test of sorts.

if grocery and other big box stores had seen a dramatic spike in their employees contracting the virus then we would know that we would require more shelter-in-place time. That simply has not happened though.

 

[sndral]

New study suggests 2.7 million New Yorkers had the virus.

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

The state's mortality rates remains persistently high at about 7.4%. The antibody testing indicates the actual death rate may be far lower.

www.cnbc.com

The almost 14% number is surprisingly high compared to the 2 California studies which both were at approx. 4% (USC/LA https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/ Stanford/Santa Clara https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html )and the Netherlands blood bank study @ 3% (https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/202...ers-health-coronavirus-netherlands-study.html)

 

[wannabeBelle]

Knowing the pool you are sampling from is important. If say, 10 million people had been hunkering down the whole time and don't have antibodies, that would be good to know. It not only impacts mortality calculations (impacts the number you are dividing by), but also gives information about the timeliness of the lockdown, the effectiveness of the lockdown, etc.

I hope you're doing alright. I've got to get back to work. Its hard to resist being on here all the time with my virtual Disney friends during this surreal time.

Im fine. For the most part, I've been doing what I was told to, and being fairly cautious when I have to go into a store etc. I can't wait for life to get back to normal though!!! Hope you and your family are doing good as well. Marie

 

[Andrew C]

I don't grasp why states are still extending their lockdowns and stuff. The data and numbers are indicating Covid19 is way less lethal than what what we initially thought when we went into lockdown.

From my knowledge hospitals and healthcare capacity are doing fine and can handle an increase in cases and other pressure going back to "normal". What's with the hesitation about even opening the most basic things?

well, if they don’t meet phase 1 requirements, the recommendation is to not start reopening. I don’t know NCs current situation.

 

[rk03221]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney doesn’t reopen at all this year, it doesn’t look good. I really hope this is under control by next school year

 

[GoofGoof]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney doesn’t reopen at all this year, it doesn’t look good. I really hope this is under control by next school year

I would be shocked if WDW didn’t open in some capacity in 2020. I would probably be equally shocked if it opened in full by June 1. I think both extremes are unlikely. There’s likely a middle ground that makes sense, but things change a lot so quickly so who really knows.