Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney doesn’t reopen at all this year, it doesn’t look good. I really hope this is under control by next school year

I think it’s unlikley they don’t reopen as it stands NOW...

But a second spike or reversal of the tracking downward would completely change that.

If there a spike that puts people back in the hospital and causes more business disruption...then it’s a year lost.

It’s the tightrope that business and pols are walking here. It all had better work whether you’re cautious or risky

 

[GoofGoof]

If the limited anti-body testing proves to be true across the board then the mortality rate is probably much lower than basing it on positive tested cases. That’s good news.


I’m not sure mortality rate is the big driver of policy. Hospital capacity has been good and we haven‘t seen the system overrun but we’ve also shut down all non-essential surgeries and nobody is out and about getting into car crashes or bar fights. As we start to allow non-essential travel and businesses open and bring back elective surgeries some of the excess hospital capacity will be eaten up. I would hope that part of the plans to re-open would be to ramp up supplies and capacity in anticipation of that but I don’t know if that’s happened yet everywhere.

 

[rk03221]

Disney parks' coronavirus shutdown may last through January — Fox Business

Social distancing policies may make amusement parks such as Disney World less enticing until a coronavirus vaccine is available

apple.news

 

[DisneyDebRob]

If the limited anti-body testing proves to be true across the board then the mortality rate is probably much lower than basing it on positive tested cases. That’s good news.


I’m not sure mortality rate is the big driver of policy. Hospital capacity has been good and we haven‘t seen the system overrun but we’ve also shut down all non-essential surgeries and nobody is out and about getting into car crashes or bar fights. As we start to allow non-essential travel and businesses open and bring back elective surgeries some of the excess hospital capacity will be eaten up. I would hope that part of the plans to re-open would be to ramp up supplies and capacity in anticipation of that but I don’t know if that’s happened yet everywhere.

You brought up a point that I don’t think is mentioned nearly as much as it should.
I think people think that by slowly opening, they are not taking into account what else the hospitals will be doing along with the people catching the virus that need hospital stays. Traffic will be back up, meaning more accidents.. elective surgeries will increase, more rooms taken. Not sure how many bar fights there will be but your point is taken on more people outside so means more accidents. No wonder healthcare workers are screaming at the government to please wait.

 

[Herdman]

Looks like they have taken another week's operating hours off the calendar. Was showing hours starting May 10th, now it's May 17th. Our trip was to start May 15th, but so far we haven't received a notification from Disney.

 

[Calmdownnow]

I’d be very interested in the anitbody tests. Which look to be required soon by my governor.

Things are a bit hit and miss in respect of which anti-body test works. The Abbott Labs test that was being lauded by the WH was showing a 15% incorrect testing rate in recent quality assurance studies. The tests the UK bought were even worse -- only 70% accuracy. I was all in a few weeks ago on "the anti-body test will save the day" line, but a 1 in 7 or 1 in 3 failure rate is not boosting my confidence.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looks like they have taken another week's operating hours off the calendar. Was showing hours starting May 10th, now it's May 17th. Our trip was to start May 15th, but so far we haven't received a notification from Disney.

It’s going to be cancelled for sure...wait for them to come to you to get as much compensation possible

 

[Kevin_W]

Things are a bit hit and miss in respect of which anti-body test works. The Abbott Labs test that was being lauded by the WH was showing a 15% incorrect testing rate in recent quality assurance studies. The tests the UK bought were even worse -- only 70% accuracy. I was all in a few weeks ago on "the anti-body test will save the day" line, but a 1 in 7 or 1 in 3 failure rate is not boosting my confidence.

Frankly, I still feel pretty good with those numbers. The solution to noisy/bad data is more data, not less data. so you take what you have, acknowledge that there will be errors, and do extra testing to makeup for that.

 

[GoofGoof]

You brought up a point that I don’t think is mentioned nearly as much as it should.
I think people think that by slowly opening, they are not taking into account what else the hospitals will be doing along with the people catching the virus that need hospital stays. Traffic will be back up, meaning more accidents.. elective surgeries will increase, more rooms taken. Not sure how many bar fights there will be but your point is taken on more people outside so means more accidents. No wonder healthcare workers are screaming at the government to please wait.

I think a good way to look at it is we need to keep the level of Covid-19 hospital cases about constant and down in some areas. This way if the excess capacity is taken up by those other factors you can effectively stay below 100% full. Assuming we have peaked and the total number of cases is dropping then it makes sense that the number hospitalized would drop. You turn the faucet on at a slow drip and wait to see the result. If we still aren’t overrun, turn it on more. Eventually we may need to pull back some too. Its all about managing to an acceptable case level. If we had a larger capacity of hospital rooms like a place like Sweden then we would have more wiggle room to loosen things up faster.

This is why the mortality rate and even the total number of cases is less relevant. If a bunch of people were sick and asymptomatic or just sheltered at home they didn’t impact the hospital systems. The number that matters is total number of people hospitalized which we actually have. That should drive policy more than anything else.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Things are a bit hit and miss in respect of which anti-body test works. The Abbott Labs test that was being lauded by the WH was showing a 15% incorrect testing rate in recent quality assurance studies. The tests the UK bought were even worse -- only 70% accuracy. I was all in a few weeks ago on "the anti-body test will save the day" line, but a 1 in 7 or 1 in 3 failure rate is not boosting my confidence.

Well that would matter if I made the mistake of trusting anyone promoting medical tests for monetery reasons...and I will not.

The proper test will come...it just may not be available yet.

 

[Calmdownnow]

I simply asked how is an environment such as a restaurant that is much more easy to control and keep sanitized any less safe then an environment such as a grocery store that is nowhere near as easy to keep clean and sanitized on a constant basis?

There is a graphic out there which shows how many neighboring dinners were infected by a asymptomatic covid positive person in an evening in a restaurant. 2 probable factors contributed to the spread -- firstly, everyone dining was there for at least an hour (not just briefly passing through any air molecules) and secondly, the air circulation via AC moved the virus droplets beyond the "social distancing parameters. Hand washing, purell sanitorization is not sufficient to destroy air-borne viruses.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There is a graphic out there which shows how many neighboring dinners were infected by a asymptomatic covid positive person in an evening in a restaurant. 2 probable factors contributed to the spread -- firstly, everyone dining was there for at least an hour (not just briefly passing through any air molecules) and secondly, the air circulation via AC moved the virus droplets beyond the "social distancing parameters. Hand washing, purell sanitorization is not sufficient to destroy air-borne viruses.

It’s been widely shown the last couple of days...it was actually a Chinese model based on what they know and observation of patterns.

1 asymptomatic person spread the virus to 23 people in one outing.

The transmission has always been the problem with this.

 

[Calmdownnow]

If a bunch of people were sick and asymptomatic or just sheltered at home they didn’t impact the hospital systems.

They impact the hospital system if a) they don't realize they are carriers/spreaders of the disease and so don't feel a need to self-isolate; b) they then infect family members or co-workers who do require hospitalization; and c) they are sick with symptoms but go to work anyway because they don't get sick pay if they don't work.

 

[hopemax]

Sobering look at how this is going in a country that does not have the advantages the US has.

Ecuador

Official number of people who have died from coronavirus as of April 15th: 503
Number of deaths above normal yearly average March-April: ~7,600

Ecuador’s Death Toll During Outbreak Is Among the Worst in the World (Published 2020)

A New York Times analysis suggests that Ecuador’s death toll is 15 times higher than its official tally of coronavirus deaths, highlighting the damage the virus can do in developing countries.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DCBaker]

Illinois extending stay-at-home order until the end of May.

"Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker today announced he is extending the nearly five-week-old stay-at-home order through the end of May, reopening some state parks and requiring masks be worn in places where social distancing isn’t possible.

The governor also made some changes to the order, allowing some businesses to reopen, such as nurseries and garden centers, and non-essential retail stores to open for online orders or curbside pickup beginning May 1. But he largely ordered other businesses to remain closed to the walk-in public, including restaurants. "

Gov. JB Pritzker Extends Illinois’ Stay-At-Home Order Another 30 Days

www.wbez.org

 

[MisterPenguin]

Not exactly advanced calculus to guess that a huge business that is probably 2/3 frozen isn’t doing too well, is it?

And frozen 2!

 

[lazyboy97o]

You're putting words in my mouth. I did not say that everything should open up because grocery stores are open. I simply asked how is an environment such as a restaurant that is much more easy to control and keep sanitized any less safe then an environment such as a grocery store that is nowhere near as easy to keep clean and sanitized on a constant basis?

there have not been major spikes in coronavirus cases for grocery store workers or big-box store workers since they have remained open. These are the same employees going there 5 to 7 days a week and being continually exposed to that environment that is nowhere near as controlled as a smaller office space or restaurant. Again, I am not championing that every business should just open up and go back to business as normal. nor should people begin to crowd restaurants or other businesses that do decide to reopen in the next few days. But slightly easing restrictions over time doesn't seem extremely crazy considering that we can use the current state of stores that are open as a litmus test of sorts.

if grocery and other big box stores had seen a dramatic spike in their employees contracting the virus then we would know that we would require more shelter-in-place time. That simply has not happened though.

The issue is not just the cleanliness of the locations themselves. The bigger point is to limit personal interactions, especially those over a longer period of time.

 

[Herdman]

It’s going to be cancelled for sure...wait for them to come to you to get as much compensation possible

Oh absolutely. I've known if was going to be cancelled for weeks.

 

[Kevin_W]

This is why the mortality rate and even the total number of cases is less relevant. If a bunch of people were sick and asymptomatic or just sheltered at home they didn’t impact the hospital systems. The number that matters is total number of people hospitalized which we actually have. That should drive policy more than anything else.

That seems quite reasonable.

In my state (Ohio) there have been 296 hospitalizations in the past week, 110 in the past 4 days. Not including the temp. hospitals set up, we have >14,000 beds in the state. Friends of mine that work in hospitals say capacity is far far from an issue.

If we had a larger capacity of hospital rooms like a place like Sweden then we would have more wiggle room to loosen things up faster.

I just wanted to point out that we have more hospital rooms and nearly double the ICU beds per capita than Sweden. We argue a lot about healthcare in the USA, but most of those arguments revolve around $$ in one way or another. AS far as quality of care and capacity, the US is still a world leader.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Maybe missed this being posted but preliminary results out for New York State antibody testing. 3000 tests done. 13.9% positive for antibodies. If these numbers hold, mortality rate would be below 1%.

"The state’s mortality rates remains persistently high, at 7.4% with at least 19,453 fatalities..." they say in the same article that estimates 2.7 million New Yorkers have antibodies. Some commentary that the calculated mortality rate means nothing would be nice.

(19453/2700000 = 0.7%. So a couple orders of magnitude range at least for morbidity).

I don't grasp why states are still extending their lockdowns and stuff. The data and numbers are indicating Covid19 is way less lethal than what what we initially thought when we went into lockdown.

From my knowledge hospitals and healthcare capacity are doing fine and can handle an increase in cases and other pressure going back to "normal". What's with the hesitation about even opening the most basic things?

The true mortality rate will remain an unknown until there are a lot more randomized surveys of who has actually been infected and inclusion of *all* the deaths that are COVID related.

The death rates right now are much higher than historical averages even including in known COVID deaths. Which means there are a lot more COVID deaths that have been happening that aren't being attributed to COVID as they should.

So, if you really don't know how many have had the virus and how many have died... the mortality rate remains an unknown.

Right now it seems that the number of infected and the number who've died are both higher than we thought.