ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Ok but when can I return to the Wilderness Lodge gym? These guns don’t chisel themselves. I won’t be able to lift four Dole Whips to my mouth soon if this continues. Then what?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
...and is well past its peak...So New York and New Jersey can relax social distancing sooner than Florida? I'm not buying that. I'm not arguing that Florida should be moved up but it seems that, at a minimum, NY and NJ should be in the same date range as FL. The NYC metro area has almost half of all cases in the U.S.
Latest IHME COVID-19 model pushes easing of social distancing restrictions for Florida further into June
Forecasting the containment of the virus is a fluid situation, and timelines have already moved 14 days in just the last few days.www.wdwmagic.com
Nuance.
electric
Active Member
This basically rules out any June opening at allSo New York and New Jersey can relax social distancing sooner than Florida? I'm not buying that. I'm not arguing that Florida should be moved up but it seems that, at a minimum, NY and NJ should be in the same date range as FL. The NYC metro area has almost half of all cases in the U.S.
Latest IHME COVID-19 model pushes easing of social distancing restrictions for Florida further into June
Forecasting the containment of the virus is a fluid situation, and timelines have already moved 14 days in just the last few days.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
I was quite stunned yesterday when I learned that my mother didn't know about the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. She'd never heard of it.Social Distancing was used during the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918. Cities that did more social distancing (earlier and longer) had lower death rates.
How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu
Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.www.nationalgeographic.com
Relaxing of social distancing (and international travel of troops returning From Europe) led to a more deadly second wave:
Did Lack of Social Distancing in 1918 Pandemic Cause More Deaths Than WWI?
A viral meme about the "Spanish flu" pandemic gets some general points right, but the presented timeline is inaccurate.www.snopes.com
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Shhhh.. you just opened the floodgates for.. July 1st it will open for sure people.
jmp85
Well-Known Member
So New York and New Jersey can relax social distancing sooner than Florida? I'm not buying that. I'm not arguing that Florida should be moved up but it seems that, at a minimum, NY and NJ should be in the same date range as FL. The NYC metro area has almost half of all cases in the U.S.
Latest IHME COVID-19 model pushes easing of social distancing restrictions for Florida further into June
Forecasting the containment of the virus is a fluid situation, and timelines have already moved 14 days in just the last few days.
Ole' reliable, the IHME model.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...I heard there’s already a crowd of picketers forming at the TTC in the last 10 minutes...
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I'd seen that. This is a research article that lays out some recommendations on using (and not using) ventilators. Everything is changing so fast so there's obviously not going to be clinical trials yet. One thing I noticed was they recommend prone positioning at least 16 hours or more per day. Here's a write-up on it that includes what some other hospitals are doing in this area.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
None of the Models have really been incorrect...it’s The volume and trajectory that has varied higher or lower.
But that’s why they’re called “models”...not “non-fiction books”
I built a model of an F-14 when I was a kid...but I couldn’t jump into it and fly it off my roof. It was a representation.
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
Disney hasn't even posted earnings yet and already S&P is downgrading their credit rating out of pure speculation. Idiotic IMO.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
Disney Credit Rating Downgraded Over Theme Park Uncertainty Amid COVID-19
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday downgraded Walt Disney Co.'s credit rating over concerns the coronavirus crisis will slow a reopening of the studio's theme parks and film and TV production.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
That’s the financial markets in a nutshell. Always forward looking and pricing in the worst case scenario. Yet another reason Disney needs to open ASAP to get their revenues back on track.Disney hasn't even posted earnings yet and already S&P is downgrading their credit rating out of pure speculation.
Disney Credit Rating Downgraded Over Theme Park Uncertainty Amid COVID-19
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday downgraded Walt Disney Co.'s credit rating over concerns the coronavirus crisis will slow a reopening of the studio's theme parks and film and TV production.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Disney is closed so the earnings will be very low and they just opened a 5 billion line of credit. All of that justifies the downgrading.Disney hasn't even posted earnings yet and already S&P is downgrading their credit rating out of pure speculation.
Disney Credit Rating Downgraded Over Theme Park Uncertainty Amid COVID-19
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday downgraded Walt Disney Co.'s credit rating over concerns the coronavirus crisis will slow a reopening of the studio's theme parks and film and TV production.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Disney hasn't even posted earnings yet and already S&P is downgrading their credit rating out of pure speculation. Idiotic IMO.
Disney Credit Rating Downgraded Over Theme Park Uncertainty Amid COVID-19
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday downgraded Walt Disney Co.'s credit rating over concerns the coronavirus crisis will slow a reopening of the studio's theme parks and film and TV production.
Downgraded from A to A- so still in the middle tier of investment grade. They would need to drop 4 more levels before dropping out of investment grade altogether. S&P doesn’t need to see the earnings release to know there’s a potential negative outlook. Disney took on more debt at a time when their cash flows are going to be down for sure.
The earnings they will be releasing soon are for their 2nd quarter through March 31 so they will only reflect 2 weeks of the shutdowns so 85% of the earnings are not directly impacted. You won’t get much of a feel for the impact in this quarter’s release. Q3 at 6/30 and the 10K at 9/30 will show the full impact. I am curious to see if they impair any assets (especially the cruise ships) and if they update guidance for full year what that will look like. There’s no hiding the bad news in this case.
jmp85
Well-Known Member
No, they've been wrong. The IMHE was consistently outside of the 95% confidence intervals early on, although it's been slightly better as they've been incorporating new/actual data. In order to build an accurate model, you need good data. The problem is we don't have much of that right now. Their methodology has not been made public, but they are clearly including variables related to the impacts of social distancing. Do you believe that we can currently measure the impact of social distancing? Let's remember that they're also making these projections at the state level. That means, they really need a variable or a proxy variable to represent the impact of social distancing in a given state. Maybe it's the best we can currently do, but that doesn't change the fact that forecasting at the national level, much less the state level, is currently a near impossible task.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
If you take the (quite conservative) suggestion from the modelers. States can use the data and make their own decisions that are either more or less conservative.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
So you’re saying they couldn’t build the model without the data, there was no data, so how could they build the model wrong?
I don’t know...I get your points but I think it’s semantics...
Raw counts were way high...but the curves/trajectories have been still close to dead on. That’s what has a practical effect on all of us...does it not?
Incomudro
Well-Known Member
But it looked like an F-14, and not a Cessna.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
What on earth?!?
The financial markets are ALWAYS exaggerating to make more money out of air...usually its on the high side.
The unemployment numbers have been “predicted” 30% low each of the last 5 weeks...intentionally.
Nobody downplays bad news more than the investors.
Yes...sometimes on the low side too...when they can make money from dumps.
None of this is mysterious.
Not exactly advanced calculus to guess that a huge business that is probably 2/3 frozen isn’t doing too well, is it?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It was real tiny though and the missiles wouldn’t fire ...
...wait! Are you saying I could have flown a Cessna off my roof?!?
Damn.
Are you saying I could have flown a Cessna off my roof?!?
You would've made it all the way to the scene of the crash.
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