Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[George]

Sweden’s total population is less than Ohio’s, a bit greater than North Carolina’s or Georgia’s. First case, late. Low population density even if you account for the barrenness of the north. Lots who work from home and live alone. And for all that, if you sort by deaths per million on worldometer, they are 10th. Not good. Also, two of the countries worse off than them are San Marino and Andorra which don’t have much capita for a per capita comparison.

Not saying they took the wrong approach, but it isn’t a slam dunk.

 

[Kevin_W]

That article wasn't about how the Swedes kept everything open and continued as normal. It was more about how the majority of the nation complied with strong recommendations to socially distance without having to be forced to do so by law. They, more or less, had a voluntary lockdown.

Many U.S. states tried at first to encourage social distancing. And when that didn't work, limited groups to 500 people. And when that didn't work, to 200 people. And when that didn't work, 50. Then 20, 10, 2. Then when that didn't work, lock down laws.

And as much as the Swedes patted themselves on the back for not resorting to legal mandates, they're flogging themselves for not putting in stringent measures that would have protected the elderly in nursing homes, where most of their deaths are from.

And as the article mentioned, Sweden has a high amount of people who live alone. So, very different from the situation in the hot spots of the world like Italy, China, and NYC. But at the same time, their CV figures are worse than the other Scandinavian countries that had a lock down. That's why you compare apples to apples and not to oranges.

All this from the article you quoted, which is a very different story from the one you characterized it as.

And finally, did you just now join a WDW fan forum just so you can argue against CV restrictions? Because, that's pretty much what your posting history shows.

I disagree with you a bit on this, MisterPenguin. Much of the news from Sweden has been that while people are encouraged to social distance, people are still out and about, frequenting restaurants, etc.

I'd also disagree about the US states changing multiple times when their "recommendations" didn't work. At least in my state, March 12th it was announced that schools would close on March 16. On March 15, all bars and restaurants were closed. On March 16, all gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, and on March 22 the stay-at-home order was issued.

We went from no restrictions to 50 people pretty much immediately and then to full stay-at-home in 6 days. At no time did it seem like a "people aren't complying, we need to strengthen the orders" response. It was just a swift "this is what we think we need to do".

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The economies of the world are in the toilet... and unfortunately it didn't matter if you were smart and embraced the herd immunity train or went into the lockdown theater, enough of the world embraced lockdown which killed the economy for everyone.

Um...what’s your point?

So voluntary shutdown works some...and mandatory shutdown works more...

So you’re advocating mandatory restart? Or
Voluntary ones?

I’m confuzed?

 

[Lilofan]

While I am totally rooting for Sweden they have quite a few differences that help control the spread. A lot of them live alone and multigenerational homes are not nearly so prevalent as they are here.

I don't know about Sweden but that's a growing trend of multigenrational neighborhood homes that I see in my area. Underemployed , unmarried moving back in with the family, grandparents living in same household, mother and father , several cars parked in the driveway and on street. Childcare provided by family.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Typical of a physician in denial. Looking for a peer reviewed study and ignoring the building burning down around him, or in this case the growing number of patients hooked up to ventilators that end up dead.

Now if you think sticking a nasal canula around someone's head so they can breath in O2 is anywhere close to the amount of effort and work that is required to hook someone up to a ventilator then I question whether you really are a doctor.

You just firmly put yourself in “the basket”, Bud.

Credibility is a good thing.

 

[DisneyCane]

Typical of a physician in denial. Looking for a peer reviewed study and ignoring the building burning down around him, or in this case the growing number of patients hooked up to ventilators that end up dead.

Now if you think sticking a nasal canula around someone's head so they can breath in O2 is anywhere close to the amount of effort and work that is required to hook someone up to a ventilator then I question whether you really are a doctor.

What do you think the survival rate normally is when somebody needs to be put on a ventilator as interventional treatment, especially when said patient is elderly?

From reading Rimmit's posts, I can assure you that he/she is a doctor and is providing accurate information.

You just firmly put yourself in “the basket”, Bud.

Credibility is a good thing.

Two things we can agree upon in one day!

 

[ItRhymes]

I think many people are co-mingling two vastly different methods of controlling this virus that went into effect essentially at the same time.

Shelter In Place - Stay home for everything but the essentials. Most people I know stayed home and some I know haven't been out in public for well over 3-4 weeks. This went into effect at the same time social distancing rules did.

Social Distancing - Stay 6 feet apart when out in public, etc. (which most people weren't...because they were sheltered in place).

I think it makes much more sense that the shelter in place orders are the cause for the drop in reported cases over time. Instead, people who believe that a sneeze is a sneeze no matter who it comes from, that wind speed has no effect on the "6 feet rule", etc. are attributing the success of Stay At Home orders to social distancing.

 

[havoc315]

@thomass98 already posted something similar, but here are Sweden's cases and deaths per day for the past week:
View attachment 465438

"Flattening the curve" has become such a mantra than I'm convinced over half the people saying it have no idea what it means. But that picture is quite the flat curve.

Ahh.. No. You are only looking at 5 days -- You need to look at rolling average over a much longer period.

Just TODAY -- Sweden reported 172 new deaths and 682 cases.
Let's not look at cases -- they aren't doing enough testing to know.

But let's look at deaths:
April 16-22: 734 deaths
Prior week: April 9-15: 516
Prior week: April 2-8: 448
Prior week: March 26-April 1: 165

So: 165 ---> 448 ---> 516 ----> 734

That is NOT flat.

The IHME chart of deaths in Sweden, up to current:

With the hills and valleys, you see Sweden doesn't *report* deaths consistently -- They don't count and report much on weekends, it seems. But we see very clearly, that the numbers are STILL rising.

NOT flat. Not at all.

 

[ToTBellHop]

FYI: when the parks in FL reopen this summer, the growing consensus is that masks will be available to cast but not required for guests. Health screenings will suffice for guests. Don’t expect a blood test.

They’ll need a lot more tape than they use in a typical day and for many more things than just parades!

 

[HongKongFooy]

infecting people. Thanks! LYLAG KIT OVER SUMMER!!! <3 State of Georgia

What language is that?
Looks like one part English to two part millennial nonsensical jargon.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Outdoor q’s wherever possible?

Like the safari, carousel, teacups, Triceratops spin, Jungle Cruise, to name a few WDW attractions I have visited in summer.

At Universal: Flight of Hippogriff, Twirl 'n' hurl, One Fish/Two Fish, much of Kong, Accelatron, to name a few. outdoor queues I have used in summer.
Admittedly, US doesn't have as many as WDW. Though many attractions, like ET, Gringotts, and Minions have queues that are part outdoors/part indoors.

It would also be possible to run those attractions with one less preshow or maybe keep the doors open.

I've been on a number of attractions where sometimes I have been allowed to skip one of the preshows. RNRC and DNOSAUR come to mind.

 

[havoc315]

Charts from worldometers.info. Notations added by me. The data certainly doesn't scream "overwhelmingly effective."
View attachment 465439

Seems overwhelmingly effective to me.

You need to consider the incubation period of Covid.

Thus, if you start social distancing on Day 0, you would not expect to see any effect to BEGIN until 14 days later.

So notice in the charts -- at 14 days, the peak was reached and the numbers started to drop. Without social distancing, the numbers would continue to INCREASE.

It comes down to the reproduction ratio -- Known at R0. Without social distancing, R0 of coronavirus is over 2.0. -- Imaging that being the equivalent of putting the foot on the gas. Your foot is on the gas AND you are going downhill.

With successful social distancing, you bring down the R0. At R0 = 1, you are coasting, tapping the gas just enough to maintain speed.

At R0 of 0, you are slamming on the brakes. We can never get to a R0 of 0.
Between R0 of 0 and 1, your foot is gently on the brake, gently slowing down.

So:
Day 0: Foot on the gas and going down hill. Numbers are escalating quickly. You start the lock down -- that's a tap on the brake.
But you're still going downhill for another 2 weeks... so the numbers keep increasing.
Day 14 -- you're no longer doing steeply downhill. Your foot is still lightly on the brake. You can start slowing down.
You may coast for a long time yet, but you are gradually slowing down.

So yes, those charts prove conclusively that lockdowns were VERY effective.

 

[Roy G. Dis]

Seems overwhelmingly effective to me.

You need to consider the incubation period of Covid.

Thus, if you start social distancing on Day 0, you would not expect to see any effect to BEGIN until 14 days later.

So notice in the charts -- at 14 days, the peak was reached and the numbers started to drop. Without social distancing, the numbers would continue to INCREASE.

It comes down to the reproduction ratio -- Known at R0. Without social distancing, R0 of coronavirus is over 2.0. -- Imaging that being the equivalent of putting the foot on the gas. Your foot is on the gas AND you are going downhill.

With successful social distancing, you bring down the R0. At R0 = 1, you are coasting, tapping the gas just enough to maintain speed.

At R0 of 0, you are slamming on the brakes. We can never get to a R0 of 0.
Between R0 of 0 and 1, your foot is gently on the brake, gently slowing down.

So:
Day 0: Foot on the gas and going down hill. Numbers are escalating quickly. You start the lock down -- that's a tap on the brake.
But you're still going downhill for another 2 weeks... so the numbers keep increasing.
Day 14 -- you're no longer doing steeply downhill. Your foot is still lightly on the brake. You can start slowing down.
You may coast for a long time yet, but you are gradually slowing down.

So yes, those charts prove conclusively that lockdowns were VERY effective.

How could anybody look at these graphs, make notations that clearly point out the effect of lockdowns, and then conclude anything but "effective"?

 

[Kevin_W]

Sweden’s total population is less than Ohio’s, a bit greater than North Carolina’s or Georgia’s. First case, late. Low population density even if you account for the barrenness of the north. Lots who work from home and live alone. And for all that, if you sort by deaths per million on worldometer, they are 10th. Not good. Also, two of the countries worse off than them are San Marino and Andorra which don’t have much capita for a per capita comparison.

Not saying they took the wrong approach, but it isn’t a slam dunk.

I agree it's not a slam dunk either way. But for interest here is a comparison of confirmed cases per day for Ohio vs. Sweden (aligned for when both states hit ~200 cases). They aren't terribly dissimilar, though Ohio's recent data is skewed by a couple huge outbreaks in the prison system. Without those, Ohio would be trending lower.

I can't speak to the comparative demographics, but it's not like Ohio is a haven for multi-generational families in close quarters.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

If you're going to cancel a trip this summer due to Covid-19, expect at least a month to get your money back. Just a heads up for people. Disney tends to be much less. I think you see how its related no?

No, not related, because the topic wasn't refunds.


Maybe you should re-read your own posts.

 

[wishiwere@wdw]

Universal chief expects significant operational changes when the Orlando parks reopen

The Walt Disney Company News

We are beginning to hear some comments from leaders in the Florida Governor's Task Force to reopen the state.

www.wdwmagic.com

For what it’s worth, I believe that was specifically from the Orange County task force call which took place this morning. I do not believe Josh is a part of this task force as he is on the overall Florida task force team.

Edit: just played the link and it appears based on the presentation that Thomas Mazloum was present for Walt Disney World Resort.

For those that are incredibly bored, here is a link to the call lol.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

How long you suppose those Timon and Pumbaa safety videos are gonna get? My kids love those.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

How long you suppose those Timon and Pumbaa safety videos are gonna get? My kids love those.

Mine too. If they put them on Disney+, they'd both watch them for hours a day.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Mine too. If they put them on Disney+, they'd both watch them for hours a day.

My kids "YT" them......and do. Especially now

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All outdoor queues in the Florida summer...that’s a great plan