Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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JohnD

JohnD

Well-Known Member
wdwmagic said:
Rather bleak outlook from the UK government today
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Social restrictions 'to remain for rest of year'

It is "unrealistic" to expect normal life to return soon, says the government's chief medical adviser.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

"The UK will have to live with some disruptive social measures for at least the rest of the year, the government's chief medical adviser has said.

Prof Chris Whitty said it was "wholly unrealistic" to expect life would suddenly return to normal soon.

He said "in the long run" the ideal way out would be via a "highly effective vaccine" or drugs to treat the disease.

But he warned that the chance of having those within the next calendar year was "incredibly small".

"This disease is not going to be eradicated, it is not going to disappear," he said, at the government's daily coronavirus briefing.

"So we have to accept that we are working with a disease that we are going to be with globally... for the foreseeable future.""
Click to expand...

"This disease is not going to be eradicated, it is not going to disappear,"
Click to expand...

Neither will flu -- internationally. But the National Health Service (NHS) is a more centralized system than the US.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Seems overwhelmingly effective to me.

You need to consider the incubation period of Covid.

Thus, if you start social distancing on Day 0, you would not expect to see any effect to BEGIN until 14 days later.

So notice in the charts -- at 14 days, the peak was reached and the numbers started to drop. Without social distancing, the numbers would continue to INCREASE.

It comes down to the reproduction ratio -- Known at R0. Without social distancing, R0 of coronavirus is over 2.0. -- Imaging that being the equivalent of putting the foot on the gas. Your foot is on the gas AND you are going downhill.

With successful social distancing, you bring down the R0. At R0 = 1, you are coasting, tapping the gas just enough to maintain speed.

At R0 of 0, you are slamming on the brakes. We can never get to a R0 of 0.
Between R0 of 0 and 1, your foot is gently on the brake, gently slowing down.

So:
Day 0: Foot on the gas and going down hill. Numbers are escalating quickly. You start the lock down -- that's a tap on the brake.
But you're still going downhill for another 2 weeks... so the numbers keep increasing.
Day 14 -- you're no longer doing steeply downhill. Your foot is still lightly on the brake. You can start slowing down.
You may coast for a long time yet, but you are gradually slowing down.

So yes, those charts prove conclusively that lockdowns were VERY effective.
Click to expand...

The incubation period is not 14 days. from the WHO, "most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days."

In the first few days of the lockdown (sometimes up to 14) the infections seen will have been from before the lockdown. Once you pass the incubation period, there should be a significant drop since people aren't exposed to each other. In Italy and Spain the "lockdown" is much closer to a Wuhan style lockdown than what we are doing in the US. South Korea basically went through the whole heart of the curve in 2 weeks. This would be consistent with the effect of the incubation period on the curve. What is seen in Italy and Spain is not consistent with what I would expect from extreme social distancing if it was "VERY effective."
 
MickeyLuv'r

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
Joel said:
Can someone explain to me what the difference is between this thread and the one in the politics board at this point, besides this one being longer, more political (thinly veiled at best), and laced with regional animosity?
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It might help consider, why or how does WDW attract the people who are posting here?

I mean Disney is: The Happiest Place on Earth, The Most Magical Place on Earth. The Happiest Celebration on Earth, and the place Where Dreams Come True.

I've long wondered if Disney forum members are actually fans of Disney at all, when many they have so thoroughly managed to miss like every major theme of WDW. How can anyone possibly miss the message of Illuminations, "We’re gathered here tonight, around the fire — as people of all lands have gathered for thousands and thousands of years before us — to share the light, and to share a story. An amazing story as old as time itself, but still being written. And though each of us has our own individual stories to tell, a true adventure emerges when we bring them all together as one. "

I could easily keep quoting the similar messages from all over WDW, like maybe CoP:
Be it a time of joy or strife.
There's so much to cheer for, be glad you're here.
For it's the best time of your life.
Now is the time.
Now is the best time.
Now is the best time of your life.

Jiminy Cricket, "Just remember, always let your conscience be your guide."

Thumper's, "If you can't say something nice, don't say nothing at all."

Or Baloo:
Now when you pick a pawpaw
Or a prickly pear
And you prick a raw paw
Well next time beware
Don't pick the prickly pear by the paw
When you pick a pear
Try to use the claw
But you don't need to use the claw
When you pick a pear of the big pawpaw
Have I given you a clue?
 
"El Gran Magnifico"

"El Gran Magnifico"

Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
MickeyLuv'r said:
It might help consider, why or how does WDW attract the people who are posting here?

I mean Disney is: The Happiest Place on Earth, The Most Magical Place on Earth. The Happiest Celebration on Earth, and the place Where Dreams Come True.

I've long wondered if Disney forum members are actually fans of Disney at all, when many they have so thoroughly managed to miss like every major theme of WDW. How can anyone possibly miss the message of Illuminations, "We’re gathered here tonight, around the fire — as people of all lands have gathered for thousands and thousands of years before us — to share the light, and to share a story. An amazing story as old as time itself, but still being written. And though each of us has our own individual stories to tell, a true adventure emerges when we bring them all together as one. "

I could easily keep quoting the similar messages from all over WDW, like maybe CoP:
Be it a time of joy or strife.
There's so much to cheer for, be glad you're here.
For it's the best time of your life.
Now is the time.
Now is the best time.
Now is the best time of your life.

Jiminy Cricket, "Just remember, always let your conscience be your guide."

Thumper's, "If you can't say something nice, don't say nothing at all."

Or Baloo:
Now when you pick a pawpaw
Or a prickly pear
And you prick a raw paw
Well next time beware
Don't pick the prickly pear by the paw
When you pick a pear
Try to use the claw
But you don't need to use the claw
When you pick a pear of the big pawpaw
Have I given you a clue?
Click to expand...

"Momma don't whup Little Buford...........I think you should shoot him instead" - Zeke
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
The incubation period is not 14 days. from the WHO, "most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days."

In the first few days of the lockdown (sometimes up to 14) the infections seen will have been from before the lockdown. Once you pass the incubation period, there should be a significant drop since people aren't exposed to each other. In Italy and Spain the "lockdown" is much closer to a Wuhan style lockdown than what we are doing in the US. South Korea basically went through the whole heart of the curve in 2 weeks. This would be consistent with the effect of the incubation period on the curve. What is seen in Italy and Spain is not consistent with what I would expect from extreme social distancing if it was "VERY effective."
Click to expand...

You’re demonstrating a very poor understanding of the parameters at play.
For the most part, people aren’t being tested the day they have their first symptoms. And even once you have a test, it can be days to get the results.

A 1-3 week delay from transmission until positive test is to be expected once you look at all of those factors, including incubation.

All the data points to the same thing — deceleration of transmission, showing up in testing about 2 weeks after lock down. Very clearly very effective.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
You’re demonstrating a very poor understanding of the parameters at play.
For the most part, people aren’t being tested the day they have their first symptoms. And even once you have a test, it can be days to get the results.

A 1-3 week delay from transmission until positive test is to be expected once you look at all of those factors, including incubation.

All the data points to the same thing — deceleration of transmission, showing up in testing about 2 weeks after lock down. Very clearly very effective.
Click to expand...

We will have to agree to disagree. I understand those factors but after almost 6 weeks I would expect Italy to have a curve shaped like South Korea by now. The same factors existed in South Korea.

The daily death curves in Italy and Spain show the same basic shape as the case curves and the death curves are not effected by the testing delay.
 
E

easyrowrdw

Well-Known Member
On the subject of ventilators, I thought this was an informative article. One tidbit I found interesting is that some of the physicians quoted in the article think that ventilation can be a problem for Covid patients, regardless of how sick they are. There doesn't seem to be a consensus either way. Regardless, I think it's interesting and impressive to see how medical professionals are adapting and learning on the fly.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
We will have to agree to disagree. I understand those factors but after almost 6 weeks I would expect Italy to have a curve shaped like South Korea by now. The same factors existed in South Korea.

The daily death curves in Italy and Spain show the same basic shape as the case curves and the death curves are not effected by the testing delay.
Click to expand...

the death curves are the natural course of disease — most deadly about 3 weeks after transmission. This isn’t a disease you instantly drop dead from.

S. Korea is in a different situation — they did massive testing and contact tracing from the start. So they never had the acceleration.

Only 2 things can cause deceleration:
Herd immunity — which no large country is close to. Or successful mitigation measures.

Thus, the fact that Italy and Spain are decelerating at all, proves that the mitigation efforts are working.

Now... if you mitigate enough to get to R0 of 0.95 — you will see only very slow deceleration. If you mitigate enough to get to 0.5, you’ll decelerate much faster and more dramatically.

South Korea never had the same acceleration.
 
Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
wdwmagic said:
Rather bleak outlook from the UK government today
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Social restrictions 'to remain for rest of year'

It is "unrealistic" to expect normal life to return soon, says the government's chief medical adviser.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

"The UK will have to live with some disruptive social measures for at least the rest of the year, the government's chief medical adviser has said.

Prof Chris Whitty said it was "wholly unrealistic" to expect life would suddenly return to normal soon.

He said "in the long run" the ideal way out would be via a "highly effective vaccine" or drugs to treat the disease.

But he warned that the chance of having those within the next calendar year was "incredibly small".

"This disease is not going to be eradicated, it is not going to disappear," he said, at the government's daily coronavirus briefing.

"So we have to accept that we are working with a disease that we are going to be with globally... for the foreseeable future.""
Click to expand...

Yep. Mentioned it a few times here. Nothing is going to be normal this year. Even if things open it will be a different way of living.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Thus, the fact that Italy and Spain are decelerating at all, proves that the mitigation efforts are working.
Click to expand...

Does it? If all outbreaks follow the same kind of curve doesn't that imply that the infection rate will decelerate naturally?

On the death curves, I understand that the deaths lag infections by around 3 weeks. That was my point. The fact that they have the same shape as the infection curves but offset indicates that the infection curves are somewhat accurate, despite the factors that effect the case curves.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Does it? If all outbreaks follow the same kind of curve doesn't that imply that the infection rate will decelerate naturally?

On the death curves, I understand that the deaths lag infections by around 3 weeks. That was my point. The fact that they have the same shape as the infection curves but offset indicates that the infection curves are somewhat accurate, despite the factors that effect the case curves.
Click to expand...

epidemiology 101. The R0 won’t just decelerate on its own.
Something causes it to decrease:
1. removal — enough people obtain immunity, they get removed from the pool, less people to infect. But for this to work in its own, you’d have to be getting 50%+ of the population infected first.
2. environmental factors slowing virus spread. Example, weather changes. So in some southern states, we might be seeing some of this.
3. Behavioral changes — social distancing, lock downs, extra hand washing.
 
TrainsOfDisney

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
lilypgirl said:
No doubt! I read the article and I doubt the US will be going that way. A lockdown until fall is not likely and would never fly here nor should it especially if the percentage of deaths is really at .1-.3 .
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see what happens as Georgia and other states slowly reopen. Ideally we will have an enjoyable non-locked-down summer. Even if theme parks and sporting events, concerts, etc. can’t come back, I’m all for national parks and “distanced” attractions being available.
 
L

lilypgirl

Well-Known Member
TrainChasers said:
It will be interesting to see what happens as Georgia and other states slowly reopen. Ideally we will have an enjoyable non-locked-down summer. Even if theme parks and sporting events, concerts, etc. can’t come back, I’m all for national parks and “distanced” attractions being available.
Click to expand...
I agree. I just want college in the fall to be on campus for my soon to be freshmen.
 
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