Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Rimmit]

Given there are no proven treatments for the actual virus and you are pretty much left to the ability of your body to fight it, coupled with the fact that ventilators increase your chance of dying and you are better off with just an O2 line to your nose which ever room is going to have... Not much else to be factored in. ICU patients are the a rarity and pretty much a toss up as to whether they live or die... yet even with them you really aren't doing much labor intensive work on them you hook them up and pretty much hope for the best.

I wonder if the doctors and nurses would be half as stressed if they never had to go through with all the intubations for ventilator and had known from the start that all they needed was to hand a nasal O2 line on patients.

Aa an ICU physician I would like to clarify some things from this post.

1.) I am not aware of any randomized control trials between noninvasive(nasal canula/cpap vs invasive therapies). If there is a peer reviewed article/abstract I would love to see it. If you hit the point where you need a ventilator, you have pretty much self selected yourself to be in a high fatality category.

2.)To say that an ICU patient is not labor intensive is doing a complete disservice to the physicians, nurses and respiratory therapists that take care of them. I dare you to say that to any nurse, RT, or physician. While they may not be intubated an ICU patient still requires IVFs, continuous monitoring of their vitals, Lab draws, along with if they are conscious, all the requests that they are making (bathroom, hungry, pain, etc.) In all honesty, an intubated patient tends to be easier to manage because they aren’t conscious and continually making requests.

3.) If they Are truly about to die on a nasal canula, and they aren’t intubated there is still a high likelihood they are having other Multi System Organ Failure such as kidney failure, liver failure, heart failure, etc. While there is no treatment for Covid, There are innumerable labor intensive therapies due to the complications of dying on a nasal canula such as dialysis just to name one.

4.) Physicians like control. The ventilator is the definition of that. When a patient is on a vent, we can control their respiratory rate, volume of breath, Pressure of the breath, how long they take in the breath, percentage of oxygen they are receiving. It is total control. Whether the lung responds is patient dependent but it at least gives us that ability. I have much less stress when a patient is critical and intubated than on cpap because I know I have a stable airway and control of the situation at least as much as you can have in that situation. So no, I would not be half as stressed. I would be more stressed that I am making the wrong choice leaving them extubated.

In short, to say an ICU patient on a nasal canula is not labor intensive is just wrong, and you are doing a disservice to all the people on the front line making it sound like it’s a cake walk having someone just on a nasal canula.

It would be a cake walk if we just left them there to die, but that’s not how it works. Even on a nasal canula.

 

[DCBaker]

Oh I gotcha...I’m curios too?

Anyone actually know of there are any?

They did that silly 3 state optional quarantine announcement 3 weeks ago...but nothing came of it as far as I know?

There is one more - the Florida Keys are still closed to tourists, with check points up to only allow residents and people who work there in.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/florida-keys/article242134441.html

 

[havoc315]

We have no idea how many new Coronavirus cases we have per day.

Correct, which is why we need MORE testing. But we know we have a MINIMUM of 20,000+ new cases per day.

 

[Touchdown]

I would also like to state that it is true there is no current approved treatment for COVID-19, there are however treatments for:

-Acute Hypoxic Respiratory Failure
-Acute Kidney Failure
-Pulmonary Embolus
-Deep Vein Thrombosis
-Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
-Acute Myocardial Infraction
-Stroke
-Reactive Airway Disease
-Post Viral Bacterial Pneumonia

All of which are known complications for COVID-19. People admitted to the hospital “for Covid” are admitted because they also have some of these complications and require treatment.

 

[KeithVH]

Correct, which is why we need MORE testing. But we know we have a MINIMUM of 20,000+ new cases per day.

Agreed. And since, in the US as a whole, testing has only reached ~1.2-1.3% of total population, all the numbers everybody is throwing up around here are nothing but wild speculation. Some states total population testing is ~0.7%. Shoot, that's not even worth calling rounding error.

I've come nowhere near to reading all posts in this thread but everyone seems to have their favorite number AND all the answers based on extremely flawed thinking. Jeez, if I performed in my analytics job the same way, I'd never get anything right.

 

[peter11435]

Which point is that making? Are you saying you think Josh is pretty high up the ladder then?

It’s a good thing if he is, I think Josh is great, I thought George was as well.

Meaning he is pretty high up the ladder. Currently he reports directly to the CEO.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don’t think any travel is prohibited in the USA? As far as I know I’m totally free to fly to any city I want to. It’s just not recommended.

It’s all hard to understand. So in PA where I live there’s a firm ban on non-essential travel. You can go out to get essential supplies, food, medication or to go to work if you have an essential job. They also include going out for exercise as essential. You can also be on the roads if you are from somewhere else and leaving or from PA and returning to your home. So if non-essential travel is banned locally how do I get to the airport to fly? The only thing I can figure is the airport is open for people who are either returning home or have essential jobs and need to travel. Essential jobs that might need to fly include a reporter or someone in federal law enforcement or government or maybe the military if going for deployment.

I would assume most of these restrictions will be long behind us before WDW would open.

 

[thomas998]

Sweden hasn't flattened it's curve and is going to get much much worse.. They also haven't tested as much, so they are missing a lot of cases. But their case numbers are still growing tremendously, where the US is flattening.

But let's put it in perspective:
Sweden already had 192 deaths per million of their population. Extrapolated to the US: That would be the equivalent of already having 63,000 --- And their death rate continues to INCREASE.
Where the US is projected by the IHME mode as 66,000 deaths by August...
The same model projects Sweden with 9,000 deaths: Extrapolate for population, that would be equivalent to 300,000 deaths in the US...

So how's Sweden's method looking now? 300,000 deaths by August... and still growing?

Sweden will change their public policy shortly, their numbers are starting to sky rocket out of control.

Look at the following two charts of deaths from the virus. Do you see anything to make you think Sweden is seeing a much more dramatic increase in the deaths?

If you overlay them the slopes of the lines are nearly the same although Sweden had some days where the had short plateaus that we haven't seen in the US yet. You also have to remember Europe got hit by the virus a little bit sooner than the US so you would expect them to have more deaths per million to begin with.

You also need to factor in the two stains of the virus, Europe has apparently been hit with a more aggressive strain that results in a much higher viral load than part of the US. While New York is thought to be suffering the same virus as Europe the Western part of the country is thought to have the less aggressive form. Which may explain why New York is experiencing over 1000 deaths per million people while California is at 36... So maybe you should compare your 192 number to the ones for New York which is 1,028 or New Jersey which is 570... Those numbers don't look quite as nice compared to Sweden's 192 now do they?

 

[ItRhymes]

Can you please please please show me one study.. any study that can back up this claim?

Sure:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/you-may-be-able-spread-coronavirus-just-breathing-new-report-finds - Seems to determine that the only effective way to control it is if everyone wears a mask since this would indicate simply breathing would deposit Corona on any surfaces where it can live for a long period of time and would be picked up by anyone touching that surface later.

https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-spreads-grocery-stores.html - Simulation showing virus spreading well beyond 6 feet.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/12/the-coronavirus-can-travel-at-least-13-feet-new-study-shows/- Study shows it spreading at least 13 feet, etc.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Meaning he is pretty high up the ladder. Currently he reports directly to the CEO.

Which ceo?

Didn’t the old one reappoint himself as “shadow master”?

Wall Street seems to think so

 

[MisterPenguin]

Keeping restaurants, schools open during COVID-19 pandemic working for Sweden

Sweden's top epidemiologist says the country is hitting a plateau for new cases

nationalpost.com

I really like that Sweden has taken a completely different tact than so may other states. I am really hoping that their measure work at least as well as ours in Canada. It really scares me the idea that every time a bad illness comes around our reaction will be this total shutdown. There has to be a better way that protects our econonmically vulnerable.

That article wasn't about how the Swedes kept everything open and continued as normal. It was more about how the majority of the nation complied with strong recommendations to socially distance without having to be forced to do so by law. They, more or less, had a voluntary lockdown.

Many U.S. states tried at first to encourage social distancing. And when that didn't work, limited groups to 500 people. And when that didn't work, to 200 people. And when that didn't work, 50. Then 20, 10, 2. Then when that didn't work, lock down laws.

And as much as the Swedes patted themselves on the back for not resorting to legal mandates, they're flogging themselves for not putting in stringent measures that would have protected the elderly in nursing homes, where most of their deaths are from.

And as the article mentioned, Sweden has a high amount of people who live alone. So, very different from the situation in the hot spots of the world like Italy, China, and NYC. But at the same time, their CV figures are worse than the other Scandinavian countries that had a lock down. That's why you compare apples to apples and not to oranges.

All this from the article you quoted, which is a very different story from the one you characterized it as.

And finally, did you just now join a WDW fan forum just so you can argue against CV restrictions? Because, that's pretty much what your posting history shows.

 

[thomas998]

The majority of people in Sweden engaged in social distancing. The difference was the government "asked, not ordered." They were on the same shutdown train as the rest of the world, they just boarded from a different station. I have yet to see any Swedish research that they are significantly closer to herd immunity than the rest of the world, despite the announcement of the Health Minister. There was a study, which was withdrawn today "due to the discovery of an error." Another study by a university has also withdrawn their results of an antibody study in blood donations. And their economy is in the toilet too.

Sweden Health Agency Withdraws Controversial Coronavirus Report

The Swedish Public Health Agency made international headlines yesterday by estimating that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1.

www.forbes.com

The economies of the world are in the toilet... and unfortunately it didn't matter if you were smart and embraced the herd immunity train or went into the lockdown theater, enough of the world embraced lockdown which killed the economy for everyone.

 

[Patcheslee]

I don’t think any travel is prohibited in the USA? As far as I know I’m totally free to fly to any city I want to. It’s just not recommended.

Indiana is sorta prohibiting non-essential travel. Pretty much cops aren't pulling people over just for being on the road, but if you get pulled over for a traffic violation,happen to be breaking laws, they can and are giving citations or additional charges if the travel wasn't essential.

 

[Kevin_W]

Sweden hasn't flattened it's curve and is going to get much much worse.. They also haven't tested as much, so they are missing a lot of cases. But their case numbers are still growing tremendously, where the US is flattening.

But let's put it in perspective:
Sweden already had 192 deaths per million of their population. Extrapolated to the US: That would be the equivalent of already having 63,000 --- And their death rate continues to INCREASE.
Where the US is projected by the IHME mode as 66,000 deaths by August...
The same model projects Sweden with 9,000 deaths: Extrapolate for population, that would be equivalent to 300,000 deaths in the US...

So how's Sweden's method looking now? 300,000 deaths by August... and still growing?

Sweden will change their public policy shortly, their numbers are starting to sky rocket out of control.

@thomass98 already posted something similar, but here are Sweden's cases and deaths per day for the past week:

"Flattening the curve" has become such a mantra than I'm convinced over half the people saying it have no idea what it means. But that picture is quite the flat curve.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I love me some Universal, but it takes up to 4 to 6 weeks to get a refund for a vacation package. I can't believe an organization of that size takes so long. Disney typically takes 3 to 5 days.

What?
How is that remotely related? (to the thread topic? what I posted? What you were talking about when I quoted you? )

Seems almost like a bot post or something to me.

 

[DisneyCane]

My personal opinion, based on some new data and research coming out, on social distancing is that it is only minimally effective.

Where’s that then?

Charts from worldometers.info. Notations added by me. The data certainly doesn't scream "overwhelmingly effective."

 

[Horizons '83]

What?
How is that remotely related?

Seems almost like a bot post or something to me.

If you're going to cancel a trip this summer due to Covid-19, expect at least a month to get your money back. Just a heads up for people. Disney tends to be much less. I think you see how its related no?

 

[thomas998]

I'm not sure what has led you to believe that medical intervention for COVID patients has no effect, but I do know many healthcare professionals who are risking their lives because they disagree with you.

That there is no cure doesn't mean there are no treatments. It's not just a roll of the dice, or "hook them up and pretty much hope for the best." COVID patients need treatment for symptoms like fever, pain, blood pressure, blood clots, and any other health issues that become more dangerous when fighting the disease.

The fact that a high percentage of people put on ventilators die (correlation) does not mean that being put on a ventilator kills patients (causation) or that it has no effect whatsoever.

Hospitals are not all equally equipped to handle COVID cases. Many hospitals do not have negative pressure rooms/systems, advanced imaging (CT/MRI), or the engineers/technicians to operate these.

The fact that you continue to oversimplify complex issues and state opinions and poorly-informed conclusions as fact shows that you don't really know what you're talking about.

The fact that some of the patients in Italy that were turned away from the hospitals because they were too old and yet survived give evidence that ventilators aren' t the magic bullets that they were claimed to be at the start.

Now look at how a patient that is hooked up to a ventilator existed, in a sedated state bed fast and prone to blood clots and other problems related to being in that coma like state. Sorry you may think this is the answer to the problem I see it as a blunder that is killing people that would have probably had a better chance with and O2 line and nothing else.

In the end with no vaccine everyone will get it, and its a roll of the dice as to whether you live or die... You may not like that thought and many people don't so they hang on to the fairytales that if we slowroll the world a little longer everything will be okay. That isn't what is going to happen, we've just destroyed the economies of the world for nothing... even if we did nothing and it caused 5 percent of the people to die instead of .5% the world would be better off in the long-term because the economies wouldn't have been nuked.

 

[Longshore_noah]

Just look at Sweden which took the let it happen and get it over with vs the US which as embraced financial ruin.. The infected in Sweden is 1,500 per million people while the US is 2,500 per million people... Doesn't look like jumping on the shutdown train really help that much now does it?

While I am totally rooting for Sweden they have quite a few differences that help control the spread. A lot of them live alone and multigenerational homes are not nearly so prevalent as they are here.

 

[Longshore_noah]

No, they can't. Florida is part of interstate commerce pacts that prohibit that type of discrimination. You're right as the the US Civil Rights Act (which doesn't cover sexual orientation). But there other laws that would prohibit this type of discrimination.

This person has watched more than enough law and order I am willing to declare them an expert.