Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

However, I am curious as to your response to the first part of my reply.

First, upon returning it may be easy for someone to knowingly stay away from a high risk person, if they know they are a high risk person. What if you work with someone high risk, but don’t know they are high risk? What about the health care worker who works with any number of high risk individuals on a daily basis? Should they not be allowed to visit? Or if they do, be willing to skip work for 14 days upon return? If Disney World is open, I’m going to assume that many of the other current restrictions are lifted, which likely means the average person is interacting with many more people than they do today, 6 feet or not. You’re asking people to be a lot more transparent about their whereabouts and health in this scenario.

To start with, you need to read the part of my post before the part you quoted where I said, "My sense is that if you eliminated the densely packed, long duration queues by using some kind of virtual queue system (either all FP+ or some kind of boarding group system that worked like the old FP system for standby), suspended parades and fireworks, encouraged hand washing/hand sanitizer and put into place enhanced sanitizing of surfaces, there would be a relatively small amount of virus spread at WDW."

The premise I am starting with is that there are measures taken at WDW to reduce the likelihood of spread to start with. I am also assuming that there will still be distancing or protection measures in place at businesses and work places at home. This, of course, includes health care facilities where providers should be wearing masks in general and certainly if they have just returned from WDW.

What I meant, and was admittedly a little unclear about, by avoiding high risk people upon return was people that live in your household or family members/friends that you visit without taking precautions.

Thats not a surprise. Older people have lower immune systems and less ability to fight infection, also more likely to have pre-existing conditions that mean they are more likely to die. Basically if someone over 70 gets it, they are quite likely to die from it.

Specifically related to nursing homes and how the conditions in them are much more conducive to spread than other places, according to the Florida Health Care Association, there are approximately 71,000 residents of nursing homes statewide. That means that 0.33% of the population accounts for 8% of the cases and 25% of the deaths.

That hasn't happened to us BECAUSE of the shutdowns.

You can't say that with certainty. The only evidence is that the situation is different than predicted by models which leads to that conclusion. While there is no doubt that the shutdowns have to have prevented some number of infections from happening, we don't know (and never will know) what actually would have happened without them.

We especially don't know what would have happened if, instead of shutdowns, social distancing and protection were implemented while leaving everything open.

Honestly, if you look at the daily new case graphs for Italy and Spain your first thought isn't going to be, "wow, the lockdowns really slowed the spread!"

 

[Jrb1979]

To start with, you need to read the part of my post before the part you quoted where I said, "My sense is that if you eliminated the densely packed, long duration queues by using some kind of virtual queue system (either all FP+ or some kind of boarding group system that worked like the old FP system for standby), suspended parades and fireworks, encouraged hand washing/hand sanitizer and put into place enhanced sanitizing of surfaces, there would be a relatively small amount of virus spread at WDW."

The premise I am starting with is that there are measures taken at WDW to reduce the likelihood of spread to start with. I am also assuming that there will still be distancing or protection measures in place at businesses and work places at home. This, of course, includes health care facilities where providers should be wearing masks in general and certainly if they have just returned from WDW.

What I meant, and was admittedly a little unclear about, by avoiding high risk people upon return was people that live in your household or family members/friends that you visit without taking precautions.



Specifically related to nursing homes and how the conditions in them are much more conducive to spread than other places, according to the Florida Health Care Association, there are approximately 71,000 residents of nursing homes statewide. That means that 0.33% of the population accounts for 8% of the cases and 25% of the deaths.



You can't say that with certainty. The only evidence is that the situation is different than predicted by models which leads to that conclusion. While there is no doubt that the shutdowns have to have prevented some number of infections from happening, we don't know (and never will know) what actually would have happened without them.

We especially don't know what would have happened if, instead of shutdowns, social distancing and protection were implemented while leaving everything open.

Honestly, if you look at the daily new case graphs for Italy and Spain your first thought isn't going to be, "wow, the lockdowns really slowed the spread!"

We will have a better idea if the lockdowns work when they start reopening things. I expect a jump in cases following each phase.

 

[DisneyCane]

With Governor Ron DeSantis’ Re-Open Florida Task Force Executive Committee now fully assembled, it seems the governor is already in talks with Walt Disney World executives in order to spearhead a plan for reopening businesses across Florida. The special committee is tasked with figuring out a timetable on when the local parks, like Walt Disney World, will be able to reopen, and they will be meeting today to determine the first potential steps.
According to Spectrum News 13, some of the steps being considered include:
Timetable for coming back

• Reopening will have to be gradual
• State residents, then national and international visitors

The Task Force will be determining gradual reopening steps for the state, which is considered to be approaching Phase One of the White House’s three-phase reopening guidelines. Also under consideration is the notion of opening to local and state residents first, then national and international visitors.

Final recommendations will be sent in by the end of the week for the Governor to review.

Good information.

One point that I think makes a lot of sense is opening for state residents first then national then international. I don’t know if Disney could open more than MK and maybe a hotel or 2 for just FL residents but that would make the most sense. If things heat up it’s easier to trace cases if they are contained to 1 state. You also avoid the risk of people coming in from hot spots and spreading the virus. As states open on staggered timelines there’s no way WDW should allow guests from a state that isn't In phase 3 to visit. So if Florida gets there earlier than most states, open up to locals only. I’m sure that would anger out of state guests but its better to be safe than sorry

I wish I had the time to go back and quote all the posts that basically called me an idiot for suggesting that WDW could open for Florida residents first.

 

[Polynesia]

Good information.

One point that I think makes a lot of sense is opening for state residents first then national then international. I don’t know if Disney could open more than MK and maybe a hotel or 2 for just FL residents but that would make the most sense. If things heat up it’s easier to trace cases if they are contained to 1 state. You also avoid the risk of people coming in from hot spots and spreading the virus. As states open on staggered timelines there’s no way WDW should allow guests from a state that isn't In phase 3 to visit. So if Florida gets there earlier than most states, open up to locals only. I’m sure that would anger out of state guests but its better to be safe than sorry

I agree. Everyone is doing their part to help contain this virus. It actually scares me that some states may open too early and come here. It wouldn’t just infect Florida but all the other states that guests are from. Then we’re back at square one. The Florida resident criteria may only be for a short time if things go well. The entire country needs to flatten and decline before travel is encouraged between areas. We’re getting there. We all just need to be patient, myself included.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

We especially don't know what would have happened if, instead of shutdowns, social distancing and protection were implemented while leaving everything open.

No we don’t but that’s what we did. No use is bringing it up constantly. It’s how we move forward now.
We don’t know what would have happened if we didn’t drop the bomb in WW2. We don’t know what would have happened if we handled 9/11 differently after we were attacked. We can go on and on.
We are here and we need to do this as responsibly and safely as we can with data and the scientific community working their butts off.
I think the guidelines of 14 day decrease is a good start but even that is being ignored. We will see.

 

[The Mom]

No we don’t but that’s what we did. No use is bringing it up constantly. It’s how we move forward now.
We don’t know what would have happened if we didn’t drop the bomb in WW2. We don’t know what would have happened if we handled 9/11 differently after we were attacked. We can go on and on.
We are here and we need to do this as responsibly and safely as we can with data and the scientific community working their butts off.
I think the guidelines of 14 day decrease is a good start but even that is being ignored. We will see.

This^^^^^ Which is why posters are getting warnings for continuing the "Coulda, shoulda, woulda" argument.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wish I had the time to go back and quote all the posts that basically called me an idiot for suggesting that WDW could open for Florida residents first.

I said it makes a lot of sense. That doesn’t mean they will do it I also don’t know if the math works. Can they draw enough people to make opening the parks to locals only worth it financially?

I know the recommendations said that non-essential travel could resume in phase 2, but I’m a little more conservative there. I think it would be wise to keep people more local until we see what happens. You can’t undo opening things up completely and it won’t kill the economy to open non-essential travel a little later.

 

[Flugell]

I have become increasingly depressed over the last ten or so pages with the hardening of opinions. My husband, who is a wonderful, kind, intelligent, generous man is 71. Like most people of his age he has some underlying health conditions but still maintains a positive lifestyle involved in the community and is a superb trumpet/cornet player. Yet according to my understanding of some comments I should be preparing to accept his death in exchange for having the right to not follow guidance, opening businesses with unnecessary haste to avoid people dying of hunger- in the USA? As a Brit I obviously have more faith in your great country than you do. I know that eventually everything will have to return to whatever the new normal is........but not at the expense of a generation who, along with the younger generations, paid their taxes, worked the horrible jobs for little reward and just want to enjoy their twilight years. To suggest that we simply stay away from places such as WDW is no different from saying that people of different ethnicity, religion or political ideologies should stay away and absolutely correctly that is illegal and more importantly immoral. This is not to underplay the anguish of business people who were doing well before the pandemic and are now in danger of losing everything they have worked for, probably for many years. But businesses can be supported by the government, the unemployed can be helped and in time jobs replaced. The love of my life could never be replaced, so please, please don’t be dismissive of accepting inconvenience or even intrusion into your virtual privacy no matter how unpleasant or repugnant you find it. I know you don’t intend for people to die because of actions taken but it could happen. Thanks to everyone, because everyone is doing what they believe is the best they can.

I realise that this post may be regarded as political, it is not intended as such, it’s just an honest personal perspective.

 

[jmp85]

Did you know that contact tracing was happening all over the US and always does when infectious diseases pop up? They only stopped once the number of cases got higher than their ability to track. In the beginning of this outbreak in the US anyone who tested positive was contacted by the department of health and asked to provide a list of anyone they came in contact with. I saw an interview with a woman who was one of the early confirmed patients and she said she got a call and they asked her for a list and she gave names and numbers for friends, co-workers and family members she visited but she also went to a Cleveland Cavaliers game so obviously there is no way to trace that...unless you have a phone app.

On the phone app itself, it‘s an optional app that needs to be downloaded and turned on to work. You don’t need to get hysterical and trash your phone. You can just opt out. It’s also not mass tracking. It doesn’t use GPS it uses Bluetooth and there’s no way a cheating spouse could be caught because of it. It’s your choice what to do, but get the facts before posting inaccurate information that could mislead other people.

Right on Goofy. I don't disagree. These discussions have a way of getting off topic, really fast. I'm going to try to avoid entering anymore debates (for at least a day), so I hope you all have a magical (and safe) day!

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I have become increasingly depressed over the last ten or so pages with the hardening of opinions. My husband, who is a wonderful, kind, intelligent, generous man is 71. Like most people of his age he has some underlying health conditions but still maintains a positive lifestyle involved in the community and is a superb trumpet/cornet player. Yet according to my understanding of some comments I should be preparing to accept his death in exchange for having the right to not follow guidance, opening businesses with unnecessary haste to avoid people dying of hunger- in the USA? As a Brit I obviously have more faith in your great country than you do. I know that eventually everything will have to return to whatever the new normal is........but not at the expense of a generation who, along with the younger generations, paid their taxes, worked the horrible jobs for little reward and just want to enjoy their twilight years. To suggest that we simply stay away from places such as WDW is no different from saying that people of different ethnicity, religion or political ideologies should stay away and absolutely correctly that is illegal and more importantly immoral. This is not to underplay the anguish of business people who were doing well before the pandemic and are now in danger of losing everything they have worked for, probably for many years. But businesses can be supported by the government, the unemployed can be helped and in time jobs replaced. The love of my life could never be replaced, so please, please don’t be dismissive of accepting inconvenience or even intrusion into your virtual privacy no matter how unpleasant or repugnant you find it. I know you don’t intend for people to die because of actions taken but it could happen. Thanks to everyone, because everyone is doing what they believe is the best they can.

I realise that this post may be regarded as political, it is not intended as such, it’s just an honest personal perspective.

I don’t find it political at all. Just a very well thought out and kind feelings from someone that is worried. There are many people with different opinions and that’s ok. Yours is as welcome as theirs are. I happen to agree with you.

 

[csmat99]

The police using cell phone pings to track people's movements is very common.

So is police using toll systems like Ezpass. Many criminal and cheating spouse got caught that way.

 

[GoofGoof]

So is police using toll systems like Ezpass. Many criminal and cheating spouse got caught that way.

Not sure about police using EZpass records. I guess if they got a subpoena it would be possible. Just like phone records. A cheating spouse could be caught if they share an account with their spouse and they already have access to the records. I don’t think in a civil court case that EZpass records could be obtained without permission of the account holder.

 

[thomas998]

New York hospitals have been overloaded and are in chaos.

The biggest reason New York's hospital system has been in chaos is that they have a very low ratio of hospital beds to people. The entire state of New York is only 2.7 beds per 1,000 people but in New York City area that ratio drops even lower to about 1.5 beds per 1,000 people... Only after they converted hotel rooms and set up other makeshift hospital beds did they increase it to the state's 2.7 ratio. The hospital bed situation in NYC seems to have stabilized now so it is possible that a ratio of 2.7 may be a good proxy for where the ratio of an area needs to be to get through this pandemic. Which then makes it look like California is going to have some serious problems as they are sitting at a ratio of 1.8 which is one of the lowest in the country.

When you look at the ratios it kind of makes sense that a state like South Dakota didn't ever go into any real lockdown mode as they have the highest ratio in the country at 4.8, so in their case they have can withstand a lot more problems before their system gets stressed.

 

[lilypgirl]

New York hospitals have been overloaded and are in chaos.

Then it is not time for NY to loosen their restrictions.

 

[thomas998]

So is police using toll systems like Ezpass. Many criminal and cheating spouse got caught that way.

There have been cases of the drivers getting a ticket when the toll system showed that they were speeding by the fact that the time they entered the toll road and the time they exited was too short to have been accomplished without speeding... and that happened before the computerized method when they had paper tickets and people in toll booths collecting money. So with EZpass it would be even easier if they were to decide to do it.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Abigail Disney on Disney furloughs: 'What the actual f---'?

Abigail Disney is flabbergasted over the Walt Disney Co.'s decision to furlough thousands low-paid workers after paying its executives millions of dollars.

www.cnn.com

 

[DisneyCane]

I have become increasingly depressed over the last ten or so pages with the hardening of opinions. My husband, who is a wonderful, kind, intelligent, generous man is 71. Like most people of his age he has some underlying health conditions but still maintains a positive lifestyle involved in the community and is a superb trumpet/cornet player. Yet according to my understanding of some comments I should be preparing to accept his death in exchange for having the right to not follow guidance, opening businesses with unnecessary haste to avoid people dying of hunger- in the USA? As a Brit I obviously have more faith in your great country than you do. I know that eventually everything will have to return to whatever the new normal is........but not at the expense of a generation who, along with the younger generations, paid their taxes, worked the horrible jobs for little reward and just want to enjoy their twilight years. To suggest that we simply stay away from places such as WDW is no different from saying that people of different ethnicity, religion or political ideologies should stay away and absolutely correctly that is illegal and more importantly immoral. This is not to underplay the anguish of business people who were doing well before the pandemic and are now in danger of losing everything they have worked for, probably for many years. But businesses can be supported by the government, the unemployed can be helped and in time jobs replaced. The love of my life could never be replaced, so please, please don’t be dismissive of accepting inconvenience or even intrusion into your virtual privacy no matter how unpleasant or repugnant you find it. I know you don’t intend for people to die because of actions taken but it could happen. Thanks to everyone, because everyone is doing what they believe is the best they can.

I realise that this post may be regarded as political, it is not intended as such, it’s just an honest personal perspective.

I think you are misreading the intent of the posts, certainly mine. In no way am I saying that you should be prepared for your husband to die. The intent was to show that the risk of death is much higher for certain groups, particularly the elderly and elderly with underlying health conditions and that measures don't need to be in place that treat the entire population the same as the high risk population. I also don't think you or your husband should be banned from WDW or anywhere similar. I think you should have the right to decide if the risk is acceptable given your individual situation. It isn't remotely the same as discrimination.

A better analogy would be that if you don't know how to swim, you shouldn't go boating without wearing a life vest because the risk is higher that you will fall into the water and drown than for somebody who knows how to swim.

For a little perspective, in New York State, which has the worst outbreak in the world of COVID-19 (with the exception of China where nobody knows the real outbreak numbers), approximately 1 in 200 people 70+ have died from COVID-19, 59% of whom were 80+ and 19% of whom were 90+. Even in the worst outbreak, somebody who is elderly still has a very small chance to catch and die from COVID-19.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Abigail Disney on Disney furloughs: 'What the actual f---'?

Abigail Disney is flabbergasted over the Walt Disney Co.'s decision to furlough thousands low-paid workers after paying its executives millions of dollars.

www.cnn.com

I noticed she came out of hibernation again

 

[JohnD]

I noticed she came out of hibernation again

Just remember, being that she is the granddaughter of Roy Disney that makes her the daughter of Walt's "idiot nephew".

 

[Jrb1979]

What part of slowly reopening things is hard to understand. No is screaming at the top of their lungs to keep us on lockdown It is why the guidelines were put in place. You start with small businesses. Eventually places like Disney can open up. Its never been all, which a lot of you want or nothing.