Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Florida now has the dubious honor of the worst state in the USA to successfully process unemployment claims. Last few weeks out of 850,000 people applying, only 4% of the claims were successfully processed. That's totally unacceptable. Every single worker gets money taken out of their weekly paycheck to fund unemployment and Florida has failed the working people of the Sunshine State.

Florida unemployment (reemployment) tax is paid by the employer. It is also only paid on the first $7,000 per year of income for each employee. While they may account for this in the pay they offer, it is not a payroll deduction. It is also typically a very low tax rate.

Also, not that the rate of successfully processed claims is extremely high but according to the Florida Reemployment Dashboard, the rate is much higher than 4%.

 

[DisneyCane]

also, yeah, there's probably a good reason "doom and gloomers" might think "the grass is greener" is other countries:

View attachment 465186

That chart is absolutely meaningless without being normalized to population. Go look at the data at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and sort by deaths per 1,000,000 population. The order of the countries is very different from that chart.

 

[jmp85]

"analyst" aka......doesnt know anything

If you've ever sat in on an earnings call, you'd know these guys are usually clueless.

 

[rle4lunch]

um. quick math is under .6%

the US is at an almost six percent (5.38 percent) mortality rate for documented cases, not 0.6. pretty massive difference.

i'm not saying we won't get to 0.6 percent eventually once widespread antibody tests are rolled out, but as far as current calculations, your confusing your decimal points. FWIW, the lancet published research based on data out of china that said that 0.6 percent is likely the true mortality rate, but that would still be six times deadlier than the flu.

also, yeah, there's probably a good reason "doom and gloomers" might think "the grass is greener" is other countries:

View attachment 465186

Autocorrect on my phone. Nevertheless, what America is doing with the lockdown isn't right. Sweden has a better model IMO for handling the virus.

We're currently awaiting our results since we believe it ran through our family at the end of January, early Feb (we're in California, where they now know it was here in November). If indeed it was covid-19, I'll be glad to have had it and be done with it. The mass hysteria that we're all gonna die if we touch a box is completely unfounded.

United States

Confirmed 800,932

Recovered 73,379

Deaths 43,006

 

[baymenxpac]

That chart is absolutely meaningless without being normalized to population. Go look at the data at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and sort by deaths per 1,000,000 population. The order of the countries is very different from that chart.

i mean, no...it's not meaningless. context like population is obviously important. what is also important is the steepness in ascent of death (which is also indicative of the the trajectory of infection), which is what the graph depicts.

the commenter i replied to essentially said people that have questioned the US's response are just being debbie downers. i think if you want to believe that, that's cool. but basically every piece of data shows that isn't the case.

 

[disney4life2008]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I prefer the united States the way it is now. And Orlando is great without all the tourists and traffic. I love Orlando (yep I said it)

 

[jmp85]

I apologize. Today they’re voting for small businesses. I don’t was confused as I read a tv runner. But here’s a link that it’s being proposed

Proposed: $2,000 Monthly Stimulus Checks And Canceled Rent And Mortgage Payments For 1 Year

$2,000 Monthly Stimulus Check for up to 12 Months and Canceled Rent & Mortgage Payments for 1 Year

www.forbes.com

That proposal, in its current form, has as much of a chance passing as Disney opening tomorrow.

 

[Kevin_W]

That chart is absolutely meaningless without being normalized to population. Go look at the data at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and sort by deaths per 1,000,000 population. The order of the countries is very different from that chart.

I was just going to say the same thing. There are certainly outliers like S. Korea, where the disease started earlier yet they are only at ~5 deaths per million people, but the US is quite a bit lower than Europe.

You posted a graph of Italy vs. Sweden a few days ago. It's interesting how the start dates differ, but each most countries graphs end up looking quite similar in shape. Russia was held up a few weeks ago as a country with minimal infections, but now their curve looks very similar to the US/Europe's. As I said, there are few outliers - S. Korea and India jump out as being quite different, and even China though these days people don't seem to trust their numbers.

 

[Horizons '83]

i mean, no...it's not meaningless. context like population is obviously important. what is also important is the steepness in ascent of death (which is also indicative of the the trajectory of infection), which is what the graph depicts.

the commenter i replied to essentially said people that have questioned the US's response are just being debbie downers. i think if you want to believe that, that's cool. but basically every piece of data shows that isn't the case.

Also have to factor in the thousands that probably have it but aren't being tested. Larger tested population versus the current deaths would be much less than 6%. Just for the sake of argument (civil of course) if the real number is closer to 1.2 Million that have it with 43K deaths, that death rate is more like 3.5%

 

[ToTBellHop]

Also have to factor in the thousands that probably have it but aren't being tested. Larger tested population versus the current deaths would be much less than 6%. Just for the sake of argument (civil of course) if the real number is closer to 1.2 Million that have it with 43K deaths, that death rate is more like 3.5%

I know it’s “just for the sake of argument), but the growing consensus is it’s far more than 1.2 million. Low estimates suggest it is at least 10 times greater than reported (and perhaps 50x or even 80x). So at least 8 million. 0.5% at best. And we are seeing scientific estimates moving down into that range.

 

[Incomudro]

As always, I respect your opinion and the fact that you’re clearly on the more cautious side than I am. I think there needs to be a balance. Public health cannot be the sole goal, no matter the situation.

I’m not willing to do the bolded for an extended period of time... maybe you are. Maybe millions are. But I think there’s more who aren’t than are. We’re inherently social creatures and need to be social. That doesn’t mean open Disney World - but it does mean open local business.

The whole premise that lock downs, stay at home etc., was sold on was to reduce the infection rate to one that could be handled by our healthcare systems.
I believe that many people from civilians to politicians have lost sight of that.
Opening things up will produce an uptick in infections and therefore deaths, and we must accept that as ok.
Because, it is.
The trick is to open the valve at a rate where we can manage the infection and death rates.

 

[Andrew C]

The whole premise that lock downs, stay at home etc., was sold on was to reduce the infection rate to one that could be handled by our healthcare systems.
I believe that many people from civilians to politicians have lost sight of that.
Opening things up will produce an uptick in infections and therefore deaths, and we must accept that as ok.
Because, it is.
The trick is to open the valve at a rate where we can manage the infection and death rates.

Same is essentially true with testing and contact tracing. It won’t necessarily stop people from getting infected once we start to reopen. But it should help to prevent any potential hot spots that may flare up from getting out of hand. Like putting out the fire before it takes over.

 

[DisneyCane]

I was just going to say the same thing. There are certainly outliers like S. Korea, where the disease started earlier yet they are only at ~5 deaths per million people, but the US is quite a bit lower than Europe.

You posted a graph of Italy vs. Sweden a few days ago. It's interesting how the start dates differ, but each most countries graphs end up looking quite similar in shape. Russia was held up a few weeks ago as a country with minimal infections, but now their curve looks very similar to the US/Europe's. As I said, there are few outliers - S. Korea and India jump out as being quite different, and even China though these days people don't seem to trust their numbers.

I'd like to get more information on exactly what they are doing in S. Korea. I know they had an "advantage" in that the most serious early outbreak was contained to one region. However, I'd like to know what they were doing when they were getting 100 +/- new cases a day consistently for around a month and now have it down even further. I remember reading about masks and temperature screening along with testing. However, at this point the USA has done more testing per capita than South Korea so it isn't just testing that has allowed the control.

 

[celluloid]

Indeed. I'm an aerospace maintenance engineering officer in the Navy and this is a big deal for our idle aircraft as well. We're not profit driven though, so our inspection processes have a bit more scrutiny (due to mission set degraders). Nevertheless, aircraft need to continually fly to stay flying safely, if that makes sense.

It makes perfect sense. It goes for everything, incuding the human condition under things in motion tend to stay in motion. Get some highway in on your cars people.

 

[GoofGoof]

The whole premise that lock downs, stay at home etc., was sold on was to reduce the infection rate to one that could be handled by our healthcare systems.
I believe that many people from civilians to politicians have lost sight of that.
Opening things up will produce an uptick in infections and therefore deaths, and we must accept that as ok.
Because, it is.
The trick is to open the valve at a rate where we can manage the infection and death rates.

This is true. The key is to open things gradually to manage the outbreak. That also means the phases are not necessarily linear. If after 2 weeks things look good and you move to phase 2 it’s possible things go backwards and after another 2 weeks instead of graduating to phase 3 an area could stay put or even move back to phase 1. I think there are some overly optimistic people who think that 4 weeks after beginning to lift stay at home orders we will magically be on to phase 3 and everything is open. I hope that happens, but it’s likely to take more time.

One of the key aspects of opening up is that the healthcare providers get the proper equipment and supplies to continue to care for sick people safely. It is true that our hospitals were not overrun during wave 1 with shortages of ventilators and people dying due to lack of care, but our healthcare workers paid a heavy price for that. We can‘t expect people to work the hours they put in during the peak until there’s a vaccine and do it without proper equipment. There was a toll both mentally and physically on these people and without them many of the severely ill would have died. I want the country opened as much as the next person but we have to be better prepared and I hope that’s what’s happening right now while we ramp up to start phased openings.

 

[Patcheslee]

They're refering to Cedar Fair and other seasonal park operators. They extended dates for passes because they're mostly only open from spring to fall and they would not make original intended opening date of the season. (spring opening).

This does not mean they won't be opening this summer. They just want to assure there loyals/passholders that they will get what they paid for.

I'll say I was a bit concerned from a platinum holder POV before they extended passes: we can't go to any of the parks at the moment. But depending on which CF opens first our opportunity it there in multiple states vs the limited area a Disney passholder would have. Think that's where other amusement park brands have the advantage in this type of situation, they are more dispursed throughout the country.

 

[Incomudro]

This. Exactly. The folks living in fear—“What about this, and that, and doorknobs, and queue barriers, and elevator buttons.” I would minimize touching those things anyway. And I would not suck on my fingers or poke and rub my eye after touching.

I’d practice good hygiene, and carry Purell for when needed.

People are doing this now in businesses! At work. At stores. And we are/were in the thick of it.

And I'd add, if I were in a higher risk category - I'd wouldn't go, and I'd stay away from friends and family who just got back for a couple of weeks.

 

[Incomudro]

It makes perfect sense. It goes for everything, incuding the human condition under things in motion tend to stay in motion. Get some highway in on your cars people.

Every time I take my car out for a provisions run, I drive it around until the oil temperature (not the coolant temp.) reaches its operating range.

 

[Incomudro]

Random idea- but what would they do about the Elevator situation? I know it's minor, but doesn't almost everyone touch elevator buttons at WDW? Especially the Monorail hotels?

I've been pressing elevator buttons with my knuckles for years.

 

[DisneyCane]

That proposal, in its current form, has as much of a chance passing as Disney opening tomorrow.

With a fifth gate that has been under super secret construction!