Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

The article says analyst John Hodulik believes that "the company won’t be able to reopen its parks until Jan. 1, 2021"


Predicting a Jan 1, 2021 open?!?!? Get real please.
Predictions are fine but let's not make absurd ones.

I get what you are saying but do you think back in the beginning of March people would be saying June maybe? Possibly July? Maybe August? Not saying I agree with him but his guess is as good as any of ours right now.

 

[GoofGoof]

Always remember that every analyst opinion influences stock price. If they come out positively stocks react up, if they come out negatively stocks go down. Sometimes their impact is the intended purpose of the report more than accurate reporting and forecasting. They all have a bias and agenda.

Nobody knows when Disney will be able to successfully reopen. Not Iger, not Chapek, not DeSantis, not trump, and certainly not this guy.

What make January 1 2021 and better than august 1, 2020. There still won’t be a vaccine. So what changes between now and that arbitrary date?

The article says analyst John Hodulik believes that "the company won’t be able to reopen its parks until Jan. 1, 2021"


Predicting a Jan 1, 2021 open?!?!? Get real please.
Predictions are fine but let's not make absurd ones.

The analysts have a model. They can bump attendance up or down and other expenses or revenues up or down based on publicly available information. When there’s no firm info available (like in this case) they estimate. I’m sure there’s a certain break even point where the parks start making a profit. If they project attendance will be at or below that point the zero may be a simple way to show no profits from the segment. From an analyst‘s prospective there is little difference between the parks open on a limited basis with restrictions and just breaking even and the parks not being open at all. There are sunk costs in either case. To the thousands of people who work there and the uber park fans like most of the people here that’s a big difference.

 

[thomas998]

They announced a while back a capacity limit. They have to have the queues or some form of line system in case the capacity is reached. I assume all stores have somewhat different policies depending on setup.

Walmart is changing store policy amid COVID-19

Then it is silly that they never bothered to explain to their employees why they were guarding the queue and even more baffling as I didn't see anyone with a tally counter to determine when the limit had been reached.

 

[donsullivan]

Then it is silly that they never bothered to explain to their employees why they were guarding the queue and even more baffling as I didn't see anyone with a tally counter to determine when the limit had been reached.

You're making a colossal generalization that your experience represents all since the people in the role at both local stores near me (SuperStore and Walmart market) knew exactly what was going on and why they were there. I made the personal choice not to get all worked up over having to wait 45 seconds for the one person in front of me to be cleared into the store before I could go in. There is enough stress in my life right now that I chose not to get all stressed out about a queue to get into a Walmart to manage the number of people crowding the aisles during all of this. But that's just me.

 

[electric]

Then it is silly that they never bothered to explain to their employees why they were guarding the queue and even more baffling as I didn't see anyone with a tally counter to determine when the limit had been reached.

Does any of that surprise you?

 

[GoofGoof]

I have no specifics on this particular one but these sort of analyst reports are often done to drive the stock in one direction or another vs being based on any actually factual data. It happens all the time, especially with people who have created an opportunity to make money when the stock goes down. Don't pay any attention to that stuff, pay attention to what Disney says. We should start to see some indications of their thinking late this week as the local re-opening task force for the whole Central Florida economy makes its initial recommendations.

In fairness to these analysts they are sell side analysts making these predictions. They don’t work for the side of the business that actually invests in stocks. They make money by selling advise to other people. Generally they don’t have a stock position one way or the other. There are other analysts who work for institutional investment companies that advise the actual buying or selling of stock for their company. You will rarely if ever see these people give a public opinion.

 

[HongKongFooy]

I get what you are saying but do you think back in the beginning of March people would be saying June maybe? Possibly July? Maybe August? Not saying I agree with him but his guess is as good as any of ours right now.

I bet you don't get my point....and I'm guessing others have yet to figure out the sheer folly in such an opening of Jan 1.


Look it's like this: the very last day Disney would open(aside from the impossible 30 days from now) is Jan 1.



Like Disney would miss out on the biggest moneymaking time of the year just 7 days prior to the Jan 1 date whereby $800+ rooms happen with frequency.

 

[Jrb1979]

Does any of that surprise you?

Its all theatre to make people fear. This virus won't hurt you. . Tell that to my wife who has it and is struggling with breathing.

 

[GoofGoof]

Then it is silly that they never bothered to explain to their employees why they were guarding the queue and even more baffling as I didn't see anyone with a tally counter to determine when the limit had been reached.

When I went to Target about a week ago they weren‘t using the queue because the store wasn’t that full. As it gets close I imagine they would open it up. They should have had someone counting, maybe done in the security room using video.

 

[HongKongFooy]

Unless our world changes dates and meaning of Christmas and new year's eve rush ain't no logical way to open Jan 1

 

[thomas998]

Unless our world changes dates and meaning of Christmas and new year's eve rush ain't no logical way to open Jan 1

Oh if the hysteria continues until the end of the year Disney would reopen just like the pandemic never happened because there wont be enough people with money left to create any significant crowd. The first wave of layoffs across the country targeted the low wage service side of the economy but if the hysteria continues you will see a second wave as the higher paying jobs start getting cut.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Unless our world changes dates and meaning of Christmas and new year's eve rush ain't no logical way to open Jan 1

I’m thinking the January 1st date may have been just..” Disney won’t open the rest of this year” sort of thing. Of course Christmas period is the most crowded, and the most expensive. Let’s not forget the summer is a big deal also and we have no idea about that yet. They are crowded all year anymore and the need to open is high. Just Brito do it safety, whether that’s means June 1st or pick a month and day.

 

[Polynesia]

Unemployment and stimulus checks that will extend thru end of 2020? Winning Powerball is more realistic.

Unemployment I can see easily being extended. When we had the downswing in the economy ten years ago or so unemployment was extended and it depended on the unemployment rate of your state. If unemployment is still high in Florida there’s an excellent chance of it being extended. Just commenting on what has happened previously through a tough economy. I recall it going over a year in some areas. They’re voting on a package right now to give each adult $2000 every month for six months whether employed or not. This will also go a long way in helping households.

 

[Polynesia]

Oh if the hysteria continues until the end of the year Disney would reopen just like the pandemic never happened because there wont be enough people with money left to create any significant crowd. The first wave of layoffs across the country targeted the low wage service side of the economy but if the hysteria continues you will see a second wave as the higher paying jobs start getting cut.

Some of the easiest jobs to cut are upper management. There’s always those beneath them who can pick up the slack much cheaper. Where I worked it was done last October. Not saying it’s right but it saves the company big dollars.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I bet you don't get my point....and I'm guessing others have yet to figure out the sheer folly in such an opening of Jan 1.


Look it's like this: the very last day Disney would open(aside from the impossible 30 days from now) is Jan 1.



Like Disney would miss out on the biggest moneymaking time of the year just 7 days prior to the Jan 1 date whereby $800+ rooms happen with frequency.

I can't help but be reminded of that line in Titanic. "Your money can't save you any more than it can save me." I swear this isn't a non-sequitur but it may be masquerading as one.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Unemployment I can see easily being extended. When we had the downswing in the economy ten years ago or so unemployment was extended and it depended on the unemployment rate of your state. If unemployment is still high in Florida there’s an excellent chance of it being extended. Just commenting on what has happened previously through a tough economy. I recall it going over a year in some areas. They’re voting on a package right now to give each adult $2000 every month for six months whether employed or not. This will also go a long way in helping households.

I believe that 2000 thousand a month was just one of the proposals being bantered around. Not sure if it’s part on the package that was just agreed upon. Last few days I’ve only heard about the small business part of this package. We will see.

 

[Parker in NYC]

That's scary. Every dollar the government spends is going to have to be paid back with interest from taxpayers in the future. At this rate I will be pushing my family to migrate to a different country as we are headed toward a tax rate that will be insanely high to pay for all this.

Good. Less people in line for Flight of Passage. Wait, sorry. That's just a forum reflex of mine.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

Where is your local hospital? Testing those involved in patient care would be good, especially those working in nursing homes.

Major Midwest academic center.

 

[thomas998]

Some of the easiest jobs to cut are upper management. There’s always those beneath them who can pick up the slack much cheaper. Where I worked it was done last October. Not saying it’s right but it saves the company big dollars.

I've worked in several companies that underwent down sizing and it was always amazing how the upper management was almost never touched in the first waves. The companies would always chop the lower level minions that actually did work while saving management which often went completely untouched. It never really made sense to any of us minions because you would see some groups were you had manager with no one under them because all the minions were cut, and everyone knew that if you were really trying to save money and cut costs that cutting a VP would have saved the company as much money as cutting 4 or 5 of the minions. So if you company cut upper management first then rejoice in working for a place that at least did it the right way.

 

[Andrew C]

$2000 a month to everyone who is out of work.

US unemployment is currently providing more than that.