Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mdcpr]

How is this for an idea? Everyone chill and wait for WDW to make an announcement on when they will open.

 

[lazyboy97o]

You simply can't have contact tracing in the US due to medical privacy laws. If you want to change the laws let congress do it, but at the rate they move the virus will be well over before that happens... remember even if they held an emergency session tomorrow and changed the laws those changes would be held up in court for years.

Except that contact tracing already happens, but sure, let's just make up a reason something that happens cannot happen again.

 

[DisneyCane]

Its why I think Disney, theme parks, and sporting events and concerts aren't opening for a long while. There is a reason most leagues are talking of playing in front of no fans for the time being. The best way to look at is til Sports start letting fans in the crowd then Disney is probably not opening.

I agree with being cautious about venues where people are sitting next to each other and a couple of feet in front or behind them. Obviously it isn't a top priority at the moment but the scientists need to assess the actual risk of sitting next to an asymptomatic infected person for a max of 3 1/2 hours in both an outdoor stadium and indoor arena. Both are a very different environment than a church or classroom where not only are people in close proximity but they also directly interact with many other attendees.

 

[DisneyCane]

If you are exposed to an STD like HIV you get a notice in the mail saying you were in contact with someone it doesn't provide the name. But the problem with this type of contacting and all the early coronavirus contacting is that it is based on asking the person infected who they were in contact with. The only way that would really work worth a flip would be if they took a photograph of the person that was infected and posted it on the internet along with the name and the persons best recollection of where they had gone for all to see because the reality is simply asking Mr. Deathbed who he had contact with is not going to give you anyone other than the people he remembers coming into contact with. He is dying and isn't really going to be thinking that clearly about who he was in contact with over the past week and very shortly he'll be sedated and stuck on a ventilator to die which makes the odds of you getting any good information from him very low. For tracing to work you need to be able to go beyond what is currently allowed and publish Mr. Deathbed's photo and name so people can look and see if they remember being around him.

I don't believe that the privacy right extends after death but I'm not positive on that. You are correct that there are some issues with contact tracing. If they can come up with a guaranteed secure and private way to implement the app that Apple and Google are working on, it would solve a lot of the contact tracing issues.

I am only in favor of that app if the source code is released so that software engineers can review it and guarantee that no personal information is held or distributed.

 

[Jrb1979]

I agree with being cautious about venues where people are sitting next to each other and a couple of feet in front or behind them. Obviously it isn't a top priority at the moment but the scientists need to ***** the actual risk of sitting next to an asymptomatic infected person for a max of 3 1/2 hours in both an outdoor stadium and indoor arena. Both are a very different environment than a church or classroom where not only are people in close proximity but they also directly interact with many other attendees.

That takes time to figure out. Right now finding away to treat people that get this is more important. When they do find a treatment that works it will change things.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I don't believe that the privacy right extends after death but I'm not positive on that. You are correct that there are some issues with contact tracing. If they can come up with a guaranteed secure and private way to implement the app that Apple and Google are working on, it would solve a lot of the contact tracing issues.

I am only in favor of that app if the source code is released so that software engineers can review it and guarantee that no personal information is held or distributed.

It’s unclear to me why the source code isn’t already out. Let folks vet the software NOW so it can reasonably roll out next month.

 

[thomas998]

Except that contact tracing already happens, but sure, let's just make up a reason something that happens cannot happen again.

Contact tracing in for coronavirus will not work. It relies on the person infected accurately disclosing each and every person they came into contact with, and when you are spewing viruses everywhere you go it really is pointless because you don't know who got in the taxi after you left it, or who walked into the bathroom you used in the mall, or what about the time you went into the grocery store and looked for something before leaving you didn't even buy anything so there is no record of you being there shedding the virus all over and when someone else also enters the store and leaves there is not record of them passing through your virus trail.

Contact tracing works for something like an STD because most people remember who they had sex with, but it will simply never work for something like a virus that a person is shedding 24/7 everywhere they go.

 

[wannabeBelle]

I don't believe that the privacy right extends after death but I'm not positive on that. You are correct that there are some issues with contact tracing. If they can come up with a guaranteed secure and private way to implement the app that Apple and Google are working on, it would solve a lot of the contact tracing issues.

I am only in favor of that app if the source code is released so that software engineers can review it and guarantee that no personal information is held or distributed.

I heard about this on the news the other day. The privacy implications are definitely there. Marie

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Sorry if I was unclear. I was asking what is the definition of mass testing to you given Dr. Fauci's comments on Friday?

It’s all good. I heard what Dr.Fauci said and let me preface this by saying I’m a big fan . He is the only one making sense for the most part about this whole mess.
He said exactly what you said.. but he also said he wasn’t down playing testing at all and it remains a highly integral part of what we need to do. I’ll post the link below on exactly what he said.
Things are fluid and are changing almost daily. The one thing that almost hasn’t changed from the beginning is the need for massive testing. They may change their minds on exactly how much but I believe they also know we haven’t done nearly as much.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci explained during the taskforce briefing that there are challenges with hinging all expectations on testing: "The point about that that I think is often misunderstood is that if you get a test today—like I did today; it's negative—if you get a test today, that does not mean that tomorrow or the next day or the next day or the next day, as you get exposed, perhaps from someone who may not even know they're infected, that that means that I'm negative," he said. "Which means, if you take that to its extreme, in order to be really sure, you would almost have to test somebody either every day or every other day or every week or what it is to be absolutely certain. That's an issue."

"Testing is a part, an important part, of a multifaceted way that we are going to control and ultimately end this outbreak," Fauci declared. "So please don't anyone interpret it that I'm downplaying testing, but the emphasis that we've been hearing is essentially, 'testing is everything,' and it isn't. It's the kinds of things that we've been doing — the mitigation strategies"—like stay-at-home orders, social distancing—"that are an important part of that."

Fauci also addressed antibody tests, and how they'll be useful in knowing how much of the population has been infected. He said based on what's known about other viruses, "[w]e are assuming that if you're infected and you have [the] antibody, you're protected.. But what we want to make sure that we know, and these are some of the challenges: What is the titer that is protective? How long is the protection? Is it one month? Is it three months? Is it six months? It's a year? So we need to be humble and modest that we don't know everything about it, but it really is an important test."

 

[thomas998]

I don't believe that the privacy right extends after death but I'm not positive on that. You are correct that there are some issues with contact tracing. If they can come up with a guaranteed secure and private way to implement the app that Apple and Google are working on, it would solve a lot of the contact tracing issues.

I am only in favor of that app if the source code is released so that software engineers can review it and guarantee that no personal information is held or distributed.

If you wait until after someone dies to provide details on who had the virus it doesn't do much good. Think about how long it takes for the person to die by the time it happens everyone that was infected by them is already well infected and either asymptomatic or feeling the full effects of the virus. So what's the point of telling those people they were exposed? Better yet, when there is no cure what is the point of telling someone they are infected at all? With STD's it makes sense to contact someone exposed because they can be treated for the disease but with an untreatable disease what did you really gain?

As for the apps, remember you really wanted to be able to contact everyone that had been potentially exposed you would need to be capturing all the GPS data from every phone of every person and storing it for several weeks... then when you had a person diagnosed with the virus you would need to basically have a program look at the known path of that person for the past week and then pull up every person that had passed through that same path within say 3 hours of the time the infected person was there, remember the virus can hang in the air so if the infected person walked into a convenience store at 10:00am on the 18th you need to get anyone that went in that store between 10:00am and 1:00pm... that's going to be kicking up a lot of contact reports.. in the end you could probably just write a program that sent out a contact notice to anyone that left their house because you will likely be crossing the path of someone that was infected anytime you go anywhere.

 

[Patcheslee]

Except that contact tracing already happens, but sure, let's just make up a reason something that happens cannot happen again.

I'll say contract tracing isn't reliable due to the guesstimated 14 day period and it relys on the positive person knowing all places and people they have come into close contact with over that period. Personally have very little belief it's good enough because coworkers have tested positive and they didn't even give all their close contacts in at least now 2 cases. Both of which sit at the same picnic table as other people, and they were NEVER contacted by work or the health department. It took the positive persons names being leaked and when the concern was brought up company could not confirm who it was but did tell all those people at the same break area to quarantine and self monitor for 2 week.
Our health department won't even give dates or places a person may have visited.

 

[icc2515]

You still act as if stringing this along is saving people, it isn't,

Do you have a scientific source for this?

Everyday that we can stop people from getting infected is a day that the scientists and doctors have to find a treatment that will save lives. People that die from it today might have been able to be saved in 2 months. Here is my source on a possible treatment that looks promising and a link to studies that have been started that you can follow for the results.

Antiviral remdesivir prevents disease progression in monkeys with COVID-19

Study supports clinical testing under way across U.S.

www.nih.gov

Press Releases | Gilead

Read the latest news about Gilead's work in COVID-19, HIV, viral hepatitis, cancer and other areas.

www.gilead.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Contact tracing in for coronavirus will not work. It relies on the person infected accurately disclosing each and every person they came into contact with, and when you are spewing viruses everywhere you go it really is pointless because you don't know who got in the taxi after you left it, or who walked into the bathroom you used in the mall, or what about the time you went into the grocery store and looked for something before leaving you didn't even buy anything so there is no record of you being there shedding the virus all over and when someone else also enters the store and leaves there is not record of them passing through your virus trail.

Contact tracing works for something like an STD because most people remember who they had sex with, but it will simply never work for something like a virus that a person is shedding 24/7 everywhere they go.

You are definitely correct about this. They did contact trace the man believed to be "patient 0" in Washington State and missed someone. I think the idea of the contact tracing in the phased plan is more to slow the spread without widespread "lockdown" measures and not to actually contain via quarantine like could be done with an STD.

Unfortunately, I suspect that there are more people than I care to think about who don't remember who they had sex with.

 

[Horizons '83]

How is this for an idea? Everyone chill and wait for WDW to make an announcement on when they will open.

I don't like that idea all ... it almost makes too much sense

 

[Lilofan]

Oh the irony, Iger who's leadership was responsible for countless Americans losing their jobs to cheaper H1B visa holders, and Tim Cook the wonderful leader of Apple another company that's so great at moving jobs out of America and into countries like China which started this whole pandemic. Could he not have found any worse choices than these two?

Part of the success of these billionaires/millionaires is looking for opportunities in third world countries where labor, land and expansion is pennies compared to having operations in the USA.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Part of the success of these billionaires/millionaires is looking for opportunities in third world countries where labor, land and expansion is pennies compared to having operations in the USA.

It’s the exact reason why mostly everything is made somewhere else now. They all do it.
Making the most money you possibly can is not a party line thing.

 

[thomas998]

Part of the success of these billionaires/millionaires is looking for opportunities in third world countries where labor, land and expansion is pennies compared to having operations in the USA.

Sadly even if the labor and land were the same in the foreign country they would often outsource simply to avoid those nasty little things like the environmental laws or workplace safety regulations. That has always been my big problem with free trade, I would have no problem with it if every country had the same laws and regulations related to how a business operated but they don't which means millions of jobs go to Mexico or China where dumping the toxic waste produced in a factory is pretty much ignored.

 

[Horizons '83]

It’s the exact reason why mostly everything is made somewhere else now. They all do it.

I can't really blame Cook or Iger for that either, it would be irresponsible to not leverage cheaper labor where it makes sense.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Since AIDS is brought up her fairly regularly, I remember there were groups in the 80s who outright ignored the AIDS epidemic and continued to live their lives without any kind of protection. That's all I see when I think of the beaches in Tampa. Utter disregard. And since we all want to get back to Disney as soon and safely as possible, I really want to tell these folks to wear a rubber or get off my lawn. Er, beach.

 

[Lilofan]

Sadly even if the labor and land were the same in the foreign country they would often outsource simply to avoid those nasty little things like the environmental laws or workplace safety regulations. That has always been my big problem with free trade, I would have no problem with it if every country had the same laws and regulations related to how a business operated but they don't which means millions of jobs go to Mexico or China where dumping the toxic waste produced in a factory is pretty much ignored.

Very true. My relative flew in a lear jet on a business trip to central Mexico. He was escorted by armed guards from the airport directly to the factory where he met the Mexican executives. There were also armed guards with AK assault rifles protecting the factory from inquiring eyes..