Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Lilofan]

I would love for Disney to open. More importantly I do want it to be safe. I know several cast members and their safety is important to me. Florida will be tricky to reopen because of all the tourists from other areas. If there’s another surge it won’t be just in Florida. Those guests will be taking it home with them to their states creating surges there. No one knows what Disney will do, probably not even Disney yet. The best case scenario is all states level off, an effective treatment is found and a vaccine is ready this fall. There’s going to be a risk anytime anything opens. I’m praying for the best case scenario so we can all find a bit of normalcy again.

I sure hope that Disney will have some connections to have enough PPE, hand sanitizer and antiseptic wipes in inventory when parks and resorts reopen. When hospitals and grocery stores are having issues keeping them in stock, will Disney have the same issues? Some hospitals have to reuse masks. Will staff and guests be subjected to the same issues? Disney will surely need to order more soap and paper towels since many guests will wash their hands more than before. Items to wonder about.

 

[Polynesia]

I sure hope that Disney will have some connections to have enough PPE, hand sanitizer and antiseptic wipes in inventory when parks and resorts reopen. When hospitals and grocery stores are having issues keeping them in stock, will Disney have the same issues? Some hospitals have to reuse masks. Will staff and guests be subjected to the same issues? Disney will surely need to order more soap and paper towels since many guests will wash their hands more than before. Items to wonder about.

I agree. I know how hard it is for me to find what I need. It will definitely take a lot of planning for all businesses to reopen safely. Do you think hair salons will reopen? I’ve been trying to figure out how that could work.

 

[TrojanUSC]

I tend to agree with you. I think Disney will be cautious. There seems to be some sentiment that maybe WDW will open before DLR because Disney World is in Florida and Florida’s governor seems more open to a faster opening of things than CA‘s governor. I‘m not sure that will definitely be the case. Nobody in Florida will be making the call on WDW. It will be the execs in CA that call the shots. I think they will likely open the same time unless one or the other state falls behind dramatically.

It's not just the caution but the guidelines put out today seem to be more for optics than reality. Experts don't think we can really solve this until a) there's a vaccine OR b) we have a really intense test/trace/isolate program, which many states seem unable or unwilling to do. Given this, florida may see a dip for two weeks and move to phase 1 of the "reopening plan" in may. However, it's almost certainly going to see a spike back up and now they're back at square one. The date keeps getting pushed further and further.

This plan sounds promising.

It's just trying to put a spin on what we've known all along. Nobody seriously thinks there won't be spikes when we open back up without a lot more time or a robust testing program.

 

[Andrew C]

It's not just the caution but the guidelines put out today seem to be more for optics than reality. Experts don't think we can really solve this until a) there's a vaccine OR b) we have a really intense test/trace/isolate program, which many states seem unable or unwilling to do. Given this, florida may see a dip for two weeks and move to phase 1 of the "reopening plan" in may. However, it's almost certainly going to see a spike back up and now they're back at square one. The date keeps getting pushed further and further.



It's just trying to put a spin on what we've known all along. Nobody seriously thinks there won't be spikes when we open back up without a lot more time or a robust testing program.

I am much more optimistic than you are.

 

[GoofGoof]

I would love for Disney to open. More importantly I do want it to be safe. I know several cast members and their safety is important to me. Florida will be tricky to reopen because of all the tourists from other areas. If there’s another surge it won’t be just in Florida. Those guests will be taking it home with them to their states creating surges there. No one knows what Disney will do, probably not even Disney yet. The best case scenario is all states level off, an effective treatment is found and a vaccine is ready this fall. There’s going to be a risk anytime anything opens. I’m praying for the best case scenario so we can all find a bit of normalcy again.

I agree with this. For a place like WDW to open I think all 50 states probably have to be at a phase 3 level. It’s not good enough to just look at Florida. The last thing anyone wants is a bunch of infected people converging on WDW who infect local CMs and also infect tourists who then bring this back to their home states. Tough call for the Disney execs.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think this may have been posted already, but seems promising:

A coronavirus vaccine could be ready by September, according to a British scientist who is developing one

Professor Sarah Gilbert said a working vaccine by September was "just about possible if everything goes perfectly."

www.businessinsider.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

It's not just the caution but the guidelines put out today seem to be more for optics than reality. Experts don't think we can really solve this until a) there's a vaccine OR b) we have a really intense test/trace/isolate program, which many states seem unable or unwilling to do. Given this, florida may see a dip for two weeks and move to phase 1 of the "reopening plan" in may. However, it's almost certainly going to see a spike back up and now they're back at square one. The date keeps getting pushed further and further.

Yeah, the proposed phases say you only move onto the next phase if the current phase is manageable and there's no 'spiking.' Which means that if things do spike, you may have to retreat to a previous phase. The long awaited ramp up of testing and tracing could speed things up.

And by a phase being manageable... they implicitly mean an acceptable amounts of deaths. And that shouldn't surprise anyone. By letting 'essential workers' work, society has accepted their sacrifice for everyone else's safety and life, especially those who made the ultimate sacrifice. When this is over, they deserve a monument.

And once you pass the point where we're not overwhelming IC units and ventilators (which leads to hard choices of who gets saved and who doesn't), it's only then you start thinking about the consequences of a shut-down economy. Because a shut-down economy forces a another life-and-death choice: The prospect of a worldwide Great Depression II.

A GDII means there will be more deaths from hunger and a lack of healthcare than deaths from COVID. This would hit the poor in our wealthy countries and the poorer countries of the world particularly hard. A GDII could lead to other epidemics to spread again, like Ebola, and no resources left to contain it.

And so, the sacrificing continues. Those not in a high risk group need to start restarting the economy. The proposed Federal guidelines rightly gives different rules for those in the high risk group v. everyone else. The political question is how to aid those in the high risk group to follow the more stringent rules.

As far a WDW goes, if these Federal guidelines are followed (and at least the Governer of FL seems eager to follow Federal guidelines), then WDW wouldn't open until phase 3 (except for maybe Disney Springs and the hotels ahead of the parks).

 

[TrojanUSC]

Yeah, the proposed phases say you only move onto the next phase if the current phase is manageable and there's no 'spiking.' Which means that if things do spike, you may have to retreat to a previous phase. The long awaited ramp up of testing and tracing could speed things up.

And by a phase being manageable... they implicitly mean an acceptable amounts of deaths. And that shouldn't surprise anyone. By letting 'essential workers' work, society has accepted their sacrifice for everyone else's safety and life, especially those who made the ultimate sacrifice. When this is over, they deserve a monument.

And once you pass the point where we're not overwhelming IC units and ventilators (which leads to hard choices of who gets saved and who doesn't), it's only then you start thinking about the consequences of a shut-down economy. Because a shut-down economy forces a another life-and-death choice: The prospect of a worldwide Great Depression II.

A GDII means there will be more deaths from hunger and a lack of healthcare than deaths from COVID. This would hit the poor in our wealthy countries and the poorer countries of the world particularly hard. A GDII could lead to other epidemics to spread again, like Ebola, and no resources left to contain it.

And so, the sacrificing continues. Those not in a high risk group need to start restarting the economy. The proposed Federal guidelines rightly gives different rules for those in the high risk group v. everyone else. The political question is how to aid those in the high risk group to follow the more stringent rules.

As far a WDW goes, if these Federal guidelines are followed (and at least the Governer of FL seems eager to follow Federal guidelines), then WDW wouldn't open until phase 3 (except for maybe Disney Springs and the hotels ahead of the parks).

The issue is that I fear many of these states (Florida included) will relax some measures but not to enough testing/contact tracing to really work to prevent a meaningful spike.

 

[Andrew C]

The issue is that I fear many of these states (Florida included) will relax some measures but not to enough testing/contact tracing to really work to prevent a meaningful spike.

I believe there is some type of testing requirement to move in from one phase to the next. Need to look into that in more detail though.

 

[5thGenTexan]

Downside of the curve last a lot longer than the front side...

This Isn’t the Flattened Curve We Were Promised

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- “Flatten the curve” has become the mantra of the global effort to contain the coronavirus pandemic. It’s a powerful and immensely valuable image, helping people understand why their sacrifices are necessary to save lives.It’s also wrong in a crucial way: The dying won’t be...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[TrojanUSC]

I believe there is some type of testing requirement to move in from one phase to the next. Need to look into that in more detail though.

100% but the federal government has been woefully inept at helping to procure the materials needed and providing states with the financial resources to hire the manpower needed to have a robust testing/tracing/isolating program. So the plan looks nice on paper, but is filled with marketing buzzwords but features a complete lack of specifics or what aid will be provided to accomplish those goals.

 

[DisneyCane]

I agree. I know how hard it is for me to find what I need. It will definitely take a lot of planning for all businesses to reopen safely. Do you think hair salons will reopen? I’ve been trying to figure out how that could work.

Hair salons should be relatively easy. Stylist and customer both wear masks. Use every other chair if they are too close. No waiting in small waiting area. Get a text when it is time to come in.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Downside of the curve last a lot longer than the front side...

This Isn’t the Flattened Curve We Were Promised

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- “Flatten the curve” has become the mantra of the global effort to contain the coronavirus pandemic. It’s a powerful and immensely valuable image, helping people understand why their sacrifices are necessary to save lives.It’s also wrong in a crucial way: The dying won’t be...

finance.yahoo.com

An opinion piece.

On Yahoo Finance about medical epidemiology.

Ranting about shapes of curves being wrong, but not really showing all the curves they're referring to.

Ok...

 

[Nunu]

By letting 'essential workers' work, society has accepted their sacrifice for everyone else's safety and life

This would hit the poor in our wealthy countries and the poorer countries in the world particularly hard.

What a good post. These two phrases hit close to home and address two of my main worries right now.

 

[Jwink]

Major props to your husband, sounds like you got a real hustler there. Good on him.

He works so hard and every job he has LOVES him. He’s got that ‘take the initiative’ attitude and never sits around. He’ll complete the tasks for tomorrow’s board... his crew loves him (they really do but they know they’ll work when he’s the chief)

 

[5thGenTexan]

An opinion piece.

On Yahoo Finance about medical epidemiology.

Ranting about shapes of curves being wrong, but not really showing all the curves they're referring to.

Ok...

Or an observation on how things are actually progressing. As good as most of the guessing going on.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Or an observation on how things are actually progressing. As good as most of the guessing going on.

There's no guess work going on here.

The mock-ups of the curves that the author was referring to (and never bothered to show) were used merely for pedagogical purpose to demonstrate the difference between spiking transmission that would overwhelm healthcare, and a less severe 'peak' in cases. They were *never* meant to model the exact projected epidemiological progress of the disease. That the educational drawing showed a symmetrical rising and falling was never the point of the drawings.

Now you get some Yahoo rattling on about how the models were a lie because the real life trajectory isn't symmetrical.

Someone that clueless shouldn't be allowed to write for publications. And the fact that it's just some person's opinion piece on a finance section of Yahoo... well, that says it all, now, doesn't it?

 

[WDW862]

There's no guess work going on here.

The mock-ups of the curves that the author was referring to (and never bothered to show) were used merely for pedagogical purpose to demonstrate the difference between spiking transmission that would overwhelm healthcare, and a less severe 'peak' in cases. They were *never* meant to model the exact projected epidemiological progress of the disease. That the educational drawing showed a symmetrical rising and falling was never the point of the drawings.

Now you get some Yahoo rattling on about how the models were a lie because the real life trajectory isn't symmetrical.

Someone that clueless shouldn't be allowed to write for publications. And the fact that it's just some person's opinion piece on a finance section of Yahoo... well, that says it all, now, doesn't it?

I'm surprised that Yahoo is still even a thing.

 

[trainplane3]

I'm surprised that Yahoo is still even a thing.

Verizon bought Yahoo a few years ago meaning:

Verizon completes its $4.48 billion acquisition of Yahoo; Marissa Mayer leaves with $23 million

Yahoo's assets will be combined with AOL brands under a new subsidiary called Oath, headed by ex-AOL CEO Tim Armstrong.

www.cnbc.com

It has to stay around so it doesn't look like they lit $4.48 billion on fire.

*we all know Yahoo should've died years ago*

 

[Nubs70]

Downside of the curve last a lot longer than the front side...

This Isn’t the Flattened Curve We Were Promised

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- “Flatten the curve” has become the mantra of the global effort to contain the coronavirus pandemic. It’s a powerful and immensely valuable image, helping people understand why their sacrifices are necessary to save lives.It’s also wrong in a crucial way: The dying won’t be...

finance.yahoo.com

This is they don't understand what flattening the curve means. They naively assumed a normal distribution. Instead flattening the curve should take into account the area under the curve. A flattened curve is a curve with a reduced amplitude and extended frequency. That means, with all things being equal, the Covid19 flattened curve with have just as many total fatalities but distributed over a longer time.