DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
This. This. Did I say this enough?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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willtravel
Well-Known Member
The thing is even the scientific community does not have an agreement on any of this. SO many varied opinions. I as a commoner just eat my chocolate chip cookies and wait and see.
The company my husband works for is trying to find non contact thermometers for a manufacturing company. Nothing to be found till mid May maybe. Then don't want them then. He warned them mid March to order. Didn't want to spend the money.
The company my husband works for is trying to find non contact thermometers for a manufacturing company. Nothing to be found till mid May maybe. Then don't want them then. He warned them mid March to order. Didn't want to spend the money.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
For the record, which economists are proposing re-opening, in the way regular people are envisioning re-opening?
I've seen a lot of forum people, Facebook people, business owners (who are not economists), pundits, and politicians say one thing. I've seen other pundits and politicians say something else. I've seen a few things from economists that are trying to walk a line between saying things that a specific person, might like to hear so they aren't shut out of the conversation. Cautioning that we are in unprecedented times, they don't really have a clue what is going to happen, we are all learning as we go, and if we do this wrong we will end up with an even bigger economic problem on our hands. The proposals they have been willing to give, are tiny slivers of re-opening (not anywhere what people want to see) and an abundance of caution of what we are risking by moving too fast, too soon. Mostly, economists seem to be just trying to get a picture of where we even are. Recognition that there are some political hot potatoes, unique to the US, that will complicate things.
I've seen a lot of forum people, Facebook people, business owners (who are not economists), pundits, and politicians say one thing. I've seen other pundits and politicians say something else. I've seen a few things from economists that are trying to walk a line between saying things that a specific person, might like to hear so they aren't shut out of the conversation. Cautioning that we are in unprecedented times, they don't really have a clue what is going to happen, we are all learning as we go, and if we do this wrong we will end up with an even bigger economic problem on our hands. The proposals they have been willing to give, are tiny slivers of re-opening (not anywhere what people want to see) and an abundance of caution of what we are risking by moving too fast, too soon. Mostly, economists seem to be just trying to get a picture of where we even are. Recognition that there are some political hot potatoes, unique to the US, that will complicate things.
Nash's game theory was nothing new under the sun. And the film woefully misrepresented the man's actual work.
I only used the movie to explain the Economic School of Rational Expectations. The movie does a good job of explaining it in a way most people can understand.
Legal liability. That's an invisible regulation, far more important than government.
If they open when they know it's not truly safe, they open themselves to massive liability from guests and employees who might get sick. They likely need approval from their reinsurance companies before they can open. They aren't going to open without insurance.
They won't re-open until their own experts believe it can be done safely. (At least to the point where they can credibly say it is reasonably safe).
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Should have more info coming out now from various sources, because now they've made it "official." The original thing that prompted me to post said ND was in, but they are not as yet official, but Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana are part of it now.
Midwest governors form COVID coalition
Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his regional colleagues are working together to judge when best to start easing stay-at-home restrictions and reopen their states’ economies.
www.chicagobusiness.com
I like the one tweet mentioned, the US is turning into the football conferences. There is probably a lot more truth there than we would would want, when talking government.
"Old way" is 10+ years to develop a vaccine. 18 months is lightening speed. But there is one vaccine that actually might be ready in about 8 months.
And skipping testing would be a nightmare. Imagine giving a vaccine to 300 million Americans... and then discovering it causes brain cancer in 50% of recipients.
zengoth
Well-Known Member
Not saying this wrong, but i am trying to wrap my head around it - every store will have a line to get in - with folks six feet apart, right next to another line of people for another store 6 feet apart - for every store and restaraunt and kiosk - lines into the parking lot, in the heat and the rain. I know, if folks really need to go shopping, this is what they'll agree to do, but I think most people will just leave and eventually, this effects these stores' bottom line over time.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
By the time a vaccine is widely available (if at all) many will have already had and recovered from this so you would have to have anti-body testing on a wide scale and that the presence of anti-bodies conveys immunity for a long time. You are not going to have to vaccinate everyone (hopefully)
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Couldn’t that happen anyway after 18 months or even 5 years? How many drugs were used for years then recalled? I thin’ they need to do what J&J is suggesting here:
J&J Starts Production Of COVID-19 Vaccine, Aims For 1 Billion Doses
Johnson & Johnson and the U.S. government are rushing to produce a COVID-19 vaccine they hope can be used by early 2021.
www.ibtimes.com
As the first round of trials begin start to ramp up production and have the vaccine ready so as soon as it’s approved you hit the ground running. We can’t put all our eggs in one basket either. Do it with multiple vaccines and hope one or more pan out.
edit: several makers of the vaccines in development are saying they will be ready for emergency use in the fall. If it’s safe to use for people it’s safe to use for people. Ramp up production and start vaccinating.
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MickeyLuv'r
Well-Known Member
Er, the last time I quoted from reliable sources, like NIH, you may recall that things got a little crazy 'round here, but at the risk of sounding slightly repetitive:
Internet search engines are awesome! NIH and NIAID publish information online. (As it happens, I can report that I recently tested to see how long it takes to find up the NIH web page! It took less than 5 seconds! Who knew? Crazy!)
If anyone here is interested in knowing more about why 18 months is predicted, and why that is about as fast as it can be done, there are a number of reasons, and much of that explanation is readily available online. So please look there if anyone wants to know more than what I'm about to post, but here's my rough take:
In the-before-times, there were other nasty little infections in the world. Sometimes the media reported on them. Sometimes the media didn't. With or without media attention, research on those nasty little infections quietly continued. Some of that research focused on vaccines. Some scientists thought if there were some infectious diseases, and the human population was growing, and there was even a chance the climate might be changing, that we might experience more nasty little infections and - get this - it might be helpful to try to be prepared! Crazy, right? In long-before-times, doctors sometimes rushed vaccines that weren't properly tested, and bad things happened to people who took the bad vaccines. Some of them were children, and they died in ways that were very bad. So they developed safety rules. In the-just-before times, they made great progress, but they also agreed they would run tests on any new vaccines they created for any new infections.
Here's the even crazier part! These researchers received funding! and the $ amount of the funding gets published every year in a report that the public can read online.
P.S. Please ignore any typos in the information above. Phew! Hope that covers everything!
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
Assuming that social-distancing restrictions have been lifted (and I can’t see how the parks could operate at all before they are), why would anyone mind sitting next to a stranger? I certainly wouldn’t.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think we will get more details soon but it sounds like the federal requirements to start re-opening will have 3 phases. Phase 1 still restricting public gatherings of more than 10 people, phase 2 no more than 50 and phase 3 is back to mostly normal. Phase 1 could start as early as May 1 but will be up to states. I would assume there’s no way to open WDW until “phase 3” bjt there’s no guidelines how long that will be.
www.documentcloud.org
DocumentCloud
www.documentcloud.org
Federal recommendations are out:
www.documentcloud.org
They are somewhat vague but they are consistent with other experts I've seen and read.
Following the guidelines, it suggests Disney *could* re-open with modified procedures by late July, at the earliest.
Essentially, Disney cannot theoretically open until you hit Phase 3. And even in Phase 3, you would need some fairly significant modifications.
But basically... Florida would need 2 weeks of decline to go to phase 1. They aren't declining much yet. So maybe you hit phase 1 by mid May.
IF cases continue to decline in phase 1 for 2 weeks.... Which is far from a sure bet, then you can go to the next phase. So the earliest you would go to phase 2, would be after 2 weeks. But in all honesty, it's very likely that there won't be sufficient drops to go to the next phase.
Let's say you hit Phase 2 by early/mid June --- Far far from a sure bet. If numbers go back up, you can quickly find yourself right back at the starting line. But if you get to phase 2, and numbers continue to decline... then maybe phase 3 by July.
But Disney can't re-open on 1 days notice. And you won't know if you can go into phase 3, until at least 2 weeks into phase 2.
So assuming by early July, they determine it's safe to go to Phase 3 in Florida... then maybe by late July/early August, Disney re-opens.
That's basically the optimistic best-case scenario.
DocumentCloud
www.documentcloud.org
They are somewhat vague but they are consistent with other experts I've seen and read.
Following the guidelines, it suggests Disney *could* re-open with modified procedures by late July, at the earliest.
Essentially, Disney cannot theoretically open until you hit Phase 3. And even in Phase 3, you would need some fairly significant modifications.
But basically... Florida would need 2 weeks of decline to go to phase 1. They aren't declining much yet. So maybe you hit phase 1 by mid May.
IF cases continue to decline in phase 1 for 2 weeks.... Which is far from a sure bet, then you can go to the next phase. So the earliest you would go to phase 2, would be after 2 weeks. But in all honesty, it's very likely that there won't be sufficient drops to go to the next phase.
Let's say you hit Phase 2 by early/mid June --- Far far from a sure bet. If numbers go back up, you can quickly find yourself right back at the starting line. But if you get to phase 2, and numbers continue to decline... then maybe phase 3 by July.
But Disney can't re-open on 1 days notice. And you won't know if you can go into phase 3, until at least 2 weeks into phase 2.
So assuming by early July, they determine it's safe to go to Phase 3 in Florida... then maybe by late July/early August, Disney re-opens.
That's basically the optimistic best-case scenario.
WISH4EE@WDW
Member
I think we will get more details soon but it sounds like the federal requirements to start re-opening will have 3 phases. Phase 1 still restricting public gatherings of more than 10 people, phase 2 no more than 50 and phase 3 is back to mostly normal. Phase 1 could start as early as May 1 but will be up to states. I would assume there’s no way to open WDW until “phase 3” bjt there’s no guidelines how long that will be.
DocumentCloud
Nitpick: it might be worth while changing "requirements" to "recommendations".
Not in a million years. The CDC guidance will still be in place for gatherings of 50 or 100 people. Also with most health experts saying reopening is a massive mistake without proper testing and a process to address hotspots, Disney will be cautious. Given all of this it’s likely many of these red leaning states, even Florida, are going to see a surge of cases and deaths. Some might even have to shut down again. Too many variables.
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