Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't know if they have "decided" very much. Over the next couple of weeks, states will start laying out their reopening plans. Disney is somewhat at their mercy.

Here is what seems pretty clear -- They aren't just going to re-open with normal procedures (or even close to normalcy) on June 1st.

It's pretty funny, all the people getting upset about the possibility of temperature checks or masks. A mask is now mandatory for a walk down the street in Manhattan.
There is no way that Disney opens in the next 4-8 weeks with just minimal safety precautions. More likely, re-opening is even further away... and more likely, there will be major adjustments for a "new normal." If Disney decides the necessary safety precautions just aren't feasible, then they really *might* (not saying it will happen, just a possibility that I'm sure is on the table) just shutter the park for 6-18 months.
Operate as a much smaller company for the rest of fiscal 2020.

I don’t see it as a situation of Disney “waiting for the thumbs up” from some Governor...certainly not DC...

Here in the US they have the “yin and yang” of governors to deal with as is...

This is a deeper, unique socio-economic thing going on here.

I agree they probably have more of a “wait and see” approach. But Disney is a huge conglomerate leaking oil by the minute. That money isn’t coming back and their stock will begin to tank...
They have to have several drastic plans/outlook in place already...and will adjust accordingly

 

[Polynesia]

Here’s who will guide Orange County in reopening businesses

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings announced on Wednesday he has taken the first steps to explore reopening some businesses in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.clickorlando.com

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

If they close colleges that long then the price of education needs to drop as it is no where close to the same level of education. I have watched kids now do it and it is a joke. We have to get the kids back in school..... This is a top priority they have to figure out how to do it... Kids have got to be in school....

Definitely your opinion. I did college online and did significantly better than ever going in person. Everyone learns differently, but to say that the only way to learn is in-person is not the case for everyone. It makes no sense to have thousands of kids on a campus (for college) that could potentially cause an outbreak. Could you imagine the stories if Ohio State or Harvard suffered an outbreak at their campus? Everyone's going to have to get better at distance learning, on both sides, and this summer is going to be key for educators and administrators to start figuring out what that looks like because the path that's been laid out thus far really points to schools not re-opening.

I can’t even imagine how they do an operational restart?

Limiting who and where people are coming from makes complete sense...but that doesn’t solve the problem that you need a large amount of staffing to open anything. It’s not a 1:1 ratio.

So then you bleed more cash to “open”??

...maybe. Interesting times for sure.

Disney is going to have to staff similar to how they staff now, but with a fraction of the guests. I definitely think we might just see MK open up for a couple of months with the MK resorts. WDW as it is needs a massive number of guests to support the staff they would need to open the entire resort and that runs counter to what they have to do.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here’s who will guide Orange County in reopening businesses

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings announced on Wednesday he has taken the first steps to explore reopening some businesses in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.clickorlando.com

Planning is nice...but without far more testing and tracking, opening Orlando is pointless. You would be opening for those who are far more likely to spread it.

This is a public problem that is going to have to be addressed on that level...not a “private” business one.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Definitely your opinion. I did college online and did significantly better than ever going in person. Everyone learns differently, but to say that the only way to learn is in-person is not the case for everyone. It makes no sense to have thousands of kids on a campus (for college) that could potentially cause an outbreak. Could you imagine the stories if Ohio State or Harvard suffered an outbreak at their campus? Everyone's going to have to get better at distance learning, on both sides, and this summer is going to be key for educators and administrators to start figuring out what that looks like because the path that's been laid out thus far really points to schools not re-opening.



Disney is going to have to staff similar to how they staff now, but with a fraction of the guests. I definitely think we might just see MK open up for a couple of months with the MK resorts. WDW as it is needs a massive number of guests to support the staff they would need to open the entire resort and that runs counter to what they have to do.

Agree and agree

1. Schools will be transitioning away from brick and Mortar anyway...that has been predicted and will now accelerate. It’s just too expensive to operate bloated campuses and the funding will not be there

2. Disney will have to lose a lot of overhead money to restart...which means limited restarts and slow ramp up to capacity are major financial issues for them. Last I checked the stock was still listed on the market.

 

[Polynesia]

Planning is nice...but without far more testing and tracking, opening Orlando is pointless. You would be opening for those who are far more likely to spread it.

This is a public problem that is going to have to be addressed on that level...not a “private” business one.

I would think both have to be considered. It’s a delicate balance between the two. I’m glad they’re at the planning stage. Other states are doing that, also.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would think both have to be considered. It’s a delicate balance between the two. I’m glad they’re at the planning stage. Other states are doing that, also.

True...but I don’t think it’s that “balanced”. A second flash due to reopening would be catastrophic.

The good news is it seems the medical and financial people seem to be in agreement on it.

 

[Polynesia]

True...but I don’t think it’s that “balanced”. A second flash due to reopening would be catastrophic.

The good news is it seems the medical and financial people seem to be in agreement on it.

Will be worth noting what happens to the other countries that have slowly opened before us. It appears certain states will be opening sooner because they have few cases. This will be another group to watch. I’m hoping at least Disney Springs opens in the first group. Would be very easy to social distance there.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Agree and agree

1. Schools will be transitioning away from brick and Mortar anyway...that has been predicted and will now accelerate. It’s just too expensive to operate bloated campuses and the funding will not be there

2. Disney will have to lose a lot of overhead money to restart...which means limited restarts and slow ramp up to capacity are major financial issues for them. Last I checked the stock was still listed on the market.

1) Exactly. Running a campus for 30-40K students at the collegiate level is beyond expensive and is a large reason why costs have skyrocketed (as well as increasing the amenities because these colleges are competing with one another for students). Imagine what you can do with some of those spaces now if you only need a fraction of the space for classes (labs, etc.) than before. For students in elementary-high school it becomes more difficult because of the lack of parents at home for some kids and needing that school, but at the same time, my kid is doing better with the distance learning than he ever did in class. One of our school districts has built an additional high school in case they need it one day. That's money just wasted.

2) The cost to ramp back up is going to be tough and they're going to take losses just to keep everything going. I have no idea how many people are on Disney property at any given time (I imagine north of 100K), but if your average per cap per person on property is $100 (and we all know it's much more than that) and now you have a cap of 10K people on property with the same per cap, it's $1 million in revenues. If Disney was spending $2 million a day on labor (I have no idea), they may be able to cut it in half to focus just on MK resorts, but they're just breaking even and then you have to factor in COGS and other expenditures. The profit margins will be gone and it's going to be a struggle for them to net anything.

 

[Mr Ferret 75]

Will be worth noting what happens to the other countries that have slowly opened before us. It appears certain states will be opening sooner because they have few cases. This will be another group to watch. I’m hoping at least Disney Springs opens in the first group. Would be very easy to social distance there.

I like the idea in theory but lot of people have problem social distancing at the supermarket.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Will be worth noting what happens to the other countries that have slowly opened before us. It appears certain states will be opening sooner because they have few cases. This will be another group to watch. I’m hoping at least Disney Springs opens in the first group. Would be very easy to social distance there.

The thing about those 10 states with fewer cases is that they have few people and nobody goes to them...except for Hawaii.

Not California or Florida at all.

We’re gonna see. I think anyone expecting Disney to open up and “take a chance” at all really doesn’t know the animal they’re hunting.

It’s been a month and people are stir crazy. But they won’t risk their mega money entertainment complexes for a month...or two...or three...or six.

Let’s see how it plays.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I like the idea in theory but lot of people have problem social distancing at the supermarket.

And the “restarts” have not gone all too well.

And that’s for necessities...not amusement parks

 

[GoofGoof]

Here’s who will guide Orange County in reopening businesses

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings announced on Wednesday he has taken the first steps to explore reopening some businesses in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.clickorlando.com

Always good to plan. Worst case scenario is you have to delay. The only thing that’s not certain is if the local authorities will have a say. Didn’t the governor of Florida say he would implement his own plan and that would supersede any local plans. What’s even more muddy for Disney is the parent company is based in CA so if that state is more conservative with opening things up will they open WDW and not DLR or will they keep them together even if that means WDW could open earlier based on FL requirements.

 

[Polynesia]

The thing about those 10 states with fewer cases is that they have few people and nobody goes to them...except for Hawaii.

Not California or Florida at all.

We’re gonna see. I think anyone expecting Disney to open up and “take a chance” at all really doesn’t know the animal they’re hunting.

It’s been a month and people are stir crazy. But they won’t risk their mega money entertainment complexes for a month...or two...or three...or six.

Let’s see how it plays.

I agree. There are so many variables to consider.

 

[Polynesia]

Always good to plan. Worst case scenario is you have to delay. The only thing that’s not certain is if the local authorities will have a say. Didn’t the governor of Florida say he would implement his own plan and that would supersede any local plans. What’s even more muddy for Disney is the parent company is based in CA so if that state is more conservative with opening things up will they open WDW and not DLR or will they keep them together even if that means WDW could open earlier based on FL requirements.

You bring up a good point about California. It’s possible Florida opens up first. Would be a good test run for California. The businesses should listen to the governor for guidance. I’ll bet Disney will be in the state panel, also, along with Universal. Plans are good. They need to be ready when they get the green light.

 

[Polynesia]

I like the idea in theory but lot of people have problem social distancing at the supermarket.

If people can’t social distance nothing will be able to open. There’s a risk in every single environment you’d be in. Where I live I see the social distancing taken seriously. I realize that’s not the case in other areas though.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You bring up a good point about California. It’s possible Florida opens up first. Would be a good test run for California. The businesses should listen to the governor for guidance. I’ll bet Disney will be in the state panel, also, along with Universal. Plans are good. They need to be ready when they get the green light.

I COMPLETELY disagree...I trust California - even with its complexity - to handle this way better than Florida. How much proof of bad/good management do we need?

Opinions vary.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If people can’t social distance nothing will be able to open. There’s a risk in every single environment you’d be in. Where I live I see the social distancing taken seriously. I realize that’s not the case in other areas though.

People will do it or else? Or things have to reopen no matter what?

We’re crossing the streams here.

 

[Jrb1979]

What a difference in 2 countries. Here in Canada they are saying it's going to be weeks til they lift some restrictions and it will be a very slow process til there is a way to treat this.

 

[Polynesia]

I COMPLETELY disagree...I trust California - even with its complexity - to handle this way better than Florida. How much proof of bad/good management do we need?

Opinions vary.

I don’t. I’ve live there and was not at all impressed. Have you lived in California having first hand knowledge? Let’s agree to disagree