Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

Back then, they wanted to bring the parks up to full capacity as quickly as possible. That is not the case now. They do not want the parks to be crowded (or will not be allowed to have them be crowded) due to an attempt to maintain social distancing. Then they will most likely start gradually increasing crowd size until they are back to "normal" or perhaps the new normal. We do not know when that will be, or what it will entail.

Will be interesting if they go with a few resorts at a time approach. Maybe a few Values, Moderates and Deluxes along with DVC members as the first phase.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Will be interesting if they go with a few resorts at a time approach. Maybe a few Values, Moderates and Deluxes along with DVC members as the first phase.

I can’t even imagine how they do an operational restart?

Limiting who and where people are coming from makes complete sense...but that doesn’t solve the problem that you need a large amount of staffing to open anything. It’s not a 1:1 ratio.

So then you bleed more cash to “open”??

...maybe. Interesting times for sure.

 

[Horizons '83]

I can’t even imagine how they do an operational restart?

Limiting who and where people are coming from makes complete sense...but that doesn’t solve the problem that you need a large amount of staffing to open anything. It’s not a 1:1 ratio.

So then you bleed more cash to “open”??

...maybe. Interesting times for sure.

Oh for sure. I'd imagine that it would start up with 1 park at a time that would open, even then at much less capacity. With only a few QS and TS opened, maybe even without all attractions open and certainly no entertainment (parades, fireworks, etc). It would be watered down, purposefully.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

But why discount if you cannot have enough people in to make money? That is the question every business is going to ask that is open to the public.... So retail entertainment etc how open do you need to be how much of your occupancy do you need to use to make it worth while to be open! Not just cover cost but make a profit. As that is what business is all about.

Since I have the burden of being intimately aware of the 9/11 era thinking...I have to point out it that there was a completely different management philosophy then...and the clientele was more closely identified with the “late 20th century”, than whatever “this” century is yielding now.

Back then, they wanted to bring the parks up to full capacity as quickly as possible. That is not the case now. They do not want the parks to be crowded (or will not be allowed to have them be crowded) due to an attempt to maintain social distancing. Then they will most likely start gradually increasing crowd size until they are back to "normal" or perhaps the new normal. We do not know when that will be, or what it will entail.

Agree,agree and agree.
With that being said they still are going to need people visiting with whatever rules and guidelines are in place. I don’t believe that charging the prices they did before this happened, with, let’s just say 50-60 % of everything they have running, and those under the guidelines as well, will be a good idea. Maybe something in the middle? Slight discount to draw some in?
My grand mom would always tell me years ago when she was around that “ little pigs get fed, big pigs get slaughtered “. Maybe a little money coming in is better then keeping them away? Ease in. Just rambling here.

 

[Lilofan]

Due to this corona pandemic, anti-anxiety medication sales are up significantly according to media reporting. Hopefully no one overdoses on Xanax.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Agree,agree and agree.
With that being said they still are going to need people visiting with whatever rules and guidelines are in place. I don’t believe that charging the prices they did before this happened, with, let’s just say 50-60 % of everything they have running, and those under the guidelines as well, will be a good idea. Maybe something in the middle? Slight discount to draw some in?
My grand mom would always tell me years ago when she was around that “ little pigs get fed, big pigs get slaughtered “. Maybe a little money coming in is better then keeping them away? Ease in. Just rambling here.

I’m sure we will see tons and tons of posts about how Disney will “want” smaller crowds.

Problem is That is incorrect and always will be. They operate on mass crowds to generate the walkaway profits and have for 45 years. That’s how it works. They need bulk...which leads me to believe they will delay the reopening for a long time.

For ten years people claimed “they want smaller crowds”. No they did not...they just wanted larger crowds to be trained to pay more so they tolerated flat and dips in the short term.
Nothing has changed...they’ll want the places packed ASAP.

Due to this corona pandemic, anti-anxiety medication sales are up significantly according to media reporting. Hopefully no one overdoses on Xanax.

Don’t worry...a martini with windex swapped for the vermouth will give you the same effect

 

[gmajew]

Any truth to them being closed now through July?

 

[peter11435]

Any truth to them being closed now through July?

No truth to it being official. However it’s still likely.

 

[GoofGoof]

Any truth to them being closed now through July?

So far it’s just the trip advisor thing that said through 7/30 and it’s still like that so maybe there’s some smoke there. If not true I would think someone from Disney would likely have asked TripAdvisor to remove the note.

 

[gmajew]

So far it’s just the trip advisor thing that said through 7/30 and it’s still like that so maybe there’s some smoke there. If not true I would think someone from Disney would likely have asked TripAdvisor to remove the note.

Yeah I would agree... I have my trip planned middle of June but have not cancelled because I want them to do it so I have a leg to stand on to get my points banked.

 

[peter11435]

So far it’s just the trip advisor thing that said through 7/30 and it’s still like that so maybe there’s some smoke there. If not true I would think someone from Disney would likely have asked TripAdvisor to remove the note.

Given all of the uncertainty surrounding this event I don’t think Disney would publicly commit to another 3.5 months. Certainly that’s a strong possibility but they are never going to make anything more than a few weeks official. A lot can change in 3.5 months.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re confusing things. It’s not merely a choice between re-open and lockdown.

Newsom, Cuomo, et al, recognize we can’t stay in total lockdown for long.
That doesn’t mean we go back to crowded theme parks, concerts, etc, etc.

Yes, Newsom laid out conditions for a gradual phased re-opening. Cuomo has talking about gradually opening a valve.
To get that valve completely re-opened— where you can stand in a crowded queue at Disney waiting for FOP for 3 hours... those are the types of things that will come last.

Nobody is saying a total lockdown for 8 months. But mass gatherings will be at least a few months away. With the possibility of much longer.

Nobody know for sure — if you start opening the valve... and it’s June/July and you aren’t getting spikes... maybe you start opening places like Disney in August/ September.
On the other hand, if partial re-openings are accompanied by massive spikes, then places like Disney will have to wait much much longer.

My own guess — and it’s little more than a guess — Disney will partially re-open in late summer/fall with significant capacity and attendance restrictions.

I still think July 4 is the absolute earliest date...and that may take an “act of god”...ie some type of precipitous decline In cases ahead of predictions.

But that also means limited parks, transportation, likely no international travel, no water parks, etc etc etc.

They may have already decided to bag the summer to depress crowds upon reopening. But the fall is a can of worms too.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah I would agree... I have my trip planned middle of June but have not cancelled because I want them to do it so I have a leg to stand on to get my points banked.

I’m in the same boat for August. If I cancel I lose points I borrowed from 2021 because I can’t put them back. If they cancel on me they automatically put them back to 2021. Either way I will lose a few points carried over from 2019. Simce my use year is March I can still bank my 2020 points into 2021 in August.

Selfishly I really hope the open date isn’t August 1st. I’d rather not be there a few weeks after opening. I’d rather just defer to next summer when hopefully a vaccine will be around.

 

[gmajew]

I’m in the same boat for August. If I cancel I lose points I borrowed from 2021 because I can’t put them back. If they cancel on me they automatically put them back to 2021. Either way I will lose a few points carried over from 2019. Simce my use year is March I can still bank my 2020 points into 2021 in August.

Selfishly I really hope the open date isn’t August 1st. I’d rather not be there a few weeks after opening. I’d rather just defer to next summer when hopefully a vaccine will be around.

Yeah it stinks.... I don't want to lose the points it is one of the best weeks of my year every year so I want to be able to take advantage of them as often as possible. My kids are getting older and one will be off to college soon losing these family trips stinks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah I would agree... I have my trip planned middle of June but have not cancelled because I want them to do it so I have a leg to stand on to get my points banked.

Do not cancel...let them do it. I know two people who are fighting with DVC daily about getting points back.

They were pretty generous at first about waiving the Banking rules...but I think they see the size of that problem now and are trying to put up more of a hard line.

DVC was never designed for a
Closure...it’s just not in the math

 

[PeoplemoverTTA]

Thought it would be nice to share some positive news in this thread --

My brother in law came home from the hospital yesterday 18 days after first showing symptoms of COVID-19 and 9 days after he went into the hospital and was confirmed positive. He had a wide range of up and down days in the hospital, but thankfully was able to come home after successfully staying off his oxygen for several days and regaining his strength.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Do not cancel...let them do it. I know two people who are fighting with DVC daily about getting points back.

They were pretty generous at first about waiving the Banking rules...but I think they see the size of that problem now and are trying to put up more of a hard line.

DVC was never designed for a
Closure...it’s just not in the math

Not DVC-related but with job loss on the horizon, we're rethinking our October trip whether or not the place has reopened (and/or we feel safe enough to travel). We simply won't have the cash to burn.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not DVC-related but with job loss on the horizon, we're rethinking our October trip whether or not the place has reopened (and/or we feel safe enough to travel). We simply won't have the cash to burn.

I’d hold out cancelling that until you are at the deadline to get a full refund. You never know if they may “grease the wheels” out of necessity

 

[Parker in NYC]

I’d hold out cancelling that until you are at the deadline to get a full refund. You never know if they may “grease the wheels” out of necessity

Fingers crossed.

 

[havoc315]

I still think July 4 is the absolute earliest date...and that may take an “act of god”...ie some type of precipitous decline In cases ahead of predictions.

But that also means limited parks, transportation, likely no international travel, no water parks, etc etc etc.

They may have already decided to bag the summer to depress crowds upon reopening. But the fall is a can of worms too.

I don't know if they have "decided" very much. Over the next couple of weeks, states will start laying out their reopening plans. Disney is somewhat at their mercy.

Here is what seems pretty clear -- They aren't just going to re-open with normal procedures (or even close to normalcy) on June 1st.

It's pretty funny, all the people getting upset about the possibility of temperature checks or masks. A mask is now mandatory for a walk down the street in Manhattan.
There is no way that Disney opens in the next 4-8 weeks with just minimal safety precautions. More likely, re-opening is even further away... and more likely, there will be major adjustments for a "new normal." If Disney decides the necessary safety precautions just aren't feasible, then they really *might* (not saying it will happen, just a possibility that I'm sure is on the table) just shutter the park for 6-18 months.
Operate as a much smaller company for the rest of fiscal 2020.