Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

You contact trace by finding those who are sick then testing everyone they came into contact with (as many as you can), thereby theoretically catching the asymptomatic carriers.

This is not that much different than a scenario that plays out every day across the country (thankfully in much less common numbers now): Someone tests positive for HIV. They provide a list of their sexual history/contacts. The local health department calls or sends a letter saying someone you were recently intimate with has tested positive, please proceed to the nearest testing place. These people aren't going to get tested because they have full blown AIDS, or any symptoms at all, its because they are told they could have been exposed. The COVID-19 version of that would involve thousands of people and mobile testing sites, rather than a few overworked people in a county health department.

If an asymptomatic patient is "patient 0" there is nobody to trace because "patient 0" had no reason to get tested. Even if an antibody test later on show that they were previously infected, there is no way to know when.

Quarantine and contact tracing only works if "patient 0" is symptomatic. People get HIV tests without symptoms if they participate in high risk behavior. Asymptomatic people aren't going to run out and get tested for COVID-19 every couple of days just in case they are an asymptomatic carrier even if you had the testing capacity to do it.

 

[GoofGoof]

I've seen lots of conversations about how back furlough means you get your job back. That's not the case though. You're essentially laid off under a fancier term that allows the company to bring you back without having to essentially go through the onboarding process. There are a lot of furloughed people, including those who will be impacted next week by the Disney furloughs, who will never go back to work for the company that has furloughed them. In addition, the unemployment numbers include those who are furloughed. It's a nice thought that furloughed employees will get their jobs back. There are no guarantees there whatsoever and those people need to act like they don't have a job because if they sit back and wait for Disney to call them back, there's a good chance that call will never happen. They need to be looking for a new job now.

In most cases furloughed employees are receiving benefits and keep their seniority and position If that position comes back. If the job never comes back or doesn’t come back relatively quickly the employees will go from furloughed to laid off. These companies won’t continue to pay benefits indefinitely. The only reason to furlough someone as opposed to lay off is if you think its temporary.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Where? The professional actors, techs. Stage managers and musicians who have recently been furloughed now have to compete with all of Broadaway and Equity National Tours. Any professional acting gigs that are able to happen in the near future have a crazy amount of competitition for those jobs. That’s using one industry as an example. It will be the same with everything.

The sad reality is they may not be able to go back to their jobs for quite some time and should be prepared to do something outside of their chosen industry. I work as a Project Manager. If I couldn't get a job as a PM because the competition was too much then I would have to go do something else. Same with if I couldn't make the wages I was making before. I'm going to need to bring something in to keep the lights on and the roof over my head.

With the way things are going, unless there is another economic stimulus, people are going to have to make some tough choices when it comes to their next job.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Just my opinion. It’s a little tin foil hatish. I do nothing that interesting and have nothing to hide. I bet the average person doesn’t realize they already have the same information any time you allow location access with an app or use your phone GPS for directions.

The system proposed by Apple and Google does not even use your location. The plan is to use Bluetooth LE to determine if another device gets within approximately six feet of your device for a determined amount of time. If those conditions are met, the devices tell each other that they were close but it does not say where that close contact occurred. Then, if you test positive and somehow verify that your device would push out a notification to the other devices it was near.

 

[TrojanUSC]

If an asymptomatic patient is "patient 0" there is nobody to trace because "patient 0" had no reason to get tested. Even if an antibody test later on show that they were previously infected, there is no way to know when.

Quarantine and contact tracing only works if "patient 0" is symptomatic. People get HIV tests without symptoms if they participate in high risk behavior. Asymptomatic people aren't going to run out and get tested for COVID-19 every couple of days just in case they are an asymptomatic carrier even if you had the testing capacity to do it.

Honestly. I don't know where you get your logic. The goal is not to eliminate the virus all together - that simply can't be done. It's to limit the spread and we can do that via this method. There's a reason every epidemiologist and public policy expert thinks its the only real way to go until there's a vaccine. Again, where are your credentials to say they are incorrect?

 

[TrojanUSC]

So it's an assumption. It probably will be the same overworked employees, except now that list is significantly larger for them to track per person and work through with each person in contact.

It would not be the same overworked employees. There would be no feasible way. There will have to be a whole new process in place, from technology too staffing.

 

[GhostHost1000]

saw the surgeon general remarks but social distancing just doesn’t work in a disney theme park and using transportation - we also touch alot of things that everyone else does too. There’s no way to hide from this even today when we go to the grocery stores or gas station etc.

 

[marni1971]

I've seen lots of conversations about how back furlough means you get your job back. That's not the case though. You're essentially laid off ..

Is US furlough not the same as UK furlough?

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

In most cases furloughed employees are receiving benefits and keep their seniority and position If that position comes back. If the job never comes back or doesn’t come back relatively quickly the employees will go from furloughed to laid off. These companies won’t continue to pay benefits indefinitely. The only reason to furlough someone as opposed to lay off is if you think its temporary.

And someone like Disney doesn't know what they will need until it's closer to time. If I was working at WDW, I would be prepared to find a new job on the off chance that the parks don't re-open this year (which I think would cause Disney to just lay off everyone) or don't open by the end of the boosted unemployment insurance.

 

[GoofGoof]

It’s one thing for a phone to track your location. It’s another for a phone to track your health status, which sick people you’ve been around, if you SHOULD be in quarantine, if you’re NOT in quarantine (will it alert the authorities?), if you’re vaccinated, if you’re not vaccinated, if you are considered a threat to those around you (again, will this alert authorities?)

It sounds benign enough - perfect, an app that lets me know if I was near a sick person. But how it could easily be the first step toward a police state, and it wouldn’t take many more steps beyond the invention of the app to get us there.

[/tinfoil hat speech]

The app as I’ve seen it described does none of what you described. It’s not alerting authorities, it’s not tracking who is in quarantine or who is vaccinated. It’s a simple locational tracker. When you set it up your phone is assigned a unique identifier which has no personal info on it. You are person 12345. As time goes on the tool collects all of the other people person 12345 has come in contact with. If one of the random people you crossed paths with changes their status to tested positive then you are alerted and it’s up to you to go and get tested and isolate yourself. If you are positive you would change your status to positive in the app and the same would happen for others. All the app does is take the place of manual contact tracing where they ask someone who tested positive to list out everyone they have come in contact with and then the health department contacts each person and tells them they should get tested.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

The sad reality is they may not be able to go back to their jobs for quite some time and should be prepared to do something outside of their chosen industry. I work as a Project Manager. If I couldn't get a job as a PM because the competition was too much then I would have to go do something else. Same with if I couldn't make the wages I was making before. I'm going to need to bring something in to keep the lights on and the roof over my head.

With the way things are going, unless there is another economic stimulus, people are going to have to make some tough choices when it comes to their next job.

Ok... the same question applies. There aren’t going to suddenly be more jobs elsewhere.

 

[DisneyCane]

Honestly. I don't know where you get your logic. The goal is not to eliminate the virus all together - that simply can't be done. It's to limit the spread and we can do that via this method. There's a reason every epidemiologist and public policy expert thinks its the only real way to go until there's a vaccine. Again, where are your credentials to say they are incorrect?

The logic is that if asymptomatic spreaders are a large contributor to the spread, which many experts have said appears to be the case, then you can't limit a large portion of the spread because they will not get tested. Therefore, you can't contact trace to find other asymptomatic spreaders that the original one infected.

Sure, it will be better than nothing because you can isolate and contact trace the symptomatic spreaders and find some asymptomatic spreaders that they infected.

 

[natatomic]

Ok... the same question applies. There aren’t going to suddenly be more jobs elsewhere.

The fact is, you and @TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives are probably BOTH right. Right now, most people at Disney need to seriously consider looking for other jobs. However, there is going to be a serious lack of jobs for many for, quite possibly, a long time. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be looking, but it doesn’t mean they’re gonna just find another job anytime soon either.

 

[GoofGoof]

The system proposed by Apple and Google does not even use your location. The plan is to use Bluetooth LE to determine if another device gets within approximately six feet of your device for a determined amount of time. If those conditions are met, the devices tell each other that they were close but it does not say where that close contact occurred. Then, if you test positive and somehow verify that your device would push out a notification to the other devices it was near.

Thanks. I wasn’t sure exactly how it works. It seems like a highly efficient way to contact trace. It won’t catch every person who gets infected but way more likely to succeed than manual tracing the old fashion way.

 

[TrojanUSC]

The logic is that if asymptomatic spreaders are a large contributor to the spread, which many experts have said appears to be the case, then you can't limit a large portion of the spread because they will not get tested. Therefore, you can't contact trace to find other asymptomatic spreaders that the original one infected.

Sure, it will be better than nothing because you can isolate and contact trace the symptomatic spreaders and find some asymptomatic spreaders that they infected.

We yet do not know how many people are truly asymptomatic. We do know a lot of people experience symptoms of some sort. The goal is reduction. If we can contact trace every symptomatic person and test even those without symptoms that they've come into contact with, we will start winning.

 

[Andrew C]

Ok... the same question applies. There aren’t going to suddenly be more jobs elsewhere.

Which is why there is a good chance this will continue to suck for many people even when the virus is gone/dealt with.

 

[DisneyCane]

The app as I’ve seen it described does none of what you described. It’s not alerting authorities, it’s not tracking who is in quarantine or who is vaccinated. It’s a simple locational tracker. When you set it up your phone is assigned a unique identifier which has no personal info on it. You are person 12345. As time goes on the tool collects all of the other people person 12345 has come in contact with. If one of the random people you crossed paths with changes their status to tested positive then you are alerted and it’s up to you to go and get tested and isolate yourself. If you are positive you would change your status to positive in the app and the same would happen for others. All the app does is take the place of manual contact tracing where they ask someone who tested positive to list out everyone they have come in contact with and then the health department contacts each person and tells them they should get tested.

I think the fear is that when your app assigns you as person 12345 it is also sending device ID information to the servers. If the ONLY thing that gets transmitted to the servers is the numerical identifier and test status then it shouldn't be an issue. I think for people to be comfortable with the privacy protection, Google and Apple will need to make the source code for the apps public so that software engineers can verify that this is the case.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Ok... the same question applies. There aren’t going to suddenly be more jobs elsewhere.

I guess I'm confused as to what the alternative is? You might as well be applying. If your unemployment insurance w/ steroids runs out at the end of July then you're going to need a job. You can't wait until then to do it. You have to start that process now because it's going to take a while to go through that process.

The fact is, you and @TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives are probably BOTH right. Right now, most people at Disney need to seriously consider looking for other jobs. However, there is going to be a serious lack of jobs for many for, quite possibly, a long time. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be looking, but it doesn’t mean they’re gonna just find another job anytime soon either.

Correct, there's going to be a lack of jobs available. You can either hold out for your job returning or begin looking. Just because you look doesn't mean you have to say no. I think the process is going to take much longer as companies are going to have their pick for the limited jobs they have available.

 

[TrojanUSC]

I've seen lots of conversations about how back furlough means you get your job back. That's not the case though. You're essentially laid off under a fancier term that allows the company to bring you back without having to essentially go through the onboarding process. There are a lot of furloughed people, including those who will be impacted next week by the Disney furloughs, who will never go back to work for the company that has furloughed them. In addition, the unemployment numbers include those who are furloughed. It's a nice thought that furloughed employees will get their jobs back. There are no guarantees there whatsoever and those people need to act like they don't have a job because if they sit back and wait for Disney to call them back, there's a good chance that call will never happen. They need to be looking for a new job now.

This really isn't true. You aren't getting a paycheck, but in the case of Disney CMs you retain all other benefits of employment, from healthcare to tuition assistance (many soon-to-be-furloughed CMs are taking this opportunity to take advantage of this), seniority, etc. If you were truly laid off, you'd lose all of that and have to go onto COBRA, which costs a fortune and retain no other benefits.

Some of the furloughed people may eventually be laid off, just as they would be if they were still working and Disney had layoffs, but they are all still Disney employees for at least 12 months.

Is US furlough not the same as UK furlough?

It is.

 

[Polynesia]

And someone like Disney doesn't know what they will need until it's closer to time. If I was working at WDW, I would be prepared to find a new job on the off chance that the parks don't re-open this year (which I think would cause Disney to just lay off everyone) or don't open by the end of the boosted unemployment insurance.

The cast members have a 12 month furlough. Disney wouldn’t lay-off until April 2021.