Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[peter11435]

It was also about giving time to set up a protocol to test way more people, trace their contacts and isolate those people. Thereby trying to get it under control. Doesn't seem like a whole lot of progress has been made on this front. If we take our foot off the breaks now, our "slow the spread" will just become "delay the spread," with new peaks months off.

There’s basically been no progress on that front and it’s one of our biggest issues. You can’t control the spread if you don’t know who has it.

 

[TrojanUSC]

No it wasn't. The justification for "15 (and then 47) days to slow the spread" was flattening the curve to prevent overwhelming the health care system. These other goals have been added by people moving the goal posts.

As I posted in the other thread, no expert has answered the question of how, if asymptomatic patients are a significant contributor to the spread, you can possibly quarantine the infected and contact trace no matter how much test capacity is available.

You contact trace by finding those who are sick then testing everyone they came into contact with (as many as you can), thereby theoretically catching the asymptomatic carriers.

This is not that much different than a scenario that plays out every day across the country (thankfully in much less common numbers now): Someone tests positive for HIV. They provide a list of their sexual history/contacts. The local health department calls or sends a letter saying someone you were recently intimate with has tested positive, please proceed to the nearest testing place. These people aren't going to get tested because they have full blown AIDS, or any symptoms at all, its because they are told they could have been exposed. The COVID-19 version of that would involve thousands of people and mobile testing sites, rather than a few overworked people in a county health department.

 

[peter11435]

No it wasn't. The justification for "15 (and then 47) days to slow the spread" was flattening the curve to prevent overwhelming the health care system. These other goals have been added by people moving the goal posts.

As I posted in the other thread, no expert has answered the question of how, if asymptomatic patients are a significant contributor to the spread, you can possibly quarantine the infected and contact trace no matter how much test capacity is available.

Even if asymptomatic you would still test positive. So testing only those with symptoms is a failure.

 

[flynnibus]

Are you aware that due to the elimination of elective work that hospitals converted other facilities to expand ICU capacity or that they can convert anesthesia machines into ventilators if necessary?

Yes, you've hopefully seen photos like the Detroit hospital using sleep study rooms to store bodies because the morgue couldnt take them.

converting spaces doesn't enlist all that capacity though which is where these "the hospitals are empty" rhetoric is coming from. Huge portions of the medical industry being idled due to changes in behavior and what procedures are being done.

but none of that changes that the portions in contention are still in contention!


Its just more fud and bs talking points aimed at the people too eager ro listen instead of understanding

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

You contact trace by finding those who are sick then testing everyone they came into contact with (as many as you can), thereby theoretically catching the asymptomatic carriers.

This is not that much different than a scenario that plays out every day across the country (thankfully in much less common numbers now): Someone tests positive for HIV. They provide a list of their sexual history/contacts. The local health department calls or sends a letter saying someone you were recently intimate with has tested positive, please proceed to the nearest testing place. These people aren't going to get tested because they have full blown AIDS, or any symptoms at all, its because they are told they could have been exposed. The COVID-19 version of that would involve thousands of people and mobile testing sites, rather than a few overworked people in a county health department.

HIV is an easier one to contact trace because usually you know enough about the partner(s) you've been intimate (or sharing needles with) with in the methods that would transmit the virus. With this one, because transmission is so much easier, it definitely makes it more difficult to ensure everyone you've come in contact with is notified. Feasibly, you would remember everyone, but you also have to take into consideration the people you don't know you've briefly come in contact with during the course of a day or a series of days.

There will be gaps and people will fall through them, thus still resulting in a possible outbreak.

 

[Slpy3270]

Rich Greenfield once again doomsaying Disney like he did pressuring Comcast to beat them for 21CF.

Bearish Disney Analyst Warns Investors Over Long-Term COVID-19 Impact

LightShed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield initiated covering of Walt Disney with a "neutral" stock rating in a report with the headline "Disney’s Unique Vulnerability to COVID-19 Should Keep Investors Away." He says the Hollywood conglomerate's earnings are "likely to be far lower than...

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[GoofGoof]

There’s still no way of knowing when or if a vaccine will be available. And even once it is, it will take a long time to vaccinate the population and you will never get everyone. It’s also unknown how effective that vaccine will be long term and how quickly you might be dealing with a new strain the vaccine is ineffective for. The fear of an outbreak is always there, from this or something else, just as it was last fall before anyone knew this was coming.

I get it. We all want answers and we all want perceived safety. But at some point the world has to be able to function again. We will need to find ways to return to some level of normal, while mitigating risk, without waiting for a permanent solution that may never come.

You don’t need to vaccinate everyone. There were some reports that based on the way this virus spreads you would only need between 40 and 60% of the population to get to herd immunity. When you factor in people who already got sick that’s likely less than half that would need to be vaccinated. I’m sure the actual rate will be higher but this isn’t the measles where you need 90%+ to be effective.

i agree that the world needs to go on and that we need to move towards some level of normal. That being said I don’t think that means we pick a date and everything just opens up. I think at some point the shelter in place restrictions open up but with social distancing still suggested or even required. They will likely continue the ban on large group gatherings for months after the initial date the shelter in place comes off. The fear is a second wave comes and we go right back to shelter in place. They will be cautious in opening up. If there’s no second wave or new treatments or better testing come around to mitigate the impact then the timeline could be accelerated.

 

[TrojanUSC]

HIV is an easier one to contact trace because usually you know enough about the partner(s) you've been intimate (or sharing needles with) with in the methods that would transmit the virus. With this one, because transmission is so much easier, it definitely makes it more difficult to ensure everyone you've come in contact with is notified. Feasibly, you would remember everyone, but you also have to take into consideration the people you don't know you've briefly come in contact with during the course of a day or a series of days.

There will be gaps and people will fall through them, thus still resulting in a possible outbreak.

It's a lot more difficult, nobody is doubting that. As I mentioned, in the HIV scenario you usually have a few overworked people in the health department handling things. In this case you'd have thousands of workers doing testing/tracing. Some will fall through the cracks but its about minimizing, not extinguishing, the threat.

 

[peter11435]

I'm sure there is some contribution but I'm not so sure that the actions taken have contributed as much to lowering the numbers as we'd be led to believe. I'm basing this comment by looking at Italy. They instituted the national lockdown March 10th. They still had more new cases yesterday (over a month later) than on March 13th. I'm not convinced that the curve would have been that much different without the measures. Yes, the actions have done SOMETHING but I'm not convinced the doomsday scenarios would have occurred without the measures being taken.

I don’t think you can look at what has been done. Closing schools. Closing retail. Stopping almost all all air travel. tourism. theaters. concerts. sporting events, and even family holidays. And think for one minute that it didn’t have a significant impact on the spread.

 

[Jrb1979]

Latest numbers for Florida reported in the last 24 hours - 609 new reported cases, with a rather large spike in deaths up by 72.

View attachment 463501

I think you’ll be surprised.

Remember how busy WDW was on its last weekend of operation. Everyone was already well aware of the threat then but that didn’t stop them from being there. And that was with zero protections in place and people hadn’t been trapped at home and deprived of entertainment for months yet.

There’s a huge section of the population here that still doesn’t really believe there is even a threat and thinks this is all an overreaction. I see people around me everyday taking their kids and family’s to the local parks and grocery stores unnecessarily with no protection.

Sure you will have people who do go out because they don’t feel safe. Just as there are those who still won’t fly.

What I surprised with is how many still can afford it considering how many people are not working right now

 

[csmat99]

I do expect that the economy will pick up rather quickly once everything is open, but its not going to happen in one day or one week.

The economy is not going to pick up quickly. You are talking about years to recover. It's not like all businesses are going to be able to open all the same time. Some businesses will never open again, some will be forever altered, some like Disney parks will be lucky if they are allowed to open by July/August and they definitely will be very limited capacity. The more I'm thinking about it I think we are looking at the amount of people that are sold tickets to special event like Halloween/xmas party.

 

[peter11435]

What I surprised with is how many still can afford it considering how many people are not working right now

Many of those who are currently not working couldn’t afford it even when they were.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

It's a lot more difficult, nobody is doubting that. As I mentioned, in the HIV scenario you usually have a few overworked people in the health department handling things. In this case you'd have thousands of workers doing testing/tracing. Some will fall through the cracks but its about minimizing, not extinguishing, the threat.

Would we have thousands of workers? I'm honestly asking. Are these from the health department or just general governmental workers?

 

[hopemax]

I hope they are doing some research into how the Ro varies by population density and other factors. If you look at Big Sky Country, it seems that most of the cases are related to nursing homes or food processing facilities where people spend all day standing shoulder to shoulder. I don't think the case picture would be that different in a state like Montana if they didn't have any measures at all beyond stay home if you are sick and wash your hands frequently.

Church.

In rural areas, Sunday services, followed by coffee hour, followed by everyone heading to the local restaurant for brunch would absolutely have been a vector. It will be a vector, because you know that once limits start coming down, it will be high on the list of things people want to do, for normalcy.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Many of those who are currently not working couldn’t afford it even when they were.

Depends on how you define 'afford'. In addition, this hasn't only impacted front-line workers. There are many high five-figures to six-figure employees who have also been furloughed/laid off. This isn't just impacting low-wage workers. There's much to be said if even someone making $100K could realistically afford a trip to WDW these days.

 

[GoofGoof]

There’s basically been no progress on that front and it’s one of our biggest issues. You can’t control the spread if you don’t know who has it.

We have the technology to track the spread and contact trace and isolate anyone infected, but the problem is people won’t use it. If you want to go back to life as normal you have to agree to allow the smartphone apps (Google and Apple worked together on it) to track the infected and alert you when you have come in contact. As soon as a person tests positive they go into the app and flag themselves as sick. The app automatically tracks all other users who came within 6 feet of the infected in the last x number of days and alerts them. They immediately get tested. If positive then the same thing happens. If negative they move on with their lives. If a large portion of the population agreed to actually use the technology it would work. You don’t need everyone, just enough people to slow the spread and avoid a breakout of a hot spot. Even if half the population used it there would be a significant improvement in testing time and isolation of the sick. Unfortunately I fear too many people will irrationally worry about someone tracking their location so they won’t use the app. Manual contact tracing is much harder to accomplish. I’m perfectly fine with an anonymous software tracking my location if it means I can leave the house again.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

We have the technology to track the spread and contact trace and isolate anyone infected, but the problem is people won’t use it. If you want to go back to life as normal you have to agree to allow the smartphone apps (Google and Apple worked together on it) to track the infected and alert you when you have come in contact. As soon as a person tests positive they go into the app and flag themselves as sick. The app automatically tracks all other users who came within 6 feet of the infected in the last x number of days and alerts them. They immediately get tested. If positive then the same thing happens. If negative they move on with their lives. If a large portion of the population agreed to actually use the technology it would work. You don’t need everyone, just enough people to slow the spread and avoid a breakout of a hot spot. Even if half the population used it there would be a significant improvement in testing time and isolation of the sick. Unfortunately I fear too many people will irrationally worry about someone tracking their location so they won’t use the app. Manual contact tracing is much harder to accomplish. I’m perfectly fine with an anonymous software tracking my location if it means I can leave the house again.

There is absolutely nothing irrational in regards to worrying about this app. There are legit privacy concerns and the last thing we need to find out is that two years down the road, this app has been tracking far more info than it was originally thought it was. Apple has a decent track record with this, but Google much less so. I would not categorize someone with reservations about this app as being irrational.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Unfortunately I fear too many people will irrationally worry about someone tracking their location so they won’t use the app.

It’s a very rational fear.

 

[flynnibus]

I don’t think you can look at what has been done. Closing schools. Closing retail. Stopping almost all all air travel. tourism. theaters. concerts. sporting events, and even family holidays. And think for one minute that it didn’t have a significant impact on the spread.

the "what about.." schtick cookbook dictates that you quickly move away from things that are clear and obvious as soon as possible

 

[Jrb1979]

Depends on how you define 'afford'. In addition, this hasn't only impacted front-line workers. There are many high five-figures to six-figure employees who have also been furloughed/laid off. This isn't just impacting low-wage workers. There's much to be said if even someone making $100K could realistically afford a trip to WDW these days.

What a difference in 2 countries. Here in Canada they don't plan on lifting restrictions til mid summer. Then they plan on slowly opening the economy with some sort of social distancing in place til there is a vaccine or a way to treat this.