Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

The economy is not going to pick up quickly. You are talking about years to recover. It's not like all businesses are going to be able to open all the same time. Some businesses will never open again, some will be forever altered, some like Disney parks will be lucky if they are allowed to open by July/August and they definitely will be very limited capacity. The more I'm thinking about it I think we are looking at the amount of people that are sold tickets to special event like Halloween/xmas party.

I posted a while back a study from a consulting firm and they projected that around 50% of the jobs lost would return within a few months of opening things back up. For the rest it will take years. There is no historical precedent for this situation so it’s hard to say how long it will take. For certain industries and businesses life will never go back to the way it was. Others could thrive under the new norm.

 

[GoofGoof]

There is absolutely nothing irrational in regards to worrying about this app. There are legit privacy concerns and the last thing we need to find out is that two years down the road, this app has been tracking far more info than it was originally thought it was. Apple has a decent track record with this, but Google much less so. I would not categorize someone with reservations about this app as being irrational.

It’s a very rational fear.

Just my opinion. It’s a little tin foil hatish. I do nothing that interesting and have nothing to hide. I bet the average person doesn’t realize they already have the same information any time you allow location access with an app or use your phone GPS for directions.

 

[Kevin_W]

We have the technology to track the spread and contact trace and isolate anyone infected, but the problem is people won’t use it. If you want to go back to life as normal you have to agree to allow the smartphone apps (Google and Apple worked together on it) to track the infected and alert you when you have come in contact.

I'd just change that statement to "are working together on it". Such an app doesn't exist yet.

I agree with Disney Days that there are legitimate privacy concerns. But there are positives to such software as well. I'm not sure where I come down on it, personally. On one hand, I use Google homes in my house and have google's location tracking turned on on my phone. On the other hand, I didn't use Allstate's Drivewise tracker when I was with them because I didn't feel that level of monitoring was worth it.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I posted a while back a study from a consulting firm and they projected that around 50% of the jobs lost would return within a few months of opening things back up. For the rest it will take years. There is no historical precedent for this situation so it’s hard to say how long it will take. For certain industries and businesses life will never go back to the way it was. Others could thrive under the new norm.

If that 50% holds true, it's going to be very important to know what 50%. If it's front-line workers (which is what I would expect as restaurants/retailers re-open and need some form of staffing) then I don't think that would be great for the economy. Yes, they will be returning to work, but if it is disproportionately towards front-line workers, the wages they will be getting will not come close to replacing the dollars that those in higher-wage jobs would be pumping into the economy. Plus, while many of those front-line jobs could come back, the question then becomes at how many hours a week. They may have their job back, but go from 36 hours a week to 24 hours a week. The job is back, but less in terms of wages and thus less to spend outside of their necessary expenses.

Like you said, this is unprecedented. So it's going to be difficult to really know.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Just my opinion. It’s a little tin foil hatish. I do nothing that interesting and have nothing to hide. I bet the average person doesn’t realize they already have the same information any time you allow location access with an app or use your phone GPS for directions.

It's really not. Especially when you consider the number of data breaches we see on a yearly basis. I don't have an issue with it personally (though the number of people I come in contact with will be very low), but to dismiss others fears as the privacy walls continue to come down is disrespectful to those who value their privacy and not letting technology companies in any further than they already have.

 

[GoofGoof]

If that 50% holds true, it's going to be very important to know what 50%. If it's front-line workers (which is what I would expect as restaurants/retailers re-open and need some form of staffing) then I don't think that would be great for the economy. Yes, they will be returning to work, but if it is disproportionately towards front-line workers, the wages they will be getting will not come close to replacing the dollars that those in higher-wage jobs would be pumping into the economy. Plus, while many of those front-line jobs could come back, the question then becomes at how many hours a week. They may have their job back, but go from 36 hours a week to 24 hours a week. The job is back, but less in terms of wages and thus less to spend outside of their necessary expenses.

Like you said, this is unprecedented. So it's going to be difficult to really know.

A large number of workers are furloughed not laid off so those will be the ones coming back more quickly. Not all of them because hotel and flight and restaurant demand will be down for some time, but I think that’s the thought. Some businesses will go under completely and those jobs will be gone.

 

[Horizons '83]

I

I posted a while back a study from a consulting firm and they projected that around 50% of the jobs lost would return within a few months of opening things back up. For the rest it will take years. There is no historical precedent for this situation so it’s hard to say how long it will take. For certain industries and businesses life will never go back to the way it was. Others could thrive under the new norm.

I'd be curious about that study. I would see Restaurants/Breweries/Bars immediately hiring the staff back on once it is allowed. Stores I feel would be the same. I would however see a tiered approach for Theme Parks, Airlines, Concert Venues, Movie theaters etc taking longer to hire people back

 

[hopemax]

I posted a while back a study from a consulting firm and they projected that around 50% of the jobs lost would return within a few months of opening things back up. For the rest it will take years. There is no historical precedent for this situation so it’s hard to say how long it will take. For certain industries and businesses life will never go back to the way it was. Others could thrive under the new norm.

That's how I've been feeling about WDW crowd levels, and people's anecdotal stories. The first 30-60% of guests, might absolutely be breaking down the doors when the parks reopen. Or at least, after they can get some travel arranged and days off of work, take a few weeks. Enough people to fill social media with pictures of how busy certain areas are, sold out FP+ and lines for the headliners. But getting from there to 100% is going to be a slog.

 

[Horizons '83]

It's really not. Especially when you consider the number of data breaches we see on a yearly basis. I don't have an issue with it personally (though the number of people I come in contact with will be very low), but to dismiss others fears as the privacy walls continue to come down is disrespectful to those who value their privacy and not letting technology companies in any further than they already have.

Unfortunately, if you own a smartphone with GPS, your privacy went out the window a long time ago.

 

[marni1971]

Any links to Floridas Surgeon generals recent comment yet?

 

[hopemax]

Any links to Floridas Surgeon generals recent comment yet?

Go back to page 844. Yesterday's, press briefing was mentioned by a couple people. Unless he said something new today.

Or is this a cue that WDW will be following the advice of the FL Surgeon General and not the Governor's desires?

 

[DCBaker]

Any links to Floridas Surgeon generals recent comment yet?

Yes, this happened at the presser yesterday -

"Floridians will be keeping their distance and wearing face masks for up to a year until a COVID-19 vaccine exists, Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees said Monday before being whisked away by the governor’s spokeswoman.

Rivkees told reporters that Floridians needed to get used to current precautions, such as avoiding crowds of 10 or more and wearing face masks in public.

“Until we get a vaccine, which is a while off, this is going to be our new normal and we need to adapt and protect ourselves,” he said."

Florida should social distance until a vaccine exists â even if itâs next year, surgeon general says

After his assertion on social distancing, Scott Rivkees was quickly removed from the room by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ spokeswoman.

www.tampabay.com

 

[CaptainNicko]

Any links to Floridas Surgeon generals recent comment yet?

From yesterday? There is a short clip in this post: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...irus-news-n1183181/ncrd1183511#liveBlogHeader

 

[marni1971]

Or is this a cue that WDW will be following the advice of the FL Surgeon General and not the Governor's desires?

I’m still trying to piece it together.

 

[DisneyCane]

Even if asymptomatic you would still test positive. So testing only those with symptoms is a failure.

But why would an asymptomatic person go and get tested?

Yes, you've hopefully seen photos like the Detroit hospital using sleep study rooms to store bodies because the morgue couldnt take them.

converting spaces doesn't enlist all that capacity though which is where these "the hospitals are empty" rhetoric is coming from. Huge portions of the medical industry being idled due to changes in behavior and what procedures are being done.

but none of that changes that the portions in contention are still in contention!


Its just more fud and bs talking points aimed at the people too eager ro listen instead of understanding

Morgue capacity doesn't matter to treatment capacity. Go talk to people that work in a hospital and get an understanding for what has been done to prepare for the surge that isn't coming. The "hospitals are empty" rhetoric is coming because it is TRUE outside of a few hot spots. The unused capacity is available for COVID-19 patients due to the conversions that have happened.

I don’t think you can look at what has been done. Closing schools. Closing retail. Stopping almost all all air travel. tourism. theaters. concerts. sporting events, and even family holidays. And think for one minute that it didn’t have a significant impact on the spread.

We will never know what would have happened if these things weren't done. I'm just looking at Italy where they took drastic action and Sweden where they have done much less. The curves don't look that different.

Church.

In rural areas, Sunday services, followed by coffee hour, followed by everyone heading to the local restaurant for brunch would absolutely have been a vector. It will be a vector, because you know that once limits start coming down, it will be high on the list of things people want to do, for normalcy.

There are easy and sane precautions to take. Wear masks for the service and social distance the coffee hour and lunch or skip them for now.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

A large number of workers are furloughed not laid off so those will be the ones coming back more quickly. Not all of them because hotel and flight and restaurant demand will be down for some time, but I think that’s the thought. Some businesses will go under completely and those jobs will be gone.

I've seen lots of conversations about how back furlough means you get your job back. That's not the case though. You're essentially laid off under a fancier term that allows the company to bring you back without having to essentially go through the onboarding process. There are a lot of furloughed people, including those who will be impacted next week by the Disney furloughs, who will never go back to work for the company that has furloughed them. In addition, the unemployment numbers include those who are furloughed. It's a nice thought that furloughed employees will get their jobs back. There are no guarantees there whatsoever and those people need to act like they don't have a job because if they sit back and wait for Disney to call them back, there's a good chance that call will never happen. They need to be looking for a new job now.

 

[natatomic]

Unfortunately, if you own a smartphone with GPS, your privacy went out the window a long time ago.

It’s one thing for a phone to track your location. It’s another for a phone to track your health status, which sick people you’ve been around, if you SHOULD be in quarantine, if you’re NOT in quarantine (will it alert the authorities?), if you’re vaccinated, if you’re not vaccinated, if you are considered a threat to those around you (again, will this alert authorities?)

It sounds benign enough - perfect, an app that lets me know if I was near a sick person. But how it could easily be the first step toward a police state, and it wouldn’t take many more steps beyond the invention of the app to get us there.

[/tinfoil hat speech]

 

[TrojanUSC]

Would we have thousands of workers? I'm honestly asking. Are these from the health department or just general governmental workers?

I think that has to be figured out, which is why you won't see much open for a few months yet.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

They need to be looking for a new job now.

Where? The professional actors, techs. Stage managers and musicians who have recently been furloughed now have to compete with all of Broadaway and Equity National Tours laying off / furloughing everyone. Any professional acting gigs that are able to happen in the near future have a crazy amount of competitition for those jobs. That’s using one industry as an example. It will be the same with everything.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I think that has to be figured out, which is why you won't see much open for a few months yet.

So it's an assumption. It probably will be the same overworked employees, except now that list is significantly larger for them to track per person and work through with each person in contact.