Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
I wonder if employees have to go around turning on the sinks to flush the stagnant water from P traps and keep the sewer gas from escaping if the water evaporates.

I don't think this shutdown is yet long enough for that to be an issue (source: I have a rarely used bathroom in my basement that I occasionally have to do this).

And I suppose that if no one is in the parks then sewer gas escaping isn't really an issue.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
On a tangent, but that is my main complaint about the Ohio Theater in my town. The men's restroom has 6 stalls, 12 urinals, and 2 sinks. Who did that math?!?

As for Disney, I thought most sinks in restrooms were motion sensors these days so the water runs however long your hands are there.
That's a good point. The ones who designed the bathrooms did not put enough sinks installed compared to ratio of toilet stalls and urinals. Perhaps they thought hand washing pre corona was not that important.
 

Horizons '83

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
If Newsom's comments end up being the directionin which states move forward, then outside of reduced capacity at restaurants/retailers and re-designed office spaces, I think you are looking at a majority of what we consider 'normal' will be put on hold until a vaccine happens. There's an alarming amount of people talking about that reality that it seems like they're trying to prepare people for that to be the new norm for the next 18-24 months.
I think offices are in a sticky situation because you have people sitting for 8 to 10 hours together in very close proximity to each other. I think about 23 of the 35 of us on one floor got sick in the first 2 weeks of December.
 

Kamikaze

Well-Known Member
Okay, Kamikaze. Apparently I did not explain that well enough. The quoted part of your post is false. Particles smaller than 0.3 microns are filtered more easily than particles at 0.3 microns. That is why 0.3 microns was chosen for the specification. The link say squite a bit more than "this is how filters work". Here is a picture of capture efficiency vs. particle size. this is specifically dealing with HEPA, not N95, but you can see the efficiency peat is lowest at 0.3 microns. At 0.1 microns it is >99.99%.

View attachment 463614


As for healthcare workers getting sick, high er exposure is the main reason. 95% is still not 100% so some particles may get through. If exposed to enough, that could be enough to sicken a worker. There is also the issue of not wearing the PPE properly, or other routes of exposure when taking masks on/off.

You're applying what you are finding about general filtration and applying it to N95 masks. Doesn't work like that.

My point wasn't that the masks don't help, its that for most people they don't help any more than just putting a bandana over your mouth and nose.


An N95 respirator is a respiratory protective device designed to achieve a very close facial fit and very efficient filtration of airborne particles.

The 'N95' designation means that when subjected to careful testing, the respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (0.3 micron) test particles. If properly fitted, the filtration capabilities of N95 respirators exceed those of face masks. However, even a properly fitted N95 respirator does not completely eliminate the risk of illness or death.
 

peter11435

Well-Known Member
But no one will admit to crying wolf, even if the numbers come in very low. They are already saying that the reason the numbers are an order of magnitude lower than their projections we're "due to our actions" (regardless of the fact that the models included these actions). Politicians will take credit regardless of how this goes.
Certainly our actions have contributed to lowering the numbers and there is no doubt that politicians will take credit. But I don’t think the general population will see it that way. They will see it as things were no where near as bad as people claimed and will not take it as seriously going forward or the next time. The same way people act after they prepare for what is portrayed by the media and officials as a massive and devastating hurricane that later weakens or turns at the last minute. Only in this case the public response to this crisis helped turn the “hurricane.”
 
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DKampy

Well-Known Member
I saw that Florida dropped in cases dramatically yesterday...only about 671 new cases compared to an average of 1200 per day before hand...if this isn’t a fluke(which it could be) it could highly suggest there is a seasonality to this. Admittedly, I live in Wisconsin so I don’t know what the feeling is in Florida.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
And that is one of the key flaws (pointed out very early in the year) in the flatten the curve models. They did not take into account the ration of population to hospital beds in each city. Rather, they used an average across the country.

They also didn't take into account that the hospitals would stop doing "elective" things. They basically calculated shortfalls based on additional need for COVID on top of the normal need. Outside of the NYC metro and a few other hot spots, hospitals are half or more empty. For most places, "flattening the curve" solved a problem that didn't exist. The models were WAY off on hospital resource use.

Going forward, I hope that a geographically targeted approach is used. Even within New York state, most counties are not seriously impacted. Measures may be necessary to keep the curve flat in NYC and surrounding counties (including in other border states) that are not necessary in the middle of the state.

I hope they are doing some research into how the Ro varies by population density and other factors. If you look at Big Sky Country, it seems that most of the cases are related to nursing homes or food processing facilities where people spend all day standing shoulder to shoulder. I don't think the case picture would be that different in a state like Montana if they didn't have any measures at all beyond stay home if you are sick and wash your hands frequently.

For the world to get through until there is a vaccine, the control measures need to be very surgical. The scientists also need to work overtime to quantify how transmission actually happens. Is there really a risk from an asymptomatic person sitting at the next table in a restaurant for an hour or sitting next to you at a basketball arena for the length of a game? I have no idea but these are important questions to answer with scientific research.
 

DisneyDoctor

Well-Known Member
Outside of NYC, hospitals have been way under capacity from all reports that I've seen.
My institution (large academic center) has decreased admissions substantially. My wife and I think this is a result of the lack of teaching happening currently (all students sent home, most residents repurposed to general floors to fight COVID). Makes me wonder how much money we waste on education and whether or not some patients truly need admission..
 

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
I think offices are in a sticky situation because you have people sitting for 8 to 10 hours together in very close proximity to each other. I think about 23 of the 35 of us on one floor got sick in the first 2 weeks of December.

Exactly. The client I work with has an office in a tower with other companies. And there are probably 7 or 8 towers nestled together? So people are going in and out all day every day. It's going to be near impossible for them to re-open those offices anytime soon. Thankfully, they were closing down that office and merging with another office into a new building. Still, it's not going to be possible to have a few hundred people (probably more) all within the same office building. Just too dangerous for the time being. If you had an outbreak at your office? Your company could be shut down for weeks if not longer. So I think remote work is going to be the norm for a couple of years.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
"Disney has just announced that they will be extending the suspension of Disney Magic sailings through June 7th."

"With the wellbeing of its guests and team members as its top priority and in line with direction from health experts and government officials, Disney Cruise Line has decided to extend the suspension of Disney Magic departures through Sunday, June 7, 2020.

In light of this cancellation, Disney Cruise Line is offering guests the choice of a 125% future cruise credit to be used for a future sailing within 15 months of their original sail date, or a full refund. The credit has been automatically added to their account. "

This affects Disney Cruise Line departures for:
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
They also didn't take into account that the hospitals would stop doing "elective" things. They basically calculated shortfalls based on additional need for COVID on top of the normal need. Outside of the NYC metro and a few other hot spots, hospitals are half or more empty. For most places, "flattening the curve" solved a problem that didn't exist. The models were WAY off on hospital resource use.

more revisionist bs from people misusing information.

the mri suite and surgical recovery suites being empty does not mean the icu, er, and resources are not strained.

the "other" parts of medicine being under utilized due to tge elimination of elective work and drop in other activity Does not mean the actual portions in contention-- are not still in contention
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
You're applying what you are finding about general filtration and applying it to N95 masks. Doesn't work like that.

My point wasn't that the masks don't help, its that for most people they don't help any more than just putting a bandana over your mouth and nose.


An N95 respirator is a respiratory protective device designed to achieve a very close facial fit and very efficient filtration of airborne particles.

The 'N95' designation means that when subjected to careful testing, the respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (0.3 micron) test particles. If properly fitted, the filtration capabilities of N95 respirators exceed those of face masks. However, even a properly fitted N95 respirator does not completely eliminate the risk of illness or death.

I can't believe we're still debating this. This isn't stuff "I've found". When in college, I actually worked in Battelle's Aerosol science and technology group for a couple years. That's a long time ago, but the science hasn't changed. The physics of particle filtration absolutly do apply to N95 masks.

What more do you want? The CDC's website? https://blogs.cdc.gov/niosh-science-blog/2009/10/14/n95/

An actual study where they shot virus particles at surgical and N96 masks? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16490606

Fit is certainly the most important piece (as they state in the nih article), and you are absolutely right that a respirator still doesn't eliminate risk. That's why for IDLH environments you see people in positive-pressure supplied-air masks/suits. But the N95 provides a good balance of cost effectiveness and ease of use.
 

TrojanUSC

Well-Known Member
This. The point of everything we have been doing since mid March was never to hide from the virus until there was a cure/vaccine. It was to slow the spread so healthcare could be better prepared.

It was also about giving time to set up a protocol to test way more people, trace their contacts and isolate those people. Thereby trying to get it under control. Doesn't seem like a whole lot of progress has been made on this front. If we take our foot off the breaks now, our "slow the spread" will just become "delay the spread," with new peaks months off.
 

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I'm officially in can't-breathe territory. My partner's job is effectively gone since the theater industry isn't coming back for a while. Especially after Newsom's statement. We've got it much worse here in NYC, I can't imagine it'll be any better here.

Is it ok to freak out now or am I still jumping the gun?
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Certainly our actions have contributed to lowering the numbers
I'm sure there is some contribution but I'm not so sure that the actions taken have contributed as much to lowering the numbers as we'd be led to believe. I'm basing this comment by looking at Italy. They instituted the national lockdown March 10th. They still had more new cases yesterday (over a month later) than on March 13th. I'm not convinced that the curve would have been that much different without the measures. Yes, the actions have done SOMETHING but I'm not convinced the doomsday scenarios would have occurred without the measures being taken.
I saw that Florida dropped in cases dramatically yesterday...only about 671 new cases compared to an average of 1200 per day before hand...if this isn’t a fluke(which it could be) it could highly suggest there is a seasonality to this. Admittedly, I live in Wisconsin so I don’t know what the feeling is in Florida.
If it isn't a fluke and the trend continues it would indicate that my theory that we are actually on a different part of the curve than we think would be given credence. Basically, I think that the curve we see in Florida is a subset of the actual curve and is essentially being drawn by daily test capacity. The drop won't be seen until the actual number of cases drops below the capacity to test on a daily basis. I have made this crude and exaggerated image to illustrate. Basically, the real shape of the curve isn't observable until the green line intersects the black line.
flcvcurve.jpg
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
more revisionist bs from people misusing information.

the mri suite and surgical recovery suites being empty does not mean the icu, er, and resources are not strained.

the "other" parts of medicine being under utilized due to tge elimination of elective work and drop in other activity Does not mean the actual portions in contention-- are not still in contention

Are you aware that due to the elimination of elective work that hospitals converted other facilities to expand ICU capacity or that they can convert anesthesia machines into ventilators if necessary? The portions in contention are expanded. For the patients that don't require ICU or ventilators, the empty beds are available capacity. The only thing revisionist is the adjustments in the models which were not CLOSE to being accurate on hospital resource use.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
It was also about giving time to set up a protocol to test way more people, trace their contacts and isolate those people. Thereby trying to get it under control. Doesn't seem like a whole lot of progress has been made on this front. If we take our foot off the breaks now, our "slow the spread" will just become "delay the spread," with new peaks months off.

No it wasn't. The justification for "15 (and then 47) days to slow the spread" was flattening the curve to prevent overwhelming the health care system. These other goals have been added by people moving the goal posts.

As I posted in the other thread, no expert has answered the question of how, if asymptomatic patients are a significant contributor to the spread, you can possibly quarantine the infected and contact trace no matter how much test capacity is available.
 

Polynesia

Well-Known Member
I saw that Florida dropped in cases dramatically yesterday...only about 671 new cases compared to an average of 1200 per day before hand...if this isn’t a fluke(which it could be) it could highly suggest there is a seasonality to this. Admittedly, I live in Wisconsin so I don’t know what the feeling is in Florida.
When I watch the local Orlando news there is a sense that the cases are flattening in our area. It’s been like that for a few days. We’re cautiously optimistic that this is the case. Testing has also been ramped up in the area with more testing stations, more tests at each station and allowing more without strict guidelines to be tested. We’ll see what happens day by day. I’m originally from Wisconsin, too. My daughter still lives there in Waukesha county and my husband is currently working at a Milwaukee hospital. So I hear what’s happening there daily. Keep safe.
 
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