Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[peter11435]

My bet is that you are wrong about re-opening. I suspect that you are also wrong about the Florida trend heading down. It pains me to say this, but the evidence from around the world is that 3-5 months is the time-period most communities will have to slog through in order to master the social and economic conditions this virus has imposed. Unfortunately Disney World, and even later Florida as a whole, has been well behind the curve of mastering the problem. We are less than four weeks away from tens of thousands of people arriving on Main Street to view fireworks - yes bits of explosive stardust in the sky -- and who knows how many infections were seeded at that time.

Well any infections that were seeded on that final night would have already manifested themselves. At least when it comes to the guests and cast that were there that night.

 

[thomas998]

1 - a system doesn’t have to be 100% to be viable. Even under strict hospital rules people still get sick. The point is to find a reasonable method to screen and reduce (not necessarily eliminate) the risk for people to intermix.
2 - to your other scenario about “late bloomers” - if the testing is not good at catching those types of scenarios simply retest on an appropriate interval. This is an area we dont know the strict constraints yet because we are not being specific about the kind of test they would use.

We all know that no test is 100% perfect, but we also have to accept that lawyers would go after Disney as soon as they saw a chance to. Deep pockets are just too tempting to a lawyer and there would be lawsuits you could count on that.

And yes you could retest people but since you would never know when the guest had been exposed, contracted the virus but not gotten to the point of having enough to show positive, the only realistic way to deal with that is to test people every day... which would lower the risks, but would be much more expensive and I doubt people would want to get nasal lobotomies every morning during a vacation.

 

[Calmdownnow]

Well any infections that were seeded on that final night would have already manifested themselves. At least when it comes to the guests and cast that were there that night.

Not necessarily true -- an ER doctor last night said that every day he works adds another 28 days of worry about whether he has been personally infected from contact with a patient. The people at the sharp end are saying that it can take as much as 4 weeks from infection before you end up in ICU. Plus, nobody has researched (or published) contact/community spread data for Disney travel during March.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Skipping rows on boat rides and skipping vehicles on omnimovers is absolutely possible. Running attractions at severely reduced capacity is doable if park attendance is significantly reduced too. Some attractions can be open with altered operations. Those small holding areas in attractions like Mansion and Tower of Terror can be bypassed or utilized with significantly less guests.

Disney is good at thinking out of the box similar to these ideas.

I agree that full social distancing (as it exists today) isn’t possible. There’s no way everyone can always stay 6 feet apart at WDW. It can’t happen at the grocery store either but that’s another debate. I do think there will be some other modified experiences other than just hand sanitizer stations or even a temperature scan. They could ask guests to space out in queues and add outdoor temporary queues to rides that currently don’t have them. They would need shade and/or fans but it’s possible. The biggest challenges are transport and shows. If large group gatherings aren‘t happening anywhere else (concerts, sports, etc) then Disney won’t have fireworks or large shows like Fantasmic. This won’t last forever. I think it may be psychological as much as actual safety so if there isn’t a major 2nd wave of the virus and pro sports start ramping up in the fall it’s possible Disney would bring back some of the stuff they have on hold. I don’t see the modified experience existing unchanged for 18 months.

I created a space to discuss the issues of opening WDW with social distancing still in force, since it keeps coming up here.

Opening WDW with Social Distancing

This thread created for the narrow topic of discussing opening WDW with social distancing still in force since it keeps coming up in the Big Thread… WDW and Social Distancing People have been arguing whether it is possible that WDW can open and still maintain social distancing. Of course WDW...

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[peter11435]

Not necessarily true -- an ER doctor last night said that every day he works adds another 28 days of worry about whether he has been personally infected from contact with a patient. The people at the sharp end are saying that it can take as much as 4 weeks from infection before you end up in ICU. Plus, nobody has researched (or published) contact/community spread data for Disney travel during March.

Every official source I have seen says that symptoms would appear within 14 days of exposure.

Regardless though we are only a few days away from your 28 day mark anyway.

 

[Calmdownnow]

Every official source

Symptoms may develop but admission to hospital (and testing) are not often counted within 14 days because in practice, people with symptoms are most often told to stay at home and self-isolate. It is later, when some of those people have health conditions that deteriorate that they end up in hospital and some days later, in many cases, that they end up on ICU. Hence the estimate that it can take 28 days before outcomes become apparent. In the meantime, some of the most severely affected are passing away at home, or in care facilities etc, because they never actually made it to a hospital.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well any infections that were seeded on that final night would have already manifested themselves. At least when it comes to the guests and cast that were there that night.

We have no way of knowing how many people were infected that weekend at WDW. It’s possible some were infected and became symptomatic later once home. We also have no idea how many people were infected and showed no symptoms but spread the virus to others. There’s no way we will ever know any of that information for sure. It’s a purely philosophical debate. It’s very likely that if a second wave hits we will be much better prepared to test and quarantine people infected immediately and trace their contact.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Jwink]

There is no doubt in my mind the parks aren’t opening May. After yesterday, I’m not sure why anyone would think otherwise.

What happened yesterday?

 

[Jwink]

Update- I don’t know if they did the official union announcement yet but my husband’s should be effective the 18th as well. They said they’re fighting for health care etc as well as petitioning the governor to fix the broken system before 77,000 more people have to flood the system.

 

[DCBaker]

The order the Mayor signed is here -

https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/page/file/OrderWorkerProtection20200407.pdf

 

[Calmdownnow]

We have no way of knowing how many people were infected that weekend at WDW. It’s possible some were infected and became symptomatic later once home. We also have no idea how many people were infected and showed no symptoms but spread the virus to others. There’s no way we will ever know any of that information for sure. It’s a purely philosophical debate.

Except Disney knows exactly who was in the Park that night and where they live, and their ages, demographics. There are very few data sets that can place people at specific locations at particular points within the pandemic, but the Magic Bands can. If their data was shared with contract tracing researchers, it would be a very valuable tool for those trying to track how the infection has, or has not, spread. It could actually be a very important contribution to scientific understanding about the how the infection spreads. If I was a researcher, I would be very excited about trying to persuade Disney to share that data.

 

[kpilcher]

Indeed. Our airport is looking at a 1/3 drop in passengers for this calendar year. They mentioned years before getting back to this years original projection.

We are waiting for confirmation from GOAA (airport authority) but the Orlando Sentinel says passenger count is down 97% at MCO (OIA)

 

[GoofGoof]

Except Disney knows exactly who was in the Park that night and where they live, and their ages, demographics. There are very few data sets that can place people at specific locations at particular points within the pandemic, but the Magic Bands can. If their data was shared with contract tracing researchers, it would be a very valuable tool for those trying to track how the infection has, or has not, spread. It could actually be a very important contribution to scientific understanding about the how the infection spreads. If I was a researcher, I would be very excited about trying to persuade Disney to share that data.

There’s less than a 0.0001% chance they would share that data with anyone and Disney has no idea who got sick. It’s not like there’s a public database of those infected. It would be fascinating to merge both sets of data to see if and how the virus spread but it’s never going to happen.

 

[Calmdownnow]

It would be fascinating to merge both sets of data to see if and how the virus spread but it’s never going to happen.

Why not? If Disney wants public money to keep some of its businesses afloat, why would the government give that money if the company didn't play ball by providing data that would help the country?
Edit: Also, couldn't the application of the Defense Production Act insist that they provide the data, or does the Act only apply to physical items and not knowledge?

 

[peter11435]

Why not? If Disney wants public money to keep some of its businesses afloat, why would the government give that money if the company didn't play ball by providing data that would help the country?

Well first off not all guests have magicbands and not all tickets are associated with specific individuals. So Disney doesn’t actually know who every guest in the park was let alone any of their other personal information. However the biggest issues would revolve around privacy and what exactly is included in the privacy terms and conditions provided by Disney when guests provided their personal information to Disney.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why not? If Disney wants public money to keep some of its businesses afloat, why would the government give that money if the company didn't play ball by providing data that would help the country?
Edit: Also, couldn't the application of the Defense Production Act insist that they provide the data, or does the Act only apply to physical items and not knowledge?

Disney doesn’t need public money. If hotel operators get anything it will be government backed loans and Disney can borrow money for dirt cheap now anyway so they aren‘t likely to get much. Even if they did take federal money, are airlines providing customer data to the government? Small businesses? I don’t know much about the defense production act but it seems unlikely that it would require Disney to share private customer information with the government.

 

[Calmdownnow]

However the biggest issues would revolve around privacy and what exactly is included in the privacy terms and conditions provided by Disney when guests provided their personal information to Disney.

If I received a message from Disney asking me to waive any privacy concerns for the greater good, in these circumstances, then I would respond positively, as would 95% of all the others asked for permission.

 

[DisneyCane]

We have no way of knowing how many people were infected that weekend at WDW. It’s possible some were infected and became symptomatic later once home. We also have no idea how many people were infected and showed no symptoms but spread the virus to others. There’s no way we will ever know any of that information for sure. It’s a purely philosophical debate. It’s very likely that if a second wave hits we will be much better prepared to test and quarantine people infected immediately and trace their contact.

Speculating about people infected the last day at WDW is the same as speculating about how many people were infected at spring training games or NBA games neither of which were shut down much sooner.

 

[peter11435]

If I received a message from Disney asking me to waive any privacy concerns for the greater good, in these circumstances, then I would respond positively, as would 95% of all the others asked for permission.

I’m sure you would. But again Disney doesn’t have everyone’s information or contact information even for some they do have information for. Also I wouldn’t throw out percentages you can’t possible know.