Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

You have to remember the 1st month I expect guests staying on property will be less then half full. I have seen lots of folks moving reservations to later in the year. If folks are traveling by air you have a good month before airlines ramp up, add to the fear of folks wanting to travel. I give it a good 60+ days before resorts are even at 70% capacity.

I said earlier in the thread that I don’t see a whole lot of people booking travel for the summer even if things open up. I think a lot of people will do more low key stuff and stay more local. There are probably people with trips already booked in July or August that will consider still going but I don’t see a lot of people booking a trip to WDW today for the summer. That’s the general public, I know Disney park fanatics may be more likely to book sooner. Locals who can drive have a lot more flexibility too. Another factor is come fall when (God willing) schools will be back people may be hesitant to pull kids out of school for a week for a vacation due to all the time missed. This is before factoring in the financial impact of the pandemic. Even people with jobs and the means to travel may hesitate until they are sure the economy will fully recover. I think if you combine all of that it‘s probably 6+ months before crowds are anywhere close to normal and that assumes there’s not a major outbreak or 2nd wave.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

That's an unfair and unreasonable expectation to enforce upon any company.

Yep. Plus, as cold as it sounds, the fact is they've had tragedies occur on property that were very much their fault and have survived the bad press.

 

[John park hopper]

The government has been taking a hit for not having enough ventilators on hand. So I suspect the reaction will be to stock pile all the associated equipment for the next respirator virus that rears its head. We can't predict what type of virus will cause a pandemic the next one could be a highly contagious and virulent enteric virus. The need for ventilators would be low. My point is you can't predict or plan for every potential pandemic and potential causative agent. So yes for somethings we have to be reactive

 

[Lilofan]

Yep. Plus, as cold as it sounds, the fact is they've had tragedies occur on property that were very much their fault and have survived the bad press.

If WDW could keep their dirty laundry under wraps they would do so.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I’ve been saying that for two weeks now... WDW does not open until the majority of the country is under control. How can they control it if 20 states are still hot beds?

Thankfully that doesn't seem like it will be an issue. How many states would qualify as hotbeds even now? NY, NJ, maybe a few others. It's not that bad most places and projections are looking much better than they were even a week ago. The numbers reported for deaths in the US keep coming in under the model's projections. By June 1 you're looking at zeros for almost every state, with many by mid-May. Of course, it's still early...

 

[Lilofan]

Thankfully that doesn't seem like it will be an issue. How many states would qualify as hotbeds even now? NY, NJ, maybe a few others. It's not that bad most places and projections are looking much better than they were even a week ago. The numbers reported for deaths in the US keep coming in under the model's projections. By June 1 you're looking at zeros for almost every state, with many by mid-May. Of course, it's still early...

Have you been following what's going on in Louisiana?

 

[easyrowrdw]

Have you been following what's going on in Louisiana?

I think it's probably in the others category I mentioned. But the latest projections have it peaking in a few days and hitting zero new deaths before the end of the month.

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

I honestly think Disney will do temp checks and nothing more. I don’t think they would ever do virus testing because it just opens up a huge can of liability worms. I don’t know what they’d do if a guest had a fever, though.

I mean, I know it is a completely different situation, but it’s not Disney’s fault if you caught the flu on your trip and it turned into pneumonia and you became extremely ill. Disney is not a necessity, and if you’re going to the park you have to calculate that risk. I just don’t think park-wide testing is feasible, but of course I could be proven wrong.

 

[jmp85]

Citation please.

I have no dog in this fight, but your comment got me curious. Google reveals that a study tied 10,000 suicides to the Great Recession (not sure how exactly they were able to do that). Of course, we've already seen more than 10,000 deaths from COVID19.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Have you been following what's going on in Louisiana?

That's one of the hot spots.
Pennsylvania is extremely low which is boggling my mind.
Philly, a major city hasn't had 100 deaths. IMO that's what's making this thing so hard to follow.

 

[Seanual757]

I said earlier in the thread that I don’t see a whole lot of people booking travel for the summer even if things open up. I think a lot of people will do more low key stuff and stay more local. There are probably people with trips already booked in July or August that will consider still going but I don’t see a lot of people booking a trip to WDW today for the summer. That’s the general public, I know Disney park fanatics may be more likely to book sooner. Locals who can drive have a lot more flexibility too. Another factor is come fall when (God willing) schools will be back people may be hesitant to pull kids out of school for a week for a vacation due to all the time missed. This is before factoring in the financial impact of the pandemic. Even people with jobs and the means to travel may hesitate until they are sure the economy will fully recover. I think if you combine all of that it‘s probably 6+ months before crowds are anywhere close to normal and that assumes there’s not a major outbreak or 2nd wave.

I agree we are lucky we are local so a quick 20 minute drive is not a problem.

The bigger issue besides is health will be the health of Disneys bottom line. The hit they are taking is going to be measured into the Billions and not millions, lower crowds for pretty much the remainder of the year will put a damper on projects. Reflections I can see being postponed until further notice, they can continue the site work and even pour the foundations. I am not sure they will go full tilt on a resort they will not be able to sell out like previous DVC resorts.

The Star wars resort is at a point of no return it will need to be built. But anything further I have a feeling will be put in a holding pattern for the next 6-12 months to see how the economy and world recover.

As stated I have 4 more trips to our DVC resorts this year June, July, September, and November.

The Disney we go to will be totally different for the near future even the next few years I am afraid.

 

[Lilofan]

That's one of the hot spots.
Pennsylvania is extremely low which is boggling my mind.
Philly, a major city hasn't had 100 deaths. IMO that's what's making this thing so hard to follow.

I'm impressed with Philly especially since it is so close to NJ/NY . Probably PA is more cooperative in this pandemic, don't roam, stay at home attitude.

 

[wdwmagic]

Grim news from airline Lufthansa today

The Executive Board of Deutsche Lufthansa AG does not expect the aviation industry to return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels very quickly. According to its assessment, it will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels.

More at https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com...ackage/s/0695cc64-1a64-4939-b409-7da5d5b2c0d3

 

[John park hopper]

I'm impressed with Philly especially since it is so close to NJ/NY . Probably PA is more cooperative in this pandemic, don't roam, stay at home attitude.

Remember Philly is the city of Brotherly Love just living up to their name ---good show Philly

 

[Lilofan]

Remember Philly is the city of Brotherly Love just living up to their name ---good show Philly

Rocky would be proud!

 

[eliza61nyc]

I'm impressed with Philly especially since it is so close to NJ/NY . Probably PA is more cooperative in this pandemic, don't roam, stay at home attitude.

Lilo, I left "impressed" way behind. Lol our city government is the butt of jokes so I'm flabbergasted that they are ahead of the curve.

Lol this is the city that closed down the wrong street for the Superbowl parade.

 

[networkpro]

Remember Philly is the city of Brotherly Love just living up to their name ---good show Philly

Brotherly Love at a Social Distance

 

[marni1971]

Grim news from airline Lufthansa today



More at https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com...ackage/s/0695cc64-1a64-4939-b409-7da5d5b2c0d3

Indeed. Our airport is looking at a 1/3 drop in passengers for this calendar year. They mentioned years before getting back to this years original projection.

 

[hopemax]

That's one of the hot spots.
Pennsylvania is extremely low which is boggling my mind.
Philly, a major city hasn't had 100 deaths. IMO that's what's making this thing so hard to follow.

I would take this as as sign that the lockdowns started before the virus reached a critical mass point, and a later arrival than the "I was sick in January" crowd wants to believe. The social distancing was able to work, instead of starting too late.

 

[thomas998]

I think it's probably in the others category I mentioned. But the latest projections have it peaking in a few days and hitting zero new deaths before the end of the month.

The problem that you will have is that once you relax the lockdown and people start moving about freely again the virus will pick right back up where it left off. Until you have a vaccine you can't stop the spread especially when so many people can be asymptomatic with it. Remember that in some cases a person was shown to still be carrying the virus over 30 days after they stop showing symptoms from having it. So right now there are people with it and by the end of the April assuming they aren't dead they will very likely still be capable of infecting others. It only takes a couple of infected people in any city to start the whole thing over again.

I would be shocked if large gathering places were allowed to be opened in May. Frankly I see no way you could justify opening amusement parks until there is a vaccine... or until we reached the point where an overwhelming majority of the people had already contracted the virus.