Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDoctor]

Hopefully this is going on somewhere but a research lab needs to find some asymptomatic positives and put them in a controlled environment to study how contagious they are and by what means. Does an asymptomatic breathing contain a significant amount of virus? Coughing? Sneezing? Picking their nose and touching things?

Nobody knows how contagious asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic patients are. It is all just guesses and estimates at this point. I would theorize that one of two things is true:

1) They are extremely contagious and a huge percentage of the population has already been infected or;

2) They aren't very contagious and only transmit the virus in rare instances.

When the antibody test is available, if a large percentage come back with antibodies then the answer is likely #1. However, if a large number have antibodies and the answer is #2 then symptomatic patients are extremely contagious and the Ro is much higher than 2.3.

This is one of the million dollar questions. Based on a hunch rather than actual science, I'd say many of us are asymptomatic carriers, closer to the 50% number being floated around.

This is purely anecdotal, but at my wife's work many patients are testing positive without having any visitors. Kinda scary to think that asymptomatic providers are infecting patients, but it's plausible.

 

[Lilofan]

From a public health perspective WDW is wayyyy more risky to open than a local grocery store. Here's an imaginary scenario: person from California comes to WDW, said person is an asymptomatic shedder, bumps up with people from Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, Belgium, Brazil, and South Africa, person unknowingly infects these people, these people now bring back the virus to their community.

It's irresponsible to not acknowledge the huge diversity of places WDW guests are from.

Since guests including myself hardly ever read the little fine print while on vacation , I am sure the Disney legal team is already drafting new verbiage on all things liability. But when you turn on the TV in a hotel room in Orlando there are so many lawsuit commercials advertising their services ( aka Morgan&Morgan).

 

[DisneyDoctor]

Disclaimer: I do not want to reignite a debate about COVID-19 itself. This is just a statement of opinion related specifically to the re-opening of Walt Disney World and Disneyland. Please refrain from political debates about COVID-19 response so that I do not get in trouble with The Mom. Thank you.

The fact is that while it is likely for there to be a vaccine and we hope and pray there is a vaccine, a vaccine is not a 100% guarantee. We also do not know exactly when a vaccine will likely be available to the general public beyond clinical trials and emergency use cases. Also, while there are some potential treatments that show initial promise, we also do not know with any certainty where those trials may lead. In other words, there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future of COVID-19.

But here's the thing. Our social distancing measures are designed as a short-term measure to help flatten the curve and allow our medical system to cope and, thereby, to save lives that would have been lost if the system couldn't cope. But it is not meant to be a long-term solution to the problem. You simply cannot keep the country shut down and people isolated from one another indefinitely. No, I'm not one of those suggesting we need to just open things back up right now. I think what we are doing makes sense. But we can't be in this same place a year from now. It's just not possible.

At some point, people are going to demand to have their recreation and entertainment options available to them once again, and many people will make the risk assessment for themselves that they are willing to risk exposure, vaccine or not. With that kind of pent up demand, I just do not see a company like Disney continuing to stay shut down and refusing to serve those paying customers. I could be wrong. But while I certainly think those who are expecting WDW to reopen in May are way off the mark, I also think those who are predicting it could be shut down for 18 months are wrong as well. My uneducated best guess? Mid-summer and you will start to see the parks open again.

I was going to suggest August.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

Since guests including myself hardly ever read the little fine print while on vacation , I am sure the Disney legal team is already drafting new verbiage on all things liability. But when you turn on the TV in the hotel room in Orlando there are so many lawsuit commercials advertising their services ( aka Morgan&Morgan).

I'm afraid that may happen. Disney may open WDW and the other parks and protect themselves legally from worsening the outbreak. But, they could be worsening the situation on a national scale. Seems like a horribly immoral thing to do (open before it's deemed safe to do so), but I doubt that's what the board cares about.

 

[Polynesia]

From a public health perspective WDW is wayyyy more risky to open than a local grocery store. Here's an imaginary scenario: person from California comes to WDW, said person is an asymptomatic shedder, bumps up with people from Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, Belgium, Brazil, and South Africa, person unknowingly infects these people, these people now bring back the virus to their community.

It's irresponsible to not acknowledge the huge diversity of places WDW guests are from.

That’s why it is important that all states have reached their peak and the downward curve before people travel between extensively between states. That goes for international travel. It would be irresponsible to open it up while some countries have not seen their down turn. And in Florida you will have people from all over the globe in your grocery stores if international travel is opened. They don’t all just stay contained on a theme park property.

 

[marni1971]

Limiting transportation numbers riding on Disney transportation options even though inevitable, would be a nightmare for a family if they are trying to plan a dining reservation at location B if they are at location A, unless multiple buses are coming every few minutes. The traffic around the locals roads in WDW is challenging already.

That family, and others like them, will have to plan not to want to go from A to B for a while. It’ll be a new normal for the foreseeable.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I'm afraid that may happen. Disney may open WDW and the other parks and protect themselves legally from worsening the outbreak. But, they could be worsening the situation on a national scale. Seems like a horribly immoral thing to do (open before it's deemed safe to do so), but I doubt that's what the board cares about.

I don’t believe Disney will open any park until they have absolute assurance it is safe and morally reasonable. They are a business yes. And they can draft legal verbiage to exempt them of legal responsibility... but if even one child got sick and died, and it was traced to one of the parks; they wouldn’t survive the media and social fire storm.

 

[DCBaker]

As expected...

Disney Canceling Resort Reservations Through Early May

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

 

[Seanual757]

This sounds about right to me at this time. The only things I would add is limiting capacity at restaurants with moving tables at least 6 feet apart and potentially requiring counter service meals to be ordered via the app. There will probably also be changes to transportation. Limiting the number of people on a bus or boat. Large shows and fireworks are also in jeopardy of being on hold for a little while.

Like you said its still 8 weeks away. Lots can change. Even a week ago the federal guidelines were that people should not wear masks unless they were medical workers or directly caring for a sick person. Now they are suggesting everyone wears a mask when in public. That could change again in 8 weeks or other things we aren‘t even thinking of will come up.

Yes I agree on the transportation as well as restaurants.

I believe with the limited amount of guests for the 1st few weeks this will be easy for Disney and it will allow them to work out the kinks.

Table service will be easy if they cannot order from the app we may see Plexiglas installed in front of the cashiers.

Quick refill stations will need to be cleaned constantly

Again it can and will be done.

Busses will have limited access and seating no standing and every other seat or every 2 seats. Monorails limited to a certain number in cabins, the Skyliners family’s only in each car. Again not really a problem the 1st few weeks.

Remember air travel has been cut so people will not be able to fly in until airlines increase seats so you could be looking at July to August before airlines add planes to routes. This will help keep capacity lower. Now people may opt to drive in so they do not have to mess with flying. I can tell you planes are sprayed daily and they will be after each flight.

 

[jmp85]

From a public health perspective WDW is wayyyy more risky to open than a local grocery store. Here's an imaginary scenario: person from California comes to WDW, said person is an asymptomatic shedder, bumps up with people from Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, Belgium, Brazil, and South Africa, person unknowingly infects these people, these people now bring back the virus to their community.

It's irresponsible to not acknowledge the huge diversity of places WDW guests are from.

Couldn't you make the same argument about many of the nation's beaches? People from all across the country visit local beaches/bars/restaurants.

 

[marni1971]

Remember air travel has been cut so people will not be able to fly in until airlines increase seats so you could be looking at July to August before airlines add planes to routes. This will help keep capacity lower. Now people may opt to drive in so they do not have to mess with flying. I can tell you planes are sprayed daily and they will be after each flight.

Jet2 in the UK have announced they plan on starting up their flight schedule mid June. How they got this date remains to be seen, but if they do you can bet the others that are able to will do the same.

 

[wdwmagic]

Look at the website that shall not be named.... Disney just implemented many price increases at their restaurants across the board. For example, the bacon cheeseburger at Ale and Compass went from $13 to $18...

The Bacon Cheeseburger was $18 since at least November 2018

Ale and Compass Restaurant Menus

Ale and Compass Restaurant Menus

www.wdwmagic.com

Price changes are likely though, many would have been planned before the closures, and likely some as a result of.

 

[John park hopper]

If Disney is going to rely on the down slop of the curve to determine when to open --what curve do they go by because every part of the country is going to have a different curve.

 

[Lilofan]

Yes I agree on the transportation as well as restaurants.

I believe with the limited amount of guests for the 1st few weeks this will be easy for Disney and it will allow them to work out the kinks.

Table service will be easy if they cannot order from the app we may see Plexiglas installed in front of the cashiers.

Quick refill stations will need to be cleaned constantly

Again it can and will be done.

Busses will have limited access and seating no standing and every other seat or every 2 seats. Monorails limited to a certain number in cabins, the Skyliners family’s only in each car. Again not really a problem the 1st few weeks.

Remember air travel has been cut so people will not be able to fly in until airlines increase seats so you could be looking at July to August before airlines add planes to routes. This will help keep capacity lower. Now people may opt to drive in so they do not have to mess with flying. I can tell you planes are sprayed daily and they will be after each flight.

No standing in Disney busses when the park closes and thousands of guests depart all at once would be a logical nightmare and perhaps not enough busses when the tired guests all want to get back to their hotel.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

Couldn't you make the same argument about many of the nation's beaches? People from all across the country visit local beaches/bars/restaurants.

Yes, and I would.

 

[Horizons '83]

Look at the website that shall not be named.... Disney just implemented many price increases at their restaurants across the board. For example, the bacon cheeseburger at Ale and Compass went from $13 to $18...

The burger has been $18 for a while now. I paid that back in January 2019 and on our most recent trip in February.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

If Disney is going to rely on the down slop of the curve to determine when to open --what curve do they go by because every part of the country is going to have a different curve.

Florida seems like the only logical answer.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

Although if your hunch is correct it means covid-19 is far less deadly than thought. It would basically mean it is very serious in a very tiny percentage of patients but pretty much nothing for 99.9% of the population.

I do believe that could be the case. I think we'd be surprised by the amount of positive cases in our communities. Again, purely based on anecdotal observation.

 

[Polynesia]

Couldn't you make the same argument about many of the nation's beaches? People from all across the country visit local beaches/bars/restaurants.

It can be said of almost anywhere that a tourist goes. People and the media tend to focus more on Disney than other areas. Take a look at Miami as an example with the spring breakers. I’ve said this before, but it’s curious you don’t hear of large numbers of cast members that have gotten sick. The media in Orlando would have blasted that news out if it happened.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

That’s why it is important that all states have reached their peak and the downward curve before people travel between extensively between states. That goes for international travel. It would be irresponsible to open it up while some countries have not seen their down turn. And in Florida you will have people from all over the globe in your grocery stores if international travel is opened. They don’t all just stay contained on a theme park property.

I'm not sure what you're arguing here.

A grocery store has a max capacity of a couple hundred maybe and social distancing can still be of use. Magic Kingdom has 100x that capacity and it'd be impossible to enact social distancing.