Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[jmp85]

Yes, and I would.

That's a reasonable take then. I just think that the country as a whole will be hard pressed to essentially shut down the tourism industry indefinitely. I guess we'll see.

 

[John park hopper]

Florida seems like the only logical answer.

Open for Florida residents closed to all others ? Open for Florida residents but closed to to sections of the country that have not reached the down slop. Logistics and PR nightmare

 

[Polynesia]

If Disney is going to rely on the down slop of the curve to determine when to open --what curve do they go by because every part of the country is going to have a different curve.

Travel between states should be curtailed until all states have reached their down slope. I’m sure New York wouldn’t appreciate Floridians in their state presently as they’re starting their downward curve. Looking at graphs it appears most activity should be minimal by June and almost nothing going on by July.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Open for Florida residents closed to all others ? Open for Florida residents but closed to to sections of the country that have not reached the down slop. Logistics and PR nightmare

I’ve been saying that for two weeks now... WDW does not open until the majority of the country is under control. How can they control it if 20 states are still hot beds?

 

[John park hopper]

Travel between states should be curtailed until all states have reached their down slope. I’m sure New York wouldn’t appreciate Floridians in their state presently as they’re starting their downward curve. Looking at graphs it appears most activity should be minimal by June and almost nothing going on by July.

Pray you are correct

 

[DisneyDoctor]

That's a reasonable take then. I just think that the country as a whole will be hard pressed to essentially shut down the tourism industry indefinitely. I guess we'll see.

I agree. I get that it messes with jobs though as well. It’s a tough decision to make, that’s for sure.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

This is pretty spot on regarding what is most likely going to happen and what the stay-at-home orders were designed for. The economic and political pressure will be too great once the peaks have been certainly shown to have pass to keep things shut down. Yes, there may be subsequent waves that will have to be dealt with but I think the expectation is that everyone has learned from this experience and will be a lot more prepared the next time around.

If you watch the next pandemic on Netflix, which I saw yesterday, they were saying that exact thing. Was recorded in November of last year and part of it was a few talking heads saying how much they learned from SARS. I’m guessing we did but in no way we were prepared for this. Cost money to stockpile and prepare for these things which we never do. We are a reactionary country not a preventative one. So we will learn from Covid, but I’m guessing it will happen again and again from time to time.

 

[Disney Analyst]

If you watch the next pandemic on Netflix, which I saw yesterday, they were saying that exact thing. Was recorded in November of last year and part of it was a few talking heads saying how much they learned from SARS. I’m guessing we did but in no way we were prepared for this. Cost money to stockpile and prepare for these things which we never do. We are a reactionary country not a preventative one. So we will learn from Covid, but I’m guessing it will happen again and again from time to time.

Also if you watch Pandemic you’ll see how they were fighting for funding as much was cut... I bet everyone’s kicking themselves for that now.

 

[GoofGoof]

No standing in Disney busses when the park closes and thousands of guests depart all at once would be a logical nightmare and perhaps not enough busses when the tired guests all want to get back to their hotel.

Yes, a logistical nightmare. Just like cutting capacity in popular restaurants. For transport that basically means long lines for some resorts. People will either wait in line, use an Uber service or call it a day earlier to beat the park close crowds. That‘s why they are calling it opening the parks with a modified experience. Still better than nothing.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Although if your hunch is correct it means covid-19 is far less deadly than thought. It would basically mean it is very serious in a very tiny percentage of patients but pretty much nothing for 99.9% of the population.

And absolutely devastating to millions of family and friends of the people who died. Every deaths effects so many.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Yes, a logistical nightmare. Just like cutting capacity in popular restaurants. For transport that basically means long lines for some resorts. People will either wait in line, use an Uber service or call it a day earlier to beat the park close crowds. That‘s why they are calling it opening the parks with a modified experience. Still better than nothing.

That’s another reason to cut fireworks, parades, and other nightime shows. The whole point of fireworks is to keep people in the park till close, without them, people will naturally spread out their departure.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

Open for Florida residents closed to all others ? Open for Florida residents but closed to to sections of the country that have not reached the down slop. Logistics and PR nightmare

Open with screening into the parks and resorts. The home state of the employee base has to be safe.

 

[hopemax]

Hopefully this is going on somewhere but a research lab needs to find some asymptomatic positives and put them in a controlled environment to study how contagious they are and by what means. Does an asymptomatic breathing contain a significant amount of virus? Coughing? Sneezing? Picking their nose and touching things?

Nobody knows how contagious asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic patients are. It is all just guesses and estimates at this point. I would theorize that one of two things is true:

1) They are extremely contagious and a huge percentage of the population has already been infected or;

2) They aren't very contagious and only transmit the virus in rare instances.

When the antibody test is available, if a large percentage come back with antibodies then the answer is likely #1. However, if a large number have antibodies and the answer is #2 then symptomatic patients are extremely contagious and the Ro is much higher than 2.3.

Many, many pages ago I mentioned a German study involving a plane of people returning from Israel. The viral load in the samples from asymptotic people was higher than those with symptoms.

They have been studying this. The results from asymptotic people is a big factor into why everything got locked down so suddenly. And why people were face palming at the Georgia governor who claimed he just found out about the risks of asymptotic people right before he finally issued Georgia’s stay at home order. Asymptotic spread is also the reason they changed the guideline and we are supposed to be wearing masks when we go out now.

So I am going to postulate option #3. The first part of your option 1. But we figured it out just in time so the spread had not reached a critical mass point. Our actions did affect the outcome, and aside from NY, Nola and Seattle the virus arrived later than the lay people think it did, in most communities. And the number of people who will test positive for antibodies is somewhere between your two scenarios.

Which leaves a ton of wiggle room to continue to argue about the appropriate course of action. In the past and going forward.

 

[GoofGoof]

Travel between states should be curtailed until all states have reached their down slope. I’m sure New York wouldn’t appreciate Floridians in their state presently as they’re starting their downward curve. Looking at graphs it appears most activity should be minimal by June and almost nothing going on by July.

The only word of caution on that is the popular model everyone is quoting that shows most of the cases gone in July assumes we continue full social distancing through the end of May. If there’s a strong push to open things earlier we may not see those results. I hope everyone stays patient and diligent and follows through on this.

 

[Seanual757]

No standing in Disney busses when the park closes and thousands of guests depart all at once would be a logical nightmare and perhaps not enough busses when the tired guests all want to get back to their hotel.

You have to remember the 1st month I expect guests staying on property will be less then half full. I have seen lots of folks moving reservations to later in the year. If folks are traveling by air you have a good month before airlines ramp up, add to the fear of folks wanting to travel. I give it a good 60+ days before resorts are even at 70% capacity.

 

[Seanual757]

Jet2 in the UK have announced they plan on starting up their flight schedule mid June. How they got this date remains to be seen, but if they do you can bet the others that are able to will do the same.

International air travel to the US is still restricted so that is a non issue at this time.

 

[marni1971]

International air travel to the US is still restricted so that is a non issue at this time.

A lot of things are at this time.

 

[Polynesia]

The only word of caution on that is the popular model everyone is quoting that shows most of the cases gone in July assumes we continue full social distancing through the end of May. If there’s a strong push to open things earlier we may not see those results. I hope everyone stays patient and diligent and follows through on this.

I hope so, too. I think the majority of people see the payoff by doing this through May. In fact, I think social distancing may become the norm for many people for quite awhile. I know I won’t just drop doing it when things start to open up. People will continue to wash their hands more and cover their coughs or sneezes. All of this will go a long way in helping. Never again will I be without sanitizer and a small stash of toilet paper which is very hard to find where I live in Florida. I was thrilled to get a care package from my daughter in another state that contained these items. How far we’ve come in a month in realizing what’s important.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I don’t believe Disney will open any park until they have absolute assurance it is safe and morally reasonable. They are a business yes. And they can draft legal verbiage to exempt them of legal responsibility... but if even one child got sick and died, and it was traced to one of the parks; they wouldn’t survive the media and social fire storm.

That's an unfair and unreasonable expectation to enforce upon any company.

 

[Lilofan]

I hope so, too. I think the majority of people see the payoff by doing this through May. In fact, I think social distancing may become the norm for many people for quite awhile. I know I won’t just drop doing it when things start to open up. People will continue to wash their hands more and cover their coughs or sneezes. All of this will go a long way in helping. Never again will I be without sanitizer and a small stash of toilet paper which is very hard to find where I live in Florida. I was thrilled to get a care package from my daughter in another state that contained these items. How far we’ve come in a month in realizing what’s important.

Very true. We take many things for granted then when we lose access to it all , it is a huge reality check. Then we are grateful when we have it.