Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

The government already basically broke most of the rules leading up to this and haven't gotten caught with their hand in the cookie jar when it comes to monetary policy on debt... but now here comes the haymaker on top of it where we basically will be trying to replace double digit GDP with 'free government money'. The entire US GDP in 2019 was 21 trillion... we basically printed up 10% of that in the OPENING ROUND... they are going to be forced back to that over and over and over in the coming 9-12 months. Literally the country's output is going to drop by 15% or more this quarter alone.. and will keep doing that. That is more than DOUBLE the worst drop in the 2008 recession and tops estimates of GDP failure that lead to the great depression. The great depression we eventually pulled out of after almost TEN YEARS by essentially forced government hiring and spending. The 2008 recession got steadied by the government breaking all the rules with the kinds of debt it took on. It can't do that again... that 'trick' has already been played.

The 'economy' is one thing... demand will come back to the market eventually... but that's not the stink in the closet. The stink here is the very foundation of what our unit of value is grounded in.. the US Government and the schemes it's backing of the dollar are based in.

It's way more complex than most citizens care to understand... they just think "our money is backed by our government". Just look at this eye-opener for people to understand how we basically borrow against ourselves - https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Our government has standing in the global economy based on complex concepts... and we're basically throwing all the limits into the firebox as the fed scrambles to try to prop things up. That isn't something that just 'goes away with time'. We've crossed into uncharted territory and it could be a whole new world order when the smoke clears.

They are doing the right thing 'right now' because its the only thing that really can be done... but reality is no one can really nail down what the consequences to the backing of the US dollar will be under these kinds of pressures. We've never been here... and 'fixing it' is not simply found by people starting to go out to the movies, or visiting Disneyworld.

In this situation the only thing that might save the day is that all countries will have to do the same thing so the relative values of the currencies should remain relatively constant.

The big risk of printing trillions is inflation getting out of control. That will do enormous damage because, in real terms, people will have and earn less. That can have long term consequences of lowering quality of life for hundreds of millions of people.

That's why, at some point soon a pragmatic decision needs to be made. Some amount of deaths that can be prevented by the economy being shut down have to be accepted in order to bring the economy back.

We can not go on for long paying tens of millions of people not to produce and contribute to GDP.

If you look at this in terms of a war, all wars have casualties. The enemy is a tiny particle instead of a giant army. When an army attacks, the goal is to destroy the country it is attacking. That's what this virus is doing even though it doesn't "know" what it is doing. We have to fight back and not allow this to happen.

In a normal war the casualties are soldiers. In this war, the casualties are people that randomly get infected. However, just like the military makes a projection of casualties and the President determines how many casualties winning the war is worth, the President must determine how many deaths from COVID-19 are acceptable to save the country (in the form of the economy).

It's not a pleasant or heartwarming thought but it is reality. On that very uplifting note, it's time to get some sleep.

 

[davidfarley]

The government already basically broke most of the rules leading up to this and haven't gotten caught with their hand in the cookie jar when it comes to monetary policy on debt... but now here comes the haymaker on top of it where we basically will be trying to replace double digit GDP with 'free government money'. The entire US GDP in 2019 was 21 trillion... we basically printed up 10% of that in the OPENING ROUND... they are going to be forced back to that over and over and over in the coming 9-12 months. Literally the country's output is going to drop by 15% or more this quarter alone.. and will keep doing that. That is more than DOUBLE the worst drop in the 2008 recession and tops estimates of GDP failure that lead to the great depression. The great depression we eventually pulled out of after almost TEN YEARS by essentially forced government hiring and spending. The 2008 recession got steadied by the government breaking all the rules with the kinds of debt it took on. It can't do that again... that 'trick' has already been played.

The 'economy' is one thing... demand will come back to the market eventually... but that's not the stink in the closet. The stink here is the very foundation of what our unit of value is grounded in.. the US Government and the schemes it's backing of the dollar are based in.

It's way more complex than most citizens care to understand... they just think "our money is backed by our government". Just look at this eye-opener for people to understand how we basically borrow against ourselves - https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Our government has standing in the global economy based on complex concepts... and we're basically throwing all the limits into the firebox as the fed scrambles to try to prop things up. That isn't something that just 'goes away with time'. We've crossed into uncharted territory and it could be a whole new world order when the smoke clears.

They are doing the right thing 'right now' because its the only thing that really can be done... but reality is no one can really nail down what the consequences to the backing of the US dollar will be under these kinds of pressures. We've never been here... and 'fixing it' is not simply found by people starting to go out to the movies, or visiting Disneyworld.

I've long thought the house of cards was going to fall. Our current situation may push us over the edge.

 

[WDWTrojan]

If they restrict the opening to on site guests only they could administer the Abbot fast test upon check in and prevent the bottleneck getting into the parks. Granted the parks would not be at full capacity but initially wouldn't that be best

"Welcome to Walt Disney World, allow me to stick this swab up your nose." Just not going to happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

"Welcome to Walt Disney World, allow me to stick this swab up your nose." Just not going to happen.

Depends how bad people want to go. A month ago I would have said hell no and we would have laughed it off as a serious conversation. 3 weeks into my “lockdown“ and I’d take a swab to the nose right now just to get my hair cut I do agree that it probably won’t happen because they will never force people to do it and if you don’t do everyone what’s the point.

 

[GoofGoof]

The government already basically broke most of the rules leading up to this and haven't gotten caught with their hand in the cookie jar when it comes to monetary policy on debt... but now here comes the haymaker on top of it where we basically will be trying to replace double digit GDP with 'free government money'. The entire US GDP in 2019 was 21 trillion... we basically printed up 10% of that in the OPENING ROUND... they are going to be forced back to that over and over and over in the coming 9-12 months. Literally the country's output is going to drop by 15% or more this quarter alone.. and will keep doing that. That is more than DOUBLE the worst drop in the 2008 recession and tops estimates of GDP failure that lead to the great depression. The great depression we eventually pulled out of after almost TEN YEARS by essentially forced government hiring and spending. The 2008 recession got steadied by the government breaking all the rules with the kinds of debt it took on. It can't do that again... that 'trick' has already been played.

The 'economy' is one thing... demand will come back to the market eventually... but that's not the stink in the closet. The stink here is the very foundation of what our unit of value is grounded in.. the US Government and the schemes it's backing of the dollar are based in.

It's way more complex than most citizens care to understand... they just think "our money is backed by our government". Just look at this eye-opener for people to understand how we basically borrow against ourselves - https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Our government has standing in the global economy based on complex concepts... and we're basically throwing all the limits into the firebox as the fed scrambles to try to prop things up. That isn't something that just 'goes away with time'. We've crossed into uncharted territory and it could be a whole new world order when the smoke clears.

They are doing the right thing 'right now' because its the only thing that really can be done... but reality is no one can really nail down what the consequences to the backing of the US dollar will be under these kinds of pressures. We've never been here... and 'fixing it' is not simply found by people starting to go out to the movies, or visiting Disneyworld.

Once we stabilize things it’s going to take years to dig out of this. The national debt is a big problem that needs addressing.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Depends how bad people want to go. A month ago I would have said hell no and we would have laughed it off as a serious conversation. 3 weeks into my “lockdown“ and I’d take a swab to the nose right now just to get my hair cut I do agree that it probably won’t happen because they will never force people to do it and if you don’t do everyone what’s the point.

The issue is not just how un-magical it is, it's also matter of cost and practicality. Are you keeping everyone captive on property? What if a family takes an Uber to Applebee's and gets it from the server? Are you swabbing every cast member at the start of their shift? It's just not feasible.

 

[celluloid]

The issue is not just how un-magical it is, it's also matter of cost and practicality. Are you keeping everyone captive on property? What if a family takes an Uber to Applebee's and gets it from the server? Are you swabbing every cast member at the start of their shift? It's just not feasible.

Not to mention the cost and liability. Sticking something that far into someone's nasal and throat passage is not the same as scanning a fingerprint.

 

[GoofGoof]

The issue is not just how un-magical it is, it's also matter of cost and practicality. Are you keeping everyone captive on property? What if a family takes an Uber to Applebee's and gets it from the server? Are you swabbing every cast member at the start of their shift? It's just not feasible.

I agree it’s not practical to do. In China when things first starting opening back up they were doing a lot of temperature scans. I saw an interview where an exec for YUM (parent company for KFC, Taco Bell aNd Pizza Hut) said they were scanning all employees at the start of their shift for fever and all customers as they came in the door. When you ordered food your receipt listed the server helping you and their temp at the start of the shift. Obviously a few Tylenol could mask a fever and we now know that you can still pass the virus on without symptoms so temp scanners don’t seem worth implementing. If we can’t know who is virus free the only choice is preventive measures like the ones listed on the main page and/or masks.

 

[celluloid]

And of we are questioning a world that reopened with extreme measures, we have not even begun to ponder how difficult/infeasible things like masks would be on water rides or in water parks(which I figure will be the last to reopen anyway) Water on a ride splashing off of your face or hands and into someone elses. The first thing people instinctvly do is wipe their face and a mask is either going to fly off or be compromised.

 

[GoofGoof]

And of we are questioning a world that reopened with extreme measures, we have not even begun to ponder how difficult/infeasible things like masks would be on water rides or in water parks(which I figure will be the last to reopen anyway) Water on a ride splashing off of your face or hands and into someone elses. The first thing people instinctvly do is wipe their face and a mask is either going to fly off or be compromised.

A valid point. Maybe water rides don‘t open right away for that reason. The heat alone in Florida in the summer is enough to make masks difficult anyway. It’s hot enough without covering your face. I would save on sunblock though I’m still not convinced masks will catch on and become main stream anyway. It’s too early to tell.

 

[celluloid]

A valid point. Maybe water rides don‘t open right away for that reason. The heat alone in Florida in the summer is enough to make masks difficult anyway. It’s hot enough without covering your face. I would save on sunblock though I’m still not convinced masks will catch on and become main stream anyway. It’s too early to tell.

I think it will be a 50/50 for awhile. Aside from the choking hazards and other issues with rides and security, a lot will be incorrect procedure practing who keep it as a security blanket. The kind of people with the mentality that presume you catch every disease from the toilet seat.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe not possible to plan ahead, but if the plan is currently to flatten out the demand curve, there would seem to be steps that could help anticipate, reduce, and monitor the spread of this virus at WDW. One step could include absolutely everyone (Guests, CMs, CP, and all persons entering the property) gets tested. They practically have a magic band for everyone, maybe a rapid test too. Seems to have helped in South Korea and Germany. All guests have to pass thru tapstiles, maybe something there. FLIR or similar temperature sensitive imaging devices could supplement the CCTV security camera systems. Staggered seating and/or waiting. We never said it would be easy but we refuse to believe it will never be possible to re-open.

That’s taking a lot of chances...and operating some sophisticated equipment that no frontlines can pull off.

Have you used a flir? I have and they are not as easy as you think.

But your talking about quarantine airlocks and rapid tests...all stuff that won’t play too well.

Here’s a question: what if someone fails? “Sorry you came this way and you have an ear infection...but we have to be safe so we’re quarantining you at all stars...”

No that’s just wrong. I’ve read through some of your posts and you have some incredibly odd notions about the law.

Though I don’t agree with his simplistic stance...exposure is a major factor in park operations...even if they run the Orange County kangaroo courts.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Once we stabilize things it’s going to take years to dig out of this. The national debt is a big problem that needs addressing.

Cocoa Puffs has been racking it up...we’ve had drunken regimes doing it before...we’re worried about this now?

I would have worried at $5 trillion...arent we at like $21??

There’s gonna be at least another $2 tril bill before summer...it’s inevitable. And if all goes well it stabilizes. But I heard some economists saying you have to do a double dip recession on purpose in a few years to try and repair the damage...

Just a tiny microsocopic, oil coated virus cell...that’s what did this. That’s how much our modern, rigged society is on the “edge of the sword”

 

[Rich Brownn]

SARS has a 9% mortality rate which is incredibly high, but it's incubation can be as long as 10 days. With more than 90% of those infected surviving it certainly isn't contained by its mortality rate.

It also is most infectious with the severely ill, and gets less infectious with each person passed to. So it was relatively easy to spot as well.

 

[GoofGoof]

The general public doesn’t seem too convinced normal life will be back by June 1. If the daily routine isn’t back how many are going to plan a vacation?

Fewer than half of Americans believe their daily routine will return to normal by June, as fears over coronavirus rise: POLL

Fewer than half of Americans believe their regular daily routine will return to normal by June 1 amid sharply rising concerns over contracting the novel coronavirus according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday. In the new poll, just over nine in 10 Americans now say that the outbreak...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The general public doesn’t seem too convinced normal life will be back by June 1. If the daily routine isn’t back how many are going to plan a vacation?

Fewer than half of Americans believe their daily routine will return to normal by June, as fears over coronavirus rise: POLL

Fewer than half of Americans believe their regular daily routine will return to normal by June 1 amid sharply rising concerns over contracting the novel coronavirus according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday. In the new poll, just over nine in 10 Americans now say that the outbreak...

www.yahoo.com

This idea of rolling out the carpets and shouting “OPEN FOR BUSINESS!” on an arbitrary date is insane. It’s not gonna happen. Can’t “flip the switch”

How do we know? Hong Kong tinkered with it and backed off...japan is kinda trying it and that’s not going well.

And I have a feeling it’s not gonna go in Europe either.

I get the sinking suspicion the “restart” here is long away...it’s a mess of bad leadership, economic disaster and a whole big scoop of awful political timing on top.

Disney is watching and I bet they don’t like their analysis/tipster network

 

[Nunu]

A valid point. Maybe water rides don‘t open right away for that reason. The heat alone in Florida in the summer is enough to make masks difficult anyway. It’s hot enough without covering your face. I would save on sunblock though I’m still not convinced masks will catch on and become main stream anyway. It’s too early to tell.

We had to go to the supermarket today, all shoppers are required to wear a face mask to be allowed inside. We did our shopping as fast as we could, still, the face mask felt hot after a few minutes. I guess one gets used to it in time, and we'll keep using it to do errands and every time we're outside as a precaution, of course. Now, about having to wear one for hours, in Florida, while on vacation, that doesn't sound very practical to me.

My appreciation and admiration for medical personnel everywhere, continues to grow with each passing day.

 

[domdisney]

I do agree health first over anything. There are just so many things to factor in. When do you guys think College Program participants will be able to go. May seems unlikely...it would be crazy to me if they just canceled the whole program. I mean if things don’t get better soon and come fall it’s still and then yeah I’d get it. But who knows right. Idk sorry if it’s a little off topic, I’m just trying to prepare myself for the inevitable.

 

[marni1971]

I’m honestly not sure when or IF Paris opens again? Not only are the finances a mess...but Europe was and still is the most susceptible to suffer more damage from this and has already been catastrophic so far.

The best thing that happened to protect Paris was TWDC taking over.

Once we stabilize things it’s going to take years to dig out of this. The national debt is a big problem that needs addressing.

On a brighter note, the US won’t be alone.

The general public doesn’t seem too convinced normal life will be back by June 1.

They’re correct. It won’t be. There may some semblance of relaxed rules but “normal” is a long long way off.

 

[WDW862]

On a brighter note, the US won’t be alone.

Economically speaking, the US will probably be far better off than most countries, considering that all other currencies are based off of USD. The national debt isn't as big of a deal as our politicians want you think.