Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ImperfectPixie]

If you carry on scrolling to the bottom slide it shows a flattened curve with total deaths projected on May 22nd equaling 87,838, but total deaths projected for August 2nd at 93,531 and no projection beyond that date as yet. That is what the flattened curve means -- deaths continue at a high (but more stable, flattened growth) rate. They don't just hit the peak and then stop.

That bottom total deaths projected reaches 93,531 on July 15 and maintains that number through the end of the chart.

 

[GoofGoof]

If you carry on scrolling to the bottom slide it shows a flattened curve with total deaths projected on May 22nd equaling 87,838, but total deaths projected for August 2nd at 93,531 and no projection beyond that date as yet. That is what the flattened curve means -- deaths continue at a high (but more stable, flattened growth) rate. They don't just hit the peak and then stop.

From July 16 to August 4 there’s no new deaths. The total hits 93,531 July 15. That’s what he was talking about saying we won’t be out of this until July or August. That model also assumes social distancing in place through May.

edit: I am not saying the parks can’t open until deaths hit zero. I think there is some level of risk people will accept. Is that number 100 or 50 a day who knows. By June 1 the number on that particular model is 222. Is that low enough? Maybe. By June 10 it drops under 100. I don’t know when the trigger gets pulled but it will be sometime after peak. These models are only projections based on assumptions and incomplete facts so they could be way off (hopefully in the right direction).

 

[willtravel]

We're going to owe the company my husband works for money when this is all said and done. They covered our portion of the health benefits for two weeks, but since then, the rest is on us. So yes, unemployment and the federal money will help, but it still sucks. $200 per week for family coverage.

Mine $1250. for 2 a month.

 

[domdisney]

Hey does anyone know the update on the 2020 FALL ADVANTAGE and FALL participants for the Disney College Program fue to the virus? I start in May and I haven’t heard a single thing! I’m so nervous, I really hope that I can still go on my program!

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Mine $1250. for 2 a month.

We tend to have a fairly crappy plan with a big deductible...his company shops for insurance every year at the last minute, so our plan changes EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

 

[peter11435]

Hey does anyone know the update on the 2020 FALL ADVANTAGE and FALL participants for the Disney College Program fue to the virus? I start in May and I haven’t heard a single thing! I’m so nervous, I really hope that I can still go on my program!

You likely won’t be starting in May.

 

[Slpy3270]

Calling it: come summer when it becomes clear the curve won't be flattened due to refusal by citizens to comply with lockdown rules, Disney will preemptively file for bankruptcy and sell everything to vulture capitalists.

 

[peter11435]

Calling it: come summer when it becomes clear the curve won't be flattened due to refusal by citizens to comply with lockdown rules, Disney will preemptively file for bankruptcy and sell everything to vulture capitalists.

Hopefully you don’t gamble

 

[Slpy3270]

Hopefully you don’t gamble

The stock market is a giant gambling table. So far the optimists are losing.

 

[Tom P.]

The stock market is a giant gambling table. So far the optimists are losing.

The stock market is not a gamble over the long term. There has never been a ten year period in history where the stock market lost money. People who lose money are people who panic when stock prices fall and sell. Those who stayed in lost nothing after 9/11 and nothing during the 2008 recession. The circumstances that cause the market to rise and fall change, of course, and the duration of each downturn is different. But in this case, as in all others, the United States economy will recover and the stock market will rise again.

 

[peter11435]

The stock market is a giant gambling table. So far the optimists are losing.

Stay away from the table

 

[DisneyCane]

The stock market is not a gamble over the long term. There has never been a ten year period in history where the stock market lost money. People who lose money are people who panic when stock prices fall and sell. Those who stayed in lost nothing after 9/11 and nothing during the 2008 recession. The circumstances that cause the market to rise and fall change, of course, and the duration of each downturn is different. But in this case, as in all others, the United States economy will recover and the stock market will rise again.

Overall you will end up making money. In 2008 my portfolio was down 40% and I just rode it out and it is worth more right now than if I would have sold then. However, a few companies that I either owned stock in or bonds issued by went bankrupt. Most of them that I owned their bonds I ended up with some stock when the emerged from bankruptcy but the ones I owned stock in that went bankrupt lost money even though I didn't panic sell.

That's why it's important to be diversified as well as not panic.

 

[DisneyCane]

This is the model I think he was talking about. Shows July 16th new deaths at zero per day. I don’t disagree that the pandemic is not over. It won’t be completely over until we have a vaccine.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

The problem with this virus is the asymptomatic spread (to whatever extent it happens). If we social distance until 0 deaths per day and then open things back up like before there is bound to be another outbreak. With past pandemic diseases, if you got to the end of the curve, any new cases could be discovered and quarantined and contact tracing done to isolate people you might have infected.

With this virus, if there is significant asymptomatic spread (which is suspected but not proven yet), it won't be possible to isolate people that have it and can spread it without requiring the whole population to keep getting tested.

Even if we literally locked down for 2 weeks at the end of the curve to make sure nobody spread it to anybody, it is impossible to keep the borders locked down. Somebody (well, a lot more than one) will come through the southern border and likely some will be infected unless South America eradicates it at the same time.

It only took 6-8 weeks to go from no known cases to an epidemic. That is likely to happen again unless a lot more people than confirmed have already been infected with asymptomatic cases so there will be herd immunity to suppress the next curve.

 

[Tom P.]

The problem with this virus is the asymptomatic spread (to whatever extent it happens). If we social distance until 0 deaths per day and then open things back up like before there is bound to be another outbreak. With past pandemic diseases, if you got to the end of the curve, any new cases could be discovered and quarantined and contact tracing done to isolate people you might have infected.

With this virus, if there is significant asymptomatic spread (which is suspected but not proven yet), it won't be possible to isolate people that have it and can spread it without requiring the whole population to keep getting tested.

Even if we literally locked down for 2 weeks at the end of the curve to make sure nobody spread it to anybody, it is impossible to keep the borders locked down. Somebody (well, a lot more than one) will come through the southern border and likely some will be infected unless South America eradicates it at the same time.

It only took 6-8 weeks to go from no known cases to an epidemic. That is likely to happen again unless a lot more people than confirmed have already been infected with asymptomatic cases so there will be herd immunity to suppress the next curve.

There are a lot of unknowns here, and even the experts are predicting that we see another wave of it in the fall. I think there is a lot of hope that we will see some seasonality in COVID-19 just as with many other viruses, so that it will naturally not be as prevalent during the summer months. There is also some hope that even if we do see a recurrence, our medical system will be in a much better position to handle it, with the resources they need to not become overwhelmed. Improved and faster testing should help too. Plus, there is a lot of hope that a few months from now, we may have some better treatment options available that are proving effective, even if a vaccine is still a ways away.

 

[Slpy3270]

That is likely to happen again unless a lot more people than confirmed have already been infected with asymptomatic cases so there will be herd immunity to suppress the next curve.

That assumes the vaccine is long-lasting like the measles and tetanus vaccines, not short-term like flu vaccines.

 

[Slpy3270]

I think there is a lot of hope that we will see some seasonality in COVID-19 just as with many other viruses, so that it will naturally not be as prevalent during the summer months.

There's zero evidence to indicate temperature will affect the spread of the virus. In fact it's practically summer in Australia yet the virus is spreading rapidly.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

There are a lot of unknowns here, and even the experts are predicting that we see another wave of it in the fall. I think there is a lot of hope that we will see some seasonality in COVID-19 just as with many other viruses, so that it will naturally not be as prevalent during the summer months. There is also some hope that even if we do see a recurrence, our medical system will be in a much better position to handle it, with the resources they need to not become overwhelmed. Improved and faster testing should help too. Plus, there is a lot of hope that a few months from now, we may have some better treatment options available that are proving effective, even if a vaccine is still a ways away.

Not just all that you mentioned, but we also still don't know how many have actually already had it. If a large portion of the population has already had it and either weren't aware or only suffered (relatively speaking, of course) the milder side of symptoms, then we'll have better chances that a recurrence won't be as bad, provided that reinfection isn't able to occur too quickly.

 

[Tom P.]

There's zero evidence to indicate temperature will affect the spread of the virus. In fact it's practically summer in Australia yet the virus is spreading rapidly.

I am not referring to temperature. I am referring to the kind of seasonality we see with other viruses. The flu season, for example, tends to be the same months worldwide, regardless of whether it happens to be hot or cold. In most parts of the world, the flu is very minimal in July and in full force in March. Temperature doesn't seem to have anything to do with it. We could potentially see the same kind of seasonality with COVID-19. Many of the experts are hoping for such a trend.

 

[GoofGoof]

The problem with this virus is the asymptomatic spread (to whatever extent it happens). If we social distance until 0 deaths per day and then open things back up like before there is bound to be another outbreak. With past pandemic diseases, if you got to the end of the curve, any new cases could be discovered and quarantined and contact tracing done to isolate people you might have infected.

With this virus, if there is significant asymptomatic spread (which is suspected but not proven yet), it won't be possible to isolate people that have it and can spread it without requiring the whole population to keep getting tested.

Even if we literally locked down for 2 weeks at the end of the curve to make sure nobody spread it to anybody, it is impossible to keep the borders locked down. Somebody (well, a lot more than one) will come through the southern border and likely some will be infected unless South America eradicates it at the same time.

It only took 6-8 weeks to go from no known cases to an epidemic. That is likely to happen again unless a lot more people than confirmed have already been infected with asymptomatic cases so there will be herd immunity to suppress the next curve.

I am not even trying to predict anything based off that chart. I was just pointing out that was what Trump was referring to when talking about July/Aug. In reference to when the parks will open again I don’t think it will be that long either. Predicting second waves or future spread is pointless to the discussion. If there’s a large enough phase 2 the parks will likely go back to being closed Sad but true.

 

[celluloid]

Late July is my hope and shot in the dark guess. Probably too soon, but it will be after the Fourth of July Rush that could occur and will be a starting point.