Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Calling it: come summer when it becomes clear the curve won't be flattened due to refusal by citizens to comply with lockdown rules, Disney will preemptively file for bankruptcy and sell everything to vulture capitalists.

If the parks don’t re-open why would anyone want to buy them? If Disney was cash starved (which it isn’t) they would have to sell Hulu or something with immediate value. Selling shuttered theme parks with huge overhead costs and no cash coming in is a losing battle.

 

[DisneyCane]

That assumes the vaccine is long-lasting like the measles and tetanus vaccines, not short-term like flu vaccines.

I'm not taking about a vaccine and I am talking about short term.

 

[GoofGoof]

July 5th is my hope and shot in the dark guess. Probably too soon, but it will be after the Fourth of July Rush that could occur and will be a starting point.

Not a bad guess. I think Disney will also look to things like MLB, Vegas and concert venues. No way Disney wants to be the only one coming back too early. If lots of things open around the same time then you have less of a risk of getting accused of negligence if it turns out to be a bad idea.

 

[DisneyCane]

Not a bad guess. I think Disney will also look to things like MLB, Vegas and concert venues. No way Disney wants to be the only one coming back too early. If lots of things open around the same time then you have less of a risk of getting accused of negligence if it turns out to be a bad idea.

At the end of the day it all comes down to tort lawyers.

 

[Surferboy567]

Hey does anyone know the update on the 2020 FALL ADVANTAGE and FALL participants for the Disney College Program fue to the virus? I start in May and I haven’t heard a single thing! I’m so nervous, I really hope that I can still go on my program!

It is definitely going to get pushed or possibly even canceled. I’m a FA myself, but I don’t know if I’ll go or not accessing the situation. I want to, but health comes first.

 

[easyrowrdw]

In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies (Published 2020)

Weighing an idea that might once have been relegated to science fiction, Italy once again finds itself in the unfortunate vanguard of Western democracies grappling with the coronavirus.

www.nytimes.com

Wow. In effect, you wind punishing the people who did what they were supposed to do. The folks who stayed inside and didn't contract the virus are still going to be stuck inside.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm gonna guess Paris will open first. So far nothing on that front.

I’m honestly not sure when or IF Paris opens again? Not only are the finances a mess...but Europe was and still is the most susceptible to suffer more damage from this and has already been catastrophic so far.

I would have thought Hong Kong would be first but it looks like they are pulling back on allowing tourists in.

Shanghai first...because the state says what goes....I’d expect more caution in Hong Kong due to it have more eyes on it internationally.

France is getting hit and had multiple employees confirmed at the paris disney...Japan may be first?

It’s flashing now in Tokyo...they did an aggressive shutdown, now they screwed it up by releasing everyone too soon.

 

[MaryJaneP]

There might not be a vaccine then or ever and there may never be a guaranteed treatment, but maybe, given the time between now and any re-open date, plans and facilities will be expanded and/or created to handle a recurrence, if it happens. Perhaps one way to avoid overburdening the facilities/systems. Overwhelming the systems and a general lack of experience seem to be the current problems that much thought and response is being directed to fix.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It is definitely going to get pushed or possibly even canceled. I’m a FA myself, but I don’t know if I’ll go or not accessing the situation. I want to, but health comes first.

You are more wise than most in your situation...

You’re gonna see a lot of people on Disney forums saying full time employees will get callbacks over CPs...don’t believe it - it’s only partially true.
They will use CPs more than ever when this is over.

But in the short term: I’d say the summer is wrecked and there’s not much need to bring anyone in may 1.

On a side note...they brought kids in March 1st...let them stay for a couple of days and then kicked them out. Like hosts to be returned to all parts of the country and world. They got lucky.

That was Disney’s worst mismanagement of this so far...and just more evidence Florida is mismanaged. That should never have happened.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There might not be a vaccine then or ever and there may never be a guaranteed treatment, but maybe, given the time between now and any re-open date, plans and facilities will be expanded and/or created to handle a recurrence, if it happens. Perhaps one way to avoid overburdening the facilities/systems. Overwhelming the systems and a general lack of experience seem to be the current problems that much thought and response is being directed to fix.

Ok...this keeps coming up and will more moving forward:

If you’re talking about wdw...how in the hell are they going to retrofit them to handle disease precautions quickly?

Purell dispensers ain’t gonna cut it...I think this is the BIGGEST issue: it’s not gonna be “all clear” anytime soon...how do you open?

 

[easyrowrdw]

If the parks don’t re-open why would anyone want to buy them? If Disney was cash starved (which it isn’t) they would have to sell Hulu or something with immediate value. Selling shuttered theme parks with huge overhead costs and no cash coming in is a losing battle.

I'd buy that for a dollar!

 

[flynnibus]

But in this case, as in all others, the United States economy will recover and the stock market will rise again.

This is not like 'all others' in any sense or fashion.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Ok...this keeps coming up and will more moving forward:

If you’re talking about wdw...how in the hell are they going to retrofit them to handle disease precautions quickly?

Purell dispensers ain’t gonna cut it...I think this is the BIGGEST issue: it’s not gonna be “all clear” anytime soon...how do you open?

Maybe not possible to plan ahead, but if the plan is currently to flatten out the demand curve, there would seem to be steps that could help anticipate, reduce, and monitor the spread of this virus at WDW. One step could include absolutely everyone (Guests, CMs, CP, and all persons entering the property) gets tested. They practically have a magic band for everyone, maybe a rapid test too. Seems to have helped in South Korea and Germany. All guests have to pass thru tapstiles, maybe something there. FLIR or similar temperature sensitive imaging devices could supplement the CCTV security camera systems. Staggered seating and/or waiting. We never said it would be easy but we refuse to believe it will never be possible to re-open.

 

[Surferboy567]

You are more wise than most in your situation...

You’re gonna see a lot of people on Disney forums saying full time employees will get callbacks over CPs...don’t believe it - it’s only partially true.
They will use CPs more than ever when this is over.

But in the short term: I’d say the summer is wrecked and there’s not much need to bring anyone in may 1.

On a side note...they brought kids in March 1st...let them stay for a couple of days and then kicked them out. Like hosts to be returned to all parts of the country and world. They got lucky.

That was Disney’s worst mismanagement of this so far...and just more evidence Florida is mismanaged. That should never have happened.

I like to be realistic. I figured they would want cheap labor. Bringing more CP’s on is a good way to do that. As for me though, I’m really not sure what I’ll do. I wonder though, if they will cancel the program my gut says no but, as it gets worse and worse every day...the likelihood rises.

The thing about these forums is everyone in here are (mostly) realistic. If you talk like what I just did in the DCP discord you get lectured for being negative...like I said I don’t see it as negative but realistic.

Side Note: Their are still people CONVINCED April may still happen...I tried to say something but no avail.

 

[Chi84]

At the end of the day it all comes down to tort lawyers.

No that’s just wrong. I’ve read through some of your posts and you have some incredibly odd notions about the law.

 

[Tom P.]

This is not like 'all others' in any sense or fashion.

Unless you believe this is literally the end of the United States, which I do not, then the economy will recover. I have no doubt what-so-ever -- none -- that ten years from now the stock market will be at a higher level than it was before this year's downturn.

 

[SuddenStorm]

If they restrict the opening to on site guests only they could administer the Abbot fast test upon check in and prevent the bottleneck getting into the parks. Granted the parks would not be at full capacity but initially wouldn't that be best

That helps but it ignores the 30,000 employees. Guests are only half the equation.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Where is this happening, though? What states? I looked up New York, sounds like their state parks are still open. So who has closed everything and restricted to neighborhood walking ONLY?

I don't know about the state as a whole, but our county has. All parking lots and facilities (including restrooms, playgrounds, any structures) - are closed. People are allowed to walk the trails, but only if they can get to them without driving (there's 200+ miles of trails in the county). They've physically blocked the parking lots because so many people were coming that social distancing was impossible. And then people were parking on the street nearby and walking in - so they've had to clarify that we're not supposed to be driving to access a trail. If we can walk or bike to it, go ahead and use it - otherwise stick to local walking.

 

[flynnibus]

Unless you believe this is literally the end of the United States, which I do not, then the economy will recover. I have no doubt what-so-ever -- none -- that ten years from now the stock market will be at a higher level than it was before this year's downturn.

The government already basically broke most of the rules leading up to this and haven't gotten caught with their hand in the cookie jar when it comes to monetary policy on debt... but now here comes the haymaker on top of it where we basically will be trying to replace double digit GDP with 'free government money'. The entire US GDP in 2019 was 21 trillion... we basically printed up 10% of that in the OPENING ROUND... they are going to be forced back to that over and over and over in the coming 9-12 months. Literally the country's output is going to drop by 15% or more this quarter alone.. and will keep doing that. That is more than DOUBLE the worst drop in the 2008 recession and tops estimates of GDP failure that lead to the great depression. The great depression we eventually pulled out of after almost TEN YEARS by essentially forced government hiring and spending. The 2008 recession got steadied by the government breaking all the rules with the kinds of debt it took on. It can't do that again... that 'trick' has already been played.

The 'economy' is one thing... demand will come back to the market eventually... but that's not the stink in the closet. The stink here is the very foundation of what our unit of value is grounded in.. the US Government and the schemes it's backing of the dollar are based in.

It's way more complex than most citizens care to understand... they just think "our money is backed by our government". Just look at this eye-opener for people to understand how we basically borrow against ourselves - https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Our government has standing in the global economy based on complex concepts... and we're basically throwing all the limits into the firebox as the fed scrambles to try to prop things up. That isn't something that just 'goes away with time'. We've crossed into uncharted territory and it could be a whole new world order when the smoke clears.

They are doing the right thing 'right now' because its the only thing that really can be done... but reality is no one can really nail down what the consequences to the backing of the US dollar will be under these kinds of pressures. We've never been here... and 'fixing it' is not simply found by people starting to go out to the movies, or visiting Disneyworld.

 

[celluloid]

To bring this back into WDW related, at least a bit to be sure. Jungle Cruise was the last big July movie to be pushed back until next year like Ghostbusters and all the others have. So even if theaters reopen by July, there will not be a lot of money coming into the first run theaters.

Supposedly Mulan has taken Jungle Cruise's release date place.