Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Interesting downtick in the 11:00am Florida update. The daily infection rate is way down. 110 at 11 vs 6 - 700 in the days before. Why?

1. Maybe it is Sunday and few reports were processed so tomorrow will be more?
2. Maybe the reduced testing due to lack of test kits?
3. Maybe we see a huge increase at the 6pm update for the day?
4 Maybe it is working?
5. None of the above or all of the above and it is a fluke?

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Quite a difference at the PM update -

If you want a very in-depth look, here is the link to the latest full report -

https://floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/covid-19-data---daily-report-2020-03-29-1732.pdf

 

[Patcheslee]

Lots of logistics and training for CMs. There are going to be some physical changes like temporary queues to replace indoor queue space and changing the amount and location of tables in restaurants. That shouldn’t take long to implement but the CM training could be a few weeks depending on how extreme the new social distancing processes are.

The downfall to fewer tables would definitely be the number of CMs needed in each restaurant. Queues might be a little harder to control with FP and wonder if the availability is going to be reduced, we are slightly over 60 days till June 1st so that could be done without pulling most ppls current FP bookings. Depending how extreme the requirements get it could be a nightmare for ride CMs. I definitely wouldn't want to see them having to wipe down seats every X number of cycles just to operate considering the extra stress they would be dealing with.

 

[Polynesia]

I wonder how long it would take to prepare MK only to open (fully operational) on June 1st?

There’s been speculation if they’ll open all the parks. The magic kingdom is a given of course. But I also think Studios will open right away. Star Wars Land is very popular and they’ve already got a virtual que for Rise of the Resistance. Supposedly the virus is less transferable in the heat. That would make a ride like Slinky Dog possible. Just my thoughts.

 

[Calmdownnow]

We’re all going to be pretty ****gy or gray (in my case).

Part of my prep purchasing was a home hair dye kit -- but I intend to save it until the very last week of the lock-down so that I can emerge rejuvenated like a phoenix. Or, if the worst happens and I don't make the grade, my will will specify which of my female relatives shall receive it as a bequest. This gives them all an incentive to be super nice to me in the coming weeks.

 

[GoofGoof]

There’s been speculation if they’ll open all the parks. The magic kingdom is a given of course. But I also think Studios will open right away. Star Wars Land is very popular and they’ve already got a virtual que for Rise of the Resistance. Supposedly the virus is less transferable in the heat. That would make a ride like Slinky Dog possible. Just my thoughts.

I hope you are right about the heat...I’ll be completely safe there in August

 

[GhostHost1000]

Would you still go if it’s the first day re-opened? I think I’d be on the fence.

I really don’t know what to think right now. Just so many unknowns. I’m about 70-30 in favor of cancelling but we’ll see

 

[GoofGoof]

The downfall to fewer tables would definitely be the number of CMs needed in each restaurant. Queues might be a little harder to control with FP and wonder if the availability is going to be reduced, we are slightly over 60 days till June 1st so that could be done without pulling most ppls current FP bookings. Depending how extreme the requirements get it could be a nightmare for ride CMs. I definitely wouldn't want to see them having to wipe down seats every X number of cycles just to operate considering the extra stress they would be dealing with.

Could be a virtual queue system setup for most popular rides without an outdoor queue (which in FL is just about all rides, more outdoor queues at DLR). For dining they may have availability issues for smaller restaurants with half as many tables. The larger places should be OK. Transport will be dicey. Half full buses, monorail cars and boats may be the norm...along with longer lines. Rental car companies may make out OK if that’s the case.

 

[JohnD]

There’s been speculation if they’ll open all the parks. The magic kingdom is a given of course. But I also think Studios will open right away. Star Wars Land is very popular and they’ve already got a virtual que for Rise of the Resistance. Supposedly the virus is less transferable in the heat. That would make a ride like Slinky Dog possible. Just my thoughts.

The park that could afford to close is Epcot. They sent home the international CMs anyway and its radically under construction. Just close it and ramp up construction without the "interference" (no offense) of guests during the day. They could make up for lost time.

 

[TrojanUSC]

The park that could afford to close is Epcot. They sent home the international CMs anyway and its radically under construction. Just close it and ramp up construction without the "interference" (no offense) of guests during the day. They could make up for lost time.

Bit of a misunderstanding. They sent home international CPs, but did not send home the cultural representatives, who are on year-long contracts and who make up a large portion of the Epcot WS cast. Takes a long time for the visa processing and whatnot, so it was easier for them to leave them.

 

[RobWDW1971]

The park that could afford to close is Epcot. They sent home the international CMs anyway and its radically under construction. Just close it and ramp up construction without the "interference" (no offense) of guests during the day. They could make up for lost time.

Fully on board with this - would be a huge financial blow, but if they need to reduce capacity in the short-term and they can go full steam on the construction, this makes a lot of sense. The guest experience now with Future World (or whatever the name is now) torn apart and navigating the construction walls is not positive.

 

[LAKid53]

Most people by June would’ve gotten the virus and therefore developed immunity. Can anyone confirm this? I’m just making a guess

Here's a good article on that. Note at least 60% need to be infected with the virus in order for herd immunity to take effect. And if the virus mutates from year to year, as influenza viruses do, then your immunity is short lived.

Doctor’s Note: Can herd immunity solve coronavirus?

A doctor explains what herd immunity is, how it works and whether it could help in the fight against COVID-19.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Lilofan]

The downfall to fewer tables would definitely be the number of CMs needed in each restaurant. Queues might be a little harder to control with FP and wonder if the availability is going to be reduced, we are slightly over 60 days till June 1st so that could be done without pulling most ppls current FP bookings. Depending how extreme the requirements get it could be a nightmare for ride CMs. I definitely wouldn't want to see them having to wipe down seats every X number of cycles just to operate considering the extra stress they would be dealing with.

In regards to wiping down to disinfect and clean, it is an impossible task to wipe down every toilet seat after each male and female guests use them. The cloth seats in the interior theatres cannot be wiped down effectively either since each show starts as soon as a show ends. Also some of the theatre seats are made of fabric so the germs and body oil of the guests are absorbed into the seats.

 

[rk03221]

Here's a good article on that. Note at least 60% need to be infected with the virus in order for herd immunity to take effect. And if the virus mutates from year to year, as influenza viruses do, then your immunity is short lived.

Doctor’s Note: Can herd immunity solve coronavirus?

A doctor explains what herd immunity is, how it works and whether it could help in the fight against COVID-19.

www.aljazeera.com

I Believe some countries in Europe are trying this like Netherlands and Sweden

 

[LAKid53]

I Believe some countries in Europe are trying this like Netherlands and Sweden

UK backed away from "herd immunity" when the PM realized no one had immunity to a new virus.

 

[willtravel]

John Hopkins estimates anywhere between 50,000-500,000 people were already infected before this was brought to light and testing started. Still along way from your 160M. Thanks for the information

Don't mean to be morbid, but if that many people so far have been infected (world wide?) I wonder how many have died from it then undetected as this virus? Do they do autopsies on everyone who dies?

 

[ifan]

One of the models that the White House (Dr. Birx) referred to today was by Dr. Murray at IHME (I've linked to it in a previous post.)

It shows the country peaking in about two weeks on average - but it shows Florida with one of the absolute oddest curves in the country. Florida's estimated resource usage peak is MAY 14 (a full month after the national average.) The shape of the curve looks a lot flatter than other states. It estimates that Florida will have 3,342 deaths between now and August (all the way up to 9k in worst case scenarios, but seems highly unlikely.)

Very odd. The model is from March 24th and isn't perfect but has been very accurate nationwide - and with some of the states I've been tracking. For Florida it seems to be about a day behind in its estimates.

 

[Nunu]

Also some of the theatre seats are made of fabric so the germs and body oil of the guests are absorbed into the seats.

Yep, and since it's Florida, people sitting on those chairs, wear shorts almost all year round...

 

[21stamps]

Don't mean to be morbid, but if that many people so far have been infected (world wide?) I wonder how many have died from it then undetected as this virus? Do they do autopsies on everyone who dies?

I think anyone who enters the hospital with a respiratory issue, would be tested right now, or assumed positive if negative for other things.

 

[Patcheslee]

Don't mean to be morbid, but if that many people so far have been infected (world wide?) I wonder how many have died from it then undetected as this virus? Do they do autopsies on everyone who dies?

I there's specific CDC guidelines for handling the deceased, it was mentioned in a Fox59 article about hospitals having extra refrigerated trucks on standby.

 

[MisterPenguin]

One of the models that the White House (Dr. Birx) referred to today was by Dr. Murray at IHME (I've linked to it in a previous post.)

It shows the country peaking in about two weeks on average - but it shows Florida with one of the absolute oddest curves in the country. Florida's estimated resource usage peak is MAY 14 (a full month after the national average.) The shape of the curve looks a lot flatter than other states. It estimates that Florida will have 3,342 deaths between now and August (all the way up to 9k in worst case scenarios, but seems highly unlikely.)

Very odd. The model is from March 24th and isn't perfect but has been very accurate nationwide - and with some of the states I've been tracking. For Florida it seems to be about a day behind in its estimates.

Yeah, they don't update their model. On March 24, they projected FL would have 37 total deaths by Mar 28. Well, here were are on Mar 28 and FL has 60 deaths.

I'm sure an update of the model would move the peak out of May and into April in line with the country and most other states.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org