Tom P.
Well-Known Member
No, I think it definitely gets dropped this time.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
I hope not.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
Oh, NOW we're allowed to suggest that the CDC is not infallible and might just possibly not be a totally "follow the science" organization? Interesting.
mikejs78
Premium Member
Such as...?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
It didn’t take off as fast here either. So ideas are we will either very delayed in getting increases even though it started in Feb most places or....
Reality is it didn’t impact numbers here the same as UK or some parts of Europe. I have read that BA.2 might be less due to our crazy high BA.1 numbers and stronger immunity from it thanks to our huge increaes. No matter what we saw less stress here on hospitals in Jan than we did previously locally. Definitely no matter seeing totally different outcomes for different regions of the world.
I'm also not a believer it will linger at scary levels forever. So there is that too.
It would take a ton to bring it back universally IMO.
Roy G. Dis
Well-Known Member
I know Omicron felt like everyone was getting Covid, but there's still plenty of Americans out there who weren't vaccinated, won't get vaccinated, and haven't gotten Covid. Dry kindling for this more transmissible subvariant. That being said I think America got hit so dang hard between Dec and Feb that it would take something besides Omicron BA.2 to make hospitalizations and therefore masking policies change again.
mikejs78
Premium Member
I've questioned several aspects of the CDC response all along when it didn't match with the data. There have been incidents all along, but I general they've gotten it right, albeit with some missteps along the way.
Now they have just upended everything without supplying the data to justify it. That's the difference.
mikejs78
Premium Member
I'm not so sure. Most epidemiologists I follow are saying that if we do get a surge, or a bump, it will likely manifest in early April. Too soon to tell.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Makes little sense to me tbh. If you want to do the 2-3 weeks past UK we once followed that ship has sailed. We've has BA.2 for 1.5-2 months now in most places. Could be timing of each here did what it did. There's no normal curve now IMO we can follow. It will be what it will be for sure, but people are just guessing at best now. I never was one to fear what could be though.
mikejs78
Premium Member
Hasn't been 2-3 weeks historically. Has been more like 4-6 weeks (alpha/Delta waves). It was 2-3 weeks for Omicron. And in countries where it surged, it started surging when prevalence of BA.2 climbed to > 50%. It may not surge here - that's certainly in the realm of possibility. But to assert that it won't is more wishful thinking than based on any evidence.
Anticipating something and being prepared for it is not fear. It's being prudent.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
As a country? Sure. But we would already be seeing a serious spike in the Northeast if we were following the December trajectory. NYC was jam-packed when I went there last week. BA.2 has been there awhile and is likely the dominant strain (it certainly will be at some point this week if it isn’t already). And yet…
TV Epidemiologists like to talk but I’m not hearing much concern from the folks running hospitals around here. Just waiting for golf season.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
It's been a month for UKs up ticks. I doubt we would follow 4-6 weeks when omicron was 2-4 especially given arrival times. BA.2 arrived in the US end of Jan. It was spreading in UK and Denmark then. Denmark removed masks as it was spreading and is dropping still. UK went on a different route. That was early Feb. We were beinf hit with Delta and omicron badly at the same time locally. Omicron took over and cases soared. Even in NY the abrupt increase the UK and parts of Europe saw is not happening where BA.2 is most common. Unlike BA.1 BA.2 didn't take over in weeks too. Nothing is easy to guess rifht now. We just have to adapt as needed.
I have masks I can use if we need. I will do any further shots my trial requests of me. That's prudent. Waiting for the shoe to drop is fear, not being prudent.
What other parts of the CDC response do you feel they have gotten wrong?
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ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
I do think there is risk that BA.2 will spread more in areas with lower vaccination rates once it gets there. It is currently most prevalent in areas of the US with the highest vaccination and booster rates which also just had a BA.1 spike. The level of immunity right now in places like NYC is very high. I doubt we will see much up here for several months (new variant, presumably). If cases increase rapidly in Alabama, I doubt Alabama will care. And states like NY are done imposing restrictions over something happening in Alabama.
Not sure what the CDC would do, however. No one seems to be listening to them anymore, anyway. The federal government should really focus their efforts on approving vaccines for kids and acquiring more drug treatments for Covid.
mikejs78
Premium Member
We will see, I hope you're right. But, wastewater (which has been a good leading indicator) is creeping up in parts of the northeast.
I don't think we know what will happen - but I do think that it's as likely to surge as it is not to. As much as anyone wants to predict, we don't have examples yet of surges in the UK that didn't materialize here.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Well, just to give one example...the UK never bottomed out on omicron cases before going back up.
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mikejs78
Premium Member
100% this. Paxlovid for anyone who wants it, vaccines for anyone who wants it. Then I'm good.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Yes, it is creeping up, but we need to use the proper lens (and, “it has increased 42% over last week” isn’t that). Where I love, Yale reports wastewater levels daily. Compare what we are seeing to Christmas:
You can barely see the increase.
Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
Miami's largest hospital system:
Lowest case # there since reports began.
Here's some direct data for wastewater
biobot.io
Miamidade.gov also has reports. CDC has a wastewater page but there's a lot of data errors in it, so local sites are more accurate. Some going up in the NE, but not alarmingly so like in December.
Missouri has the head of the group testing wastewater updating on twitter
Lowest case # there since reports began.
Here's some direct data for wastewater
Biobot's Wastewater Data and Wastewater Intelligence Platform
Our wastewater intelligence platform monitors concentrations of both pathogens and chemicals in wastewater from across the U.S.
biobot.io
Miamidade.gov also has reports. CDC has a wastewater page but there's a lot of data errors in it, so local sites are more accurate. Some going up in the NE, but not alarmingly so like in December.
Missouri has the head of the group testing wastewater updating on twitter
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